The Pacers best lineup

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  • Cubs231721
    Member
    • Aug 2006
    • 4325

    #1

    The Pacers best lineup

    It's actually a 4 man lineup. Because of injuries, the 5th guy hasn't been consistent, although it has almost always been either Toppin or Nesmith. But the lineup is:

    Tyrese Haliburton
    Bruce Brown
    Buddy Hield
    Myles Turner

    That 4 man group has logged 93 minutes together so far this season. Here's their results.

    Offensive Rating: 138.8 (would be first in the league by a mile)
    Defensive Rating: 108.6 (7th best in the league)
    Net Rating: 30.2 (Good starting lineups tend to have great net ratings, but that number is elite)

    Offensive rebounding percentage: 25.3 (14th best)
    Defensive rebounding percentage (17th best)

    TS%: 71 percent (that number is eye popping good)

    This lineup for the Pacers is +70 in 93 minutes. All other Pacer lineups combined are -21 in 627 minutes.

  • SaintLouisan
    Member
    • Jan 2018
    • 4278

    #2
    That 4 man group has logged 93 minutes together so far this season.
    How much is that relative to other (top) lineups? Seems low even at this point in the seasonโ€ฆmakes me wonder about sample size ie whether this is a skewed result.

    Comment

    • Cubs231721
      Member
      • Aug 2006
      • 4325

      #3
      Originally posted by SaintLouisan

      How much is that relative to other (top) lineups? Seems low even at this point in the seasonโ€ฆmakes me wonder about sample size ie whether this is a skewed result.
      Thank you for bringing this up. I forgot to. It is low. It's about 1/2 to a 1/3 the sample size of some other lineups.

      I don't expect +30 to continue. Honestly, it almost can't. That would be Boston level, and I don't think anyone thinks that Indiana starting 5 is anywhere in the same ballpark as Boston's.

      But I think it will settle out quite a bit better than the Pacers starting lineup to start the season, which had a net rating of -1.8 in 134 minutes.

      Comment

      • Dece
        5Y $150 for Myles
        • Oct 2007
        • 4189

        #4
        I'm trying to look at this, nba.com doesn't let you set a minutes played together minimum which is a little annoying.

        M. Turner - B. Brown - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton ---------- 199 minutes with a 4.0 net rating
        M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin ------- 178 minutes with a 1.8 net rating
        M. Turner - B. Brown - O. Toppin - B. Mathurin ----------- 151 minutes with a -3.4 net rating
        M. Turner - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin ------- 149 minutes with a 0.8 net rating
        B. Brown - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin -------- 143 minutes with a -2.4 net rating
        M. Turner - B. Hield - B. Brown - T. Haliburton ------------- 93 minutes with a 30.2 net rating

        Seems like this does have a pretty limited sample size. Only the 6th most common Pacers 4 man. I think the story here is more about the 3 man than the 4 man though:

        M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton -------- 293 minutes with a 11.1 net rating.

        This is the most played 3 man for the Pacers. Not surprising, as it is the Pacers 3 best players.

        Can play around with this here: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/ad...mID=1610612754

        Comment

        • Cubs231721
          Member
          • Aug 2006
          • 4325

          #5
          Originally posted by Dece
          I'm trying to look at this, nba.com doesn't let you set a minutes played together minimum which is a little annoying.

          M. Turner - B. Brown - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton ---------- 199 minutes with a 4.0 net rating
          M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin ------- 178 minutes with a 1.8 net rating
          M. Turner - B. Brown - O. Toppin - B. Mathurin ----------- 151 minutes with a -3.4 net rating
          M. Turner - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin ------- 149 minutes with a 0.8 net rating
          B. Brown - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin -------- 143 minutes with a -2.4 net rating
          M. Turner - B. Hield - B. Brown - T. Haliburton ------------- 93 minutes with a 30.2 net rating

          Seems like this does have a pretty limited sample size. Only the 6th most common Pacers 4 man. I think the story here is more about the 3 man than the 4 man though:

          M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton -------- 293 minutes with a 11.1 net rating.

          This is the most played 3 man for the Pacers. Not surprising, as it is the Pacers 3 best players.

