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2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

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  • #1

    2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

    With draft night 2013 rapidly approaching now, I am going to try and have a different draft piece ready every day thru Thursday. Today's 9th article in the series puts the game of Kelly Olynyk under the Tbird microscope. In previous articles this draft season, we've looked at a variety of players that are in the Pacers range, including Gorgui Dieng, Isaiah Canaan, Jeff Withey, and Jamaal Franklin among others. You can find all of those from this year and from previous seasons elsewhere on this site.

    Born 4/19/1991, the Canadian born and bred Olynyk just turned 22 years old this spring. He measured in at 7'0 tall at he NBA combine, weighing 234lbs. His body type is an early red flag on his NBA prospects, as he measured with very short arms, coming in with a wingspan of 6'9 3/4". While not a problem for the rest of humanity, that kind of "alligator arms" type discrepancy could potentially effect his effectiveness at the NBA level.

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    Offensively, Olynyk has some definite high level skills, some of which I believe translate well to the NBA but many others I would question.

    In the low post area, Olynyk, who is the son of a Canadian basketball coach, has obviously been taught to play very well. With his back to the basket, Olynyk does a ton of work BEFORE the catch, which enables him to establish position deeper and nearer to the basket, making the shots he ends up with much easier to make....which along with a really good natural touch has let him shoot an extraordinarily high percentage from the field. Olynyk doesn't seal his defenders with raw power and force, but instead uses nimble feet and very very good technique to keep his feel "dancing" in the post to keep the defenders on his back. it is impressive to watch.

    Also impressive is how smart Olynyk plays after he has caught the ball in the low post concerning (again) his footwork. Just like Gorgui Dieng DOESN'T DO, Olynyk drives his lead foot right between the defenders 2 legs, knocking them back and gaining angles which he can use for spin moves or jump hooks. His jump hook over his left shoulder is a particularly good looking move, and is the best so far I have seen in this draft. And obviously, the better your footwork is and the deeper you get to the basket, the easier shots are to make. Olynyk led this draft in shooting percentage, not because he got a bunch of dunks but because he knows how to play in the low post, despite less than NBA average athleticism.

    However, there are some flaws with his low post game too. First being that he is definitely a bad leaper and can't score over bigger people inside. He is one of those bigs that is going to have to score AROUND bigger people rather than over them, which is a problem. His short arms and lack of hops mean he will have to fadeaway on just about any turnaround jumper attempt inside, which will take away offensive rebound possibilities when he makes that kind of move. And as good as his jump hook was collegiately, he is so "finesse" and weak while doing it that I think NBA level defenders will take that away from him. I think the only he becomes a legitimate low post threat to score is going to have to be if some team matches up with him with a lot smaller/weaker defender in some sort of cross match scenario.
    And he is a really bad player in traffic I think due to that lack of athleticism, so I also expect him to be turnover prone pretty severely, especially against highly physical play or against "diggers" or double teams from the perimeter. I think Olynyk will seldom actually BE double teamed (as he wont demand that kind of help to be guarded) but if he was, I think he is a turnover waiting to happen.

    While he got some points in college as a roll guy on pick/roll situations, I hated how he did it. Very much a finesse guy, Olynyk NEVER seals his man and runs hard to the rim. Instead, he just kind of turns and hops along, sort of on "mini" rolls to the basket. While effective for our own Roy Hibbert, this isn't going to project for Olynyk because unlike Roy he cant score over people coming to help. Olynyk will instead be forced to be a pick/pop type of center I think, facing up as a floor spacer and hitting face up jumpers. And he can do that I believe pretty well, so as long as you are a team who likes using that kind of pick/pop action, I think he is ok.

    He also got a ton of points in college running Gonzaga's version of "roll and replace". In other words, 2 players would run a ballscreen/roll action, while Olynyk would "replace" that guy and rotate to the top of the floor. When Olynyk's man was forced to help on the roller, Olynyk would be open for a face up jumper or to drive on a bad closeout. Being able to drive the basketball at Olynyk's size is a really neat and difficult skill to master, and it shows here both how well coached he has been all his life and how he grew up being a guard as a child.

