Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • cgg
    yawn
    • Jun 2006
    • 2981

    #121
    Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

    Originally posted by BlueNGold
    Good post. I don't know how many times I have seen invalid conclusions drawn from valid statistical information...but where the bigger picture is either not seen or purposefully ignored. Reality just has too many factors and that's why real statisticians often have PhD's.
    Again, I DID NOT make any conclusion.
    "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

    Comment

    • Tom White
      Member
      • Jan 2004
      • 5705

      #122
      Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

      Originally posted by cgg
      Stats show trends that can be investigated further with tape.
      If you pay attention to watching the game, your eyes will tell you all you need to know without having to pour through a bunch of stats.

      Stats can be manipulated to say whatever a person wants them to say.

      Basketball is not a complicated game. People just try to make it more complicated than it is.

      Comment

      • xIndyFan
        Member
        • Dec 2010
        • 5457

        #123
        Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

        Whenever I read about how good a defender Lance is, the game vs the Kings in January comes to mind.

        http://on.nba.com/1qpIF3q 11:45 - First play of the game. Lance gets screened by a half-assed screen by Jason Thompson and Thornton missed a open jumper.

        http://on.nba.com/1qpJLfz 11:14 - Lance standing around and watching Thornton go to the rim and get a 1 ft tip in.

        http://on.nba.com/1qpKnlt 10:17 - Lance getting picked by Jason Thompson and Thornton hitting a jump shot.

        http://on.nba.com/1qpKIo8 9:49 - Lance going under a pick and Thornton missing an open 3 pointer.

        http://on.nba.com/1qpNb26 8:21 - Lance playing follow the leader with Thornton around a couple of picks and Thornton making a real nice running hook.

        http://on.nba.com/1qpNKZN 6:26 - Lance sticking to an Aaron Gray pick like they were both wearing velcro and Thornton making a corner 3.

        After that, Lance got switched to covering Outlaw. Hey, I get it. Thornton is a good offensive player. But there were just too many nights like this where Lance just got stuck on every pick or played follow the leader around picks for him to be an above average defender. I think Zach watched him vs LeBron and extrapolated his defense a little.

        Comment

        • Tom White
          Member
          • Jan 2004
          • 5705

          #124
          Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

          Originally posted by cgg
          Lance also was a net overall positive when you include the ortg. I doubt he would have had a negative drtg if he hadn't played with Turner. I don't think it was negative last year. Scola was only a little bit negative.

          I think the only meaningful comparison is Granger at +7.9 drtg to Turner at -7.7. That seems like a really big swing for what should have been the same place in the rotation.
          OK. We have more acronims from the dictionary of stats.

          For those of us who prefer to just watch the game, can you tell us what ortg and drtg mean?

          Comment

          • Kstat
            Rebound King
            • Jan 2004
            • 34231

            #125
            Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

            Offensive rating and defensive rating. Not particularly reliable statistics.

            Analytics in basketball are pretty much crap. Far behind baseball and football. It seems every other day someone comes out with a new stat that either doesn't reveal anything new or completely misrepresents what it's trying to calculate.
            Last edited by Kstat; 07-19-2014, 04:56 PM.

            It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

            Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
            Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
            NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

            Comment

            • Nuntius
              Member
              • Jan 2012
              • 35970

              #126
              Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

              Originally posted by Tom White
              If you pay attention to watching the game, your eyes will tell you all you need to know without having to pour through a bunch of stats.
              That's not true. Some people only see what they want to see and that makes the eye test unreliable as the only piece of evidence. The eye test is too dependent on someone's personal biases.

              Statistical data is not manipulated by personal biases that easily.
              Originally posted by IrishPacer
              Empty vessels make the most noise.

              Comment

              • Ace E.Anderson
                Member
                • Dec 2011
                • 18261

                #127
                Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                Originally posted by xIndyFan
                Whenever I read about how good a defender Lance is, the game vs the Kings in January comes to mind.

                http://on.nba.com/1qpIF3q 11:45 - First play of the game. Lance gets screened by a half-assed screen by Jason Thompson and Thornton missed a open jumper.

                http://on.nba.com/1qpJLfz 11:14 - Lance standing around and watching Thornton go to the rim and get a 1 ft tip in.

                http://on.nba.com/1qpKnlt 10:17 - Lance getting picked by Jason Thompson and Thornton hitting a jump shot.

                http://on.nba.com/1qpKIo8 9:49 - Lance going under a pick and Thornton missing an open 3 pointer.

                http://on.nba.com/1qpNb26 8:21 - Lance playing follow the leader with Thornton around a couple of picks and Thornton making a real nice running hook.

                http://on.nba.com/1qpNKZN 6:26 - Lance sticking to an Aaron Gray pick like they were both wearing velcro and Thornton making a corner 3.

