Will this be the year a blind squirrel finds a nut? Stay tuned!!!
For those of you who were not around before 2011, allow me to provide a little background. Iโve started this thread 3 times in the past and failed every time BUT the third year we did make the playoffs. This is not a magic number thread for the playoffs. Itโs simply a tool to represent a path the team can follow to finish the season at .500. Why .500? I think we all agree .500 isnโt necessarily a record to celebrate but to me it represents not losing. Itโs not winning either but at least we can say we did not have a losing season. Winning fosters a winning environment. If we finish .500 this year it will mark 4 straight years without a losing record. Based on where this team was 8 years ago, Iโll take 4 straight years of building a winning culture all day every day.
A reason for hope:
Injuries. After missing only 78 games to injury last year, the Pacers have far surpassed that number in just half a season this year. Even excluding Paul George, I donโt think we have once fielded a team at full strength in any game this year. The handful of games George Hill played, we were without Mahinmi. If the team can ever get to full strength, I think weโll see a lot of these close games start to go in our favor.
Speaking of close games, weโre 2-9 in games decided by 3 points or less. Three of those losses came via game winners by the other team. 11 games decided by 3 points or less is tops in the league. If we could have just split those close games, it raises our record 18-23. Thatโs good enough for 7th in East right now. I donโt think weโre as bad as our record indicates.
Now for some schedule analysis:
Our second half schedule will lend itself very nicely to making a run toward .500. For starters, we played more road games in the first half (22) than home games (19). Also consider that we are starting the second half of the season off on a 5 game road trip. This means that 22 of our final 36 games will be played in the much friendlier confines of the Fieldhouse where we managed an 8-11 record in the first half vs 7-15 on the road.
To start the season, we played 41 games in 80 days. That averages out to more than 1 game every 2 days. The rest of the way is quite a bit easier. We have 89 days to get the remaining 41 games in. We also only have 6 back to backs in the second half of the season. We had 11 in the first half. Our record was 4-7 in such games for the first half.
Weโll also be right in the sweet spot for days of rest between games in the second half. For the first half of the year we were 9-11 in games played with one day of rest between (the best result of any days of rest scenario). The majority of our second half games (28) will be played with 1 day of rest in between. For whatever reason we are abysmal with more than 1 day of rest between games at 1-7. This is third worst in the league behind only Philly and Orlando. We have 5 games with 2 days rest, 1 game with 3 days rest, and 1 game with 8 days rest (all-star break).
Perhaps the biggest advantage in the schedule will be the much more efficient travel in the second half of the year. For the 2014-2015season, the Pacers will travel approximately 41,889 miles. Weโve already traveled roughly 26,200 miles of that in the first half. City to city flight distance in the second half will reach about 15,600 miles with our longest flight being from New Orleans to Philly (~1100 miles). Donโt underestimate the impact of having 2 hour or less flights from here on out.
Now for the schedule break down. What Iโve done in the past was break the teams into groups based on how many more times we play each team. Once these groups are established, I determine what record I think weโll need vs each group to end the season at .500. Team listed below with (Home/Away) next to each.
Group A
Teams we play once more:
Atlanta (A)
Dallas (H)
Golden State (H)
Memphis (A)
New Orleans (A)
Sacramento (H)
San Antonio (H)
Talk about a nightmare group. Thankfully we only play these teams once. Fortunately as well, we have most of these games at home which might be enough of an advantage for us to sneak out 3 games in this group. An extra win or two would really give us some leeway in Group B though.
Group B
Teams we play twice more:
Boston (H,A)
Brooklyn (H,A)
Chicago (H,A)
Detroit (H,A)
Houston (A,H)
Miami (A,H)
Milwaukee (H,A)
Oklahoma City (A,H)
Orlando (A,H)
Philadelphia (A,H)
Toronto (A,H)
Washington (A,H)
This group is where our season will be made or lost. 4 teams are well above .500, 2 are hovering around .500, and the rest have played within a couple games of us. All of these games are split neatly 1 home 1 away. To achieve .500, I feel as though weโll need to win 3 out of every 4 games vs the teams with a similar record as us or near .500, and at least split the games vs teams well above .500. This leaves us with an ambitious 16-8 record for this group. Iโd feel more comfortable going with 14-10 here but I just donโt see where those 2 other wins would come from in the other groups.
Group C
Teams we play thrice more:
Charlotte (A,A,H)
Cleveland (H,H,A)
This group can be Jekyll and Hyde for us. I could see us taking five of the six or losing five of the six. Because of this, Iโm gonna split it right up the middle and say 3 wins, 3 losses. If we can protect home floor this shouldnโt be too much to ask.
