Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

[joew8302]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

The two most overrated parts of Lance's game. Lance was average to bad on defense last year, and most of Lance's rebounds were not of the kind where he is boxing his guy out and fighting for a rebound. There should be little to no drop off in both of those areas.

If what you are saying is true that means a guy like Roy will average more because the Roy defenders Lance always stole his rebounds, right?

[Eleazar]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

There's no replacing the rebounding (or rebound stealing, haha) and defense that the Pacers are losing with Lance gone but I definitely think the offense should be better than it was last year.

The two most overrated parts of Lance's game. Lance was average to bad on defense last year, and most of Lance's rebounds were not of the kind where he is boxing his guy out and fighting for a rebound. There should be little to no drop off in both of those areas.

[Rogco]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Just remember Danny before his knee injury. Put an undersized guy on him and Danny instantly took him into the post.

I'd forgotten about that! It would get frustrating sometimes as he had a habit of not realizing when to pass out, but he was really good at posting up.

GHill can post guys, but no one ever seemed to be able to get him the ball when he did. Being a power post team means posting all your guys, not just your bigs.

Problem with Hill posting is if the other team is putting in the effort, they'll just come double team him. He's quite good at it, but he was just awful in the double team.

Agree with you 100%, and it's not just about posting up either, it's about being physical with drives into the lane. I think Hill can do a good job of lane penetration if he becomes more aggressive. I'm still not sold on PG as his handles didn't improve nearly as much last year as I hoped. Still, to me, it all boils down to whether we get October - January Hibbert or February through May Hibbert. I still think we went inside less and less because Hibbert was so ineffective with his bad hands, bad shots, and inability to pass (for the last 4 months.)

[aamcguy]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

By crashing the boards and getting extra possessions. The 12'-13' team proved that can be successful. Hibbert has never been an efficient post player. But you get extra possessions and keep hammering. That team led the league in points in the paint. Led the league in Rebounding.

Don't you think we were the easiest team to defend in the league last year? All we did was settle for pull up long jumpers. Teams made us one-dimensional and the Pacers were all too happy to shoot the same shots we want to force our opponents into.. Long range 2's.

Thats why Vogel is the most maddening of coaches in my opinion. Defense: Cover the paint and perimeter and force long 2's. Offense: settle for long 2's. Even Scola and West's bread and butter jumpers were long 2's toward the end of the season because defenses were forcing our PnR higher and higher.

I was thinking the same thing all of last year, and it was infuriating. You'd watch our defense hold our opposition come down by shooting some insane 20-ft. fade away shot, then lance or pg would go down to the other end and do the same thing with 8 seconds left on the shotclock against Philly.

[xIndyFan]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

How does this team become an effective power post team with a center that shoots less than 45% and rarely is able to establish position and receive the ball within the painted area? Or with a power forward whose effectiveness in the post is inconsistent from game to game and very match-up dependent?

This team will be toast next year if it makes post feeds to Hibbert & West a point of specific emphasis. We will be the easiest team in the league to defend.

Being a power post team is more than just the big's posting. It is being able to post 1 thru 5 if a guy is defended by a minus defender. Teams get away guarding Paul with guys that are 6 inches shorter all the time. Just remember Danny before his knee injury. Put an undersized guy on him and Danny instantly took him into the post. Paul either couldn't or wouldn't use his height advantage last season. Lance has good size at the 2, but didn't want to post either. He'd rather use his size off the bounce instead. GHill can post guys, but no one ever seemed to be able to get him the ball when he did. Being a power post team means posting all your guys, not just your bigs.

[naptownmenace]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

If we look anything like the post ASG Pacers we were last year… and have replaced Lance Stephenson with CJ Miles and Rodney Stuckey- two terrible ball handlers- we will not make the playoffs. I tend to think we will be a better team than that Jekyll version of the Pacers we saw in 2014 and for most of the playoffs, but I'm not sure of that. I'm not sure where the "jolt of creativity" comes from in this group. It is hard to imagine this team, as currently constructed, being much fun to watch.

I disagree that Stuckey is a terrible ball handler. He's very good at creating his own offense off the dribble. It's actually what he does best. CJ Miles isn't a good creator for others but he can create space with his dribble to get his own jumper off. He's basically a younger Rasual Butler.

The offense with Lance last year was brutal to watch at times and the spacing was bad a lot of times. There's no replacing the rebounding (or rebound stealing, haha) and defense that the Pacers are losing with Lance gone but I definitely think the offense should be better than it was last year.

[Pacerized]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

How does this team become an effective power post team with a center that shoots less than 45% and rarely is able to establish position and receive the ball within the painted area? Or with a power forward whose effectiveness in the post is inconsistent from game to game and very match-up dependent?

This team will be toast next year if it makes post feeds to Hibbert & West a point of specific emphasis. We will be the easiest team in the league to defend.

I couldn't disagree more with the last part of your post.
Our offense was at it's most effective when we would play from the inside out. Very few teams can defend Hibbert and West in the paint. I know Hibbert struggled at the end of the season but he's shown that he can be effective when we include him in the offensive plan. Hibbert and West are also very good passers for big men. We need to establish our post game to start every game which will open up the perimeter and we have the tools to do it. Our struggles started when Vogel gave the reins to Lance and Paul which turned us into a jump shooting team.

