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Last edited by BenR1990; 03-18-2015, 07:36 PM. -
Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
If it makes anyone feel better, according to Hollinger's computer/algorithm that plays out 5,000 potential outcomes of the remaining schedule nightly, Pacers are still slotted in at 7 with a 63% chance of making the playoffs finishing with 38 wins.
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
True, but the predicted 38 wins is tied with Miami who's at 8, 1 win ahead of Boston at 9th, and 2 wins ahead of Charlotte at 10th. So it's still the slimmest of slim margins. I'm not sure how to reconcile that with the 63% probability of making the playoffs. Intuitively with such a thin margin, you'd think the probabilities would be tighter.
And oh, 3 non-playoff teams in the West project to have a higher record than the Pacers. Hurray
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
That's good, though, for if we just miss the playoffs we can still be near the top ten in the draft. Small consolation prize, but a consolation prize nonetheless.Comment
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Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.Comment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
Only one more loss to spare in Group B. We probably weren’t going to get Chicago in a more vulnerable state on their home floor but when Mike Dunleavy goes off for 20 plus, things just aren’t going you’re way. Defense was bad again last night. Not sure where the break downs are occurring exactly. Three straight opponents have scored at ease against us now though. This coming off of a near historic stretch of suffocating defense makes it even more perplexing. The good news is we are still on pace and will remain so until at least Saturday because I have Friday marked up as an L also. So long as the defense has a good showing Friday I’d consider it progress. Saturday is a must win if the .500 hopes are to remain alive.
Group A (2-3)
Atlanta (L) Dallas (H) Golden State (W) Memphis (A) New Orleans (W) Sacramento (L) San Antonio (L)
Prediction: (3-4)
Group B (7-7)
Boston (L,A) Brooklyn (H,A) Chicago (W,L) Detroit (W,A) Houston (L ,H) Miami (L,H) Milwaukee (W,A) Oklahoma City (L,H) Orlando (2W) Philadelphia (2W) Toronto (2L) Washington (A,H)
Prediction: (16-8)
Group C (3-1)
Charlotte (L,W,H) Cleveland (2W,A)
Prediction: (3-3)
Group D (3-0)
New York (3W,A)
Prediction: (4-0)
Overall pace through twenty-six games: (15-11)
Prediction: (15-11)
Various Stats-
Record at start of thread: 15-26
Current record: 30-37
Record needed from here on out for .500: 11-4
Predicted next 5 games: L,W,W,L,W
Playoff chase: 6th – 3.5 behind, 7th - 1 behind, 8th – 0 games behindComment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
The Pacers now need to finish 11-3 to get to .500.
I think you can put a fork in this one.Comment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
but PG is coming back and when that happens, no more losses...instant title.
Spoiler:
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
I wanted to see progress and last night certainly was. Defense was better and Roy finally had a good offensive game without forcing it. David should have sat out. The 12 minutes he played he was a -19 plus/minus. And we still had a shot to win in the final 30 seconds. It was a step in the right direction by nearly all accords. 11-3 from here on out sounds impossible but it's right where I had us at when I started the thread. These next 5 games are a key stretch. Get through them 3-2 and then the schedule lightens up again.
MUST WIN tonight. Brooklyn on back to back after triple overtime and longer travel. We can't choke this game away.
Group A (2-3)
Atlanta (L) Dallas (H) Golden State (W) Memphis (A) New Orleans (W) Sacramento (L) San Antonio (L)
Prediction: (3-4)
Group B (7-7)
Boston (L,A) Brooklyn (H,A) Chicago (W,L) Detroit (W,A) Houston (L ,H) Miami (L,H) Milwaukee (W,A) Oklahoma City (L,H) Orlando (2W) Philadelphia (2W) Toronto (2L) Washington (A,H)
Prediction: (16-8)
Group C (3-2)
Charlotte (L,W,H) Cleveland (2W,L)
Prediction: (3-3)
Group D (3-0)
New York (3W,A)
Prediction: (4-0)
Overall pace through twenty-seven games: (15-12)
Prediction: (15-12)
Various Stats-
Record at start of thread: 15-26
Current record: 30-38
Record needed from here on out for .500: 11-3
Predicted next 5 games: W,W,L,W,L
Playoff chase: 6th – 3.5 behind, 7th - 2 behind, 8th – 0 games behind
Sent from my Verizon Wireless 4G LTE smartphoneComment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
3 more losses kills this thing. That is all.
