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Thread: Live by the 3, die by the 3

  1. #1
    Artificial Intelligence wintermute's Avatar
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    Default Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Through 4 games:

    Paul G is attempting 7.6 threes per game, hitting 45.2%

    Lance is attempting 4.9 threes per game, hitting 55.0%

    Last season:

    Paul G attempted 5.9 threes per game, hitting 36.2%

    Lance attempted 2.4 threes per game, hitting 33.0%

    (Lance already had a heat check game of sorts against the Pistons, hitting only 2 of 6 from 3P. He was at over 60% before that.)

    What do we think? Is this sustainable? Or are we heading for an offensive crash and burn when the threes refuse to fall?

    Our defense so far has been as stout as ever, but it seems to me that our offense has been too reliant on hot shooting so far. Or is it just me?

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  3. #2

    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    PG's 45% has a lot better chance of being close to a seasonal number than Lance's 55% does.

    Sure - there will be games where they don't fall, but overall - I think it's safe to say that they're decent 3pt shooters.

    Of course - it's just you.

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    Member Eleazar's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    I think Paul's is sustainable, but Lance is going to come back down to Earth. If he can shoot 55% for a whole season he would instantly be the best 3point shooter ever.

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    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Well certainly their percentages will drop. Especially Lance, but his threes are wide, wide open.

    Seems as though teams are giving Lance any open three he wants, and even with Paul they appear more willing to give him a three as opposed to allowing him to drive.

    Overall I don't feel as though we are relying too much on the three, seems more like teams are allowing us open threes. Plus it is too early to suggest this is a trend

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    Member naptownmenace's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Yeah, they're really relying on more outside shooting than last year but they're also scoring more in transition. That 2nd quarter last night was a moment when none of their threes would drop and they fell behind by 4.

    As long as the Pacers D and rebounding limits the opponent to just 1 possession each time down and they can take better care of the basketball, they'll be okay with the 3 point shooting.
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    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    PG has done a good job getting to the line so far but I'm worried. It's a small sample size. IF he doesn't learn to get to the line on a consistent basis then he'll continue to have what he had last year- Either hot shooting games or simply bad games. When you're constantly getting to the line it's a difference between being effective one game and absolutely crushing your opponent the next.

    And as you suggest I am NOT a fan of the Pacers offense so far. Way too many turnovers, bad freethrow shooting and no game has the team really came together to crush a team offensively. The team has to have near a top five offense to compete. IF they can't figure it out, I think it lowers their ceiling.

    Edit- Basically the only thing that has gone right on that side of the ball is exceptional three point shooting. Since we know that'll will come down to earth soon, I'm definitely a little worried.
    Last edited by mattie; 11-06-2013 at 11:42 AM.
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    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Even with the exceptional shooting so far, the Pacers oRTG is currently 18th in the league through the first 4 games. That is not good.
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    As long as the 3s are wide open, I have no problem with them.
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    Even with the exceptional shooting so far, the Pacers oRTG is currently 18th in the league through the first 4 games. That is not good.
    Yeah - they're horrible.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    I have to think the increased attempts are somewhat because of the increased percentages. Once they stop falling at such a good percentage, they'll shoot fewer I bet.

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  17. #11
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    I feel the same way about Paul George taking 8 threes a game as I did about Danny taking 8 threes a game. I'd like for him to do work closer to the basket, but if you're gonna shoot a high percentage and the shots are within the flow of the offense, it's hard to complain too much.
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    We don't need a top 5 offense. If we keep our top 2 or 3 defense, we just need an average offense to be a top 5 reg season team. 12-15 ranked offense will be what we are shooting for. Very attainable if either Roy or West gets going.

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    Member LoneGranger33's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    George Hill, C.J. Watson, and Orlando Johnson are all solid, if not good, three point shooters as well; they'll pick up the slack where necessary. C.J., usually around 40% shooting from behind the arc, has just hit 2 of 10 this year. I'm much more worried about the 20 turnovers per game.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    No we're fine. Other stats to look at, our assists are way up from this point last year, I think by like 4 or 5 a game, that suggests better ball movement which is naturally going to lead to better looks that you want to take.

