The fate of this team all rides on this...

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  • LongTimePacerFan
    Member
    • Feb 2011
    • 1716

    #1

    The fate of this team all rides on this...

    The outcome of the 7th pick of the 2023 draft.

    Let's face it, there are no high lottery picks coming in the near future. We aren't going to attract a superstar to Indianapolis in free agency.

    Meanwhile, no matter how high you are in Hali, Mathurin, and our supporting cast, we are clearly still a star away.

    I see three outcomes.

    1. 7th pick is a bust and this team tops out as low seed playoff team.

    2. 7th pick is a good, not great player, and this team tops out as a middle seed playoff team, maybe even winning a series or 2 in the next few years.

    3. 7th pick is a star, and this team becomes an actual contender for at least a conference finals.
  • RamBo_Lamar
    Member
    • Aug 2006
    • 2681

    #2
    I would clearly prefer outcome 3, but there is also a 4th possible outcome. The #7 pick being packaged in a trade for an already established and known commodity, or maybe even move up in the draft. Agreed that this is a very pivotal moment that they must get right and hopefully "hit it out of the ball park".
    Last edited by RamBo_Lamar; 05-21-2023, 02:29 PM.

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    • natjjohn
      Member
      • Jan 2011
      • 578

      #3
      7th and Myles for Embiid.

      Embiid finally makes it to an ECF

      i can dream the impossible

      Comment

      • BornIndy
        INDIANA
        • May 2013
        • 8903

        #4
        Keep the 7th pick, use future assets to trade for a proven player. Have to make use of the cap space before Haliburton gets his extension.

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        • LongTimePacerFan
          Member
          • Feb 2011
          • 1716

          #5
          Originally posted by RamBo_Lamar
          I would clearly prefer outcome 3, but there is also a 4th possible outcome. The #7 pick being packaged in a trade for an already established and known commodity, or maybe even move up in the draft. Agreed that this is a very pivotal moment that they must get right and "hit it out of the ball park".
          Option 4 is just option 2. You can get a good veteran player for the 7th pick, but you aren't getting a great one.

          I'd love to trade up in the draft, but I don't see it happening. The value drop off is just so steep. I'd give Portland the 7th pick plus 3 more firsts for the 3rd pick, but they'd never even consider it.

          Comment

          • Guest

            #6
            [QUOTE=RamBo_Lamar;n3759050]I would clearly prefer outcome 3, but there is also a 4th possible outcome. The #7 pick being packaged in a trade for an already established and known commodity, or maybe even move up in the draft. Agreed that this is a very pivotal moment that they must get right and "hit it out of the ball park".

            This draft is LOADED, I don’t think a “known commodity” is a good idea. Anyone good enough to be worth pick seven would cause a red flag if a team was willing to part with them. Taylor Hendricks, Cason Wallace, Jarace Walker, Cam Whitmore, Anthony Black, Ausur Thompson (my least favorite) will likely be a Pacer. The draft is full of young, athletic, 3 point shooting, 6 foot 8 wings. We might not even need to move up. We could try to move up the last two picks. I think we are on our way to greatness as long as KP doesn’t mess it up again.

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            • Tony Valente
              Member
              • Aug 2005
              • 223

              #7
              Originally posted by natjjohn
              7 first round picks and Myles for Embiid
              Fixed.

              Comment

              • sav
                Member
                • Jun 2012
                • 5469

                #8
                I have not followed college basketball very closely, so my opinion is based on looking at scouting reports, mock drafts, limited college basketball games and gut feeling.

                It seems to me like we can get a very good player at #7. Halliburton is an all-star, if Mathurin and the #7 pick become all-stars (I think Mathurin is a real possibility, the #7 pick depends on who we get) then we have 3 all-stars. Any team with 3 all-stars should make a deep playoff run and have a chance at the title.

                I think our pick at #7 is very important…plus Carlisle not starting Nembhard.

                Comment

                • CableKC
                  Member
                  • Mar 2005
                  • 36691

                  #9
                  I think that if the Pacers draft one of:

                  Hendricks
                  Black
                  Jarace
                  Ausar
                  Whitmore

                  they will do fine. If 3 or more are on the board, I can see arguments that one may be better than the other. But it won’t be a catastrophically bad pick as long as one of them are picked, regardless of who is left on the board.