    However, a lot like being able to juggle well or being able to name all of the state capitals in alphabetical order, it is kind of useless. Olynyk isn't going to be able to drive people at the NBA level, as his dribble is way too upright and he is way too slow against this caliber athlete. He got a ton of scoring chances in this way in college, but that won't happen going forward. I do however like him in the high post area as a potential good passer in high low situations, but that is going to require him playing alongside a really strong post player simultaneously, which not that many teams do that often anymore. He'd be a really nice "triangle" offense center offensive center potentially, but no one is running that as a full time offense anymore, and just a few teams (such as us admittedly) are even tinkering with it.

    Olynyk will have to do his offensive damage at the NBA level as a floor spacing, perimeter shooting 5 man. And while Olynyk does have good form mostly, he does have a somewhat slow and low release, so I am not even confident that will translate all the way. While technically really good, he does dip the ball a little and his he shoots it pretty low, and those facts combined with the relatively short arms and lack of elevation mean he is going to have to have room to get it off. What I think will happen is that if Olynyk is going to be able to survive at all in the league, he is going to have to be able to extend his range out beyond the 3 point line, because shooting long 2 point jump shots is a skill going the way of the dodo bird in the new era of stat driven NBA basketball. He may have a slow release, but I do need/want to brag on him for his exceptional footwork again on his jumper, as he can pivot in any way, catch it with either foot as his pivot foot, and retain consistent mechanics in getting himself square and ready to fire. I like watching guys with great footwork on the perimeter, and he has it.

    Basically though, he is a jump shooting (3 point range hopefully) center at the pro level.

    I rated him as a very below average screener, as he stands up big time and doesn't embrace contact at all. In fact, he is always looking to slip a screen and does so way too often and way more than was designed in the Gonzaga offense....he simply wasn't a physical tough screener. When he did screen, teams just ran right thru the screen way too often, rendering it ineffective. Being the creative coach that he is, Mark Few usually had Olynyk play in space or receive screens, much more often than try to set them himself.

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    Defensively, Olynyk is basically a sieve, though not from lack of effort exactly, though that is part of it. Basically he just lacks the athletic ability to be a good defender especially against NBA caliber players.

    In the low post, he is too weak and too soft to get good players off their spot. They will be able to over power him and get deep against him just like he gets deep against guys with his really clever footwork and technique. His lack of length means that guys slightly smaller than him even will be able to rise up and shoot over him with relative ease. I think if a team is committed to playing Olynyk, that they are going to have to have him play behind opposing post players and then bring immediate double team help for him a majority of the time.

    As a help defender, if you want a rim protector, he is not your guy. He knows this too, so instead he is one of those bigs who tries to take charges, and for a while he will struggle I think with being in the restricted area until he gains the experience to make sure he is out of there when he tries to do that. Teams will have absolutely no fear in trying to drive to the basket on whatever team he is playing for, because he simply lacks the ability to do anything about it at this level. he also doesnt have particularly good defensive instincts either, but even if he did he is going to lack athleticism so bad that it won't matter.

    In screen roll defense, he tries but isnt very good, so teams will exploit him in that area too. I think Gonzaga screwed us some in trying to have him "hedge" as hard as he did, because he really struggles to do that well.....he gets up out of his stance way too high and really didnt effect the ballhandler turning the corner at all. He also got "split" a lot when trying to hedge, being unable to slide his feet well enough to take away the crossover dribble by the guard coming off the screen. And, by having him try to hedge as hard as they did, Olynyk also struggled to recover to his own man as he lacked the quick short area footspeed to do so well.

    Basically, I think if a team has decent personnel and coaching, that opponents attack Olynyk whenever they can when he is on the floor.

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    As a rebounder, he is a soft, finesse player who cant rebound outside his area. In college, he got alot of boards by virtue of being the biggest player on the floor 90% of the time, and because he had pretty good hands....the hands will travel and it is good that he can catch the ball well and secure what comes to him.