          Can play around with this here: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/ad...mID=1610612754
          The reason I cited the 4 man instead of the 3 man is because of this when you calculate the difference between those:

          Haliburton, Brown, Turner with Hield: 93 minutes, +70
          Haliburton, Brown, Turner without Hield: 200 minutes, +6

          Around 100 minutes is where lineup data at least starts to have relevance. And that difference is so stark between those numbers that I had to go with the 4 man data.

          Comment

          • Downtown Bang!
            Member
            • Mar 2011
            • 1993

            #6
            Thanks for digging up and posting this along with other good stuff lately. The small ball lineups with Myles have been generally competitive and effective this year and last. This, Nembhard getting healthy, needing minutes for Mathurin etc. Is not going to support the fledgling hopes of a two big lineup spawned during the Piston game.

            Comment

            • festar35
              Member
              • Apr 2011
              • 2835

              #7
              It really feels to me we just need to find the right PF to round this roster out. Now that's obviously easier said than done, but the idea of Walker is exactly what comes to mind when I think of the right PF.

              Obviously, there are a couple of issues with that, the biggest him being 19 and not seeing the court.

              The 2 best names to me are Siakam and Markkanen, but who knows if they're available. Who knows, maybe in 2-3 years Walker is starting, and this becomes a non-issue.

              Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk

              Comment

              • Cubs231721
                Member
                • Aug 2006
                • 4325

                #8
                Updating this:

                This lineup has slowed down as expected. But their numbers are actually still pretty elite leaguewide. The 4 man lineup is +18.9 per 100 possessions in 243 minutes now. That's a much healthier sample size of pretty elite production. The 5 man with Toppin is actually even better at +19.9, albeit only in 171 minutes.

                Now if I was just watching the games, I would say that's just because of Haliburton right? He's the only one playing great of that group. But look at this:

                4 man group: +104 in 243 minutes
                All other Haliburton lineups: -65 in 564 minutes

                That's a massive, massive difference. So why is this grouping so good together when the rest of the Haliburton minutes are a negative? Hopefully that's something the Pacers can figure out when they are trying to build around Haliburton.

                Comment

                • sav
                  Member
                  • Jun 2012
                  • 5469

                  #9
                  Originally posted by festar35
                  It really feels to me we just need to find the right PF to round this roster out. Now that's obviously easier said than done, but the idea of Walker is exactly what comes to mind when I think of the right PF.

                  Obviously, there are a couple of issues with that, the biggest him being 19 and not seeing the court.

                  The 2 best names to me are Siakam and Markkanen, but who knows if they're available. Who knows, maybe in 2-3 years Walker is starting, and this becomes a non-issue.

                  Sent from my SM-G991B using Tapatalk
                  Siakam is rumored to be available. We need to get him. He would be the all-star we need along side of Halliburton. Walker can play at SF when he is ready.

                  Comment

                  • CJ Jones
                    Member
                    • Jan 2012
                    • 9259

                    #10
                    Siakam would be an excellent fit but 29 seems too old for the timeline we're looking at. I guess it depends on what they wanted but I wouldn't give up much for him.

                    This team and fanbase need to be patient. We don't want to end up going all in and still be middling like the Cavs and Hawks.

                    Comment

                    • Downtown Bang!
                      Member
                      • Mar 2011
                      • 1993

                      #11
                      I mean they are three of the best 5 NBA players not named Haliburton on the team and their various skill sets contribute pretty well to the lineup fit & balance. Over the course of the season I don't believe Toppin will be a top 6 Pacer but definitely been playing like he is for about a month.

                      Comment

                      • NuffSaid
                        Member
                        • Mar 2006
                        • 2813

                        #12
                        Originally posted by Dece
                        I'm trying to look at this, nba.com doesn't let you set a minutes played together minimum which is a little annoying.

