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Iโll never forget how we passed on drafting Jrue when our biggest position of need was point and every media outlet had us picking him and we took unathletic Hansborough.Comment
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Could you guarantee that we would have the 5th pick (or better) had we traded away Buddy? Who's to say that someone else (like Mathurin, for example) wouldn't step up on a bigger role and replace his scoring load?
I don't think that trading Buddy for the 60th pick would guarantee a top pick. The only thing that it would guarantee would be to give out an asset for nothing.Originally posted by IrishPacer
Empty vessels make the most noise.Comment
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Guarantee is a strong word, but the stat we've looked at in the past for this has been WAR. Buddy has a 4.8 WAR, so let's call him worth 5 wins. Mathurin has a .9 WAR, 1 win. In the world where Mathurin gets the experience and becomes so much better that his WAR becomes 6, that's still more valuable than having Buddy on the roster.
Buddy + the 8th lotto position for the 5th lotto position is a win.
Buddy for Mathurin becoming worth 6 WAR is also a win.
Sign me up for either of those trades.Comment
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Fair enough. So, let's accept that Buddy added 5 wins to our season. With those 5 wins deducted, we would have almost certainly secured a top 5 pick. We could even challenge Charlotte for #4.
With those 5 wins, though, we can finish anywhere from 5th to 9th. We are currently 7th, before the result of tonight's game at least. Keep in mind that we're still only a game ahead of 5th so the 5th pick is still very much in play.
The best case scenario here is that we still get the 5th pick, anyway. In that case, not trading Buddy for the 60th pick was 100% the correct move. We didn't sacrifice an asset for nothing and we still got our pick.
The worst case scenario is that we get the 9th pick. We didn't sacrifice our asset for nothing but we did pay for it by dropping 4 spots in the draft. 4 spots that could definitely end up being important.
A middling scenarion would be to get the 7th pick. We didn't sacrifice our asset for nothing but we did drop 2 spots and that could be important. How important it really is will depend on what happens on draft day.
Let's add another parameter to this equation, though. What if we find a much better market for Buddy next year? What if instead of trading him for the 60th pick, we manage to trade him for a pick in the late 20s or early 30s? Would that pick justify a potential drop? Mind you, I'm using the word potential here because we may still get that #5 pick. We may get our pie and eat it too.Originally posted by IrishPacer
Empty vessels make the most noise.Comment
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If the Pacers manage to end up 5th and keeping Buddy only ends up being the difference between 4 and 5, or maybe even just 5 or 5, then that's a solid outcome. I hope that happens.
I would still wonder about the value of Mathurin having a substantial portion of the minutes and shot attempts Buddy got, but I would have much less to still be annoyed about in this matter, for sure.
I am skeptical of the idea that Buddy will be worth more next year. Guy is having a historic shooting year, and I don't think it goes up from here. Maybe I'm undervaluing how much his contract becoming expiring adds. I also don't actually believe the Pacers will trade him in any event. The Pacers have a consistent history of just letting guys play their contract out and not getting any value out of them.
In regards to valuing late first rounders, say pick 25+...I don't actually think those picks have that much value these days. Seems like teams almost want those less than second rounders anymore. That's why GMs are asking for 3-4-5 draft picks for fairly unimpressive guys, they just don't value picks in that range as much anymore. Whether that's right or wrong, it's hard to say.
Anyway, I hope the Pacers end up in lotto spot number 5. Or maybe the universe will come up Pacers and they'll finish in spot 8 but get drawn for a top 3 pick anyway. Anything could happen. I just don't personally think Buddy was a net positive to the 2023 Pacers, and I don't think he will be in 2024 either. I'd rather he not be around. All his shots and minutes ought to be Mathurin, Hali, Nembhard, etc. There's no reason to have a veteran one dimensional shooter on a team in the position of the Pacers. I consider an open roster spot more valuable, let alone any draft pick. The only thing that could sell me on a player like his value to a roster like the Pacers is if there's something to be said about the cultural value he brings. Plays the right way, brings the right attitude, etc. helps the young guards become better than having those minutes and shots would have made them. I don't perceive him having that sort of value, and I've never heard or read any report that suggests he does. Doesn't mean he couldn't, though.Comment
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I believe that the market was simply a bit too weird this season what with all the lopsided trades that happened over the summer (like the Gobert deal). If the market normalizes next year, I do think that we can get a better pick for Buddy. As I said before, of course, it is a risk and we'll have to see how it pans out.
As for late 1sts / early 2nds, I'd say that it depends on the draft in question. In some drafts, it's not worth a lot, I agree. In other drafts, it's worth quite a lot. It all has to do with the depth of the draft and its quality. You can never know for sure whether that pick is worth a lot or not before hand. You just get the asset and see what happens when it's time to pick.Originally posted by IrishPacer
Empty vessels make the most noise.Comment
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Rule #3
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Regarding infractions, currently they carry a value of one point each, and that point will expire in 31 days. If at any point a poster is carrying three points at the same time, that poster will be suspended until the oldest of the three points expires.
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Title of the Article
Author's Name
Indianapolis Star
Rule #6And I would put the pasted article in quotes like this.
We cannot tolerate illegal videos on Pacers Digest. This means do not share any links to them, do not mention any websites that host them or link to them, do not describe how to find them in any way, and do not ask about them. Posts doing anything of the sort will be removed, the offenders will be contacted privately, and if the problem becomes habitual, you will be suspended, and if it still persists, you will probably be banned.
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It may or may not go without saying, but this goes for threads and posts as well, particularly when it's not made on the off-topic board (Market Square).
We do make exceptions if we feel the content is both innocuous and unlikely to cause social problems on the forum (such as wishing someone a Merry Christmas or a Happy Easter), and we also also make exceptions if such topics come up with regards to a sports figure (such as the Lance Stephenson situation bringing up discussions of domestic abuse and the law, or when Jason Collins came out as gay and how that lead to some discussion about gay rights).
However, once the discussion seems to be more/mostly about the political issues instead of the sports figure or his specific situation, the thread is usually closed.
Rule #8
We prefer self-restraint and/or modesty when making jokes or off topic comments in a sports discussion thread. They can be fun, but sometimes they derail or distract from a topic, and we don't want to see that happen. If we feel it is a problem, we will either delete or move those posts from the thread.
Rule #9
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Rule #10
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Rule #11
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