Group A (2-3)
Atlanta (L) Dallas (H) Golden State (W) Memphis (A) New Orleans (W) Sacramento (L) San Antonio (L)
Prediction: (3-4)
Group B (7-8)
Boston (L,A) Brooklyn (L,A) Chicago (W,L) Detroit (W,A) Houston (L ,H) Miami (L,H) Milwaukee (W,A) Oklahoma City (L,H) Orlando (2W) Philadelphia (2W) Toronto (2L) Washington (A,H)
Prediction: (16-8)
Group C (3-2)
Charlotte (L,W,H) Cleveland (2W,L)
Prediction: (3-3)
Group D (3-0)
New York (3W,A)
Prediction: (4-0)
Overall pace through twenty-eight games: (15-13)
Prediction: (16-12)
Various Stats-
Record at start of thread: 15-26
Current record: 30-39
Record needed from here on out for .500: 11-2
Predicted next 5 games: W,L,W,L,W
Playoff chase: 6th – 3.5 behind, 7th - 2 behind, 8th – 0.5 games behindLast edited by Phree Refill; 03-23-2015, 11:29 AM.Comment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
Two more losses. TWO-WAHHH.
Group A (2-3)
Atlanta (L) Dallas (H) Golden State (W) Memphis (A) New Orleans (W) Sacramento (L) San Antonio (L)
Prediction: (3-4)
Group B (7-9)
Boston (L,A) Brooklyn (L,A) Chicago (W,L) Detroit (W,A) Houston (2L) Miami (L,H) Milwaukee (W,A) Oklahoma City (L,H) Orlando (2W) Philadelphia (2W) Toronto (2L) Washington (A,H)
Prediction: (16-8)
Group C (3-2)
Charlotte (L,W,H) Cleveland (2W,L)
Prediction: (3-3)
Group D (3-0)
New York (3W,A)
Prediction: (4-0)
Overall pace through twenty-nine games: (15-14)
Prediction: (17-12)
Various Stats-
Record at start of thread: 15-26
Current record: 30-40
Record needed from here on out for .500: 11-1
Predicted next 5 games: L,W,L,W,W
Playoff chase: 6th – 4 behind, 7th - 2 behind, 8th – 1 behindComment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
With the Indy .500 dream all but dead, it's time for an updated look at playoff projections:
Milwaukee:
Free: 3
Push: 5 (vs. Miami, vs. Indiana, @ Boston, vs. Brooklyn, vs. Boston)
Challenge: 4
Projected finish: 7-5
Projected final record: 41-41
Projected seed: 6
Miami:
Free: 2
Push: 4 (@ Milwaukee, @ Boston, @ Indiana, vs. Charlotte)
Challenge: 7
Projected finish: 3-10
Projected final record: 35-47
Projected seed: 9
Boston:
Free: 2
Push: 5 (vs. Miami, @ Charlotte, vs. Indiana, vs. Milwaukee, @ Milwaukee)
Challenge: 5
Projected finish: 5-7
Projected final record: 36-46
Projected seed: 8
Charlotte:
Free: 3
Push: 4 (vs. Brooklyn, vs. Boston, @ Indiana, @ Miami)
Challenge: 6
Projected finish: 6-7
Projected final record: 36-46
Projected seed: 7
Indiana:
Free: 2
Push: 5 (@ Milwaukee, @ Brooklyn, @ Boston, vs. Charlotte, vs. Miami)
Challenge: 5
Projected finish: 4-8
Projected final record: 34-48
Projected seed: 10
Brooklyn:
Free: 3
Push: 3 (@ Charlotte, vs. Indiana, @ Milwaukee)
Challenge: 7
Projected finish: 4-9
Projected final record: 33-49
Projected seed: 11
Needless to say, it doesn't look good for us. We pretty much need to sweep the Free and Push categories.Comment
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Re: .500 finish very attainable: "Is this the one, Quinn?! Is this the one?!!!
It comes down to what we do against Charlotte, Brooklyn and Boston when we play them coming up. The teams will beat each other up, as they play each other as well, but if we can get those 3 games (plus the 2 "free" and one other) 36 wins with the tie breaker prob gets you 8th seed.Comment
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