    As a team, we took abotu 19.7 3PG last year and hit about 6.9 of them. This year we're taking about 3 more and we're hitting about 3 more. That doesn't seem unsustainable to me at all. It just seems like our offense is opening up a little bit more. Plus at the same time, our FTA per game has also gone up by about 3-4 attempts per game from last year. So we have seen an increase in 3ptA and makes and also an increase in FTA, this is a great sign for our offensive scheme as a whole.

    The 3 is a huge weapon right now and even where we are we are middle of the pack this year so far in 3PA a game. We are 16th in the NBA. Right next to Oklahoma City.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    Even with the exceptional shooting so far, the Pacers oRTG is currently 18th in the league through the first 4 games. That is not good.
    I think that is the turnovers at work. When you have such high amount of turnovers your ORtg is going to suffer.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Also, consider this, Lance is shooting an unsustainable rate, but Danny Granger a career 38% 3pt shooter has yet to play and CJ Watson who is also a career 38% shooter from 3 is only shooting 20% so far.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    Even with the exceptional shooting so far, the Pacers oRTG is currently 18th in the league through the first 4 games. That is not good.
    Turnovers and missed free throws, perhaps?

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Hicks View Post
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    Turnovers and missed free throws, perhaps?
    Sure and a couple epically bad quarters like the second last night in Detroit and the first quarter in New Orleans. Plus you've got David West who has pretty much buoyed our hopeless offense for his first 2 years here shooting 35% from the field, that is going up at some point. That % is below his career averaged by 14% and would his career worst by over 8% (his second year of his career he shot just over 43%).

    It's 4 games in, we've looked amazing and we haven't even had the starting point guard on the team for two of those games. (You know a guy we couldn't win either game in the playoffs last year without) There are going to be some hiccups. The greatness of Paul and Roy has actually covered up some bumpy starts for everyone else. I expect us to climb into top 10 of the efficiency ratings by the new year and we will do that while maintaining the number 1 defense.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    PG and Lance have just been getting really good looks from three. Maybe they take one or two threes that they shouldn't have, but they are both hitting them at such a high clip I'm ok with it. Both percentages will drop certainly, Lance's more for sure just because 55% from 3 is insane.

    The attempts will drop as well. I'm not really concerned though because to me it doesn't feel like Lance or PG are really relying on the 3 to be good. Both are attacking the basket. PG has shown such a complete game this year.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    You turnover the ball the more closer you get to the basket. And that is why we have open shots. Teams are clamping down on us in the paint. They are pressuring bigs. Digging down and shifting over to stop the roll and pop off of picks. So as long as we are hitting the threes we are ok. Our bigs have to take care of the ball. That means Scola should stop passing to Ian. And Roy needs to keep the ball high.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    I'm not a fan of the strategy of shooting a lot of 3's, but most of the ones they have taken have been good looks.



    ....there have been a few PG 3's where he took it with a defender right in his face that I wouldn't call good looks, but then he swished them, so what do I know?

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Awesome View Post
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    I'm not a fan of the strategy of shooting a lot of 3's, but most of the ones they have taken have been good looks.



    ....there have been a few PG 3's where he took it with a defender right in his face that I wouldn't call good looks, but then he swished them, so what do I know?
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    When you're 6'10" with a high smooth release you are rarely ever truly guarded.

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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    Quote Originally Posted by mattie View Post
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    Even with the exceptional shooting so far, the Pacers oRTG is currently 18th in the league through the first 4 games. That is not good.
    Turnovers are probably dragging them down, right?
    Quote Originally Posted by vnzla81
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    Larry is not coming back, he didn't have a meeting with Orlando for not reason, yeah he is coming back to the NBA but not to the Pacers, the notion that he is a taking a year off and then come back is absurd.
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  42. #25
    George Hill Apologist mattie's Avatar
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    Default Re: Live by the 3, die by the 3

    I mean that has to part of it right? I don't really understand why everything isn't going as smoothly. I mean, there just seems to be some times during the game where the offense dies just like last year. I dunno if that is all just to freethrows and turnovers or not. Who knows.
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