    But, he is not a good blockout guy, and he doesnt have a relentless motor to overcome it. Many times Olynyk just stands in front people instead of blocking them out hard, so against really good players they are likely to just throw him aside, use the "swim" or "rip" techniques to get around him, "spin" around him, or just shove him underneath the rim.....I see a scenario where the ball bounces over Olynyk's head alot in the pro game, as tough guys will just muscle him under the cylinder.

    All his rebounds are under the rim, and his short arms give him a distinct disadvantage when it comes to getting rebounds in traffic against grown men. He will be IN POSITION to rebound some of the time, but not actually get the ball due to those shortcomings. And his lack of rebounding want to and desire and quick twitch leaping ability mean that instead of him being able to get rebounds on the opposite side of the lane from him, most of the time the rebounds he will get in the NBA game are the ones that are uncontested or that fall right on top of his head.

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    So what do we have in Kelly Olynyk?

    I think we have a finesse, accurate jump shooting center who's skills dont mostly translate to the pro level. I dont think his cleverness inside necessarily overcomes his lack of physical skills, and I think he is a non factor on the glass and on defense. But, on the exact right team in the right system and personnel around him, he might be able to hang around in the league for awhile and play a role as a floor spacing big man. If he gets in the wrong situation, I think he is a D league guy who is on the periphery of the NBA.

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    Does he fit with Indiana?

    In my opinion, hell no. He is too weak to guard most centers, and way too slow to guard most perimeter 4 men. And I dont think his jump shooting or ability to drive bigs are important enough to counterbalance the bad defense, lack of athleticism and toughness, and the inability to rebound. I am personally looking for a guy who can play BOTH center and power forward for us, and I don't think Olynyk can play either at a level high enough to suit me. I pass.

    Now, some draft sites seemingly think that Olynyk might land here and are projecting just that. I don't think I am wrong about him though, and I have to have enough faith in Kevin Pritchard and Donnie Walsh to believe they see what I see. Then again, Donnie Walsh once drafted Scott Haskin, a pretty similar player from a northwestern college........but maybe he learned his lesson.

    I think the Pacers should and will pass on Olynyk, if he happens to be there on draft night.

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    I'm not sure I see a great fit for Olynyk when I try and find a landing spot, other than one obvious one.

    I think Olynyk slides down further than some people think, but not all the way to us. I'm giving Olynyk to the Utah Jazz at pick #21. With many of their bigs free agents, I think it is somewhat likely they pick someone for their frontcourt, and they seem to be an organization that would value a perimeter shooting big man a little more than most would or that I would. I guess I could see San Antonio maybe at #28, though I really dont think they can tolerate the bad defense either.

    I personally have Olynyk graded as a second rounder, but I know he will go in the first (or at least I would assume so). I think he ends up in Salt Lake City, which is in reality a really good fit for him.

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    NBA comparable: Hard for me to think of one. The common one I always see is Spencer Hawes, but I think Hawes is actually better than Olynyk. Maybe a poor man's version of Timothy Mosgov?

    Past comparable was easier: Luc Longley or a homeless man's Mehmet Okur.


    This is post #9 in this series. In post #10, Ill be profiling the player I love in this draft for Indiana more than anyone else, and I'll have some new information about the Pacers interest in that player that might possibly be news to some of you. I am excited about this player and the possibility that we will get him and already have him targeted.

    In post #11 Ill do a wrap up of "the best of the rest" of the first round possibilities, and Ill empty the notebook on the entire first round guys I have thoughts on, including thoughts on the slim possibility that we move up on draft night.

    In post #12 Ill have quick summaries of who I think our best few second round possibilities might be and why I think that.

    In post #13 Ill do a big board and officially call my shot on who I think we will take and why.

    In post #14, Ill review draft night, and you all can tell me why I am an idiot for being so wrong in post #13



    Tbird
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

    Not interested at all in Olynyk, but would like to hear your view on Mozgov sometime since you made a comparison to him with Olynyk.

