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2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

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  • #1

    2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

    Less than 2 weeks away from draft night 2013, today we head up to Ann Arbor Michigan to take a look at the polished shooting guard from the University of Michigan, Tim Hardaway Jr. Growing up the son of an NBA All Star and born and bred in Miami certainly has kept Hardaway Jr on the right path, with the right kind of athletic training and coaching throughout his childhood and formative years. His father is still a scout for the Heat, but often followed his son's games in his 3 years at Michigan, where Hardaway started every single game his entire college career.

    Hardaway checked into the NBA combine at a chiseled 199lbs, measuring at 6'6 1/4", with a relatively short wingspan of 6'7. Hardaway was born in on March 16, 1992, meaning that he is just barely 21 years old as we head to draft night. Clearly, he is a typical size and body type for an NBA 2 guard.

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    Hardaway is an interesting cat as a player, with clear weaknesses, clear strengths, and a pretty easy comparable for me when you get to the end of this article.

    Clearly passing the eye test in body build and demeanor, Hardaway started in and played in big college games his entire 3 years at Michigan. He was a poised, steady, calming influence on a team that was loaded enough to make it to the number 1 ranking mid season, and to make it to the national championship game vs Louisville the first Monday in April. Clearly, the big stage and the limelight didn't faze him at Michigan, as I think his upbringing watching his Dad go thru the NBA playoff wars had to have helped him stay in the moment.

    Offense is where Hardaway is going to have to make his money at the pro level. As a shooter off a catch, Hardaway has exquisite footwork, as you would expect a player to have under one of the nation's best offensive footwork coaches in John Beilein. He can shoot off a catch from a standing position, getting his feet in firing position AS THE BALL IS COMING TO HIM, and not after he catches the ball like so many young guards struggle with. His superior footwork makes up for what I think is a slightly low release, which is just above his forehead.....perhaps that goes to his somewhat limited length I don't know. Still, his footwork is advanced and the lower release is somewhat mitigated by that and his ability to get elevation on his jump shot, which is really good as well. Because he does release it a hair low I can see where bigger and longer defenders could give him trouble, but that won't always be the case if he limits himself to high quality shots.

    Michigan runs alot of somewhat unique offensive concepts, one of which Hardaway excelled at, which was coming behind for handoffs from a lower position....a "Memphis cut" where I've been at. He was really good at catching this, setting his feet as the handoff was happening, and then rising up and shooting over the defenders. As this type of action is rare at the NBA level as of now, it does take away one of his big offensive weapons.

    Overall, Hardaway struck me as a guy who made a high percentage of jump shots that came within the structure of the Michigan offense, but when something didn't work or he tried to improvise, I felt like he struggled. I especially felt like he struggled when defended by bigger, more physical players who grabbed and bumped him prior to catches. I have no numbers on that, just an overall impression. Hardaway definitely strikes me as a "play runner" more so than an improviser.

    Hardaway got a ton of baskets in transition, as he played with the country's best fast break point guard in Trey Burke. Hardaway didn't go the boards hard, instead leaking out often times to get ahead of the defense and get easy dunks and layups. The Burke to Hardaway lob pass on fast breaks made highlights consistently night after night. What you didn't see a ton of was Hardaway spotting up in transition, as Michigan typically didn't look for that type shot from him for whatever reason. Burke I feel was a HUGE part of Hardaway's success.....I believe that if he had gone to school almost anywhere else that we might not be talking about him today. Hardaway fit the Michigan system perfectly, and Burke made him look a lot better offensively than I think he actually is.

    As far as a ballhandler goes, Hardaway is basically a 1 or 2 dribble straight line guy. He has almost no wiggle to his game, and needs to go in straight lines in order to get to the rim. Of course, getting to the rim consistently is Hardaway's main offensive weakness, as he simply doesn't like to do it unless there is a substantially wide open clear path for him.....he definitely wants a red carpet to go all the way to the cylinder. Hardaway really really really hates contact, and goes out of his way to not take any.....very much a finesse player with the ball. Because of that, he takes an inordinate amount of pull up jumpers and soft little floaters, which he shoots a really low percentage. That is really a shame, because he definitely left 3-5 points a game on the table in college being so unwilling to drive the ball into traffic and get fouled.

    His best move as a driver is to come to a 2 foot jump stop, gain his balance, and then go up strong with a shot over or around people. Unfortunately, for whatever reason he chooses not do that much, and instead settles for way too many one foot floating off balance flip type shots. Why he is so adverse to contact is a mystery to me, because you'd think he could be a guy who could live at the line, but Hardaway doesn't get there hardly at all. Dwyane Wade, he definitely is not.