                After that, Lance got switched to covering Outlaw. Hey, I get it. Thornton is a good offensive player. But there were just too many nights like this where Lance just got stuck on every pick or played follow the leader around picks for him to be an above average defender. I think Zach watched him vs LeBron and extrapolated his defense a little.
                Lowe is an admitted Lance lover and isn't exactly subjective about him.

                Edit: before BnG or anyone else misconstrues my words, I think Lance is a pretty good on ball defender when he puts in the effort
                Last edited by Ace E.Anderson; 07-19-2014, 05:15 PM.

                Comment

                • lolwuttermelons
                  Member
                  • Feb 2013
                  • 492

                  #128
                  Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                  Originally posted by Kstat
                  Offensive rating and defensive rating. Not particularly reliable statistics.

                  Analytics in basketball are pretty much crap. Far behind baseball and football. It seems every other day someone comes out with a new stat that either doesn't reveal anything new or completely misrepresents what it's trying to calculate.
                  How are ORTG and DRTG not reliable? All they show is how much a team scores/allows per possession, presented in 100 possessions because it looks nicer

                  Comment

                  • Kstat
                    Rebound King
                    • Jan 2004
                    • 34231

                    #129
                    Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                    Originally posted by lolwuttermelons
                    How are ORTG and DRTG not reliable? All they show is how much a team scores/allows per possession, presented in 100 possessions because it looks nicer
                    Because you can't fairly apply that to individual players. Some players get platooned with other players, and some get used situationally.

                    It's like jvg's point about statistical "data" deciphering PnR defense. Some teams don't even run PnRs for the direct purpose of scoring a basket. So how are you supposed to grade that?

                    Shot charts are the worst. If the entire nba was a standstill shooting contest, then maybe they would be valid.

                    Basketball analytics is in it's infancy and most of the formulas out there are garbage that don't indicate what they promise.
                    Last edited by Kstat; 07-19-2014, 05:55 PM.

                    It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

                    Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
                    Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
                    NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

                    Comment

                    • Tom White
                      Member
                      • Jan 2004
                      • 5705

                      #130
                      Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                      Originally posted by Nuntius
                      That's not true. Some people only see what they want to see and that makes the eye test unreliable as the only piece of evidence. The eye test is too dependent on someone's personal biases.

                      Statistical data is not manipulated by personal biases that easily.
                      Appreciate the reply, but we'll just have to disagree.

                      I suppose if you are watching the game with the intent to pounce on every mistake by a particular player you likely have a point. But if you are watching it out of the pleasure of the game you should have no biases.

                      Comment

                      • Tom White
                        Member
                        • Jan 2004
                        • 5705

                        #131
                        Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                        Originally posted by lolwuttermelons
                        How are ORTG and DRTG not reliable? All they show is how much a team scores/allows per possession, presented in 100 possessions because it looks nicer
                        Cgg was using them as applied to individual players.

                        Comment

                        • Nuntius
                          Member
                          • Jan 2012
                          • 35970

                          #132
                          Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                          Originally posted by Kstat
                          Because you can't fairly apply that to individual players. Some players get platooned with other players, and some get used situationally.
                          And that's exactly why ORTG and DRTG shouldn't be used to measure an individual player. They are a team stat and it's a mistake when people use them as an individual stat, imo.
                          Last edited by Nuntius; 07-19-2014, 07:07 PM.
                          Originally posted by IrishPacer
                          Empty vessels make the most noise.

                          Comment

                          • Nuntius
                            Member
                            • Jan 2012
                            • 35970

                            #133
                            Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                            Originally posted by Tom White
                            Appreciate the reply, but we'll just have to disagree.

                            I suppose if you are watching the game with the intent to pounce on every mistake by a particular player you likely have a point. But if you are watching it out of the pleasure of the game you should have no biases.
                            Look at this forum and tell me that people here watch basketball "for the pleasure of the game". Everyone has biases.
                            Originally posted by IrishPacer
                            Empty vessels make the most noise.

                            Comment

                            • cgg
                              yawn
                              • Jun 2006
                              • 2981

                              #134
                              Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                              Originally posted by Tom White
                              Cgg was using them as applied to individual players.
                              I didn't mean for that particular post to be taken seriously. Dry humor perhaps.
                              Last edited by cgg; 07-19-2014, 07:05 PM.
                              "Danny Granger is one of the top players in the league. To move Danny, you better get a lot back." - Larry Bird

                              Comment

                              • Tom White
                                Member
                                • Jan 2004
                                • 5705

                                #135
                                Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

                                Originally posted by cgg
                                I didn't mean for that particular post to be taken seriously. Dry human perhaps.
                                Dry human? Well then, someone needs a drink!

                                Comment

                                Working...