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    • #3
      Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

      Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
      In post #10, Ill be profiling the player I love in this draft for Indiana more than anyone else, and I'll have some new information about the Pacers interest in that player that might possibly be news to some of you. I am excited about this player and the possibility that we will get him and already have him targeted.
      Oh, you are naughty! And here I was just hoping you'd get to Green and Muscala.


      "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

      - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

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      • #4
        Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

        DO NOT WANT! DO NOT WANT! I'd be more disappointed with this pick than the Plumlee pick last year.

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        • #5
          Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

          Really looking forward to the rest of your posts! Thanks for all of your great work!
          "George's athleticism is bananas!" - Marc J. Spears

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          • #6
            Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

            ah! Back to Tbird and I agreeing again. I really don't like Kelly for the NBA. I see him getting compared to Louis Scola a ton. If he was tough like a Scola I may agree a bit, but that is what sets Scola apart from guys like Yi and Kelly. Terrible body and terrible in every area of the game outside of shooting IMO. He will get blocked a lot at the rim if he tries in the pros. I don't see his post game translating, I mean he has a solid jump hook, but in the pros it will get blocked. Guys like Scola welcome contact and Kelly hates it. I would be surprised if his per40 rebounding is better than 6.

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            • #7
              Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

              Could it be Dennis Schroeder or Ricky Ledo or Erick Green or Lucas Nogueira or Tony Snell or Mike Muscala? Snell, Ledo, Green, and Nogueira are the only guys consistently in our range that tbird didn't evaluate yet. Schroeder would have to fall...... or Glen Rice Jr. ..........
              Last edited by Pacersalltheway10; 06-22-2013, 10:30 PM.

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              • #8
                Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                Wasn't very high on Olynyk to start with. Certainly less high on him now. Pacers need to add to their smashmouth identity not detract from it.

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                • #9
                  Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                  Originally posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
                  Could it be Dennis Schroeder or Ricky Ledo or Erick Green or Lucas Nogueira or Tony Snell? Snell, Ledo, Green, and Nogueira are the only guys consistently in our range that tbird didn't evaluate yet. Schroeder would have to fall...... or CJ M......
                  Mason Plumlee IMO

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                  • #10
                    Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                    Originally posted by DrFife View Post
                    Oh, you are naughty! And here I was just hoping you'd get to Green and Muscala.
                    I wonder who he thinks the Pacers have their eye on? Rice?

                    I really want nothing to do with Olnyk. The Pacers as a whole are slowish. He would compound
                    This problem.

                    I really appreciate these player evaluations.

                    Awesome.
                    Last edited by owl; 06-22-2013, 08:49 PM.
                    {o,o}
                    |)__)
                    -"-"-

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                    • #11
                      Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                      Originally posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
                      Could it be Dennis Schroeder or Ricky Ledo or Erick Green or Lucas Nogueira or Tony Snell? Snell, Ledo, Green, and Nogueira are the only guys consistently in our range that tbird didn't evaluate yet. Schroeder would have to fall...... or CJ M......
                      Snell...I'm banking on it..lol or Erick Green..Orr.. Lol

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                        Originally posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
                        Snell...I'm banking on it..lol or Erick Green..Orr.. Lol
                        or Glen Rice Jr. . I forgot him too lol

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                        • #13
                          Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                          My favorite around 23rd pick is Tony Snell.
                          Garbage players get 1st round picks, (WTF)! All of the NBA must hate the Pacers! LOL

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                          • #14
                            Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                            T-Bird would like the Pacers to get a X-factor player, so who is left that could play the 4 & 5?

                            Muscala?


                            One thing about it, we won't have to wait long as tomorrow he'll show us who it is.

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                            • #15
                              Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #9: Kelly Olynyk

                              Originally posted by Pacer Fan View Post
                              My favorite around 23rd pick is Tony Snell.
                              Agreed. good 3pt shooter, very good defender/athlete. Not always extremely assertive, almost prefers being a role player.

                              Kinda fills in where B Rush could have thrived within this current pacer team

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