                        M. Turner - B. Brown - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton ---------- 199 minutes with a 4.0 net rating
                        M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin ------- 178 minutes with a 1.8 net rating
                        M. Turner - B. Brown - O. Toppin - B. Mathurin ----------- 151 minutes with a -3.4 net rating
                        M. Turner - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin ------- 149 minutes with a 0.8 net rating
                        B. Brown - O. Toppin - T. Haliburton - B. Mathurin -------- 143 minutes with a -2.4 net rating
                        M. Turner - B. Hield - B. Brown - T. Haliburton ------------- 93 minutes with a 30.2 net rating

                        Seems like this does have a pretty limited sample size. Only the 6th most common Pacers 4 man. I think the story here is more about the 3 man than the 4 man though:

                        M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton -------- 293 minutes with a 11.1 net rating.

                        This is the most played 3 man for the Pacers. Not surprising, as it is the Pacers 3 best players.

                        Can play around with this here: https://www.nba.com/stats/lineups/ad...mID=1610612754
                        I'm still trying to figure out how Bruce Brown fits into "the Pacers 3 best players" mix. Over the course of the last 10 games from playing against the Grizzlies backwards, Bruce has score more than 12 pts 3 times: 13 against the Celtics, 17 against the T-Wolves and 30 against the Heat. Of those 3 scoring feats, Haliburton was out sick or injured for 2 of them - the Heat and T-Wolves games. Which means he's had only 1 game where he and Haliburton paired up and he scored 12+ points. At no other point during this stretch had he faired better. If you average out his ppg over this 10-game span, that amounts to 10.5 ppg. Now, granted this is a small sampling size (10 games), but it troubles me that Bruce Brown has only shown up big twice - against the T-Wolves and Heat - and then only when Haliburton has sat. Some would say, "Well, at least he stepped up," but the biggest question is why doesn't he "step up his game whether Haliburton plays or not?

                        What am I missing here?

                        Comment

                        • Dece
                          5Y $150 for Myles
                          • Oct 2007
                          • 4189

                          #13
                          Originally posted by NuffSaid

                          I'm still trying to figure out how Bruce Brown fits into "the Pacers 3 best players" mix. Over the course of the last 10 games from playing against the Grizzlies backwards, Bruce has score more than 12 pts 3 times: 13 against the Celtics, 17 against the T-Wolves and 30 against the Heat. Of those 3 scoring feats, Haliburton was out sick or injured for 2 of them - the Heat and T-Wolves games. Which means he's had only 1 game where he and Haliburton paired up and he scored 12+ points. At no other point during this stretch had he faired better. If you average out his ppg over this 10-game span, that amounts to 10.5 ppg. Now, granted this is a small sampling size (10 games), but it troubles me that Bruce Brown has only shown up big twice - against the T-Wolves and Heat - and then only when Haliburton has sat. Some would say, "Well, at least he stepped up," but the biggest question is why doesn't he "step up his game whether Haliburton plays or not?

                          What am I missing here?
                          M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton -------- 497 minutes (most of any Pacer 3 man) with a 10 net rating. -- so this really hasn't changed much since the metric was posted in late November.

                          If you're missing something I'd say it's something like...Bruce is a championship level 6th man, but if he's one of your 3 best players (and I think he is on this roster) then your roster is dog. He's meant to have 4-5 guys better than him. He isn't meant to take over every night, on a great team him filling in the gaps nightly with the occasional outburst is exactly what you'd expect. Unfortunately this team would need much more than he is capable of to be any good.

                          Comment

                          • NuffSaid
                            Member
                            • Mar 2006
                            • 2813

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Dece

                            M. Turner - B. Brown - T. Haliburton -------- 497 minutes (most of any Pacer 3 man) with a 10 net rating. -- so this really hasn't changed much since the metric was posted in late November.

                            If you're missing something I'd say it's something like...Bruce is a championship level 6th man, but if he's one of your 3 best players (and I think he is on this roster) then your roster is dog. He's meant to have 4-5 guys better than him. He isn't meant to take over every night, on a great team him filling in the gaps nightly with the occasional outburst is exactly what you'd expect. Unfortunately this team would need much more than he is capable of to be any good.
                            Then Bruce Brown needs to come off the bench....PERIOD. Keep him doing what he tends to do best thriving with the 2nd unit. Otherwise, this team will continue to struggle to find its groove with him among the starters. In short, don't force a square peg into a round hole.

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