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2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

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  • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

    Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post
    DeShaun Thomas, C.J. Leslie, and James Southerland highlight who the Pacers are having in for a workout
    All of them suck yuck
    Counting down the days untill DJ Augustin's contract expires.

    Comment


    • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

      It's either Dennis Schroeder or bust. He's the Paul George of this draft. Pritchard HAS to get him (or make a trade for Rondo).

      Comment


      • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

        Im not high on schroder at all im not a fan of one year wonder's the guy was a total no name this time last year
        Counting down the days untill DJ Augustin's contract expires.

        Comment


        • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

          Originally posted by Hypnotiq View Post
          Im not high on schroder at all im not a fan of one year wonder's the guy was a total no name this time last year
          cause he was 18 last year...
          The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

          Comment


          • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

            insider piece- a stats-based analysis of the draftees

            this is the "new Hollinger"

            http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...spects-numbers


            A stats-based rating of how top NBA prospects project at the next level
            By Bradford Doolittle | ESPN Insider


            More and more, NBA teams are turning to analytics in the quest to maximize their return on coveted draft slots, or to unearth the gem farther down the board. When I talk to front-office types around the league, the topic of rating prospects almost always comes up. There is no magic in the process, either objectively or subjectively, and there certainly isn't any particular algorithm that's going to nail every prospect.


            However, teams that ignore the analytical side of the game are working at a disadvantage. I've always liked the way Chicago Cubs president Theo Epstein describes it: The scouting side is one lens and the quantitative side is the other. It's only when you put both lenses together that the picture comes into focus.


            I've been rating prospects for about five years using what I call the ATH system, which I've also used for various purposes on NBA-level topics as well. This year, I've made a few enhancements to the system (outlined in the chart at the bottom of this piece). The goal is to determine how a player's non-NBA production will translate to the game's highest level.


            (Each player's prospect score (PROS) is denoted in parenthesis. Any score more than 100 denotes a deserving top-10 pick. Late first-rounders and early second-rounders -- always a gray area -- rate in the 65-75 range. Players fall off the draft board at about 50.)


            Top of the crop


            1. Nerlens Noel, Kentucky (PROS: 124.2)


            Noel is far from the slam-dunk top pick that the system suggested Anthony Davis was last year, but he does grade out as this year's top prospect. Noel's transcendent college blocks numbers help propel him to the board's top athletic rating, and he also rates as the best defensive rebounder. His ACL injury is factored in one respect: During his recovery, Noel has lost a lot of weight, coming in at 206 pounds at the Chicago scouting combine, which are the numbers I use when possible. This may have skewed how the system matches Noel's body type with past prospects.


            2. Cody Zeller, Indiana (122.3)


            From a per-possession-efficiency standpoint, Zeller ranks as the best prospect on the board. The excellent athletic markers he displayed at the combine hold up statistically, as he's got the third-best ATH rating in this class. Zeller lags in the skill area in terms of outside shooting and passing, but I'm still convinced Zeller is underrated in the prospect rankings I've seen.


            3. Ben McLemore, Kansas (119.5)


            Anyone who's seen McLemore stroke a 3-point shot will not be surprised that he recorded the top shooting score of the 134 prospects I measured, and he projects to put up the best 3-point percentage of any rookie next season. McLemore's upside is what's most intriguing to me: His projected five-year WARP is best in the draft, making him a solid option to go with as the top overall pick.


            4. Alex Len, Maryland (118.3)


            As another injured prospect, Len is a bit of a wild card, but he's got the second-best ATH on the board. Len's lower skill rating suggests that he is raw, but the system believes he'll be an efficient scorer and rebounder right off the bat.


            5. Anthony Bennett, UNLV (116.7)


            Bennett's athleticism shines through the projections, but the skill ratings lag a bit, probably because of his "tweener" body type. ATH is a little skeptical that he'll be an efficient 3-point shooter right away, and if it's wrong about that, look out. His Synergy isolation numbers aren't inspiring, which underscores the system's belief that Bennett won't be a volume scorer right away.


            6. Steven Adams, Pittsburgh (114.6)


            Adams is one of the big risers on the board in terms of disconnect between metrics and scouting rankings. He's got the best-projected rookie rates in 2-point percentage, overall rebound percentage and block percentage. Yes, his block projection is even a hair better than Noel's. Body type has a lot to do with that. Consider Anthony Davis, who projected to lap the field in rookie block rate last year. He indeed was an excellent shot-blocker, but Andre Drummond and Festus Ezeli both put up better rates. Despite a foul rate that looks problematic, Adams is a worthy project.


            7. Trey Burke, Michigan (110.1)


            One of the draft's most vexing questions is who is the top point guard prospect? ATH likes Burke, though not by enough to settle the issue. The system sees him as a bit of a ball dominator, with rates in usage, assists and turnovers, and has severe concerns about his defensive prowess.


            8. Michael Carter-Williams, Syracuse (107.3)


            Carter-Williams has the edge on Burke on the defensive end, where Synergy gave him the third-best score against isolations of any player in the draft.