Group D
Teams we play 4 times:
New York (H,H,A,A)
Thereโs no question about it. The fact that we play New York 4 times in our final 35 games is an advantage no other team in the league is afforded. We must not squander this opportunity. 4 wins.
Second half predictions:
1) We will make the playoffs.
2) I think PG will play this year. IIRC, the original prognosis on PG was best case 6-9 months out. I know he wonโt be back in just 6 months as thatโs only a couple weeks away. I could see him back somewhere around the 7.5-8 month mark though. No two people are alike but the closest example I can draw from was the 220 days it took Kevin Ware to get back into an NCAA game. The same sort of time frame for PG would be around March 10th at home vs Orlando. Based on the limited glimpses weโve had from him and my highly unscientific assessment, I think heโll make his official debut on Sunday, March 29 at home vs Dallas. This gives 10 games left in the season to tune up for the playoffs.
3) I could see us ripping off an 8 game win streak to start out March. We play 8 of 9 at home vs mainly mediocre clubs and the lone road game is at New York.
4) Pacers extend streak of most consecutive seasons without a losing record on the home floor.
5) And finally in case anyone is curious, here is my individual game predicted win cycle for the rest of the year. Iโve based this off of days of rest between games, the opponent, home vs away, PG returning, and the inevitable late season gimmeโs from other teams tanking or resting starters:
W(2L)2W(L)3W(2L)W(L)W(2L)3W(L)4W(3L)2W(L)W(L)5W(L) 3W
Letโs get this bad boy kicked off. A win in Charlotte could jump start us to over-achieving in*Group C.
Group A (0-0)
Atlanta (A) Dallas (H) Golden State (H) Memphis (A) New Orleans (A) Sacramento (H) San Antonio (H)
Prediction: (3-4)
Group B (0-0)
Boston (H,A) Brooklyn (H,A) Chicago (H,A) Detroit (H,A) Houston (A,H) Miami (A,H) Milwaukee (H,A) Oklahoma City (A,H) Orlando (A,H) Philadelphia (A,H) Toronto (A,H) Washington (A,H)
Prediction: (16-8)
Group C (0-0)
Charlotte (A,A,H) Cleveland (H,H,A)
Prediction: (3-3)
Group D (0-0)
New York (H,H,A,A)
Prediction: (4-0)
For those of you who were not around before 2011, allow me to provide a little background. Iโve started this thread 3 times in the past and failed every time BUT the third year we did make the playoffs. This is not a magic number thread for the playoffs. Itโs simply a tool to represent a path the team can follow to finish the season at .500. Why .500? I think we all agree .500 isnโt necessarily a record to celebrate but to me it represents not losing. Itโs not winning either but at least we can say we did not have a losing season. Winning fosters a winning environment. If we finish .500 this year it will mark 4 straight years without a losing record. Based on where this team was 8 years ago, Iโll take 4 straight years of building a winning culture all day every day.
A reason for hope:
Injuries. After missing only 78 games to injury last year, the Pacers have far surpassed that number in just half a season this year. Even excluding Paul George, I donโt think we have once fielded a team at full strength in any game this year. The handful of games George Hill played, we were without Mahinmi. If the team can ever get to full strength, I think weโll see a lot of these close games start to go in our favor.
Speaking of close games, weโre 2-9 in games decided by 3 points or less. Three of those losses came via game winners by the other team. 11 games decided by 3 points or less is tops in the league. If we could have just split those close games, it raises our record 18-23. Thatโs good enough for 7th in East right now. I donโt think weโre as bad as our record indicates.
Now for some schedule analysis:
Our second half schedule will lend itself very nicely to making a run toward .500. For starters, we played more road games in the first half (22) than home games (19). Also consider that we are starting the second half of the season off on a 5 game road trip. This means that 22 of our final 36 games will be played in the much friendlier confines of the Fieldhouse where we managed an 8-11 record in the first half vs 7-15 on the road.
To start the season, we played 41 games in 80 days. That averages out to more than 1 game every 2 days. The rest of the way is quite a bit easier. We have 89 days to get the remaining 41 games in. We also only have 6 back to backs in the second half of the season. We had 11 in the first half. Our record was 4-7 in such games for the first half.
Weโll also be right in the sweet spot for days of rest between games in the second half. For the first half of the year we were 9-11 in games played with one day of rest between (the best result of any days of rest scenario). The majority of our second half games (28) will be played with 1 day of rest in between. For whatever reason we are abysmal with more than 1 day of rest between games at 1-7. This is third worst in the league behind only Philly and Orlando. We have 5 games with 2 days rest, 1 game with 3 days rest, and 1 game with 8 days rest (all-star break).
