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Rule #1

Pacers Digest is intended to be a place to discuss basketball without having to deal with the kinds of behaviors or attitudes that distract people from sticking with the discussion of the topics at hand. These unwanted distractions can come in many forms, and admittedly it can sometimes be tricky to pin down each and every kind that can rear its ugly head, but we feel that the following examples and explanations cover at least a good portion of that ground and should at least give people a pretty good idea of the kinds of things we actively discourage:

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Who is more successful over next 10 years? Brooklyn or Indiana

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  • Who is more successful over next 10 years? Brooklyn or Indiana

    Here is part three of this offseason series. Today's focus is on Brooklyn.

    Brooklyn Key Stats
    Record last year: 45-37
    Playoffs last year: Lost 1st round to Philadelphia 4-0
    Key Players and ages this year: Mikal Bridges (27), Nic Claxton (24), Cam Johnson (27)
    Young players on their way up: Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead
    Salary this year: 155.47 million (9.47 under luxury tax)
    Imminent Cap issues: They'll have more flexibility in two years when Simmons comes off their cap
    Future first round picks: They own Phoenix's 25, 27, and 29 unprotected first round picks, and also have swap rights for the 28 pick. They also own a 29 Dallas unprotected pick, and a 27 Sixers pick that is top 8 protected. Outgoing: They owe their 24 and 26 unprotected picks to Houston. Their 25 and 27 picks can be pick swapped
    Future second round picks: +2 (two more incoming than outgoing)

    Indiana key stats
    Record last year: 35-47
    Playoff last year: None
    Key Players and ages this year: Tyrese Haliburton (23), Benedict Mathurin (21), Myles Turner (27)
    Young Players on their way up: Andrew Nembhard, Jerace Walker
    Salary this year: 128.6 million (7.5 million under salary cap)
    Imminent Cap issues: None
    Future first round picks: Indiana owns an extra 2024 pick from one of four teams.
    Future second round picks: 0 (same outgoing as ingoing)
    23
    Brooklyn
    8.70%
    2
    Indiana
    91.30%
    21

    The poll is expired.

    Last edited by Cubs231721; 07-13-2023, 01:42 PM.

  • #2
    I'm going to just give my blanket answer for all these "who will be more successful" threads.

    TIME WILL TELL

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by RamBo_Lamar View Post
      I'm going to just give my blanket answer for all these "who will be more successful" threads.

      TIME WILL TELL
      I can understand that sentiment and obviously that's the overall right answer, but let me address the relevance of threads like these:

      I have found there are three main types of hardcore fans:

      1 is the fan who is a passionate, frequent viewer, but doesn't spend a whole lot of time thinking about the details between the games.

      2 are the fans who like to be coaches. Players should do this, substitutions and timeouts should be this way, the team would be better if they just played this person or stopped playing this other person, etc.

      3 are the fans who like to be GM's. Here are the roster moves the team should make, here's the planning they should do to build a championship team, etc.

      There is obviously crossover between those categories, but at their core most big fans fall into one of those three categories.

      This topic is clearly a favorite for people who fall into category 3. GM's have to plan for exactly this. How do we maximize long-term success by balancing the competing priorities of wanting to win now vs win in the future.

      So for some people thinking about such things might be stressful. There's no reason to do it if it is. But it's fun for some of us and a way to stay connected to the team when there are no games for 3+ months.

      Comment


      • #4
        Man, this is tricky.

        Brooklyn is in a weird spot, generally-speaking. They blew up their super team and yet, due to the trades they had made to form said super team, they do not actually own any of their own picks for the next 4 years (I'm including the pick swaps here, I know that it's not technically the same but they can have a similar result). So, while they're going younger, they actually have no incentive to have a bad record themselves. They won't benefit from it a lot.

        They do have picks coming in from other teams (4 from Phoenix, again including the pick swaps, 1 from Dallas and 1 from Philly) but it's not a given that these picks will be high lotto picks and, more importantly, they have no way to control how good they can be. If Phoenix blows it up in a couple of years (like Brooklyn itself ended up doing) and if Luka leaves Dallas before 2029 then Brooklyn is going to have an awesome future. If not? No idea.

        Since their pick situation is quite nebulous, let's look at what they actually have on their roster. I'm going to be listing them by contract:

        We'll start with Ben Simmons. Simmons, at this point, is a non-asset. He has negative value right now but Brooklyn also has no reason to trade him away as they're not in cap hell. Maybe he manages to play next year and recoups some of his value so he's tradeable again. Maybe his back is so ****ed up that he just never returns to form again and chooses to retire instead. Once again, I have no idea. That''s why I called him a non-asset in the first place.

        Then you have Mikal Bridges. Mikal is awesome and he's is on his way to establish himself as a star. Not a superstar, top-25 type of player but a star nonetheless. I don't know if he has enough scoring to take a team on his back and lead them to a playoff berth on his own but he is a really, really good two-way player. Brooklyn is surely glad to have him. He's their guy right now. That said, I will also say that Mikal's trade value is sky high right now. Brooklyn could definitely cash in on that and get some good young players and picks in return to put their rebuild into higher gear. But, then again, they don't own their own picks so they have no incentive to go into a full rebuild. So, they probably keep Mikal unless they get an amazing offer.

        Then you have Cameron Johnson. They just paid him a considerable amount of money and if he's able to increase his scoring volume then he may justify the contract and help them win games.

        Then they have 3 vets in Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neal. All 3 of them are good players and they can help Brooklyn win games right now which seems to be their plan (since, again, they have no incentive to bottom out). Maybe they could turn some of them into future assets, maybe not. It will depend on how the trade markets looks like at the deadline.

