Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

[Pacergeek]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Charlotte is now a better team, and we are now a worse team. Period

[BlueCollarColts]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Charlotte is now a better team, and we are now a worse team. Period

From a talent perspective I agree, it doesn't always play out that way however.

[wintermute]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

You almost have to separate the Pacer's regular season into 2 parts. The 1st half and the 2nd half for the season stats to mean anything relevant.

I haven't followed the rest of the arguments, but I definitely agree with this.

[Heisenberg]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Please and thank you. I hope one thing that get banished from this team's offensive sets is the fake screen and rolls that both Roy and DWest run every time up the floor. This team never set any sort of real screens or picks for each other the entire year. I never got it. You have to big guys who aren't very mobile. Go have them plant their asses into a defender and get some separation for the wings. Instead all we see is slipping the screen or pick and basically never requiring the defense to react.

like this?



the Mavs run that all the time. we killed the Knicks with it so bad in the playoffs they stole it last season.

or all the times we'd run the elevator doors

[mattie]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Obviously Zach Lowe knows what he's talking about so I'm not trying to say the guy is wrong, but we have season of evidence that suggest losing Lance shouldn't be the detriment he thinks it will be.

Zach continues to say that Lance is a necessary ball handler for the Pacers, but he's also for a long time criticized the Pacers lack of shooting. So which is it? Do they need more ball handling or shooting??

IN 11-12 and 12-13 the Pacers had a HIGHER offensive rating than they did last year. Last year was the only year in which they had the additional ball handling and shot creating of Lance Stephenson. WHy was their offense worse??

In 11-12 They had Darren Collison/Hill as the starting PG, PG and Granger as their perimeter players. The offense was better.

12 12-13 PG and Hill were the only ball handlers. If you remember, the still underdeveloped Lance was basically non-existent on offense. The guy who stood in the corner with his thumb up his ***. So how in the hell will the offense suddenly get worse??

We have 3 seasons of evidence that suggest this team probably needs more shooting on the floor versus ball handling. I don't see any reason why Hill and PG can't dominate the ball and this team be good. I think CJ Miles will start and help space the floor and just as is this team will be better. The team has badly missed shooting. A guy who simply sits on the outside, spaces the floor and nails three pointers. Hill was relegated to playing basically off the ball all season and his numbers badly suffered. THe season before? He put up 15-5, solid but not great numbers. This team can succeed as is, and I think we have all the evidence that they will.

I think Lowe has done a great job and gathering the numbers of this team, but he's drawn some wrong conclusions. Lance is a very solid two way players but I do not think he was helping the team on offense. The way the offense worked last year? Sure the numbers would show he did. However, I think it was a offense that was doomed to fail. You put Hill off the ball (mistake), you took the ball out of PG's hands more than it should, and Lance took the place of what should be a dead eye shooter. In other words, Lance put up decent numbers, and he was a necessary cog in a BAD offense. I think CJ Miles could be a necessary fifth option, a nice piece that helps this team turn into a maybe an average or above average offense.

It's going to take a lot of coaching tho. PLayers need to move off the ball, get proper spacing, do all those little things that they weren't doing last year. But I completely disagree with the idea that they need a third player in the lineup who can handle the ball.

[mattie]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

I also completely disagree with the idea that Lance is suddenly going to make Charlotte that much better. In a weak conference they should be a solid team, but seriously everyone keeps forgetting what makes an offense work. Every great offense in the NBA has shooting. Every one, without fail. Yet somehow Charloette is going to defy all logic by starting three perimeter players that can't shoot? What the ****? I'm sure Kemba and Lance can put up some solid numbers next season, but to think those guys can make that team score at an above average pace when no one in the staring lineup can shoot worth a **** is insane.

Every great offense has all these ingredients: A little ball handling, a little shooting, spacing, a little post game, and some transition offense. I mean it's different with every team, some concentrate one one thing more than the other, but you can't just leave something out. IF you have no shooting, you can't space the floor, the defense collapses on you and the games over.

I can tell you right now if the Charlotte wants to walk into the fieldhouse with Lance, MKG and Kemba, the Pacers will eat them up on defense. They'll need to start a stretch four that's for sure. I guess if McRoberts (edit-he's on Miami, I'm dumb) improves his shooting more he could definitely help, but man that offense already has a massive flaw.

[Kstat]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

That advantage shrinks without the team’s most dynamic player. It’s tempting to suggest the Pacers could replicate Stephenson’s bully game by inserting Rodney Stuckey, signed to a tidy one-year minimum deal on Wednesday, into Stephenson’s starting spot. Stuckey is another hybrid guard with mean intentions off the bounce and a useful post-up game from the left block.

But he can’t shoot, and it will be hard for Indiana’s offense to function if George and Hill are the only 3-point shooters on the floor. Stuckey’s driving game can get a little wild and self-centered, veering into pull-up 17-footers when other guys are open, and his post game is really only a plus weapon in mismatches.

