Measuring Troy against the NBA

[Putnam]

Bashing Troy has been a favorite pastime this past season. In fact, it is probably more popular than at any time since Homer's Iliad was written.

One of the favorite points against Troy has always been that he shoots too many 3s. Another is that he gets few offensive rebounds relative to his rebounding total.

Judging by the posts on this forum, Troy Murphy is a freak, a monster, an abomination. If this were true, then Troy's season stats would appear extreme when compared with the rest of the NBA. He'd be away out at the extreme of the range of all players. But this chart shows that Troy is not an extreme outlier:




The red dot represents Troy's position among all NBA players with 1,000 or more minutes in the past regular season.

The horizontal axis is Off Reb / Total Reb. Murphy is not extreme, but is in the middle third of all players.

The vertical axis shows 3PA / FGA. Murphy is in the top 50 here, but he is not off the chart. Not extreme at all. And the chart is skewed by the large number of players clustered at the bottom of the chart -- who can't shoot the 3 at all.

The yellow dot is Granger -- who isn't that far off Murphy's values for both factors. And that blue dot that overlaps Murphy's red? That is Ray Allen. How many of you Troy-haters have ever wasted a moment hating on Ray's game?


Now, listen, It would be nice if Troy got more Offensive rebounds as a Pacers. He showed at Golden State that he can get offensive rebounds and was willing to. He doesn't now because of the way he's played. Hate O'Brien if you must, but don't hate Murphy for his rebounding. Anyway, let me give you four names of players who get even fewer offensive rebounds (proportionately) than Troy: Rasheed. Dirk, Kevin. LeBron.



Troy Murphy has deficiencies in his game. He is a poor defender because he's too tall to move fast. People hate him because he's not as tough as the players he has to guard. His +/- is deplorable.

But a lot of the hate against Troy is merely because of preconceptions of what a player his size ought to be like. Peck spat out the words "stretch forward" in the season review as if he'd been saying "cannibal pederast." But Troy's stats don't deserve that kind of hate (even if his defense does).


The hate for Troy is not really based on his game, but on expectations of what a player his height ought to do. The hate is no more rational than thinking that a girl as cute as that shouldn't be so smart. Or that a car with such a neat custom paint job ought to have better speakers.




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[BillS]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

Bashing Troy has been a favorite pastime this past season. In fact, it is probably more popular than at any time since Homer's Iliad was written.

My favorite one-liner of the year.

[Hicks]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

The fact that you have to compare Troy to perimeter players with regards to offensive rebounding makes the argument for us.

We're not talking about a Kevin Durant where he's really tall but is still a swingman. Troy doesn't have a perimeter player's body.

[BillS]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

The fact that you have to compare Troy to perimeter players with regards to offensive rebounding makes the argument for us.

I think the problem for nearly everyone isn't Troy, it is how he is used. Unfortunately, he can't play at 2 or 3 because he can't defend well enough, and being used as the biggest guy on the floor doesn't work because he just isn't physical enough.

Put him with a knock-you-to-the-floor post defender and we suddenly think he's part of an amazing combination.

[Hicks]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

Unfortunately, he can't play at 2 or 3 because he can't defend well enough, and being used as the biggest guy on the floor doesn't work because he just isn't physical enough.

He can pretend to guard 4's, but has no chance guarding swingmen. That makes him a 4.

Put him with a knock-you-to-the-floor post defender and we suddenly think he's part of an amazing combination.

Not really; it means you have an amazing post defender next to a terrible one.

[Putnam]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

The fact that you have to compare Troy to perimeter players with regards to offensive rebounding makes the argument for us.

That wasn't my intent. I was intending to compare him to all players with more than 1,000 minutes.


Troy has serious deficiencies in his game. That isn't being disputed here at all. There's no reason in this thread to assert that Troy is a bad defender. I already said that myself in the OP.

I am only trying to assert that two of the particular aspects for which he is most criticized are not as outrageous as his haters profess.