    Off the dribble, he likely is going to get you a jump shot. His best move(and move that best translates to the NBA level) is his step back jumper going left. This is a really tough move to master and to shoot at a high level, and Hardaway has it. Like many players, Hardaway shoots better going left anyway, and the added little stepback part of this move is his bread and butter move in big situations, which he definitely has the mentality to thrive in.

    Hardaway won't give you anything as a screener, and he won't provide anything as a potential post up guy inside. He is a jump shooting 2 guard who will struggle to improvise, drive, or create offense for others, but he does run the floor hard and he can run set pieces and knock down wide open shots at an acceptable NBA level.

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    As a defender, Hardaway scares me due to his lack of elite quickness, balance, length, and unwillingness to get physical.

    He has the prerequisite athleticism, but Hardaway isn't a "hardnosed" defender at all. Part of this is probably a lack of overall defensive mindset at Michigan, which is a definitely offensive tilted, finesse type of program.

    There really is no defensive area that I believe Hardaway is average at, but I dont think he is a complete and total disaster like Tony Mitchell is. Hardaway gives legitimate effort especially on the ball, but he can get crossed over pretty easily, and he gets out of his stance when dribblers attack him too often. He seems to do ok when trying to defend side to side, but when players get a head start going at him, he has no chance and struggles to even remotely stay in front. He isn't very physical in bodying up on people who drive him, and because he gets up out of his stance so easily he is very vulnerable to the spin dribble and to the crossover....Hardaway, for an athlete who is so well schooled, crosses his feet way too often defensively.

    His lack of length and overall defensive "want to" hurt him in closeout situations and in contesting shots on the perimeter. You'd like to see Hardaway jump to contest more jump shots, but instead he often stays anchored to the ground where guys just shoot over him. Worse than that even, he sometimes won't bother to even raise an arm up to affect a shooters vision, instead just conceding the shot so he can head up the floor on the break. Some players specialize as "help" defenders......Hardaway specialized is "hope" defense way to much for my taste...as in, he hopes his man misses. While we all know he lacks the super elite max length and hops to be an elite defender, his lack of defensive effort for such a talented player was disappointing to me.

    He gets up out of his stance when screened way too easily. One way to hurt Michigan this year was to really attack Hardaway, and run his man thru a variety of screens, making him bounce off your bigs as much as possible. The later the possession would go, the worse Hardaway would defend. And once he was beaten, he really struggled to recover and make a play....meaning you only had to beat him once per possession, not twice or 3 times like you do against elite defenders who can recover from their mistakes. And he didn't like bumping cutters off the ball or beating guys to spots, instead he is a pretty finesse, reactive type of defender instead of a guy who makes things happen.

    His defensive limitations to me mean he can't be a starter on a decent NBA team, relegating him to the "role player" type guy that he seems destined to play.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As a rebounder, he gives you very little to be excited about. He will get the ones he is supposed to get but little else, and he is definitely not a strong blockout guy at all. His quickness in taking off down the floor in transition was no doubt exciting to watch and it helped Michigan win, but he will still give up some rebounds that bounce back to his own man. I assume the Michigan staff had numbers and analytics backing up their overall team emphasis in doing that, so it may be something that is easily fixed with an added emphasis at the pro level. Clearly though, Hardaway is not going be known as a physical, tough minded rebounding guard, that is simply not his game.

    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So, what do we have in Tim Hardaway Jr?

    I think we have an average, mediocre, inconsistent shooting guard who profiles as a career backup for a few years in the NBA. He profiles as a slightly less than dead eye shooter, but as someone who can make open shots in a limited role. You'll definitely have to surround him with plus defenders and you probally will always have to hide him on the opponents worst wing player.

    I personally don't view his offensive abilities (which I view as somewhat overated) to outweigh his defensive limitations and lack of upside. I think he is a middling, mediocre, average wing who you can find any year in any draft on any roster throughout the league.

    I would pass on Hardaway, not because I don't like him exactly....... I just think he is a common type of player, and doesnt fit my defensive and tough minded "eye" of scouting. I am sure there will be better players available when Indiana chooses at #23. I also believe that Indiana will agree with me, and that the Pacers will do as I recommend and pass on Hardaway Jr.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I personally think that Hardaway Jr. falls out of the first round entirely. When trying to find an ideal home for him, I think maybe Portland in the middle of the 2nd round makes some sense, but I doubt he lasts quite that long. I think perhaps he fits best with the Oklahoma City Thunder at either pick #29 in the first round, or pick #32 of the 2nd. That, or in a purchase of a pick by his fathers Miami Heat, is where I think he ends up. Despite what many draft sites and supposed experts predict, I highly doubt Hardaway Jr ends up in Indiana, although I do believe he is inconsideration by our front office since we have already worked him out in Indianapolis. As always, I guess we will just have to wait and see.