Spot-on assessment of Rodney Stuckey. Could not have summarized his game any better in two small paragraphs. The bolded part is something I'm sure I'll have PTSD over.

[Downtown Bang!]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

How does this team become an effective power post team with a center that shoots less than 45% and rarely is able to establish position and receive the ball within the painted area? Or with a power forward whose effectiveness in the post is inconsistent from game to game and very match-up dependent?

This team will be toast next year if it makes post feeds to Hibbert & West a point of specific emphasis. We will be the easiest team in the league to defend.

[mattie]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

And for those saying they aren't sure if Hill will be aggressive with the ball in his hands? There is no question if he will. HE DID. Prior to last year he was third on the team in scoring, and was second on the team in Clutch scoring according to 82games.com. (last five minutes, teams within 5 points of eachother).

The only difference is, how much better would Hill have looked if he had CJ Miles nailing threes instead of Lance doing little in the 2012-13 season? Or consider the massive improvements of Paul George from 2012-13 to what we can expect from him this upcoming season??

This is probably closer to the truth- The Pacers offense was poorly designed last year because Lance was simply a bad fit. He didn't work. Remember the first half of the season?? The Pacers didn't score that well. They were ok, but not that well. I think they were ranked 20th in those first 20 games. And that was with Paul George playing at an ungodly level! PG came down to earth and the team imploded. It wasn't sustainable. There were a lot more issues in that locker room that made the second half turn into a nightmare, but I think the offense was poorly contructed.

Put the ball back in Hills hand, put CJ Miles on the court... They also need to incorporate Chris Copeland. Just like what San ANtonio does, Copleand can be they guy they can hide on defense against certain teams. No reason he can't help stretch the defense against particular lineups.

Anywho. I believe in this team this upcoming year because I've seen them win in the past. So they'll do it again.



Edit - By the way, please don't misconstrue my comments as criticism of Lance. I personally love two way players and Lance has proven himself to be a solid two way player. I love his game. I love his attitude. I love his confidence. I wish he fit. He doesn't. Lance needs to play on a team with guys like Chandler Parsons as his teammates. He's a valuable player anywhere simply because he's such a good defender but he'd be even more valuable if he could be used for his strenths. A valuable ball handler who can get the ball to open shooters around him.

[wintermute]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

This is probably closer to the truth- The Pacers offense was poorly designed last year because Lance was simply a bad fit. He didn't work. Remember the first half of the season?? The Pacers didn't score that well. They were ok, but not that well. I think they were ranked 20th in those first 20 games. And that was with Paul George playing at an ungodly level! PG came down to earth and the team imploded. It wasn't sustainable. There were a lot more issues in that locker room that made the second half turn into a nightmare, but I think the offense was poorly contructed.

The rest of what you say may make sense, but I thought we scored pretty well in the first half of this year.

Look at the monthly splits for 13-14 (or if you prefer, pre AS vs post AS). I also put in the 11-12 splits for reference.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2014/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2012/splits/

(Looking at PPG isn't perfect, but I'm not going to calculate per possession ORTG for these numbers. PPG will have to do.)

It seems obvious that 13-14's numbers are dragged down by that disastrous stretch in March. All the other months are comparable to most months of 11-12, except for the hot stretch in April 2012. So really what we need to do is capture what went well in April 2012, and replicate that in the upcoming season's roster (we have to).

I do think you may have a point about shooting though. Our hot start this year was fueled by some insane shooting from PG and Lance. If our new shooters can consistently hit the 3 ball... well, we could be this season's Portland. Unfortunately we don't have a Lillard to break down the defense so I dunno.

EDIT: I found the thread were we discussed a similar topic

http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?88904-Live-by-the-3-die-by-the-3

Interesting to read back on.

[mattie]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

The rest of what you say may make sense, but I thought we scored pretty well in the first half of this year.

Look at the monthly splits for 13-14 (or if you prefer, pre AS vs post AS). I also put in the 11-12 splits for reference.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2014/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2012/splits/

(Looking at PPG isn't perfect, but I'm not going to calculate per possession ORTG for these numbers. PPG will have to do.)

It seems obvious that 13-14's numbers are dragged down by that disastrous stretch in March. All the other months are comparable to most months of 11-12, except for the hot stretch in April 2012. So really what we need to do is capture what went well in April 2012, and replicate that in the upcoming season's roster (we have to).

I do think you may have a point about shooting though. Our hot start this year was fueled by some insane shooting from PG and Lance. If our new shooters can consistently hit the 3 ball... well, we could be this season's Portland. Unfortunately we don't have a Lillard to break down the defense so I dunno.

EDIT: I found the thread were we discussed a similar topic

http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?88904-Live-by-the-3-die-by-the-3

Interesting to read back on.

That was interesting reading our perspective from the start of the season...

Who knows what will happen, but to perfectly honest, this years potential starting lineup, of Hill/Miles/PG/West/Roy should be my favorite starting lineup the Pacers will have EVER put together. Not saying it will work, my predictions are about as accurate as a broken clock is right, but I'm guessing it will.

