10 Year Forecast Roundup

[Dece]

I apologize to Cubs if they planned to do this but it'd been a few days and I was bored in a work meeting so I figured I'd tabulate.

Teams the clear majority think the Pacers will have a better decade then
Washington Wizards
Sacramento Kings
Toronto Raptors
Philly 76ers
Orlando Magic
New York Knicks
Minnesota TWolves
LA Clippers
Detroit Pistons
Chicago Bulls
Brooklyn Nets
Charlotte Hornets
Atlanta Hawks
Dallas Mavericks

This board thinks the Pacers have a clearly better future than 14 teams in the NBA. Here we have some teams that just have and probably will always suck, some teams that have gone all in and found their all in to be first round ceilings, and some teams that are probably rebuilding but the path forward isn't super clear.

Teams the clear majority think will have a better decade than the Pacers
San Antonio Spurs
Phoenix Suns
OKC Thunder
Miami Heat
Milwaukee Bucks
LA Lakers
Denver Nuggets
Cleveland Cavaliers
Boston Celtics

This board views 9 teams as a clear cut above the Pacers. In here we have a mix of teams with either current title aspirations, better front offices, better prospects, better markets, or a combination of those things that make the fans in Indiana envious.

Team that were more or less toss up on who will have a better decade
Utah Jazz
Portland Trailblazers
New Orleans Pelicans
Memphis Grizzlies
Houston Rockets
Golden State Warriors

Finally we have 6 teams that the board is fairly divided on. You could maybe also move Dallas to this field, I waffled on the 60.4% majority. Here are some teams that might be really good but also might be injured and some teams that have prospects that people aren't as sold on.

In totality the board projects the Pacers to be in the 10-15th range for the NBA. C+. Markedly average. At least they weren't 25th, right Bill?

I guess I don't know if we should have expected any different really. Hopefully there will be some years in the decade where the Pacers can be a tough out for the 9-15 teams above them.

[MillerTime]

Magic and Pistons may be better than people think

[Cubs231721]

Ha, I wrote in my last 2 messages that I had this planned for next Monday morning That's ok though. I am going to copy the text I had already done because I had gathered all the different threads so people could click and find any matchup they wanted. Here that is:

Blowout win for other team (Pacers 0-24 percent of vote)
Denver- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ver-or-indiana
Boston- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ton-or-indiana
Milwaukee- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...kee-or-indiana
Oklahoma City- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ity-or-indiana
San Antonio- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...nio-or-indiana


Close Win for other team (Pacers with 25-49 percent of vote)
Cleveland- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...and-or-indiana
Golden State- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ate-or-indiana
L.A. Lakers- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ers-or-indiana
Memphis- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...his-or-indiana
Miami- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ami-or-indiana
New Orleans- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ans-or-indiana
Phoenix- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...nix-or-indiana
Utah- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...tah-or-indiana

Tied
Houston- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ton-or-indiana

Close Win for Pacers ( Pacers with 51-75 percent of vote)
Dallas- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...las-or-indiana
Portland- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...and-or-indiana

Blowout win for Pacers (Pacers with 75-99 percent of vote)
Atlanta- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...nta-or-indiana
Brooklyn- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...lyn-or-indiana
Charlotte- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...tte-or-indiana
Chicago- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ago-or-indiana
Detroit- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...oit-or-indiana
L.A. Clippers- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ers-or-indiana
Minnesota- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ota-or-indiana
New York- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ork-or-indiana
Orlando- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ndo-or-indiana
Philadelphia- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...hia-or-indiana
Sacramento- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...nto-or-indiana
Toronto- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...nto-or-indiana
Washington- https://www.pacersdigest.com/forum/t...ton-or-indiana

[dal9]

alright for fun...scenarios on how the pacers do better than the blowout loss teams:


Denver: Being out of shape catches up with Jokic, suffers career ending injury; Bruce Brown steals coaching ideas that turn Turner into Jokic.

Boston: Tatum and Brown cap out as "Robins" and they can only afford G-League guys for slots 3-12. Brown goes even more Kyrie/Kanye.

