Well, I agree...
I just don't agree with the amount of times Reich uses the option to go for it.
Analytics are great, IF and WHEN they take into account the full dataset in a given situation. I'm not sure the "go for it/don't go for it" sheet takes those into account... or that Reich takes those into account. He's just too inclined to want to go for it. Like a 15 year old kid and his Madden game.
Colts 2021 Season thread
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^^ Yeah, with Henry done for the season, Taylor will likely lead the league.
And he's just fun to watch. He runs into the line and somehow - often comes out on the other side for another 7-10 yards.Leave a comment:
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It’s certainly fun to watch Taylor and know that we legit have one of the best offensive players in the league.
Some big time backs have come through Indy since the Colts moved here and it looks like he will be added to that list.Leave a comment:
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If going for it is so good for the game then just remove the FG from the game. Require teams to go for it or punt. Or only allow FG's when teams are outside of 20 yards from the goal... or whatever number the analytics prefer. Heck, do away with the punt. Isn't there a HS team that refuses to punt and has some insane winning percentage? I'm sure that's the reason. Let's implement that in the NFL.
Let's do away with the PAT kick and just require teams to go for two as well. That will help eliminate OT games since it's pretty likely teams will have varying rates of success going for two.
Same with the punt, it's technically a choice and therefore a source of strategic complexity that can be utilized. The recent-ish change to make touchbacks result in a 25 yd line start instead of 20 was an intelligent adjustment. Wouldn't mind seeing that changed to the 30 to emphasize the importance of accuracy and skill.
I like the idea of a PAT change but again, adding options not reducing them down to 1 in which you lose the excitement and intrigue surrounding the choice. Give an option to go for it from one distance for 2pts, a further distance to get 4. The unusual number also breaks up the math a bit ie being down 10 is no longer clearly a 2 possession game.
Options are good, not bad, so long as the existence of the options don't impact the flow and balance of the game overly much. If you don't care for the coach's handling of those options well that's an issue with the coaching.Leave a comment:
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If going for it is so good for the game then just remove the FG from the game. Require teams to go for it or punt. Or only allow FG's when teams are outside of 20 yards from the goal... or whatever number the analytics prefer. Heck, do away with the punt. Isn't there a HS team that refuses to punt and has some insane winning percentage? I'm sure that's the reason. Let's implement that in the NFL.
Let's do away with the PAT kick and just require teams to go for two as well. That will help eliminate OT games since it's pretty likely teams will have varying rates of success going for two.Leave a comment:
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I'm never going to agree with going for it as much as the Colts do. You put the points on the board that are there for the taking. If you're down like 24-0, then maybe you do go for it. But in almost all other cases, you kick the FG. You don't end a drive on zero points.
The caveat would be if you're on the 1" line. Or IOW, unless a QB sneak is a viable option (whether that is the play or not) then just kick the f'n FG.
And the Colts should've punted last Sunday rather than giftwrapping field position to the Titans.
Basically, there's a time to be aggressive and there's a time to play it traditionally. It's not a game of Madden, and the Colts aren't good enough to impose their will on the opponent on both sides of the ball. Leaving points on the field leaves no guarantee they'll get them back. And it risks the swing of momentum and giving the opponent life... The opposing offense can get new life by the Colts being stupid with the amount they go for it on 4th down.
From the beginning of the Reich era when he risked what at best was likely a tie, to gift the opposition the ball with just enough time to get in FG range and win, by stupidly going for it where anyone else would've punted... these bad decisions are part of his DNA.
How many wins has this stuff cost the Colts?Leave a comment:
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4th down... with a chance to take a 21 point lead with the FG. Or go for it...
What does Frank do? Go for it...
That sh-t bites the Colts more than it helps. And it really can bite against good teams. Especially with a team like the Colts where you're never really sure the defense isn't going to suddenly fold up and any points you leave on the field could come back to bite you.
