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Expectations...

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  • Expectations...

    So I think it's safe to say we have our roster barring something completely unforeseen coming along.

    C. Turner/Bitadze/Brimah
    PF. Sabonis/Leaf/Johnson
    SF. Warren/McDermott/Holiday
    SG. Oladipo/Lamb/Sumner
    PG. Brogdon/Holiday/McConnell

    There is every chance in the world that we don't have a single player average 20ppg this season & that is in no way a bad thing. I really think that defensively is where we will do the majority of our work, especially with Brogdon, Oladipo & Turner.
    Statistically I see things shaking out a little something like this:
    Myles Turner - 14ppg/8rpg/2apg/3bpg
    Domantas Sabonis - 16ppg/12rpg/4apg
    TJ Warren - 14ppg/4rpg/1apg
    Victor Oladipo - 18ppg/6rpg/4apg/2spg
    Malcolm Brogdon - 16ppg/4rpg/6apg

    Jeremy Lamb - 10ppg/4rpg/2apg
    TJ Leaf - 6ppg/4rpg
    Aaron Holiday - 6ppg/2rpg/2apg
    Doug McDermott - 5ppg/2rpg
    Goga Bitadze - 4ppg/4rpg/1bpg

    McConnell, Sumner & Johnson I think we see rounding out the 13-man bench once Victor is back.
    If our guys put up these kind of numbers that'll make us 109ppg which is 1 point higher than what we put up last year. The average last season was about 111ppg, so we could see a little more than that.

    My biggest question mark is over Sabonis, as I truly think if he can develop that outside jumper he can become a very good scorer/offensive player. I also wouldn't mind seeing us move McDermott & going with both McConnell & Holiday in our 10-man rotation. McConnell is truly capable of running an offense, while Holiday is more of a scoring guard.

    As for how we will go this season, I think we will be battling for anywhere from 4th to 7th seed. I think Philadelphia, Milwaukee & Boston will be the teams that come out ahead of us then we will be scrapping it out with Brooklyn, Orlando & Detroit.

    How do you see the season shaking out for us?
    Last edited by festar35; 07-20-2019, 11:42 PM.

  • #2
    I don't think much about that kind of a traditional listing per position as this is "positionless" era of basketball and teams really only run 7 / 8 / max 9 players when chips are down.

    Personally I would like us to start the season with these guys in rotation (Starters in bold) :

    McConnell (pure point guard)
    Aaron Holiday (backup combo)
    Brogdon (starts at point guard, but plays a lot at 2 and even as forward due to being our best stopper against strong forwards)
    Lamb (switches between 2 & 3)
    Justin Holiday (gets Lamb's rest minutes. IS ALLOWED to challenge for starting duty - who produces, he plays)
    T.J. Warren (starts at 3, but plays a lot at 4)
    Sabonis (starts at 4, but also anchors small-ball units as a playmaking center)
    Myles Turner (starter at 5)
    Bitadze (learner minutes at 5)

    When Oladipo returns, one of McConnell/Aaron/Justin/Lamb will lose his spot. Let court prove whom (not salary scale).

    IF Oladipo returns to "full powers" then another one of the previous quartet will also lose his spot...

    While we will be starting a "big line-up", I really hope we will give time for small 3-guard and even (after Dipo is back) 4-guard line-ups!

    I want us to test :

    A. Holiday - Brogdon - Lamb - Warren - Turner
    A. Holiday - Brogdon - Lamb - Warren - Sabonis
    the previous with McConnell instead of Aaron.
    the previous with Justin instead of Lamb

    ...and eventually also :
    McConnell / Aaron
    Oladipo
    Lamb / Justin
    Brogdon (yes, Brogdon at 4)
    Sabonis


    I don't want to see Leaf nor McDermott in a rotation. They were mistakes and now it is a time to count your losses.



    We will win at least 43 games, but given the sorry state of the East - a good health & team morale may even purchase us into 50-win category.

    There is only two elite teams in the East this year. Philly & Bucks WAAYYYY above the rest. 3rd spot is up to grabs. OTOH, if things do NOT work out - Boston/Toronto/Orlando/Miami/Atlanta (those youngsters started to click late last season) are all something to worry about. Brooklyn will likely be ******. No Durant. Kyrie is a career loser & team destroyer. He is a big negative as THE MAN. They have probably also painted themselves in a corner where they have to play DeAndre ahead of Jarrett Allen. That move costs you roughly 10 extra losses per season too.


