Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

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  • Anthem
    White and Nerdy
    • Jan 2004
    • 24482

    #1

    Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    Despite our recent lack of postseason appearances, usually this thing's competitive all the way up until the end. This year, the Pacers are already mathematically eliminated from the playoffs. I'm stealing Nappy Seth's idea and making a reverse magic number thread, instead. We'll be looking at what combination of Pacers losses or other team's wins are needed for the Pacers to secure a top pick.

    For now we won't be looking at tiebreakers and I'll be ignoring the lotto aspect entirely. We're just looking at unadjusted draft ranking.

    Here are the current lotto standings (wins/losses/games left)

    1. New Jersey (10/65/7)
    2. Minnesota (15/60/7)
    3. Golden State (22/53/7)
    4. Washington (22/53/7)
    5. Detroit (23/52/7)
    6. Sacramento (24/52/6)
    7. New York (26/49/7)
    8. Philadelphia (26/50/6)
    9. LA Clippers (27/48/7)
    10. Indiana (28/48/6)
    11. New Orleans (35/42/5)
    12. Chicago (36/39/7)
    13. Houston (38/37/7)
    14. Toronto (38/37/7)

    The Pacers have six games left... even if they win all of their remaining games, they won't have a good enough record to pass New Orleans, Chicago, Houston, or Toronto. So I'm taking those teams off the list right from the start. In addition, New Jersey and Minnesota have enough losses that even if they won the remainder of their games, they wouldn't be in danger of losing the pick to the Pacers. So they're gone as well.

    Golden State has seven games left. If they lose all of those games they'll have 60 losses. Indy currently has 48 losses, meaning they'd have to lose 13 games to acquire more losses than GS. Indy's magic number is thus 13. Either a Golden State win or an Indy loss decreases that number by one.

    Here, then, are the magic numbers:

    3. Golden State - 13
    4. Washington - 13
    5. Detroit - 12
    6. Sacramento - 11
    7. New York - 9
    8. Philadelphia - 9
    9. LA Clippers - 8
    10. Indiana

    I'll update this tonight and every night until the end of the season. I don't have it in me to wish for my Pacers to lose, so I'll be rooting hardcore for the Clippers, Sixers, Knicks, and Kings.
    This space for rent.
  • CableKC
    Member
    • Mar 2005
    • 36691

    #2
    Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

    For Saturday 4/3:

    Sixers Lost
    Pistons Lost
    Clippers Lost
    Kings Lost

    For Sunday 4/4, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Rockets @ Pacers
    Nets @ Wizards
    Warriors @ Raptors
    Knicks @ Clippers

    No games on Monday 4/5

    For Tuesday 4/6, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Pistons @ Sixers
    Warriors @ Wizards
    Celtics @ Knicks
    Spurs @ Kings

    For Wednesday 4/7, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Knicks @ Pacers
    Wizards @ Magic
    Hawks @ Pistons
    Sixers @ Heat
    Warriors @ TWolves
    Blazers @ Clippers

    For Thursday 4/8, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Clippers @ Kings

    For Friday 4/9, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Knicks @ Magic
    Bucks @ Sixers
    Wizards @ Celtics
    Pacers @ Cavs
    Pistons @ Heat

    For Saturday 4/10, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Nets @ Pacers
    Hawks @ Wizards
    Pistons @ Bobcats
    Sixers @ Grizzlies
    Mavs @ Kings
    Warriors @ Clippers

    For Sunday 4/11, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Thunder @ Warriors
    Heat @ Knicks

    For Monday 4/12, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Magic @ Pacers
    Heat @ Sixers
    Raptors @ Pistons
    Wizards @ Knicks
    Rockets @ Kings
    Mavs @ Clippers

    For Tuesday 4/13, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Jazz @ Warriors
    Kings @ Lakers

    For Wednesday 4/14, here's the schedule of the Teams of concern:

    Pistons @ TWolves
    Sixers @ Magic
    Pacers @ Wizards
    Knicks @ Raptors
    Lakers @ Clippers
    Warriors @ Blazers

