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Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

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  • #1

    Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

    It was posted 3 hours ago in the NBA Couchside blog. Here's the full article:

    Continuing my series projecting the 2013-14 NBA regular season using xRAPM and minutes projections, today I’ll be discussing the Indiana Pacers.

    The Pacers had a very strong starting group last year. According to Basketball-Reference, the Pacers starting five-man unit was fourth in the entire league in Net Points per 100 possessions among lineups that played at least 300 minutes together, clocking in at a sterling +12.1 points per 100 possessions. Over the course of an 82 game season, a +12.1 MOV translates to a roughly 72-win team. The Pacers’ five of George Hill, Lance Stephenson, Paul George, David West, and Roy Hibbert played over 1200 minutes together, ranking them as the second most played 5 man unit in the entire league, trailing only the Oklahoma City Thunder’s starting five of Russell Westbrook, Thabo Sefolosha, Kevin Durant, Serge Ibaka, and Kendrick Perkins. The Thunder’s starting five only managed a (still incredible) +10.7 Net Points per 100 possessions. Basically, the Pacers’ starting five players was arguably the best in the entire league, given the relatively large sample of minutes they played together and their excellence when they were on the floor.

    The Pacers’ problem was that their bench was pretty terrible. They gave pretty significant minutes to sub-replacement level players like D.J. Augustin, (-3.68 xRAPM), Gerald Green (-3.21), Orlando Johnson (-3.36), Sam Young (-4.94) and Dominic McGuire (-2.93). Well, this coming year that will no longer be the case. With the exception of Orlando Johnson, all of those guys will not be on the team next year. Instead, they’ve been replaced by C.J. Watson, Chris Copeland, Luis Scola, a returning Danny Granger, Donald Sloan (another below replacement player, but hey, you can’t win them all), and rookie Solomon Hill (who projects to be just above replacement level at -2.3). In addition, Orlando Johnson projects to be better this year, as he progresses upward in his career trajectory, though he’ll still likely be below replacement level. The Pacers starting five has gotten significant reinforcements. How much better will this make the Pacers?

    Well, there’s one more thing to worry about and that’s just how good will Danny Granger be when he returns to the floor. I have no way of knowing what Granger will look like in xRAPM should he return healthy. I don’t know if he will be the roughly +1 xRAPM player he was in just 5 games this year or if he will look more like the +2.5-3.0 player he has been over the two years prior. Tendinosis is a scary injury. So, I ran the projections using Granger’s bad numbers from last year and then again with a possession-weighted average of Granger’s last few seasons adjusted for his 30 year old age. Up first, what the Pacers look like with a significantly reduced (like last year) Granger playing about 63 games.

    Next year, the Pacers with a less-than-peak-effectiveness Granger look like a 55 win team. Given that they won 49 games last year, this might seem like a disappointing improvement considering how much better their bench has gotten this offseason. But a six-win improvement is very significant. That’s a 12% increase in wins. In addition, Paul George’s minutes projection is lower than his actual minutes from this past year by a shade under 400 minutes. So if George is able to play as many minutes as he did last year, the Pacers could be even better. Speaking of the Pacers being better, what would they look like if Granger comes back and plays like he did at his peak effectiveness?

    The Pacers now look like a 57 win team. This may be understating things for the Pacers, too. If Granger is playing like he did 2-3 years ago, chances are that means he’s basically healthy, so he’d likely play more than the 63 games he’s projected to play here. That would push the Pacers win total even closer to the very top of the Eastern Conference. The Pacers, with their revamped bench and the return of Danny Granger to the rotation, look to be a team firmly entrenched in the top 4 of the Eastern Conference. It looks more or less like a four way toss up for which team will be the East’s best in the regular season. For Pacers fans, the more encouraging part of this exercise is looking at how much better their bench now is, to complement their returning starting five, which was the league’s best last year. In the playoffs, the Pacers’ ability to shorten their rotations and play their best five players for longer periods of time is the reason, along with their superior interior play, that the Pacers were able to take the Miami Heat to the brink of elimination. The Pacers now have a bench with competent players to play minutes in the playoffs and not be totally overwhelmed. That change could be the difference between their falling short this postseason and an NBA Championship in the 2013-14 season.
    The blog has some interesting tables (along with PG's poster on Andersen ) so here's the link -> http://nbacouchside.com/post/5691338...indiana-pacers

