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The Pacers' offseason blueprint
Re-signing Hibbert and adding some shooters will help Indy in 2012-13
Updated: May 25, 2012, 4:15 PM ET
By Neil Paine | Basketball-Reference.com
The Pacers' No. 1 priority this offseason will be to re-sign Roy Hibbert.
Although at times they gave the Chris Bosh-less Miami Heat more than they bargained for, the Indiana Pacers' six-game loss to Miami ultimately proved that they were not on the same level as the league's elite teams. That means reigning Executive of the Year Larry Bird still has work to do before next season if he hopes to build on Indiana's unexpectedly good 2012 campaign.
What are the biggest-action items for the Pacers as they head into 2012-13?
1. Bring back Hibbert
It goes without saying that the Pacers' top priority over the summer will be to make a qualifying offer to unrestricted free-agent center Roy Hibbert and to match any offer sheets from teams in search of the emerging big man's services.
Hibbert's improved play in 2012 was one of the big reasons Indiana vaulted from a sub-.500 team to the No. 3 seed in the East. He posted a career-high 19.3 player efficiency rating, elevating his usage, offensive efficiency and defense in the same season. At 25, he'll give the team that signs him a handful of prime years as a true center, one of the rarest commodities in the modern-day NBA.
That last sentence is why the demand for Hibbert will be so high this summer. In a big-man landscape where Ryan Anderson, JaVale McGee, Spencer Hawes, Omer Asik and an aging Kevin Garnett are the alternatives, Hibbert might very well be the second-most sought-after free agent of the offseason, behind only Deron Williams. The market value for players like that has typically been either a maximum contract or at least a near-max deal, and a max offer would commit roughly $13 million to Hibbert in 2012-13.
That doesn't leave a lot of cash left over. Luckily, though, there is a major team weakness that can be addressed by the Pacers in a relatively inexpensive manner.
2. Add some shooting
The biggest statistical disparity of the Heat-Pacers series was in terms of effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which measures shooting efficiency from the field with an adjustment for the extra value of 3-pointers. Miami's eFG% was 48.4 and Indiana's was 44.3 (the league average is 46.8 in the playoffs), a huge gap that explains most of why the Pacers were outscored by 6.5 points per game.
While Hibbert and George Hill shot well in the series, Danny Granger, David West and Paul George all posted an eFG% below the league average. In addition, role players Leandro Barbosa, Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones all put up abysmal shooting numbers. The Pacers were not the greatest shooting team during the regular season either -- they ranked 23rd in eFG% -- so something needs to be done to bolster their production in that area.
You might think the answer would be to give Hill more playing time than Darren Collison (which the Pacers began doing throughout the playoffs). Hill led the team in eFG% during the regular season and posted their best mark during the Miami series. And although Hill shoots well, his presence on the court is actually associated with a lower team eFG% than with Collison in the game. The difference appears to be Collison's superior passing ability, which helps set his teammates up for better looks.
Instead of trying to fix their shooting issues with an in-house solution at the point, the Pacers could at least address them by upgrading their role players. Hansbrough, Jones and Louis Amundson, for instance, are three of the NBA's worst players at creating a positive eFG% differential while on the floor. Amundson and Hansbrough are useful rebounders and Jones is a solid man defender, but Indy could afford to sacrifice some of that to improve its shooting differential.
The team will need to make qualifying offers to Hill and Hibbert, and Jones will almost certainly exercise his player option, but Indy will have some breathing room with the salaries of Barbosa, Jeff Foster and (potentially) Amundson coming off the books. They'd do well to go after players like Matt Barnes, Vladimir Radmanovic or Ronny Turiaf, free agents who could be had cheaply and are associated with much better on-court shooting differentials than Jones, Hansbrough and Amundson.
It might not be enough to guarantee they get over the top against a squad like Miami, but addressing the disparity in shooting efficiency at the margins is a cost-effective way for the Pacers to improve this offseason.
3. The Gordon question
There's no question that Indiana will do whatever it takes to re-sign Hibbert, but the Pacers might not be able to do much more than that in free agency. One huge question that lingers is whether they might go after a major talent at guard. Could they risk letting Hill walk and going after a "name" player?
Right now, it's unlikely that Indiana would have enough cap space to pursue a franchise-altering talent like Williams, and Williams is far more likely to land in his hometown of Dallas. Indiana native Eric Gordon has been a popular name, however. Does that work? Well, even going after a lesser free agent would require renouncing the cap hold belonging to Hill, and losing Hill would be a blow.
For better or for worse, the Pacers' biggest free-agent move this offseason might simply be to re-sign Hibbert, keep Hill, and move forward with the same core that got them to the second round of the playoffs.
Neil Paine is an author for Basketball-Reference.com.
