Who is more successful over next 10 years? Memphis or Indiana

[Cubs231721]

Here is part 14 of this offseason series. Today's focus is on Memphis.

Memphis key stats
Record last year: 51-31
Playoffs last year: Lost to Lakers in first round in 6 games
Key Players and ages this year: Ja Morant (24) Desmond Bane (25) Jaren Jackson Jr. (24) Marcus Smart (29)
Young players on their way up: David Roddy, Jake LaRavia
Salary this year: 150.8 million (14.5 million under luxury tax)
Imminent Cap issues: They will need to decline Kennard's team option to get under 2nd apron next year and maybe other smaller options to be under luxury tax because Bane's extension kicks in.
Future first round picks: Memphis can swap for the less favorable of Washington and Phoenix 2024 and 2030 picks (Washington lottery protected in 2024).
Future second round picks: -5 (5 more outgoing than incoming)

Indiana key stats
Record last year: 35-47
Playoff last year: None
Key Players and ages this year: Tyrese Haliburton (23), Benedict Mathurin (21), Myles Turner (27)
Young Players on their way up: Andrew Nembhard, Jerace Walker
Salary this year: 128.6 million (7.5 million under salary cap)
Imminent Cap issues: None
Future first round picks: Indiana owns an extra 2024 pick from one of four teams.
Future second round picks: +1 (1 more incoming than outgoing)

[dal9]

i'll say Pacers just because Ja looks to be a mental trainwreck...plus it's memphis, it's gonna have problems getting FAs etc, like us

[xIndyFan]

question basically boils down to "Will Ja Morant ever grow up?" Given his salary cap number and the fact he is the guy that stirs their drink, if he doesn't, Memphis is screwed big time. If he does, then they are going to be very good for the next decade, I think. Me, I have no clue.

[Dece]

I don't think Ja ever becomes an adult, but who knows. Maybe he can keep it together for 1 season and they can cash him out and end up great that way.

[Nuntius]

If Ja manages to overcome the issues he was fighting through this season then I give Memphis the edge. I want to be optimistic about people, in general, so I do believe that Ja will manage to overcome these issues. I also think that Marcus Smart can help with that a bit. So, I voted for Memphis.

[Cubs231721]

This has been a really rough one to decide. I was literally typing it out for why I was ultimately going to pick Memphis because of the other talent on their team, but I changed my mind. The Grizzlies have a fully formed team already, while the Pacers still have some flexibility to add. That will at least make the gap in other players not quite as wide.

And the Morant question both in character and injury risk in how he plays is such a big question for that team. That question is big enough that Indiana squeaks across the finish line for me.

[CJ Jones]

I initially had Memphis as well but ultimately went Pacers. I'm still a fan of that team though. If they manage to get another guy on the wing, or if GG hits, they could easily contend for titles in the near future.

[Ichi]

I'll choose Memphis because they have three established high level young guys. Ja has been extremely disappointing, as a huge fan of his since draft time. I'm now indifferent when it comes to Ja, but that team has some talent. I don't think they've done the best job in making moves around that talent. I don't think Marcus Smart is enough, especially since they lost Tyus Jones.

I do think GG is a good gamble for most teams that need to find another high ceiling guy, but I'm a bit worried about the fit there, if reports are true about his iffy personality/attitude.

[Wage]

I feel like this was an easy one for Memphis. Seems like if everyone on the Pacers develops into basically their best case scenario, they are still slightly worse versions of what their Memphis counterparts have already proven to be.

[Guest]

Bane is going to average like 25-30 points when Ja is out

[Dece]

I feel like this was an easy one for Memphis. Seems like if everyone on the Pacers develops into basically their best case scenario, they are still slightly worse versions of what their Memphis counterparts have already proven to be.

I'm not even saying you are wrong, but if the Pacer core ceiling is the current Grizzlies that's so barf worthy. 2 first round exits and a second round? 9 playoff wins in 3 years? Whoop-de-doo.

[Pacerized]

I'm not even saying you are wrong, but if the Pacer core ceiling is the current Grizzlies that's so barf worthy. 2 first round exits and a second round? 9 playoff wins in 3 years? Whoop-de-doo.

I think he's right, our ceiling is around where the Grizzlies are now and I realize a lot of people will disagree with me.We had an opportunity to put give ourselves a better chance in the draft but made the decision not to. If Hali where to improve and both of our last 2 draft picks make it to fringe all star status I still only see the potential for a 50 win second round team.

[Peck]

I'm not even saying you are wrong, but if the Pacer core ceiling is the current Grizzlies that's so barf worthy. 2 first round exits and a second round? 9 playoff wins in 3 years? Whoop-de-doo.

While I'm 100% on board with this sentiment the sad truth is that I would kill for 9 playoff wins in 3 years. We haven't had a single playoff win in 5 years.

[Cubs231721]

I think he's right, our ceiling is around where the Grizzlies are now and I realize a lot of people will disagree with me.We had an opportunity to put give ourselves a better chance in the draft but made the decision not to. If Hali where to improve and both of our last 2 draft picks make it to fringe all star status I still only see the potential for a 50 win second round team.

I assume that's only because of a lack of top 5 player and that you don't believe Haliburton has the potential to get that high? (I tend to agree with the second part, I think back end of the top 10 is about as high as he could go consistently). Because if all those things happen, the Pacers still have a lot of trade and cap space assets to supplement that core.

[Dece]

I think if we were to lay odds on what is likely over the next 5 years (Hali contract) one of those higher weighted outcomes is something along those lines, 3-4 playoff births, 1-2 series won. To make it the ceiling though? It might be correct, but that feels just absolutely awful. I'm trying to decide if I disagree, and if I do, where/why.

Trying to break down the cases:

Worst case, big injuries to Hali, something else catastrophic. Let's not dwell here. Some % chance it happens, though.

Bad case, neither Mathurin nor Walker become fringe all-star quality players (or better) in the next 5 years. Bruce gets paid all of the 45M before he walks away to another team (not traded for value). Pacers average like 42 wins a year for these 5 years, nothing but first round exits, missing the playoffs isn't out of the question. Probably the most exciting thing in these 5 years is winning the play-in. I'd say this is something like a 40% chance.

Middle case, one of Mathurin/Walker is all-star-ish, the other is an ok starter or 6th man. The best player on the team is the ~20th best player in the NBA. Maybe this team wins 2 first rounds in the 5 years. I don't particularly think the current Grizzlies are much better than this. I'd say this is also something like a 40% chance.

Is there no best case? In a world where Mathurin/Walker both become all-star-ish, then the Pacers best player is still ~20th in the league, but they'd have like 5 guys in the NBA top 50. Does that team do much more than the middle case? I guess it depends on the match-ups come playoff time. I could see this playing out and the ceiling still being ECF though. I don't see any path to a title with Hali as the best player, and I think it's somewhere around 0% chance that Math or Walker become better than him. I guess Memphis isn't far off that, there's definitely the right match-ups where they make the WCF, even if they aren't a real threat either.

Damn, I think Wage is correct. It's all kind of nothing without finding the guy who's better than Hali to play with him. Pretty sad when everything going right still leads to the ECF ceiling.