    Worries :

    We do have a versatile squad, but we don't have a versatile coach. If we indeed use our team in a "position-cemented" way, there will be huge defensive issues in forward. Brogdon is likely our best stopper at both 3 and 4. If he is steadfastly used as a point guard only, we will really haemorrhage defensively.

    Sabonis' engine worries me. Even as a limited minutes -backup, he has tended to run out of gas every season (including in OKC). Now - if he is supposed to play 30+ minutes while chasing 4s around the court = I see him having a good spell from around game 10 until mid-season and then being absolute rubbish ever since due to wearing out. A semi-serious injury (missing some 15 games) might be the only way to save some "ooomph" for play-offs with Sabo.

    I don't think team sees McDermott/Leaf as unplayable. Sadly. Their minutes will be cringeworthy to see again. Defense still wins (or loses, in this case).

    Comment


    • #3
      I think it's really hard to predict where this team will end up, since we have so many new players. Our lineup is going to be very young, with ages between 22-26, guys are still developing. I hope at least one of them manages to develop into a legit star, but it's also inevitable that some of them will end up as busts. I'm afraid we're going to see some very frustrating moments from time to time, I know "veteran presence" is sometimes blown out of proportion but I wish our guys had someone like Young or Bojan to guide them. We need to be patient with this team, the players and coach.

      Of course there is also the Oladipo question. Are we going to get last year's Dipo or the breakout Dipo from two years ago or some washed up injured Dipo? That's a really big question which will ultimately determine whether this team ends up on the 7th-9th spot with another bad draft pick and zero postseason, or 3rd-5th seed with a potential for a good playoffs run. We'll see.
      Originally posted by Piston Prince
      Bobcat fans telling us to cheer up = epic fail season
      "Josh Smith Re-building the city of Detroit one brick at a time"

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by festar35 View Post
        Statistically I see things shaking out a little something like this:
        Myles Turner - 14ppg/8rpg/2apg/3bpg
        Domantas Sabonis - 16ppg/12rpg/4apg
        TJ Warren - 14ppg/4rpg/1apg
        Victor Oladipo - 18ppg/6rpg/4apg/2spg
        Malcolm Brogdon - 16ppg/4rpg/6apg

        Jeremy Lamb - 10ppg/4rpg/2apg
        TJ Leaf - 6ppg/4rpg
        Aaron Holiday - 6ppg/2rpg/2apg
        Doug McDermott - 5ppg/2rpg
        Goga Bitadze - 4ppg/4rpg/1bpg

        McConnell, Sumner & Johnson I think we see rounding out the 13-man bench once Victor is back.
        If our guys put up these kind of numbers that'll make us 109ppg which is 1 point higher than what we put up last year. The average last season was about 111ppg, so we could see a little more than that.
        Given that Oladipo is likely to miss, what 30? 40? games, you need to add some 9 ppg to other player's combined totals to reach 109 ppg for a team. Add other injuries to team which account for another 40 missed games (our core minus Dipo missed a total of 37 games last season) and you have to add another combined 5 ppg to those averages to reach 109 ppg for a team.

        As a comparison - last year's team (not counting the fringe guys Alize, Davon Reed, Sumner nor late-season acquisition of Wes) totalled about 127 ppg if you just add together everyone's per game averages.

        Last edited by PetPaima; 07-21-2019, 07:04 AM.

        Comment


        • #5
          I see us at .500 until Dipo is ready. Then, we ramp up through the playoffs at .650. 48 wins. Minimum 2nd round, but possibly much more depending on how quickly we gel.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by yoadknux View Post

            Of course there is also the Oladipo question. Are we going to get last year's Dipo or the breakout Dipo from two years ago or some washed up injured Dipo?
            About two years ago I made a post just rhapsodizing on Oladipo's quickness and athleticism, noting that his style of play was conducive to injury, and encouraged everyone to just sit back and enjoy what you're seeing for the moment. Because it may not be with us for long.
            "Look, it's up to me to put a team around ... Lance right now." —Kevin Pritchard press conference

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by PetPaima View Post

              I don't think team sees McDermott/Leaf as unplayable. Sadly. Their minutes will be cringeworthy to see again. Defense still wins (or loses, in this case).
              McDermott held his man to lower shooting percentages than Bogey last year and the team was BETTER DEFENSIVELY when Doug was ON THE FLOOR than it was when he was off it. He didn't have the benefit of the leagues best shot blocker backing him up either like Bogey did. I'm not saying he was good defensively because he wasn't, but we were top 3 defensively with him in the rotation and in the 20's offensively. Pulling one our most efficient offensive players from the rotation is just nonsensical unless your replacing him with a guy that makes the offense better. J. Holiday ain't that guy.