[graphic-er]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

How does this team become an effective power post team with a center that shoots less than 45% and rarely is able to establish position and receive the ball within the painted area? Or with a power forward whose effectiveness in the post is inconsistent from game to game and very match-up dependent?

This team will be toast next year if it makes post feeds to Hibbert & West a point of specific emphasis. We will be the easiest team in the league to defend.

By crashing the boards and getting extra possessions. The 12'-13' team proved that can be successful. Hibbert has never been an efficient post player. But you get extra possessions and keep hammering. That team led the league in points in the paint. Led the league in Rebounding.

Don't you think we were the easiest team to defend in the league last year? All we did was settle for pull up long jumpers. Teams made us one-dimensional and the Pacers were all too happy to shoot the same shots we want to force our opponents into.. Long range 2's.

Thats why Vogel is the most maddening of coaches in my opinion. Defense: Cover the paint and perimeter and force long 2's. Offense: settle for long 2's. Even Scola and West's bread and butter jumpers were long 2's toward the end of the season because defenses were forcing our PnR higher and higher.

[xIndyFan]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

That's because this team abandoned its power post identity for the better part of last year. We became a jump shooting team and our bigs were not happy about that at all.

Let's hope that this is going to change this season.

Wanted to thank this again. It is the most important part of next season, at least imo.

Quoted for the truth. I'm not sure why Frank allowed it to happen. It was Frank's biggest failure as a coach last year. I dunno if he felt the pressure to feature PG and Lance more, or just hard to argue against the early results the team was having. The team from 2 years ago was gritty, physical, and just plain executed from the post. Throw it down there and go to work. Crash the boards and get easy put backs. It was one ugly mo-fo of an offense, but our players were proud and wore it like a badge of honor! The power post should return in my opinion.

JMO, but the reason this was allowed to happen was pretty straight forward. Danny got hurt and Paul had to become a SF instead of a SG. Post ups were a strong part of Danny's game. They are not a big part of Paul's. Paul can post SG's well enough, but his post game is basically useless against most of the SF in the league. Lance can post, but evidently doesn't really like to. With both the Pacer wings uninterested/unable to post anyone, the Pacers just became a jump shooting team.

Paul's post game or lack of same is going to be a very important key to the success this team will have next season. If he can post guys, then teams will be unable to get away with guarding him with all the undersized guys they did last season.

[wintermute]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

Edit- I'm a huge fan of what CJ Miles has become. Love his game. This is a guy I see who could have found his spot on a playoff contender. In Cleveland it wasn't the best situation, but maybe here, like Danny Green in SAS, I think he's really going to play well. We needed this. A healthy, shooter in his prime ready to do one thing, hit threes!

Hmm, maybe I didn't pay enough attention to Miles last year. From what I remember before, he was kind of meh. Right now, I have higher hopes for Solo developing into a 3 and D guy (on practically zero evidence, LOL). But I hope you're right!

[Rogco]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

It's funny the massive range of opinion of the Pacers going into the season. Some view losing Lance as a bonus, though I personally can't figure out why. He led the team in field goal percentage, rebounds and assists last year, and was the only player we had who could handle a double team. People accuse him of being a ball-hog, but statistically, both PG and Hill were bigger ball hogs that Lance, both had the ball more and held it longer, and both had lower assist ratios and shooting percentage after handling the ball. There are things I like about Hill and things I don't, but I think he's bad in the playoffs when teams ramp up defensive pressure because he just can't handle it. You double team Hill and he looks lost.

However, it really does all boil down to Hibbert. If he plays like he did for the first three months of last year then I think we're fine because we can play with more of an inside to out mentality. However, if Roy continues to play like he did for the last 4 months, we're totally screwed and I'd say about a 40 win team.

[mattie]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

The rest of what you say may make sense, but I thought we scored pretty well in the first half of this year.

Look at the monthly splits for 13-14 (or if you prefer, pre AS vs post AS). I also put in the 11-12 splits for reference.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2014/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2012/splits/

(Looking at PPG isn't perfect, but I'm not going to calculate per possession ORTG for these numbers. PPG will have to do.)

It seems obvious that 13-14's numbers are dragged down by that disastrous stretch in March. All the other months are comparable to most months of 11-12, except for the hot stretch in April 2012. So really what we need to do is capture what went well in April 2012, and replicate that in the upcoming season's roster (we have to).

I do think you may have a point about shooting though. Our hot start this year was fueled by some insane shooting from PG and Lance. If our new shooters can consistently hit the 3 ball... well, we could be this season's Portland. Unfortunately we don't have a Lillard to break down the defense so I dunno.

EDIT: I found the thread were we discussed a similar topic

http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?88904-Live-by-the-3-die-by-the-3

Interesting to read back on.

That was interesting reading our perspective from the start of the season...