            9. Otto Porter, Georgetown (107.0)


            Porter is more well-regarded by the scouts than the stats, though a No. 9 ranking is nothing to sneeze at. However, his five-year WARP projection ranks just 12th in this draft class.


            10. Victor Oladipo, Indiana (105.0)


            Scouts love Oladipo's defensive upside, but it just doesn't translate statistically. ATH rates him 70th in defensive rating, 41st in steals and 52nd in blocks, and Synergy ranks him 81st against isolations.


            11. C.J. McCollum, Lehigh (99.8)


            McCollum may be the top scorer among next year's rookies because of his combination of skill and volume. His traits are heavily balanced toward the skill over the athletic, which is a concern. Also, his No. 13 ranking in five-year WARP puts him behind Burke, Carter-Williams and a soon-to-be-named point guard at his position.


            12. Dennis Schroeder, Germany (98.8)


            And that unnamed point guard is Schroeder, though as a player who is largely unproven in high-level leagues, he's a bit of an enigma. That said, his upside is tantalizing, with a five-year projection that is the top at his position.


            13. Sergey Karasev, Russia (96.6)


            Everything you've heard about Karasev's pure shooting ability shines through statistically, and he rates as the most-efficient offensive player in this draft. He also rates 130th out of 134 defensively, and his athletic rating is 133rd, so his strengths -- and weaknesses -- are apparent.


            14. Jeff Withey, Kansas (90.7)


            Withey is another big man whose lean body type is holding back his projected rebounding and block rates, and his age (23) is a drag on his five-year projection. His rookie-season projection is promising enough that he could be a rotation center immediately on the right team.


            15. Gorgui Dieng, Louisville (87.3)


            If healthy, Dieng could easily emerge as the most NBA-ready defender of the draft. He's the same age as Withey, though the system doesn't know about his overall lack of basketball experience. The passing abilities that the scouts like so much don't shine through the translations for Dieng, either. They'll need to, because he's not going to be a scorer.


            Other first-rounders


            16. Dario Saric, Croatia (84.2)
            17. Glen Rice Jr., Georgia Tech (83.1)
            18. Kelly Olynyk, Gonzaga (82.7)
            19. Mason Plumlee, Duke (78.8)
            20. Jamaal Franklin, San Diego State (78.5)
            21. Jackie Carmichael, Illinois State (76.1)
            22. Tony Mitchell, North Texas (75.1)
            23. Mike Muscala, Bucknell (73.4)
            24. Andre Roberson, Colorado (72.9)
            25. Laurence Bowers, Missouri (71.7)
            26. Allen Crabbe, California (71.7)
            27. Rodney Williams, Minnesota (70.7)
            28. Shabazz Muhammad, UCLA (69.8)
            29. D.J. Stephens, Memphis (69.5)
            30. Rudy Gobert, France (69.5)


            In the last half of the first round, you'll notice that Gobert's statistical profile is underwhelming. There are a few unexpected names, most noticeably Bowers and Williams, but given that the system is built on a foundation of athletic markers, their inclusion might not be so surprising. If Bowers can further hone his face-up shot and develop some range, I love him as a defensive specialist, while Williams reminds me at times of Tony Allen. The system spit out the following about Williams: His most likely career path is that of Gerald Wallace. Neither Bowers nor Williams is a cinch to be drafted at all, much less in the first round. Meanwhile, Muhammad is the latest Ben Howland player whose statistical translations are highly pessimistic. Also, you can see where Saric rates if he does another about-face and stays in the draft.


            Special mentions


            32. Deshaun Thomas, Ohio State (68.1)
            38. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Georgia (64.4)
            41. Nate Wolters, South Dakota State (64.0)
            50. Shane Larkin, Miami (Fla.) (56.3)


            Caldwell-Pope and Larkin are the highly touted prospects who fall the farthest in the ATH system. Caldwell-Pope has good stand-still shooting indicators but is held back by a poor defensive translation that conflicts with scouting reports. Larkin has the top projected assist rate in the draft, but suffers from poor shooting efficiency and the second-worst turnover rate on the board. The system undersells both of these players, but it does raise some red flags in their performance record. Thomas and Wolters merit special mentions because they top the board in the Synergy stats. Thomas has the best defensive isolation score, while Wolters tops the offensive end.


            ATH system enhancements


            1. Each player's ATH rating, or athletic rating, is calculated for his numbers in college, overseas or the D-League. It's based on height-adjusted measurements for rebounding, foul drawing, blocks and steals. This metric largely determines how much of a player's non-NBA production will be retained.


            2. A skill rating, or SKL, is also calculated. It's based on the more gentle parts of the game, such as free throw shooting, 3-point shooting, turnover rate and assist rate, all of which are also adjusted for body type.


            3. Other measurements are recorded for the purposes of player classification: height, weight, likely base position, age, a scouting rating based on combine measurements. I also enter the scout-based prospect rankings from our own Chad Ford to use for overseas players who haven't played in a high-level league, or for American players who didn't play college ball, such as Enes Kanter. In such cases, there just isn't objective data to go on.


            4. To refine projections for players like Glen Rice Jr., who play in the D-League prior to entering the draft, I've added numbers from that circuit and blended them with their college performance. The bigger the sample, the better.