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    Current NBA comparison: Martell Webster

    This one was easy to me, I think they are very comparable players who will eventually have similar type careers. Julius Hodge also came to mind.

    As always, the above is just my opinion.

    Tbird
    Tags: None
  • #2
    Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

    Piece of trivia that people may have forgotten - Tim Hardaway Sr. played 10 games for the Pacers just before he retired

    Comment

    • #3
      Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

      Comment

      • #4
        Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

        I don't see Hardaway as an upgrade over Orlando Johnson. I see the Pacers going PF or PG.

        Comment

        • #5
          Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

          TBird,

          I totally agree with you on this one, except the draft is to weak after pick 35. So I believe he'll go before then and Portland has no chance that late in the 2nd.
          Last edited by Pacer Fan; 06-17-2013, 12:55 PM.
          Garbage players get 1st round picks, (WTF)! All of the NBA must hate the Pacers! LOL

          Comment

          • #6
            Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

            Hum. Suddenly Hardaway doesn't sound so appealing...lol.
            Peck is basically omniscient when it comes to understanding how the minds of Herb Simon and Kevin Pritchard work. I was a fool to ever question him and now feel deep shame for not understanding that this team believes in continuity above talent.

            Comment

            • #7
              Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

              Originally posted by BornReady View Post
              Hum. Suddenly Hardaway doesn't sound so appealing...lol.
              I agree.
              First time in a long time, I've been happy with the team that was constructed, and now they struggle. I blame the coach.

              Comment

              • #8
                Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                Originally posted by eldubious View Post
                I don't see Hardaway as an upgrade over Orlando Johnson. I see the Pacers going PF or PG.
                I see Larkin if he doesn't go to MIL at #16
                Smothered Chicken!

                Comment

                • #9
                  Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                  We're not drafting a PG. We'll sign a veteran in free agency. At 23 you don't get a PG whose going to be able to come in right away and run your second unit.

                  Comment

                  • #10
                    Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                    Originally posted by Coopdog23 View Post
                    I see Larkin if he doesn't go to MIL at #16
                    Larkin not going past the Jazz. They are very pleased with him.
                    Garbage players get 1st round picks, (WTF)! All of the NBA must hate the Pacers! LOL

                    Comment

                    • #11
                      Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                      Originally posted by eldubious View Post

                      I don't see Hardaway as an upgrade over Orlando Johnson.

                      BINGO!

                      We have a winner!!!

                      Comment

                      • #12
                        Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                        Originally posted by pacers101 View Post
                        We're not drafting a PG. We'll sign a veteran in free agency. At 23 you don't get a PG whose going to be able to come in right away and run your second unit.
                        I really disagree with this statement.

                        Comment

                        • #13
                          Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                          Originally posted by pacers101 View Post
                          We're not drafting a PG. We'll sign a veteran in free agency. At 23 you don't get a PG whose going to be able to come in right away and run your second unit.
                          Originally posted by pacer4ever View Post
                          I really disagree with this statement.
                          p4e, not trying to put you on the spot, but who are the guys that you think will do the job. Not asking for a list of guys that maybe could be guys but a short list of guys that you are pretty sure would come in a play right away if the Pacers drafted them.

                          thanx.

                          Comment

                          • #14
                            Canaan and Green could play now.
                            "A man with no belly has no appetite for life."

                            - Salman Rushdie

                            Comment

                            • #15
                              Re: 2013 NBA Draft analysis #7: Tim Hardaway Jr.

                              Originally posted by OakMoses View Post
                              Canaan and Green could play now.
                              This

                              Green especially, really polished. I like Canaan as a day one backup too. Although if I was coaching him I would let Lance or PG24 handle the ball more when he is in. I think he is at his best when he can make a play off the catch. I believe in that style anyway, you need to mix it up not just let the pg handle the ball. I like a team when you have many ball handlers and passing the ball up instead of dribbling it up. I think Green and Canaan are just what we need for the bench. I love the though of one of them with Lance as our bench scorers. Add in a James Ennis BJ Young as a developmental guy in the 2nd, and that is a solid draft. If we are really lucky Deshaun Thomas drops and we can add him as a matchup scorer to the bench. I think if the FO plays the cards right this draft could help us a lot long term. #23 should be a solid prospect and late in the draft we could swing for the fences(I really like BJ Young for that)


                              I would also imagine Dennis Schroeder could play day one on defense. I have only seen him play in an all star game, but his defensive tools were insane.

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