Who knows what will happen, but to perfectly honest, this years potential starting lineup, of Hill/Miles/PG/West/Roy should be my favorite starting lineup the Pacers will have EVER put together. Not saying it will work, my predictions are about as accurate as a broken clock is right, but I'm guessing it will.

I think Miles is going to be our Danny Green light, I think PG is our ball dominate perimeter player, I think Hill will have no problem throwing up 15-5 which is all we need from a point guard. We need nothing really from Roy on offense. I think West will play as well as we can expect- a good open jump shooter, and a solid post option. I think that can be a 12-8 ranked team on offense. And that would be good enough to make this team great.

I really see Vogel giving Copeland a chance to be a major contributor and I think he can. Vogel let Scola play his minutes this year because history told us, that at least up to date, Scola was clearly the better player. Well, after Scola's sub-par season I don't see why Vogel wouldn't give Copeland a chance. I also suspect, given the opportunity, that there is no reason Copeland can't be a valuable knockdown shooter off the bench. Like Ryan Anderson but not as good. Why not? We finally have all the tools. This team will continue to play defense but now I think they can score. I really do.

Edit- I'm a huge fan of what CJ Miles has become. Love his game. This is a guy I see who could have found his spot on a playoff contender. In Cleveland it wasn't the best situation, but maybe here, like Danny Green in SAS, I think he's really going to play well. We needed this. A healthy, shooter in his prime ready to do one thing, hit threes!

[wintermute]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

This is probably closer to the truth- The Pacers offense was poorly designed last year because Lance was simply a bad fit. He didn't work. Remember the first half of the season?? The Pacers didn't score that well. They were ok, but not that well. I think they were ranked 20th in those first 20 games. And that was with Paul George playing at an ungodly level! PG came down to earth and the team imploded. It wasn't sustainable. There were a lot more issues in that locker room that made the second half turn into a nightmare, but I think the offense was poorly contructed.

The rest of what you say may make sense, but I thought we scored pretty well in the first half of this year.

Look at the monthly splits for 13-14 (or if you prefer, pre AS vs post AS). I also put in the 11-12 splits for reference.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2014/splits/

http://www.basketball-reference.com/teams/IND/2012/splits/

(Looking at PPG isn't perfect, but I'm not going to calculate per possession ORTG for these numbers. PPG will have to do.)

It seems obvious that 13-14's numbers are dragged down by that disastrous stretch in March. All the other months are comparable to most months of 11-12, except for the hot stretch in April 2012. So really what we need to do is capture what went well in April 2012, and replicate that in the upcoming season's roster (we have to).

I do think you may have a point about shooting though. Our hot start this year was fueled by some insane shooting from PG and Lance. If our new shooters can consistently hit the 3 ball... well, we could be this season's Portland. Unfortunately we don't have a Lillard to break down the defense so I dunno.

EDIT: I found the thread were we discussed a similar topic

http://www.pacersdigest.com/showthread.php?88904-Live-by-the-3-die-by-the-3

Interesting to read back on.

[mattie]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

And for those saying they aren't sure if Hill will be aggressive with the ball in his hands? There is no question if he will. HE DID. Prior to last year he was third on the team in scoring, and was second on the team in Clutch scoring according to 82games.com. (last five minutes, teams within 5 points of eachother).

The only difference is, how much better would Hill have looked if he had CJ Miles nailing threes instead of Lance doing little in the 2012-13 season? Or consider the massive improvements of Paul George from 2012-13 to what we can expect from him this upcoming season??

This is probably closer to the truth- The Pacers offense was poorly designed last year because Lance was simply a bad fit. He didn't work. Remember the first half of the season?? The Pacers didn't score that well. They were ok, but not that well. I think they were ranked 20th in those first 20 games. And that was with Paul George playing at an ungodly level! PG came down to earth and the team imploded. It wasn't sustainable. There were a lot more issues in that locker room that made the second half turn into a nightmare, but I think the offense was poorly contructed.

Put the ball back in Hills hand, put CJ Miles on the court... They also need to incorporate Chris Copeland. Just like what San ANtonio does, Copleand can be they guy they can hide on defense against certain teams. No reason he can't help stretch the defense against particular lineups.

Anywho. I believe in this team this upcoming year because I've seen them win in the past. So they'll do it again.



Edit - By the way, please don't misconstrue my comments as criticism of Lance. I personally love two way players and Lance has proven himself to be a solid two way player. I love his game. I love his attitude. I love his confidence. I wish he fit. He doesn't. Lance needs to play on a team with guys like Chandler Parsons as his teammates. He's a valuable player anywhere simply because he's such a good defender but he'd be even more valuable if he could be used for his strenths. A valuable ball handler who can get the ball to open shooters around him.

[Downtown Bang!]

Re: Zach Lowe on Lance and Pacer's loss

How does this team become an effective power post team with a center that shoots less than 45% and rarely is able to establish position and receive the ball within the painted area? Or with a power forward whose effectiveness in the post is inconsistent from game to game and very match-up dependent?

This team will be toast next year if it makes post feeds to Hibbert & West a point of specific emphasis. We will be the easiest team in the league to defend.