    Via Kevin Ferrigan

    ---

    Reading the article makes me a happy fan
    Originally posted by IrishPacer
    Empty vessels make the most noise.
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

    55 was my target last year (with assuming DG would only miss a few games and be just fine). 49 was great given we didn't have him and our horrible start the first 25 games or so. Our midseason stride and playoff performance I think has left many forgetting how bad we were for nearly 1/3 of the year. 55 wins was attainable even with our historically awful bench and no Danny.

    Targeting 62 assuming health for Danny again. 55-57 sounds about right if not. And this is with a much stronger conference this time around, so winning those 55 would be a larger accomplishment.

    This team could knock on the 70 win door if it had the meager east the 61 win Pacers of 03 had.


    People should dream very big, because this team is capable of accomplishing the very big.

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    • #3
      Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

      I know I'm getting greedy because when I saw 55 I thought "Well that seems pretty low to me". Excited as hell for next season. I hope we can hit 60, although it will be very challenging.

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      • #4
        Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

        Sounds about right. Health permitting (of course), I can see them winning between 55-60+.

        Comment

        • #5
          This Pacers team is a lot like the San Francisco Giants. We are not built to win in the regular season, and I am cool with that. So long as we can get into the top half of the playoffs to secure first round home court, we have a legitimate shot in the playoffs because of how this team is designed. 49-57 wins would be great for me.


          Sent from #PacerNation using Tapatalk
          Senior at the University of Louisville.
          Greenfield ---> The Ville

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          • #6
            Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

            If I'm Frank Vogel, 55 is a minimum goal.
            Forever struggling to convince myself "In Larry we trust"
            Writer at NoseBleedSectionSports.com

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            • #7
              Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

              Originally posted by Steagles View Post
              This Pacers team is a lot like the San Francisco Giants. We are not built to win in the regular season, and I am cool with that. So long as we can get into the top half of the playoffs to secure first round home court, we have a legitimate shot in the playoffs because of how this team is designed. 49-57 wins would be great for me.


              Sent from #PacerNation using Tapatalk
              Why do you think we're not built to win in the regular season? I think we're built to win all the time, so to speak.

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              • #8
                Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                Originally posted by Hicks View Post
                Why do you think we're not built to win in the regular season? I think we're built to win all the time, so to speak.
                I don't think it is as much about build as it is consistency. Until Paul, Lance, and Roy, mostly Paul and Roy, can prove they are able to bring it consistently in the regular season there will be this feeling they "aren't built to win in the regular season". Honestly you are either built to win or you are not no matter what part of the season it is. It isn't about build but focus. Some players, mostly younger players, a lot of times tend to have focus problems over the course of an 82 game season.

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                • #9
                  Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                  Last year we had 49 wins, so an improved bench, improved health (DG) and improvement in our young players (Roy, PG, GHill) - Yes, 55 wins is within reach.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                    Originally posted by MyFavMartin View Post
                    Last year we had 49 wins, so an improved bench, improved health (DG) and improvement in our young players (Roy, PG, GHill) - Yes, 55 wins is within reach.
                    And 46 the year prior in a lockout shortened season.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                      The goal should be 60 wins.
                      Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

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                      • #12
                        Originally posted by Hicks View Post
                        Why do you think we're not built to win in the regular season? I think we're built to win all the time, so to speak.
                        We aren't a team like the Knicks. We don't have the flash that will spark long winning streaks from the offensive end. We do however have the lockdown defense to win in the gritty games of the playoffs. That's what I meant by that.


