Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

[Anthem]

Our “Magic Number” is the number of Indy wins or other team’s losses that are required to secure a specific playoff spot.

I don’t see any way that we can catch Chicago and Miami, or be caught by the sub-500 teams New York, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Toronto, Detroit, New Jersey, Washington, and Charlotte. That leaves Indy in a group of 5 teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston.

Here’s what we’ve got after tonight, then:

Team – (W-L) – Games Remaining

Orlando – (31-18) – 17
Atlanta – (29-20) – 17
Indiana – (28-19) – 19
Philadelphia – (27-21) – 18
Boston – (25-22) – 19

The highest number of wins Boston can get is their current win total (25) plus their games remaining (19). That gives 44, and the Pacers would have to get 45 wins to top them (I don’t count tiebreakers until the final weeks). The Pacers currently have 28 wins, and so they need a combination of 45-28=17 Pacer wins or Celtic losses to ensure the Pacers end up with a better record than the Celts. With that methodology, then, the magic numbers are as follows.

With 19 games remaining,
Orlando – 21
Atlanta – 19
Philadelphia – 18
Boston – 17

I'll be updating this every night for the rest of the season. Generally I'll just eyeball the scoreboard and update from there, but once a week or so I'll re-run the numbers from the standings just to make sure I haven't drifted.

In the meantime, let's hope for many losses for Orlando, Atlanta, Philadelphia, and Boston. The Pacers have 19 games remaining, so all of these teams are well within our reach considering our supposed cakewalk schedule to end the season.

[Hibbert]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

Hey Anthem, not sure if you have ATL above us cause they have more wins but technically we are above them right now in the standings since we actually have a better win pct. Just a heads up.

[vapacersfan]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

I always enjoy these threads, thank you for posting (and thank you for the Pacers for making threads like this relevant again)

One question, I may be an idiot but I cannot follow what this line means: That Indy in a group of 5 teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston.

[Anthem]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

One question, I may be an idiot but I cannot follow what this line means: That Indy in a group of 5 teams: Orlando, Atlanta, Indiana, Philadelphia, and Boston.

My bad. The missing word there is "leaves." As in there are 2 teams we can't catch and 8 teams that can't catch us. 15 Eastern conference teams, minus those 10, leaves us as one of 5 teams.

[Anthem]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

Hey Anthem, not sure if you have ATL above us cause they have more wins

Yup.

But they have fewer games remaining (like you said, they have a lower winning percentage), so their magic number isn't that high. When doing these calculations, though, the number of wins is the key stat. It'll all even out by the end.

[vapacersfan]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

So basically I am just an idiot

[Anthem]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

So basically I am just an idiot

No, I edited the post.

[pacers74]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

Hopefully we can end up with at least the 4th/5th seed. 4th/5th, because Philly has to get the at least a 4th if they win their division. Right now we are the 6th seed and would have to play the Magic. I don't like that matchup with them having home court. Luckly our schedule the rest of the way looks to play out pretty good for us. If we just win the games against teams with losing records we will win another 11 games. Without looking at everyone else's remaining schedule that should move us up a few spots in the standings. So, as long as we take care of buisness and win the games we should we will be in great shape to start the playoffs.

[PacersHomer]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

We've already guaranteed that we finish above Charlotte! Woo hoo!

Also the magic number is 3 for above Washington, 5 for above New Jersey, 6 for above Toronto, 7 for above Detroit, 11 for above Cleveland, 13 for above Milwaukee, 14 for above New York, 28 for above Chicago and Miami.

I was curious to see the other magic numbers. I think we'll wrap up the playoff spot pretty damn soon.

[Anthem]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

Ok, here's the results of Sunday, March 25th.

Atlanta won (in quadruple OT), Boston won, Philly lost, Orlando and Indy didn't play.

Orlando – 21
Atlanta – 19
Philadelphia – 17
Boston – 17

[Derek2k3]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

This is great stuff, thanks Anthem.

This will most certainly improve the quality of my work from now until the playoffs, I won't be sitting at the office every day figuring this out

[Sherlock]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

Ok, here's the results of Sunday, March 25th.

Atlanta won (in quadruple OT), Boston won, Philly lost, Orlando and Indy didn't play.

Orlando – 21
Atlanta – 19
Philadelphia – 17
Boston – 17

So Pacers should be above 3 of the these 4 teams to have 1st round home court advantage.

[Anthem]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

This is great stuff, thanks Anthem.

This will most certainly improve the quality of my work from now until the playoffs, I won't be sitting at the office every day figuring this out

Anthem Enterprises: Increasing Your Productivity Since (I had to actually go look it up) 2005.

2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005

That's crazy. Look at that 2005 thread... it's got a 4-digit thread number. Right now we're in the 70k range.

[xtacy]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

thanks anthem for putting your effort into this.

i hope we get 4 or 5th seed and play sixers. i sure don't want to play magic.

[wintermute]

Re: Anthem’s Annual Magic Number Thread (2012 Edition)

Atlanta is the one to watch. With the Atlantic division winner (either Philly or Boston) guaranteed the 4 seed, the Hawks and Pacers are basically fighting for the 5 and 6 seeds between them. The difference between 5 and 6 is huge - with the 5th seed you probably have homecourt against a weaker team, with the 6th seed you're facing Dwight Howard. Unfortunately, Atlanta seems to have the easier remaining schedule, and the Hawks going 3-0 in their recent b2b2b didn't do us any favors either.