Re: 2010-2011 NBA Random Thoughts Thread part VII: Advent Children
I see no reason to believe Orlando would be capable of beating Miami in a 7 game series. They're just outmatched, especially if Miami plays Bosh at the 5, as they will.
Chris Bosh has a quickness advantage over Dwight Howard + a jump-shot that will pull away Howard from the rim + a great talent to draw fouls with his great first step. Orlando won't win that Bosh vs. Howard matchup for a significant margin - Bosh has always had good games vs. Howard and Howard's good games vs Bosh were always a product of Toronto's lack of perimeter defense + lack of help on the boards. Howard was never able to dominate Bosh 1x1 - he'll do better now because his post game improved but not well enough. And yesterday's game showed that Spoelstra won't bother to use doubles to defend Howard, which limits Orlando's game severely.
Cleveland can put out there a PG+Wade+Miller+LBR+Bosh line-up that will give fits to Orlando. They may even pull a LBJ+Wade+Miller+Stakhouse+Bosh line-up that will give them a huge advantages at 3 positions. And even Anthony + Haslem are capable defenders.
Orlando needs to trade for a better side-kick to Howard to beat Miami - at this point, teams like Atlanta and Chicago have better chances than them, matchup better in spite of being even more outclassed. Or their path to the title needs to go through a seeding that allows them to face and beat Boston in the ECF. Considering that they wouldn't have more than 50/50 odds vs Boston and that Boston would be underdogs vs. Miami, it's pretty rough.
On a positive note, Howard has been better than ever playing the post. Needs to drop those jumpshots when he has guys like Magloire and Ilgauskas on him though.
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Loved Joe Johnson's defensive intensity for Chicago last night. If he can put up that kind of effort every night, Thibodeau will give him a rotation spot. That would be a huge boost for Chicago, as he's a really talented player. Boris Diawesque.
Disappointed with Daye so far. I was hoping he had improved his offensive game in the Summer a lot more. And 13 rebounds in 63 minutes... Still early, but if he keeps this up, it'll be a good idea to scale back his role. Let him come off the bench, playing against weaker competition.
Oh, Rip Hamilton... as I've said before, it's tough to point out a single factor for his bad form. Lingering injuries these past couple of seasons + the lack of the same level of chemistry with the team distributor + age. I'm really unsure about the relative weight of each one of these factors , we'll find out during the 1st half of this season I guess.
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This is why with some teams one needs to take some time to allow them to gel (or to fail trying to do it): the Bucks look like a 50 wins team when they play line-ups from the last season and a 20 wins team when they play their prized acquisitions from this off-season. Delfino is solidifying himself as a quality player, playing smarter and with more purpose. Building on his strong last season.
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I've always liked Favors a lot, but he's been quicker catching up with the NBA game than I was expecting. A work-horse. One of the most promising players in the league, multiple DPOY awards potential.
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flox, to me Jefferson's defensive contributions last season were a bit underestimated. What the Spurs really lacked was speed and quickness in their big man rotation. A guy who could offset Duncan's loss of mobility. A player able to check on those bigs who play 15-18ft away from the basket and perimeter 4s, someone quick enough to rotate back to those guys after helping inside and a good pick'n'roll defender. I think Splitter may be that kind of player. If he is, the Spurs are an excellent elite wing defender from being an elite defensive team again. James Anderson doesn't seem up to much as a defensive player from what I've seen from him.
I see no reason to believe Orlando would be capable of beating Miami in a 7 game series. They're just outmatched, especially if Miami plays Bosh at the 5, as they will.
Chris Bosh has a quickness advantage over Dwight Howard + a jump-shot that will pull away Howard from the rim + a great talent to draw fouls with his great first step. Orlando won't win that Bosh vs. Howard matchup for a significant margin - Bosh has always had good games vs. Howard and Howard's good games vs Bosh were always a product of Toronto's lack of perimeter defense + lack of help on the boards. Howard was never able to dominate Bosh 1x1 - he'll do better now because his post game improved but not well enough. And yesterday's game showed that Spoelstra won't bother to use doubles to defend Howard, which limits Orlando's game severely.
Cleveland can put out there a PG+Wade+Miller+LBR+Bosh line-up that will give fits to Orlando. They may even pull a LBJ+Wade+Miller+Stakhouse+Bosh line-up that will give them a huge advantages at 3 positions. And even Anthony + Haslem are capable defenders.
Orlando needs to trade for a better side-kick to Howard to beat Miami - at this point, teams like Atlanta and Chicago have better chances than them, matchup better in spite of being even more outclassed. Or their path to the title needs to go through a seeding that allows them to face and beat Boston in the ECF. Considering that they wouldn't have more than 50/50 odds vs Boston and that Boston would be underdogs vs. Miami, it's pretty rough.
On a positive note, Howard has been better than ever playing the post. Needs to drop those jumpshots when he has guys like Magloire and Ilgauskas on him though.
-------------------
Loved Joe Johnson's defensive intensity for Chicago last night. If he can put up that kind of effort every night, Thibodeau will give him a rotation spot. That would be a huge boost for Chicago, as he's a really talented player. Boris Diawesque.
Disappointed with Daye so far. I was hoping he had improved his offensive game in the Summer a lot more. And 13 rebounds in 63 minutes... Still early, but if he keeps this up, it'll be a good idea to scale back his role. Let him come off the bench, playing against weaker competition.
Oh, Rip Hamilton... as I've said before, it's tough to point out a single factor for his bad form. Lingering injuries these past couple of seasons + the lack of the same level of chemistry with the team distributor + age. I'm really unsure about the relative weight of each one of these factors , we'll find out during the 1st half of this season I guess.
--------------------
This is why with some teams one needs to take some time to allow them to gel (or to fail trying to do it): the Bucks look like a 50 wins team when they play line-ups from the last season and a 20 wins team when they play their prized acquisitions from this off-season. Delfino is solidifying himself as a quality player, playing smarter and with more purpose. Building on his strong last season.
------------
I've always liked Favors a lot, but he's been quicker catching up with the NBA game than I was expecting. A work-horse. One of the most promising players in the league, multiple DPOY awards potential.
---------------
flox, to me Jefferson's defensive contributions last season were a bit underestimated. What the Spurs really lacked was speed and quickness in their big man rotation. A guy who could offset Duncan's loss of mobility. A player able to check on those bigs who play 15-18ft away from the basket and perimeter 4s, someone quick enough to rotate back to those guys after helping inside and a good pick'n'roll defender. I think Splitter may be that kind of player. If he is, the Spurs are an excellent elite wing defender from being an elite defensive team again. James Anderson doesn't seem up to much as a defensive player from what I've seen from him.
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