The 2013 Magic Number Thread

[Anthem]

Sorry about the delay, ladies and gents. Let's talk about Magic Numbers.

A "Magic Number" is a number of Pacers wins or other team's losses to guarantee the Pacers end a season with a better record than another opponent. For right now, I'm not dealing with tiebreakers... the Pacers have to have a better record to get the higher seed. Later in the week I'll add tiebreakers in.

To calculate the magic numbers, I copy and paste the Eastern Conference records into an Excel sheet. Column B is wins and Column C is losses. In D, I take 82-B-C to get number of games remaining. In E, I add wins (B) to games remaining (D) to get highest possible number of wins for each team. Then I subtract the Pacers' current win total to find the break-even point, and add one to to make sure we end up on top.

Without further ado, the results.

Milwaukee, Philly, Philadelphia, Toronto, Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando, and Charlotte couldn't catch us even if they won every single game they had left. That means we've already clinched a playoff roster, and everything that's left is for jockeying for position.

Here's the remaining teams, and our (non-tiebreaker-adjusted) magic number. We have 8 games remaining.

Miami - 21
New York - 10
Brooklyn - 5
Chicago - 4
Atlanta - 3
Boston - 2

It's actually kind of shocking. I had no idea we were that close to shutting out the rest of the Eastern Conference. It's mathematically impossible to catch Miami at this point, but we have a better chance than I realized to lock up the #2 seed over the next couple weeks.

I'll be updating this daily until the end of the season.

EDIT: Removed "almost." We can't catch Miami.

[CableKC]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Tx Anthem.

Its a minor point and hopefully a foregone conclusion....but can u also track the Central Division Magic Number?

Locking up the Central Division also ensures locking up the 4th spot of the Playoffs. Which means that we will be fighting for the 2nd to 4th spots in the playoffs.

[boombaby1987]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Sorry about the delay, ladies and gents. Let's talk about Magic Numbers.

A "Magic Number" is a number of Pacers wins or other team's losses to guarantee the Pacers end a season with a better record than another opponent. For right now, I'm not dealing with tiebreakers... the Pacers have to have a better record to get the higher seed. Later in the week I'll add tiebreakers in.

To calculate the magic numbers, I copy and paste the Eastern Conference records into an Excel sheet. Column B is wins and Column C is losses. In D, I take 82-B-C to get number of games remaining. In E, I add wins (B) to games remaining (D) to get highest possible number of wins for each team. Then I subtract the Pacers' current win total to find the break-even point, and add one to to make sure we end up on top.

Without further ado, the results.

Milwaukee, Philly, Philadelphia, Toronto, Washington, Detroit, Cleveland, Orlando, and Charlotte couldn't catch us even if they won every single game they had left. That means we've already clinched a playoff roster, and everything that's left is for jockeying for position.

Here's the remaining teams, and our (non-tiebreaker-adjusted) magic number. We have 8 games remaining.

Miami - 21
New York - 10
Brooklyn - 5
Chicago - 4
Atlanta - 3
Boston - 1

It's actually kind of shocking. I had no idea we were that close to shutting out the rest of the Eastern Conference. It's almost mathematically impossible to catch Miami at this point, but we have a better chance than I realized to lock up the #2 seed over the next couple weeks.

I'll be updating this daily until the end of the season.

It is already mathematically impossible for us to catch Miami. They have the conference locked up.

[Hicks]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Yeah, according to ESPN's standings Miami has clinched the conference.

[docpaul]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Tx Anthem.

Its a minor point and hopefully a foregone conclusion....but can u also track the Central Division Magic Number?

Locking up the Central Division also ensures locking up the 4th spot of the Playoffs. Which means that we will be fighting for the 2nd to 4th spots in the playoffs.

Right now, it's 3.

[Anthem]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

It is already mathematically impossible for us to catch Miami. They have the conference locked up.

Yeah, I had it in my mind that we had 10 games left, but after I went and looked it up I didn't come back and change that part. Their 10 games remaining, plus our 8, plus tiebreaker, could only get us to 19. Can't catch them.

[Anthem]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Right now, it's 3.

Yep. I listed 4 as the magic number over Chicago, but because we have tiebreaker it's actually 3.

Once Chicago's magic number becomes 0, then we will have clinched the division.

[Anthem]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Might as well knock out the tiebreakers.

New York: Pacers lead season series 2-1 with 1 game remaining (too soon to call).
Brooklyn: Brooklyn leads season series 2-0 with 1 game remaining (Brooklyn owns tiebreaker).
Chicago: Pacers lead season series 3-1 (tiebreaker).
Atlanta: Season series tied 2-2. Indy's division record (12-3) is currently leading Atlanta's division record (11-5). Indy has only 1 more division game (vs Cleveland) and so cannot get a worse division record than Atlanta. Indy wins tiebreaker.
Boston: Boston leads season series 2-0, with 1 game remaining. Boston wins tiebreaker.

So the new numbers are:

New York - 10
Brooklyn - 5
Chicago - 3
Atlanta - 3
Boston - 2

Note that we play most of these teams in our final stretch. We have a very hard schedule to close out the year, but if we can get some wins it can be a very very good one. The game at New York, especially, is worth 3 games (1 Pacers win, 1 NY loss, and tiebreaker) and winning it would effectively end NY's chance at the #2 seed.