    It won't make much of a difference....but something to consider is that the Warriors aren't purposely tanking as they are trying to get ( at least ) 2 more wins for Nellie so that he can break the record for "Most Wins by a Coach" record this season. When it's all said and done...I think the Wizards are going to end up with a worst record then the Warriors.
    Last edited by CableKC; 04-04-2010, 02:13 AM.
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    Comment

    • Naptown_Seth
      NaptownSeth is all feel
      • Jul 2006
      • 12714

      #3
      Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

      I was gonna say, I think you might be a bit too late for your magic number thread. Then I read it and said "yeah, that's more germane to the situation."



      Also I usually present it from the other team's POV on this one, so as of now the team's the Pacers can "catch" that are "ahead" of them in the lottery standings.

      Pacers can lose 54 games max.

      Pacers can't catch:
      1. New Jersey
      2. Minny

      Games (Pacer wins, other team's losses) left to eliminate Pacers (no ties)
      3. Golden St - 2
      4. Washington - 2
      5. Sacto - 3
      6. Detroit - 3
      7. New York - 6
      8. Philly - 6
      9. Clips - 7

      The Pacers can't win enough games to catch any other teams and move "down" this list, so they've locked up 10th and have a realistic shot at moving to 7th.

      However considering their slew of home games it seems very possible that the Pacers finish 4-2, which would eliminate the top 6 teams even if those teams won out.

      Of course it's just our luck that the Clips and Knicks play tomorrow, so one of those 2 will reduce their magic number when they lose.
      Last edited by Naptown_Seth; 04-04-2010, 03:19 AM.

      Comment

      • CableKC
        Member
        • Mar 2005
        • 36691

        #4
        Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

        Welcome to No-Man's land....where the Pacers have taken up residence over the last couple of seasons. Many of the Teams that matter will be playing each other over the next week....so it's only going to get better.
        Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

        Comment

        • Hillman's 'Fro'
          Member
          • Mar 2010
          • 191

          #5
          Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

          I said about a week and a half ago that the Pacers would finish at
          #10. In fact, I think I used the word 'lock'.

          Nothing has changed.

          Comment

          • Hicks
            Member
            • Jun 2004
            • 53117

            #6
            Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

            For a while there, I really did think we had a shot at somewhere around 4-6. Turns out my initial pessimism (which I believe had me thinking 6-9) was more on the mark.

            Comment

            • Putnam
              Member
              • Mar 2006
              • 8727

              #7
              Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

              Originally posted by Hillman's 'Fro'
              I said about a week and a half ago that the Pacers would finish at #10. In fact, I think I used the word 'lock'.

              Nothing has changed.

              It is nice that you made a guess that turned out to actually happen. But I hope you agree that saying something will happen, and then it actually happening, is not "nothing."

              If I say, "I will give you $1,000," I think you would notice a difference between me saying it and then me actually giving you the money.



              People have been "calling it" since the beginning of the season. And most of our predictions have been very far off the mark. Some few can point back to one or a few predictions they made that were on target, thanks to luck and sheer numbers.

              The point of this thread is that we can finally pass beyond the fog of prediction and step into the bright clear daylight of actual results. Keep it up, Anthem.
              And I won't be here to see the day
              It all dries up and blows away
              I'd hang around just to see
              But they never had much use for me
              In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

              Comment

              • Putnam
                Member
                • Mar 2006
                • 8727

                #8
                Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                Don't know where else to ask this question:


                Did we lose the pre-season prediction thread?



                .
                And I won't be here to see the day
                It all dries up and blows away
                I'd hang around just to see
                But they never had much use for me
                In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

                Comment

                • Naptown_Seth
                  NaptownSeth is all feel
                  • Jul 2006
                  • 12714

                  #9
                  Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                  Figures we would if you can't find it. Stupid computers.

                  Top of my head I think I had them in the 39-41 win range, maybe sneaking into the playoffs thanks to the improved defense. I was more optimistic this year than I was the last 2.

                  And honestly, had Danny been healthier or looked healthier during mid-season they might have snuck in a few more wins to get near the bottom of that range, though it wouldn't be enough to make the post-season it appears.