        Then you have Brooklyn's young guys. Nic Claxton, Cam Thomas, Noah Clowney, Dariq Whitehead and Day'Ron Sharpe.

        A lot of what Brooklyn wants to do rests on Nic Claxton becoming a two-way star. He did have a great season last year. He is a very good and versatile defender already and I have no doubt that he can kick this part of his game into higher gear. The bet is on the offensive end. He is a highly efficient player but on a low volume. Can he handle a bigger scoring load? Does he needs to have a bigger scoring load? He has talent as a passer, can he be used as an offensive hub? Those are questions that I cannot answer right now.

        Cam Thomas is a highly talented scorer. He can fill it up quickly. But can he become something more than a microwave scorer? Can he improve his defense and playmaking enough to warrant a starting role? Could he perhaps become Brooklyn's main ball-handler, especially if Dinwiddie isn't kept? Thomas' potential as a scorer is very high but he needs to be able to do more if he wants a larger role.

        Noah Clowney and Dariq Whitehead were good upside swings in the draft, imo. The hope with Clowney is that he becomes 3 & D big. Claxton is not a shooter and he isn't likely to develop into one so Clowney is there to give them another option, a big who can space the floor. The problem is that Clowney's perimeter shot is largely theoretical at this point. He is comfortable taking them but he's not a good shooter yet. He definitely has a much better chance than Claxton, though. I get why they went with Clowney, he was good value at their range.

        Now, Whitehead used to be very highly-regarded in HS but he was plagued by injuries at the college level. If Whitehead can regain the athleticism that he had in HS then he could become a really good player for them. If not, then he still can shoot the ball at a high level as a 6'7 guy and there's value in that. It is important to note here that the doctor who performed the second surgery on Whitehead is Brooklyn's orthopedic surgeon so if there was one team in the league that can be the most sure about Whitehead's chances at making a full recovery, that's Brooklyn.

        As for Day'Ron Sharpe, I liked him in the draft. He can be a rotation player for them as the 3rd/4th big. He probably doesn't impact their outlook a ton but he is something.

        All in all, there's still some uncertainty even with their players.

        Ultimately, I think that Brooklyn will be a solid team next year and they'll probably be a solid team for many years to come. They don't have any incentive to bottom out so they'll be trying to win but they probably won't be good enough to have HCA. I predict a lot of 42+ win seasons in their future. They're pretty much forced to be on that treadmill since they do not gain anything by tanking. Of course, it IS Brooklyn and they could always make trades for stars. They have some assets.

        So, I will vote for our Pacers here but it's really close. The reason why I'm voting for the Pacers is because I do think that we have a more clear path at becoming a HCA team. To become a HCA team, we only need our young players to keep developing and they all showed excellent signs last year. Brooklyn's path is a bit more complicated and depends a lot on what happens to teams like Phoenix and Dallas. They cannot really control how good those assets will be. Plus, at the end of the day I do think that Haliburton, unlike Mikal Bridges, can become a top-25 type of player.

        Obviously, if Brooklyn manages to bring in a star via FA or trade then none of what I said above is going to matter. If they do get a star then they can become contenders instantly (depending on the star, of course) which would make them have a better future than us. But barring that star going there, I'm picking the Pacers.

        PS: I do have to say that this was a really good question. With the previous two, my answer was immediate. For this one, though, I had to write this whole thing down before I made my choice. I only really made that choice while I was writing that post, to be honest.
        Originally posted by IrishPacer
        Empty vessels make the most noise.

        Comment


        • #5
          I never vote against the Pacers, AND i think we're entering a "Golden Age:" of Pacer Success!
          Go Pacers!

          Comment


          • #6
            Bridges is really nice but I didn't realize he was already 27. The Nets have a ton of picks, I can imagine a world where they become successful, but as much as I hate on KP the Nets management has to be worse. When you bring in guys like Kyrie and Simmons I think that just shows a lack of judgment that is likely to repeatedly lead you to failure. Sean Marks has been GM since 2016 for them. They have 1 playoff series win since then, despite being in the New York market and having ownership willing to spend whatever it takes.

            Pacers dub.

            Comment


            • #7
              The poll definitely isn't as close as I thought it'd be
              Originally posted by IrishPacer
              Empty vessels make the most noise.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by Nuntius View Post
                The poll definitely isn't as close as I thought it'd be
                id say "too close to call" if it was an option

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Nuntius View Post
                  The poll definitely isn't as close as I thought it'd be
                  It reminds me of the MVP vote. Lots of people believe it might be close, but if they all vote for the same person at the end it appears to be more of a blowout than it actually is.

                  This one was by far the hardest one so far for me. I believe the Pacers have the better player base and cap situation. The Nets have the better picks situation and market.

                  At the end of the day, with the Knicks looking a little better, that was the deciding factor for me. Brooklyn's market advantage is a little diminished if the more high profile team in town is not embarrassing.

                  But I could easily see someone picking Brooklyn because of a more realistic high upside.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    I think the KD, Kyrie, Harden disaster is going to stick in free agent's minds for a while. Pacers by a mile IMO


                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Wow, PD stepping up behind the Pacers so far. Hope I continue to be wrong.
                      BillS

                      A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                      Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        also boo private poll


                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Trader Joe View Post
                          also boo private poll
                          Fixed, thanks. I forgot to click that box this time.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Pacers and Cavs next

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              I think Brooklyn is going to have some great PHO picks, but that will be a few years out still. Mikal is awesome. Claxton keeps getting better it seems. Pacers still have the better future at the moment. When Nembhard is your 3rd or 4th best prospect, you're looking decent imo.

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