              And Leaf held his opponent to 41% EFG last year. That's really good.



              http://www.82games.com/1819/18IND12.HTM

              http://www.82games.com/1819/18IND15.HTM

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by PetPaima View Post
                I don't think team sees McDermott/Leaf as unplayable. Sadly. Their minutes will be cringeworthy to see again. Defense still wins (or loses, in this case).
                Not only do they not see them as unplayable, they shouldn't. That sentiment is only amongst the yokels here on PD. Leaf is going to be a fine rotational player, and McDermott was nowhere near as bad as y'all belly-ache about. I don't even really know where all of this hate comes from, it's stupid.
                There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by McKeyFan View Post
                  About two years ago I made a post just rhapsodizing on Oladipo's quickness and athleticism, noting that his style of play was conducive to injury, and encouraged everyone to just sit back and enjoy what you're seeing for the moment. Because it may not be with us for long.
                  I here ya on that one, I also questioned if he'd be able to continue that style of play. It doesn't generally bode well to play like that... DRose, John Wall, and now Oladipo all were of the same type of "explosive" small guards who tore their legs up. The only guy who's been able to continue it is Westbrook, who's just a freak of nature.

                  However, I now predict that Oladipo adapts. I expect we'll see a guy who relies less on his athleticism, and starts to play a little closer to the ground, work off the ball, come off screens, and use his leverage and change of direction to create space instead of just constantly exploding past the defense.
                  Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 07-21-2019, 01:47 PM.
                  There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post



                    However, I now predict that Oladipo adapts. I expect we'll see a guy who relies less on his athleticism, and starts to play a little closer to the ground, work off the ball, come off screens, and use his leverage and change of direction to create space instead of just constantly exploding past the defense.
                    Didn't Michael Jordan make a similar change after a knee injury?
                    "Look, it's up to me to put a team around ... Lance right now." —Kevin Pritchard press conference

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I'm not confident in Leaf at all. I'd love for us to move him and McDermott for Covington or Crowder.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by McKeyFan View Post

                        Didn't Michael Jordan make a similar change after a knee injury?
                        Jordan adapted to playing a smarter style of game fairly early in his career. He started shooting more 3's and getting team mates involved instead of constantly going to the rack. I don't recall a knee issue, just title after title.
                        Vnzla81: Yep pretty much, they cut him because they were going to get "their guy" they couldn't get option 1,2,3,4,5 then they went to Lance he said "no thanks" and they had no other choice but to get Lance 2.0 for three times the cost.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by McKeyFan View Post

                          Didn't Michael Jordan make a similar change after a knee injury?
                          He broke his foot in his second season, that was the only major injury I can recall.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by McKeyFan View Post

                            Didn't Michael Jordan make a similar change after a knee injury?
                            As said, there was the foot injury very early... and then in his final season or two 'old' Jordan simply had knee problems. Swelling... fluid draining... icing...
                            But I don't recall a knee injury per se'. At least not one that required surgery and rehab.
                            Nuntius was right for a while. I was wrong for a while. But ultimately I was right and Frank Vogel has been let go.

                            ------

                            "A player who makes a team great is more valuable than a great player. Losing yourself in the group, for the good of the group, that’s teamwork."

                            -John Wooden

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I'm going into things excited to watch the new guys and some of the new wrinkles, such as Domas/Myles both starting, etc. But, I am tempering expectations. We definitely seem like a playoff team, especially in the East. I would be very surprised to land a top 4 seed though. Maybe something more like 6-8.

                              My reasoning is that there's so much roster turnover to incorporate, Dipo missing a lot of games and even then needing to round into form upon return, and significant questions like can Myles/Domas work together, can McMillan stand to let it play out and manage the talent well otherwise, will the bench be strong enough, and so forth.

                              Yes, if absolutely everything played out exactly right, we could snag a top four seed. But there are so many variable this year, I'm not going to expect that. Take it if it comes, but not count on it. Given Dipo's status, I think it's more likely this is a year where hopefully we set a foundation for a more legitimate run at a higher seed the following season.
                              I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

                              -Emiliano Zapata

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