                        Sent from #PacerNation using Tapatalk
                        Senior at the University of Louisville.
                        Greenfield ---> The Ville

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                        • #13
                          Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                          I don't see how that makes sense and we'll probably have about as good or better an offense as them w/ Danny. We were ahead of them much of last year would've won more games if not for our horrible start (which can be excused for the last second news of Dannys absence and how it changed so many roles).

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                          • #14
                            Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                            My prediction for the upcoming season...

                            60+ wins in the regular season .
                            BUT if I were to go out on a limb and settle on a definitive number, it would be 66. Either way , this team will more than likely set a few records in the books.. My guess is team record for most regular season wins that the Pacers have ever had ..

                            As far as playoffs, if I were a betting man I would predict an Eastern Conference championship banner in a hard fought E.C. finals .

                            I will also go on the record to say, that if we do in fact win the East as I feel we should , we will ultimately win in the finals and bring home our first ever NBA Championship banner to the Fieldhouse ...

                            At the very, very least we will take the East and go to the Finals. And THAT I would still consider a success and at the same time being the last babystep in this Pacers team's development towards the ultimate goal of a championship.


                            I truly don't believe people actually realize , or can grasp how much a healthy Danny Granger will mean to this ball club ...


                            It would kinda be like the Heat suddenly adding Chris Paul or Dwight Howard to their existing team, as far as the impact one of those 2 would have to an already successful team..
                            (Note for those who only see and hear what they want to see and hear: ..... No I am not comparing DG to CP3 or DHoward , just the overall impact they would offer as an addition to the teams in example)

                            All I gotta say in closing, is that the Indiana Pacers will be a scary good team..... Nah scratch that , we will be a truly elite team that all the rest of the NBA teams will be scrambling , making moves to better match up to be able to try and beat us for years to come ...

                            It's a great feeling to be a Pacers fan right now . With everything we have had to endure since Reggie retired, THIS Indiana Pacers team , Vogel , Larry Legend and the front office is our just reward for sticking with our team through thick and thin as true blue fans ...
                            Our journey into greatness has only just begun for our beloved Pacers... only it is much much MUCH SWEETER for those of us who have been been here AND STAYED HERE since day 1 ..
                            Last edited by Kemo; 08-01-2013, 04:20 AM.
                            "Political Correctness is a doctrine fostered by a delusional, illogical minority, and rabidly promoted by an unscrupulous mainstream media which holds forth the proposition that it is entirely possible to pick up a turd by the clean end."

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                            • #15
                              Re: Pacers project as a 55-57 win team using xWARP

                              The question for me is this: Will the Pacers turn into a starting five of "shot creators" with even less passing than last year with Granger starting and being primarily the same jump shooter that he became prior to going down with tendinosis, and will the defense of the starters decline due to Granger not having the lateral quickness and overall explosiveness to stay in front of perimeter players?

                              I hope not, but I am very much afraid that both of these will be the case, which would yield a result that Granger's return is actually a detriment to the team and its future growth.

                              I really want the Pacers to still try to get a starting point guard, move Hill to the 2, and have Lance and Danny come off the bench. I know that this likely cannot happen without losing another significant piece, but I feel that the Pacers now are worse off with respect to ball and player movement as well as physical rebounding despite having improved the quality of individual players overall.

                              There will be a period of adjustment at the beginning of the season due in large part to everything being adjusted due to the return of Danny (assuming he in fact does return) which will be frustrating to watch even if Danny is back to his pre-injury though aging self, and the second unit guys will have to adjust their games to a more physical style than they are accustomed to playing.

                              With that said, the Pacers should still at least win 55, with 58-60 being within reach despite our defense being somewhat less effective than it was last year due to our increased focus on improving offensive performance independent of defensive stops producing fast break opportunities.

                              I do however expect that, barring continued injury issues, the Bulls will be in the low to mid 60's and quite possibly secure home court through the ECF in a tight race with the Heat, with only the healthy Thunder beating them for home court advantage in the Finals.

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