            5. Finally, I've taken advantage of the terrific data from Synergy Sports Technologies to help refine player classification. I may add more play types in the future, but for this year, I was most interested in how the players rate in isolation situations, on both offense and defense.


            The ATH metric is still the primary component in translating the numbers forward, but the other traits are used to better match a player's baseline projection with the historical database, which in turn suggests the probable career path for the player. The system now spits out extremely conservative five-year projections, which aren't meant to pin down a player's exact future value, but more to suggest the likely direction of his growth curve beyond rookie-year projections.
            The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

            Comment


            • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

              Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
              cause he was 18 last year...
              and?

              what does age have to do with anything?
              Counting down the days untill DJ Augustin's contract expires.

              Comment


              • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                Because dramatic 1 year improvements for an 18 year old are nothing at all unusual, whereas for a 22 year old they are.
                The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

                Comment


                • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                  Originally posted by Hypnotiq View Post
                  Im not high on schroder at all im not a fan of one year wonder's the guy was a total no name this time last year
                  Because he only played 8 minutes per game this time last year since he was only 18. Believe it or not, coaches in big leagues in Europe are not going to give major PT to a guy that has yet to graduate High School.

                  He played big minutes in a 3rd division team earlier in his career and he performed very well.
                  Originally posted by IrishPacer
                  Empty vessels make the most noise.

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                    Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
                    insider piece- a stats-based analysis of the draftees

                    this is the "new Hollinger"

                    http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft...spects-numbers
                    The new Hollinger my *** lol. I wish Pelton would of wrote that piece he is a much better advanced stats guy IMO. I disagree with almost everything. I mean I put up with a lot in that article, but after reading he questions Caldwell-Pope's defensive potential I just had to quit. He is a terrific defender with great hands, feet and very good in the help. I just don't get that at all. Pope is a very good athlete especially side to side. I don't get why they judged him as poor in that area.

                    Laurence Bowers will be lucky if he ever plays in the Dleague let alone the NBA(hyperbole he will be in the dleague if he wants). Having him in the 1st rd is beyond stupid. I just don't see him playing ever. Great example of why advanced stats can be overrated. I think they are much better for coaches to prepare for games than scouting college spects. Advanced stats is a very small part in the picture IMO for drafting. I view workouts much the same way. They should be taken with a grain of salt IMO. Tape tape and more tape is what should matter IMO.
                    Last edited by pacer4ever; 06-13-2013, 07:56 AM.

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                      Hollinger appears very tough to replace in general. The guys they've tried to do advanced stats and per diem all suck. Arnowitz is pretty good but he's been there before so he's not really a replacement. They should try to steal Lowe from grantland. Or find someone new. Espn basketball insider is low quality right now.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                        So the Pacers are starting to bring in their 2nd round pick look and see guys. Notice they're all small forwards and they have Tim Hardaway coming in on Friday makes you wonder if they're going back court with the 1st pick?


                        Pacers To Hold Draft Prospect Workouts Thursday

                        Official Release

                        June 12, 2013

                        http://www.nba.com/pacers/news/pacer...kouts-thursday

                        The Indiana Pacers will hold their first workouts open to the media with prospects for the 2013 NBA Draft on Thursday, June 13 at Bankers Life Fieldhouse. Prospects will work out in front of team officials and also conduct interviews with the media.

                        Players scheduled to workout for the Pacers on Thursday are Will Clyburn (Iowa State); Troy Daniels (Virginia Commonwealth); C.J. Leslie (North Carolina State); Alex Oriakhi (Missouri); James Southerland (Syracuse); and DeShaun Thomas (Ohio State). The list of players is subject to change.

                        The 2013 NBA Draft will take place on Thursday, June 27 at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York. The Pacers own the 23rd and 53rd overall selections in this year's draft
                        Last edited by RWB; 06-13-2013, 09:43 AM.
                        You know how hippos are made out to be sweet and silly, like big cows, but are actually extremely dangerous and can kill you with stunning brutality? The Pacers are the NBA's hippos....Matt Moore CBS Sports....

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                          Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming Friday? Who else is working out Friday?

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                            Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post
                            Tim Hardaway Jr. is coming Friday? Who else is working out Friday?
                            Sorry BCC, actually Hardaway is coming in the following Friday on the 21st. Tomorrow Andrew Smith from Butler.
                            You know how hippos are made out to be sweet and silly, like big cows, but are actually extremely dangerous and can kill you with stunning brutality? The Pacers are the NBA's hippos....Matt Moore CBS Sports....

                            Comment


                            • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                              Originally posted by RWB View Post
                              Sorry BCC, actually Hardaway is coming in the following Friday on the 21st. Tomorrow Andrew Smith from Butler.
                              Ahh gotcha

                              Comment


                              • Re: 2012-2013 NBA draft prospects thread

                                Originally posted by Pacersalltheway10 View Post
                                It's either Dennis Schroeder or bust. He's the Paul George of this draft. Pritchard HAS to get him (or make a trade for Rondo).
                                that is a lie
                                Why so SERIOUS

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