[Cubs231721]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Might as well knock out the tiebreakers.

New York: Pacers lead season series 2-1 with 1 game remaining (too soon to call).
Brooklyn: Brooklyn leads season series 2-0 with 1 game remaining (Brooklyn owns tiebreaker).
Chicago: Pacers lead season series 3-1 (tiebreaker).
Atlanta: Season series tied 2-2. Indy's division record (12-3) is currently leading Atlanta's division record (11-5). Indy has only 1 more division game (vs Cleveland) and so cannot get a worse division record than Atlanta. Indy wins tiebreaker.
Boston: Boston leads season series 2-0, with 1 game remaining. Boston wins tiebreaker.

So the new numbers are:

New York - 10
Brooklyn - 5
Chicago - 3
Atlanta - 2
Boston - 2

Note that we play most of these teams in our final stretch. We have a very hard schedule to close out the year, but if we can get some wins it can be a very very good one. The game at New York, especially, is worth 3 games (1 Pacers win, 1 NY loss, and tiebreaker) and winning it would effectively end NY's chance at the #2 seed.

Also a good note to add is that as soon as the Pacers win the division, they'll clinch the tiebreaker over all non-division winners. So one of New York and Brooklyn could have the tiebreaker over the Pacers, but not both as long as the Pacers finish out the Bulls.

The Atlanta note is also incorrect. Since they are not in the same division, division record doesn't matter. If Atlanta ends up tied with the Pacers, they would have the better conference record and would win the tiebreaker if neither win their division. But as long as the Pacers win the division, they will win that tiebreaker anyway since Atlanta can't win their division.

[Anthem]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Also a good note to add is that as soon as the Pacers win the division, they'll clinch the tiebreaker over all non-division winners. So one of New York and Brooklyn could have the tiebreaker over the Pacers, but not both as long as the Pacers finish out the Bulls.

True.

The Atlanta note is also incorrect. Since they are not in the same division, division record doesn't matter. If Atlanta ends up tied with the Pacers, they would have the better conference record and would win the tiebreaker if neither win their division. But as long as the Pacers win the division, they will win that tiebreaker anyway since Atlanta can't win their division.

Very good... I missed that. Thanks for the note. I've corrected it on my original.

[Anthem]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

March 31 results: Chicago and New York won, Boston lost.


New York - 10
Brooklyn - 5
Chicago - 3
Atlanta - 3
Boston - 1

[rock747]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Essentially, our starters are going to be playing the rest of the season. If we are going for the 2 seed that is....

[Nuntius]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Anthem! You're back

[Derek2k3]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

April 1st results: Chicago and New York won, Boston lost.


New York - 10
Brooklyn - 5
Chicago - 3
Atlanta - 3
Boston - 1

Figured it would be nice to know who is playing whom and when.

Indiana's next week:
Mon 4/1 - @LA Clippers
Fri 4/5 - vsOKC Thunder
Sat 4/6 - vsWas Wizards

NYK's next week (Pacers need a combo of 10):
Tue 4/2 - @Miami
Wed 4/3 - @Atlanta
Fri 4/5 - vsMilwaukee
Sun 4/7 - @OKC

BKN's next week (Pacers need a combo of 5):
Wed 4/3 - @Cleveland
Thu 4/4 - vsChicago
Sat 4/6 - vsCharlotte

Chicago's next week (Pacers need a combo of 3):
Tue 4/2 - @Washington
Thu 4/4 - @Brooklyn
Fri 4/5 - vsOrlando
Sun 4/7 - @Detroit

Atlanta's next week (Pacers need a combo of 3):
Mon 4/1 - vsCleveland
Wed 4/3 - vsNYK
Fri 4/5 - vsPhilly
Sat 4/6 - @San Antonio

Boston's next week (Pacers need 1):
Mon 4/1 - @Minnesota
Wed 4/3 - vsDetroit
Fri 4/5 - vsCleveland
Sun 4/7 - vsWashington


Side note: Although I agree that we want to avoid Boston, they've been in a free-fall lately. In their last 12 they are 4-8, with those wins coming against Toronto, Charlotte, Cleveland, and Atlanta. Maybe one good win in there.

Based on the schedule, the Pacers should close out Boston this week, as well as ATL. Chicago has a reasonably favorable week, so unless Indiana surprises and beats both OKC and LA, it'll be close. Either way, the Pacers should have Chicago locked out early next week.

Assuming IND goes 2-1, and BKN does the same, the Pacers should move to 2 games away from locking them out.

Knicks have the toughest week, playing 4 games against playoff teams. If they could drop 3 of those, and Indiana could sneak out 3 wins, it would make the last week of the season fascinating.

[Nuntius]

Re: The 2013 Magic Number Thread

Side note: Although I agree that we want to avoid Boston, they've been in a free-fall lately. In their last 12 they are 4-8, with those wins coming against Toronto, Charlotte, Cleveland, and Atlanta. Maybe one good win in there.

KG has missed several of those games. So, it makes sense that they would fall. He will be back in the playoffs.