                  The only real argument that can be made is if none of them are picked and they decide to go with Gradey, Keynote or Nick Smith.


                  Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

                  Comment

                  • pacers_heath
                    Member
                    • Nov 2009
                    • 5032

                    #10
                    Looking at the 7th pick historically I'd guess there is about 50% chance we get an all star level player, 75% chance we get a starting level player or better, and 25% chance of a bust
                    Lifelong pacers fan

                    Comment

                    • LongTimePacerFan
                      Member
                      • Feb 2011
                      • 1716

                      #11
                      Originally posted by pacers_heath
                      Looking at the 7th pick historically I'd guess there is about 50% chance we get an all star level player, 75% chance we get a starting level player or better, and 25% chance of a bust
                      50% chance of getting an all-star level player is too optimistic. Hayes, Kaminga, and Sharpe are too early to tell at best right now.

                      The previous 20 picks have what, 4 guys who have made all star teams. If you go back to 1990 you add Stoudamire and Rip Hamilton.

                      So 6 all-stars in 30 plus years. More like a 20% chance, not 50%.




                      2019 Coby White, North Carolina – Chicago Bulls
                      2018 Wendell Carter Jr., Duke – Chicago Bulls
                      2017 Lauri Markkanen, Arizona – Minnesota Timberwolves
                      2016 Jamal Murray, Kentucky – Denver Nuggets
                      2015 Emmanuel Mudiay, Guangdong Tigers – Denver Nuggets
                      2014 Julius Randle, Kentucky – Los Angeles Lakers
                      2013 Ben McLemore, Kansas – Sacramento Kings
                      2012 Harrison Barnes, North Carolina – Golden State Warriors
                      2011 Bismack Biyombo, Congo – Sacramento Kings
                      2010 Greg Monroe, Georgetown – Detroit Pistons

                      2000’s

                      2009 Stephen Curry, Davidson – Golden State Warriors
                      2008 Eric Gordon, Indiana – L.A. Clippers
                      2007 Corey Brewer, Florida – Minnesota Timberwolves
                      2006 Randy Foye, Villanova – Boston Celtics
                      2005 Charlie Villanueva, Connecticut – Toronto Raptors
                      2004 Luol Deng, Duke – Phoenix Suns
                      2003 Kirk Hinrich, Kansas – Chicago Bulls
                      2002 Nene Hilario, Brazil – New York
                      2001 Eddie Griffin, Seton Hall – New Jersey
                      2000 Chris Mihm, Texas – Chicago Bulls

                      Comment

                      • owl
                        Member
                        • Mar 2004
                        • 17685

                        #12
                        Originally posted by CableKC
                        I think that if the Pacers draft one of:

                        Hendricks
                        Black
                        Jarace
                        Ausar
                        Whitmore

                        they will do fine. If 3 or more are on the board, I can see arguments that one may be better than the other. But it won’t be a catastrophically bad pick as long as one of them are picked, regardless of who is left on the board.

                        The only real argument that can be made is if none of them are picked and they decide to go with Gradey, Keynote or Nick Smith.

                        I like this bunch you listed. Bigs have a higher fail rate
                        These are basically sf types with maybe a pf in Jarace
                        and Hendricks
                        {o,o}
                        |)__)
                        -"-"-

                        Comment

                        • Pacergeek
                          Member
                          • Apr 2009
                          • 9074

                          #13
                          In 2016 Dunn, Bender, Simmons, and Hield were all drafted before Jamal Murray. How do these GM's keep their jobs? They are all as bad as Pritchard .​​​​
                          Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

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                          • kent beckley
                            Member
                            • May 2012
                            • 5029

                            #14
                            Originally posted by Pacergeek
                            In 2016 Dunn, Bender, Simmons, and Hield were all drafted before Jamal Murray. How do these GM's keep their jobs? They are all as bad as Pritchard .​​​​
                            Because it’s hard to find clairvoyant people to replace them

                            Comment

                            • CJ Jones
                              Member
                              • Jan 2012
                              • 9259

                              #15
                              No it doesn't. This team has a potential superstar PG in Hali and a HOF coach. The league's overflowing with talent and there's only so much money out there. Players will come play in Indiana. The future success of the team doesn't rely on this one pick.

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