My vision is a little wonky, but when I look at the chart, the red dot seems to me to be in the middle of a bunch of other dots -- not way off by itself.


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[Hicks]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

And doing so misses the point of what some of his critics are talking about. You would want to compare him to other power forwards.

Troy Murphy plays like a slow small forward on offense and a weak/slow power forward on defense. His body type is definitely more four than three.

[Putnam]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

The fact that you have to compare Troy to perimeter players with regards to offensive rebounding makes the argument for us.

How so? Troy is also a perimeter player.


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[Putnam]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

Troy Murphy plays like a slow small forward on offense and a weak/slow power forward on defense. His body type is definitely more four than three.

Yep. If you start with expectation based on body type, he is a failure.

[Brad8888]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

So, you are saying that Troy is a prototypical stretch forward who likely has a cute girlfriend who is also smart, and that he also drives a car with a neat paint job that has really nice speakers?

Why shouldn't we have irrational hatred towards somebody like that, especially since few of us here probably have even ONE of those traits no matter how much we would like to?

Who are the 10 or so players that make up the arc furthest away from the origin of your scatter chart, and more importantly the three who seem to maximize both axes concurrently?

Now, after having the identities of those players, how do we go about obtaining one or more of them? Could we perhaps trade Murphy for one of them?

Actually, you are right. We probably are primarily guilty of having misdirected anger towards Murphy instead of O'B. After all, the most vehement of O'B detractors would probably be considered over the top if this portion of our disgust with the current product on the floor were properly placed on O'Brien as well. So, we try to fit in and fall closer to the middle view that indicates that O'Brien should have been fired after about 20 or so games this year, as opposed to the more extreme view that he should have been fired about 20 or so games into his first season here.

[McKeyFan]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

That was a lot of work. Nice graphs, Putnam.

My sense is that Troy is not criticized primarily for threes or lack of offensive rebounds. He is mostly criticized for poor defense. You did acknowledge his poor defense, but all the graphs were about something else.

The +/- is the only tool I can think of to compare Troy with other players regarding his defense. Maybe you can come up with some others, because that is the real sticking point.

Defense is half of the game, and based on that, he is the 7th or 8th best player on our roster, but he just about gets the most minutes.

[BillS]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

While you'd always like to have 5 players who have no flaws and are at the top in every category, that really isn't practical.

Good teams have a combination of players who fit together well as much because each one helps cover the deficiencies of the others as the do because they are somehow free of flaws.

Think of a team with one superstar level player, who takes pressure off everyone else to a great extent. Then fill the rest of the floor with guys who have strengths that fit together well. Now you have a fairly successful NBA team.

I think Troy is one of those "rest of the floor" guys, because you know EXACTLY what his strengths and flaws are. You just need to be able to fill in those gaps.

For example, if you have solid perimeter defense you don't get the kind of penetration that Troy is worst at. When he can be toe-to-toe with someone rather than having to defend a dribble, he is much closer to average. With that kind of situation, he looks like a much better player.

The mistake everyone seems to make is to throw the baby out with the bathwater. It's the Derrick McKey debate - is he Satan if you weren't so desperate for that 3rd scoring option?

[imawhat]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

Thanks Putnam. Can you do a graph with just power forwards and centers?

[Tom White]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

The fact that you have to compare Troy to perimeter players with regards to offensive rebounding makes the argument for us.

We're not talking about a Kevin Durant where he's really tall but is still a swingman. Troy doesn't have a perimeter player's body.

Ha! I thought the Kevin referred to Garnett.

[Infinite MAN_force]

Re: Measuring Troy against the NBA

Troy's offensive rebounding is a direct result of how he plays. He's not going to get many oppurtunities camped out by the three point line, and his lack of athleticism doesn't really bode well for trying to crash the boards.

My problem with Troy soley revolves around the defensive end, and his stat padding. Its hard to have any respect for a player that pads his stats so blatently. He's the anti-Dale.