VIrtually the ONLY plausible reason to not go for it in that situation--1yd to down, within their 5yd line--is if ending up with no points ends the game. You take a FG of and probably only if it gives you the lead with 1 minute or less remaining, then you take the lead and it's up to your D to make the last stand. Even then it's 50/50 which you choose, TBH, I'd go for the first and the TD against at least half the offenses in the league.Last edited by OneMoreYear; 11-05-2021, 01:00 AM.Leave a comment:
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4th down... with a chance to take a 21 point lead with the FG. Or go for it...
What does Frank do? Go for it...
That sh-t bites the Colts more than it helps. And it really can bite against good teams. Especially with a team like the Colts where you're never really sure the defense isn't going to suddenly fold up and any points you leave on the field could come back to bite you.
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IOW it's good seeing the execution is there, that means you are playing sound, well executed football until someone comes along that's good enough to outplay you. You have to start with that or won't get anywhere, and we have that.
Example: despite losing to playoff level teams, we've put together the best turnover differential, the best points off turnovers, an elite running game, an upper tier run defense, and an upper tier passing offense. Those things came amidst the losses, which shows that although on the wrong side of the W/L column, the engine is firing and it's firing well.
I AM disturbed by the trend of our pass defense going to pieces when teams go desperation mode against us. We are absolutely incapable of dealing with gunslingers. Even mediocre ones. When they air it out against us, be it recklessly, opposing offenses put up points lightning fast. We don't punish their big play attempts, and I don't like it because this defensive scheme is supposed to lock down deep throws. No lead is safe it seems, and there's no indication anything is being done to change that. If we have even a competent pass defense, one that can go into prevent and simply stop a few more plays, the ridiculous second half meltdowns we've seen end with us getting out alive...it's probable we'd be at 5-4, maybe even 6-3 with tie breaker over Titans.
The epic meltdown against the Ravens for ex... We allowed him to complete NINETY percent of his second half passes, DESPITE them being something like 13yds/pass. That's insane, we're talking beyond Brady numbers and approaching zero resistance. If we are competent to even break up a handful of those downfield bombs, we win. It's all in place, this team and a lot of it is bordering elite, but that deep ball pass defense is essentially non-existent, capable only of playing off the receivers, reacting after the catch and tackling. There is zero prevention happening.
The rest of the team is THAT good.Last edited by OneMoreYear; 11-05-2021, 12:31 AM.Leave a comment:
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There’s no doubt this team looks good against opponents who aren’t much. Good win, but I’m not believing until they beat an opponent worth something.Leave a comment:
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There should be something called the anti-dynasty...a dynasty of awfulness. The Jets would have a legendary anti-dynasty.Leave a comment:
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Frank Reich….let’s be cute and run some trick plays at the goal line.
Jonathon Taylor….or you could let me run it.
Colts in a nutshell.Leave a comment:
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I do not feel sorry for the Jets. Not one bit. They are embarrassment to the entire NFL.Leave a comment:
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Good point. I was ready to post same idea when I got to your post. The losses against TN and Ravens are very similar to the two you identify from last season. Picture perfect opportunities to get a win against a good team that will legitimately push you to another level. And you lay an egg despite the opponent leaving the door open time and again.
So, we've changed QBs and purportedly upgraded personnel (to an extent), yet we're getting similar results. So what's holding us back? Coaching? QB play? Lack of talent? All of the above? What needs to be done to try and take the next step beyond that?
While injuries have challenged certain position groups (particularly WR and DB), every team deals with them and (on paper) I think there's enough talent on the roster to expect it to win some of these signature game opportunities. The only possible exceptions I see are QB play and our now several-season's long inability (for whatever reason) not to generate some semblance of consistent pass rush from the front 4.
P.S. - I suppose OL has underachieved somewhat this year. And injuries have hampered us somewhat. The pass protection particularly looks iffy at times. Even since some of our projected starters have returned. Not terribly bad in run game though.
Good analysis. I think it’s a combo of everything. We just aren’t good enough across the board.
I kept wanting to believe last year that we could be a true contender. I’ve kept wanting to believe this year that we could turn the corner and make a push. But at the end of the day these teams keep letting us down. I fully expect us to climb to 5-5 (we really suck if we can’t do that), but I’m determined to not allow myself to fall into the trap of believing in this team because they will quickly come back to Earth after the next two games.
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