                  The 32-33 wins they look to be headed to is much closer to the predictions I made the prior 2 seasons.





                  By the way, just since it's one of my personal vendetta rant topics...

                  Carlisle
                  44 wins
                  41 wins
                  35 wins
                  FIRED

                  O'Brien
                  36 wins
                  36 wins
                  34 wins MAX

                  Why is this even debatable. If you fired a COY winner (4 straight years in the top 5 COY voting btw) and the team's franchise record holder for most wins in a season as a coach because he failed and only won 35 games on a team built around an injured JO, Tinsley, Dun and Troy, why in the hell would you give JOB the benefit of the doubt for doing worse with Dun, Troy, Granger, Hibbert, Rush, etc.

                  Is Hibbert really worse than broken JO? Are Watson/Ford really worse than disruptive, uncontrolled Tinsley (just 1/2 a season away from banishment at that point)? Are mid-season traded, try to figure out how to use them Dun and Troy worse now than they were then (check Dun's numbers before you answer)?

                  When JOB asks Larry "why are you firing me?" the answer should be "why WOULDN'T I fire you?"

                  Comment

                  • Anthem
                    White and Nerdy
                    • Jan 2004
                    • 24482

                    #10
                    Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                    Loved the win, but it means Indy didn't move up.

                    GS won, Washington won, New York won, Clips lost, Detroit/Sacramento/Philly didn't play.

                    3. Golden State - 12
                    4. Washington - 12
                    5. Detroit - 12
                    6. Sacramento - 11
                    7. Philadelphia - 9
                    8. New York - 8
                    9. LA Clippers - 8
                    10. Indiana
                    This space for rent.

                    Comment

                    • Hicks
                      Member
                      • Jun 2004
                      • 53117

                      #11
                      Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                      Yeah, we're picking 10th.

                      I don't know whether to or

                      Comment

                      • Unclebuck
                        Administrator
                        • Jan 2004
                        • 36200

                        #12
                        Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                        I think the best we could have gotten was 7th, maybe 6th, but looking at how badly the other teams have done and the Pacers easy schedule.

                        OK, we didn't expect the Pacers to win against the Jazz, Thunder and Bobcats (although each game was at home, but even if the pacers lose each of those games, that would give us 26 wins which puts us tied for 7th with the Sixers. with games at home against the Knicks, Nets, at Wizards (that is three wins there) Nets have no incentive now that they got their 10th win.

                        It isn't like the pacers have been beating good teams on the road during this stretch - they have only won 2 road games since the AS break - @Houston, and @ Detroit

                        I think I posted this a few days ago, now that I think about it.

                        but realistically 7-10 was the most likely anyway.
                        Last edited by Unclebuck; 04-05-2010, 10:12 AM.

                        Comment

                        • Anthem
                          White and Nerdy
                          • Jan 2004
                          • 24482

                          #13
                          Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                          We could still realistically hit 7th.
                          This space for rent.

                          Comment

                          • Naptown_Seth
                            NaptownSeth is all feel
                            • Jul 2006
                            • 12714

                            #14
                            Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                            Pacers can lose 53 games max.

                            Pacers can't catch:
                            1. New Jersey
                            2. Minny

                            Games (Pacer wins, other team's losses) left to eliminate Pacers (no ties)
                            3. Golden St - 1
                            4. Washington - 1
                            5. Sacto - 1
                            6. Detroit - 1
                            7. Philly - 4
                            8. Clips - 4
                            9. New York - 5

                            1 more win by the Pacers locks them to no worse than 7th.

                            Comment

                            • Putnam
                              Member
                              • Mar 2006
                              • 8727

                              #15
                              Re: Anthem's Annual Magic Number Thread

                              This thread makes my head spin.

                              It is hard to know, when someone says "better" or "worse" if they mean in the standings, or in the lottery.
                              And I won't be here to see the day
                              It all dries up and blows away
                              I'd hang around just to see
                              But they never had much use for me
                              In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

                              Comment

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