I think Miles is going to be our Danny Green light, I think PG is our ball dominate perimeter player, I think Hill will have no problem throwing up 15-5 which is all we need from a point guard. We need nothing really from Roy on offense. I think West will play as well as we can expect- a good open jump shooter, and a solid post option. I think that can be a 12-8 ranked team on offense. And that would be good enough to make this team great.

I really see Vogel giving Copeland a chance to be a major contributor and I think he can. Vogel let Scola play his minutes this year because history told us, that at least up to date, Scola was clearly the better player. Well, after Scola's sub-par season I don't see why Vogel wouldn't give Copeland a chance. I also suspect, given the opportunity, that there is no reason Copeland can't be a valuable knockdown shooter off the bench. Like Ryan Anderson but not as good. Why not? We finally have all the tools. This team will continue to play defense but now I think they can score. I really do.

Edit- I'm a huge fan of what CJ Miles has become. Love his game. This is a guy I see who could have found his spot on a playoff contender. In Cleveland it wasn't the best situation, but maybe here, like Danny Green in SAS, I think he's really going to play well. We needed this. A healthy, shooter in his prime ready to do one thing, hit threes!

[Rogco]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

It's funny the massive range of opinion of the Pacers going into the season. Some view losing Lance as a bonus, though I personally can't figure out why. He led the team in field goal percentage, rebounds and assists last year, and was the only player we had who could handle a double team. People accuse him of being a ball-hog, but statistically, both PG and Hill were bigger ball hogs that Lance, both had the ball more and held it longer, and both had lower assist ratios and shooting percentage after handling the ball. There are things I like about Hill and things I don't, but I think he's bad in the playoffs when teams ramp up defensive pressure because he just can't handle it. You double team Hill and he looks lost.

However, it really does all boil down to Hibbert. If he plays like he did for the first three months of last year then I think we're fine because we can play with more of an inside to out mentality. However, if Roy continues to play like he did for the last 4 months, we're totally screwed and I'd say about a 40 win team.

[wintermute]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Edit- I'm a huge fan of what CJ Miles has become. Love his game. This is a guy I see who could have found his spot on a playoff contender. In Cleveland it wasn't the best situation, but maybe here, like Danny Green in SAS, I think he's really going to play well. We needed this. A healthy, shooter in his prime ready to do one thing, hit threes!

Hmm, maybe I didn't pay enough attention to Miles last year. From what I remember before, he was kind of meh. Right now, I have higher hopes for Solo developing into a 3 and D guy (on practically zero evidence, LOL). But I hope you're right!

[xIndyFan]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

That's because this team abandoned its power post identity for the better part of last year. We became a jump shooting team and our bigs were not happy about that at all.

Let's hope that this is going to change this season.

Wanted to thank this again. It is the most important part of next season, at least imo.

Quoted for the truth. I'm not sure why Frank allowed it to happen. It was Frank's biggest failure as a coach last year. I dunno if he felt the pressure to feature PG and Lance more, or just hard to argue against the early results the team was having. The team from 2 years ago was gritty, physical, and just plain executed from the post. Throw it down there and go to work. Crash the boards and get easy put backs. It was one ugly mo-fo of an offense, but our players were proud and wore it like a badge of honor! The power post should return in my opinion.

JMO, but the reason this was allowed to happen was pretty straight forward. Danny got hurt and Paul had to become a SF instead of a SG. Post ups were a strong part of Danny's game. They are not a big part of Paul's. Paul can post SG's well enough, but his post game is basically useless against most of the SF in the league. Lance can post, but evidently doesn't really like to. With both the Pacer wings uninterested/unable to post anyone, the Pacers just became a jump shooting team.

Paul's post game or lack of same is going to be a very important key to the success this team will have next season. If he can post guys, then teams will be unable to get away with guarding him with all the undersized guys they did last season.

[graphic-er]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

How does this team become an effective power post team with a center that shoots less than 45% and rarely is able to establish position and receive the ball within the painted area? Or with a power forward whose effectiveness in the post is inconsistent from game to game and very match-up dependent?

This team will be toast next year if it makes post feeds to Hibbert & West a point of specific emphasis. We will be the easiest team in the league to defend.

By crashing the boards and getting extra possessions. The 12'-13' team proved that can be successful. Hibbert has never been an efficient post player. But you get extra possessions and keep hammering. That team led the league in points in the paint. Led the league in Rebounding.

Don't you think we were the easiest team to defend in the league last year? All we did was settle for pull up long jumpers. Teams made us one-dimensional and the Pacers were all too happy to shoot the same shots we want to force our opponents into.. Long range 2's.

Thats why Vogel is the most maddening of coaches in my opinion. Defense: Cover the paint and perimeter and force long 2's. Offense: settle for long 2's. Even Scola and West's bread and butter jumpers were long 2's toward the end of the season because defenses were forcing our PnR higher and higher.