The following 3 aren't even that crazy:

Milwaukee: Giannis' game falls off as he loses athleticism. Never learns to shoot. Middleton and Jrue get old, Bucks can't replace them.

Oklahoma City: Miss on the draft picks, can't afford to extend all of their prospects after their rookie deals expire.

San Antonio: Wemby's health doesn't hold up.

[Cubs231721]

alright for fun...scenarios on how the pacers do better than the blowout loss teams:


Denver: Being out of shape catches up with Jokic, suffers career ending injury; Bruce Brown steals coaching ideas that turn Turner into Jokic.

Boston: Tatum and Brown cap out as "Robins" and they can only afford G-League guys for slots 3-12. Brown goes even more Kyrie/Kanye.

The following 3 aren't even that crazy:

Milwaukee: Giannis' game falls off as he loses athleticism. Never learns to shoot. Middleton and Jrue get old, Bucks can't replace them.

Oklahoma City: Miss on the draft picks, can't afford to extend all of their prospects after their rookie deals expire.

San Antonio: Wemby's health doesn't hold up.

I think the Milwaukee scenario is Giannis leaves in 2 years because Middleton, Jrue, and Brook Lopez are all old and they don't really have much of anything else.

Completely agree with you on San Antonio's scenario.

Boston has three injury prone players in key roles: Porzingis, Brogdon, and Robert Williams. If all three of them majorly struggle with injuries, they are going to be a first/second round team without much ability to improve. Not the most likely scenario in the world, but not a shocking one either.

I think for OKC and especially Denver it would have to involve the Pacers hitting one of their best outcomes.

[Guest]

How to accelerate the Pacers future? Trade Benn for Ant ? Fun time over

[Ichi]

How to accelerate the Pacers future? Trade Benn for Ant ? Fun time over

Benn, Nemby, Jarace, Sheppard, Nesmith, and picks still couldn't get it done

[Dece]

Ha, I wrote in my last 2 messages that I had this planned for next Monday morning That's ok though. I am going to copy the text I had already done because I had gathered all the different threads so people could click and find any matchup they wanted. Here that is:

Ah my bad dude, I didn't see.

[BobbyMac]

Interesting, I believe the Pacers will be in the top 6 in overall performance in the next 10 years in the NBA.

[Trader Joe]

Interesting, I believe the Pacers will be in the top 6 in overall performance in the next 10 years in the NBA.

So essentially a run equal to what we did from say 93-94 to 03-04 which saw us make the playoffs every year except one and make the conference finals 6 times and the NBA finals once?

[BillS]

So essentially a run equal to what we did from say 93-94 to 03-04 which saw us make the playoffs every year except one and make the conference finals 6 times and the NBA finals once?

I'll go on record as saying that once you make the conference finals it's a real crap shoot who wins the championship. Sure, we remember the blowout years, but a good 50% or more depend on injuries, luck, a single call, and one outstanding performance.

[Pacerized]

I'll take the under on the concensus. I think we'll be in the top 20 teams, maybe top 13-14. We'll end our drought and win a playoff series but I doubt if we make it out of the second round.

[BobbyMac]

So essentially a run equal to what we did from say 93-94 to 03-04 which saw us make the playoffs every year except one and make the conference finals 6 times and the NBA finals once?

I would never suggest that the Pacers will not win a championship in ANY 10 year span. Life on the optimistic side is much more fun. Cheers!

[Cubs231721]

I'll go on record as saying that once you make the conference finals it's a real crap shoot who wins the championship. Sure, we remember the blowout years, but a good 50% or more depend on injuries, luck, a single call, and one outstanding performance.

I don't think that's quite true. If it were, the worst team of the four conference finals teams should win the title fairly regularly. But I could only find 2-3 possible instances of this in the last 30 years.

[BillS]

I don't think that's quite true. If it were, the worst team of the four conference finals teams should win the title fairly regularly. But I could only find 2-3 possible instances of this in the last 30 years.

How do you define the "worst team" in this scenario? Lowest seed? Lowest position in previous years? Least number of previous championships? Fewest superstars?

I think there's also the automatic tendency to believe that a championship team couldn't possibly have been the worst team so there's already a bias involved.