Perhaps the biggest advantage in the schedule will be the much more efficient travel in the second half of the year. For the 2014-2015season, the Pacers will travel approximately 41,889 miles. Weโve already traveled roughly 26,200 miles of that in the first half. City to city flight distance in the second half will reach about 15,600 miles with our longest flight being from New Orleans to Philly (~1100 miles). Donโt underestimate the impact of having 2 hour or less flights from here on out.
Now for the schedule break down. What Iโve done in the past was break the teams into groups based on how many more times we play each team. Once these groups are established, I determine what record I think weโll need vs each group to end the season at .500. Team listed below with (Home/Away) next to each.
Group A
Teams we play once more:
Atlanta (A)
Dallas (H)
Golden State (H)
Memphis (A)
New Orleans (A)
Sacramento (H)
San Antonio (H)
Talk about a nightmare group. Thankfully we only play these teams once. Fortunately as well, we have most of these games at home which might be enough of an advantage for us to sneak out 3 games in this group. An extra win or two would really give us some leeway in Group B though.
Group B
Teams we play twice more:
Boston (H,A)
Brooklyn (H,A)
Chicago (H,A)
Detroit (H,A)
Houston (A,H)
Miami (A,H)
Milwaukee (H,A)
Oklahoma City (A,H)
Orlando (A,H)
Philadelphia (A,H)
Toronto (A,H)
Washington (A,H)
This group is where our season will be made or lost. 4 teams are well above .500, 2 are hovering around .500, and the rest have played within a couple games of us. All of these games are split neatly 1 home 1 away. To achieve .500, I feel as though weโll need to win 3 out of every 4 games vs the teams with a similar record as us or near .500, and at least split the games vs teams well above .500. This leaves us with an ambitious 16-8 record for this group. Iโd feel more comfortable going with 14-10 here but I just donโt see where those 2 other wins would come from in the other groups.
Group C
Teams we play thrice more:
Charlotte (A,A,H)
Cleveland (H,H,A)
This group can be Jekyll and Hyde for us. I could see us taking five of the six or losing five of the six. Because of this, Iโm gonna split it right up the middle and say 3 wins, 3 losses. If we can protect home floor this shouldnโt be too much to ask.
Group D
Teams we play 4 times:
New York (H,H,A,A)
Thereโs no question about it. The fact that we play New York 4 times in our final 35 games is an advantage no other team in the league is afforded. We must not squander this opportunity. 4 wins.
Second half predictions:
1) We will make the playoffs.
2) I think PG will play this year. IIRC, the original prognosis on PG was best case 6-9 months out. I know he wonโt be back in just 6 months as thatโs only a couple weeks away. I could see him back somewhere around the 7.5-8 month mark though. No two people are alike but the closest example I can draw from was the 220 days it took Kevin Ware to get back into an NCAA game. The same sort of time frame for PG would be around March 10th at home vs Orlando. Based on the limited glimpses weโve had from him and my highly unscientific assessment, I think heโll make his official debut on Sunday, March 29 at home vs Dallas. This gives 10 games left in the season to tune up for the playoffs.
3) I could see us ripping off an 8 game win streak to start out March. We play 8 of 9 at home vs mainly mediocre clubs and the lone road game is at New York.
4) Pacers extend streak of most consecutive seasons without a losing record on the home floor.
5) And finally in case anyone is curious, here is my individual game predicted win cycle for the rest of the year. Iโve based this off of days of rest between games, the opponent, home vs away, PG returning, and the inevitable late season gimmeโs from other teams tanking or resting starters:
W(2L)2W(L)3W(2L)W(L)W(2L)3W(L)4W(3L)2W(L)W(L)5W(L) 3W
Letโs get this bad boy kicked off. A win in Charlotte could jump start us to over-achieving in*Group C.
Group A (0-0)
Atlanta (A) Dallas (H) Golden State (H) Memphis (A) New Orleans (A) Sacramento (H) San Antonio (H)
Prediction: (3-4)
Group B (0-0)
Boston (H,A) Brooklyn (H,A) Chicago (H,A) Detroit (H,A) Houston (A,H) Miami (A,H) Milwaukee (H,A) Oklahoma City (A,H) Orlando (A,H) Philadelphia (A,H) Toronto (A,H) Washington (A,H)
Prediction: (16-8)
Group C (0-0)
Charlotte (A,A,H) Cleveland (H,H,A)
Prediction: (3-3)
Group D (0-0)
New York (H,H,A,A)
Prediction: (4-0)
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