Re-signing Hibbert and adding some shooters will help Indy in 2012-13
Updated: May 25, 2012, 4:15 PM ET
By Neil Paine | Basketball-Reference.com
The Pacers' No. 1 priority this offseason will be to re-sign Roy Hibbert.
Although at times they gave the Chris Bosh-less Miami Heat more than they bargained for, the Indiana Pacers' six-game loss to Miami ultimately proved that they were not on the same level as the league's elite teams. That means reigning Executive of the Year Larry Bird still has work to do before next season if he hopes to build on Indiana's unexpectedly good 2012 campaign.
What are the biggest-action items for the Pacers as they head into 2012-13?
1. Bring back Hibbert
It goes without saying that the Pacers' top priority over the summer will be to make a qualifying offer to unrestricted free-agent center Roy Hibbert and to match any offer sheets from teams in search of the emerging big man's services.
Hibbert's improved play in 2012 was one of the big reasons Indiana vaulted from a sub-.500 team to the No. 3 seed in the East. He posted a career-high 19.3 player efficiency rating, elevating his usage, offensive efficiency and defense in the same season. At 25, he'll give the team that signs him a handful of prime years as a true center, one of the rarest commodities in the modern-day NBA.
That last sentence is why the demand for Hibbert will be so high this summer. In a big-man landscape where Ryan Anderson, JaVale McGee, Spencer Hawes, Omer Asik and an aging Kevin Garnett are the alternatives, Hibbert might very well be the second-most sought-after free agent of the offseason, behind only Deron Williams. The market value for players like that has typically been either a maximum contract or at least a near-max deal, and a max offer would commit roughly $13 million to Hibbert in 2012-13.
That doesn't leave a lot of cash left over. Luckily, though, there is a major team weakness that can be addressed by the Pacers in a relatively inexpensive manner.
2. Add some shooting
The biggest statistical disparity of the Heat-Pacers series was in terms of effective field goal percentage (eFG%), which measures shooting efficiency from the field with an adjustment for the extra value of 3-pointers. Miami's eFG% was 48.4 and Indiana's was 44.3 (the league average is 46.8 in the playoffs), a huge gap that explains most of why the Pacers were outscored by 6.5 points per game.
While Hibbert and George Hill shot well in the series, Danny Granger, David West and Paul George all posted an eFG% below the league average. In addition, role players Leandro Barbosa, Tyler Hansbrough and Dahntay Jones all put up abysmal shooting numbers. The Pacers were not the greatest shooting team during the regular season either -- they ranked 23rd in eFG% -- so something needs to be done to bolster their production in that area.
You might think the answer would be to give Hill more playing time than Darren Collison (which the Pacers began doing throughout the playoffs). Hill led the team in eFG% during the regular season and posted their best mark during the Miami series. And although Hill shoots well, his presence on the court is actually associated with a lower team eFG% than with Collison in the game. The difference appears to be Collison's superior passing ability, which helps set his teammates up for better looks.
Instead of trying to fix their shooting issues with an in-house solution at the point, the Pacers could at least address them by upgrading their role players. Hansbrough, Jones and Louis Amundson, for instance, are three of the NBA's worst players at creating a positive eFG% differential while on the floor. Amundson and Hansbrough are useful rebounders and Jones is a solid man defender, but Indy could afford to sacrifice some of that to improve its shooting differential.
The team will need to make qualifying offers to Hill and Hibbert, and Jones will almost certainly exercise his player option, but Indy will have some breathing room with the salaries of Barbosa, Jeff Foster and (potentially) Amundson coming off the books. They'd do well to go after players like Matt Barnes, Vladimir Radmanovic or Ronny Turiaf, free agents who could be had cheaply and are associated with much better on-court shooting differentials than Jones, Hansbrough and Amundson.
It might not be enough to guarantee they get over the top against a squad like Miami, but addressing the disparity in shooting efficiency at the margins is a cost-effective way for the Pacers to improve this offseason.
3. The Gordon question
There's no question that Indiana will do whatever it takes to re-sign Hibbert, but the Pacers might not be able to do much more than that in free agency. One huge question that lingers is whether they might go after a major talent at guard. Could they risk letting Hill walk and going after a "name" player?
Right now, it's unlikely that Indiana would have enough cap space to pursue a franchise-altering talent like Williams, and Williams is far more likely to land in his hometown of Dallas. Indiana native Eric Gordon has been a popular name, however. Does that work? Well, even going after a lesser free agent would require renouncing the cap hold belonging to Hill, and losing Hill would be a blow.
For better or for worse, the Pacers' biggest free-agent move this offseason might simply be to re-sign Hibbert, keep Hill, and move forward with the same core that got them to the second round of the playoffs.
Neil Paine is an author for Basketball-Reference.com.
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