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And the tank is back, hoping they don’t win another game for the rest of the year 
Today we are rooting for Toronto, Orlando and Boston
Today we are rooting for Toronto, Orlando and Boston
The Rules of Pacers Digest
Hello everyone,
Whether your are a long standing forum member or whether you have just registered today, it's a good idea to read and review the rules below so that you have a very good idea of what to expect when you come to Pacers Digest.
A quick note to new members: Your posts will not immediately show up when you make them. An administrator has to approve at least your first post before the forum software will later upgrade your account to the status of a fully-registered member. This usually happens within a couple of hours or so after your post(s) is/are approved, so you may need to be a little patient at first.
Why do we do this? So that it's more difficult for spammers (be they human or robot) to post, and so users who are banned cannot immediately re-register and start dousing people with verbal flames.
Below are the rules of Pacers Digest. After you have read them, you will have a very good sense of where we are coming from, what we expect, what we don't want to see, and how we react to things.
Rule #1
Pacers Digest is intended to be a place to discuss basketball without having to deal with the kinds of behaviors or attitudes that distract people from sticking with the discussion of the topics at hand. These unwanted distractions can come in many forms, and admittedly it can sometimes be tricky to pin down each and every kind that can rear its ugly head, but we feel that the following examples and explanations cover at least a good portion of that ground and should at least give people a pretty good idea of the kinds of things we actively discourage:
"Anyone who __________ is a liar / a fool / an idiot / a blind homer / has their head buried in the sand / a blind hater / doesn't know basketball / doesn't watch the games"
"People with intelligence will agree with me when I say that __________"
"Only stupid people think / believe / do ___________"
"I can't wait to hear something from PosterX when he/she sees that **insert a given incident or current event that will have probably upset or disappointed PosterX here**"
"He/she is just delusional"
"This thread is stupid / worthless / embarrassing"
"I'm going to take a moment to point and
/ laugh at PosterX / GroupOfPeopleY who thought / believed *insert though/belief here*"
"Remember when PosterX said OldCommentY that no longer looks good?"
In general, if a comment goes from purely on topic to something 'ad hominem' (personal jabs, personal shots, attacks, flames, however you want to call it, towards a person, or a group of people, or a given city/state/country of people), those are most likely going to be found intolerable.
We also dissuade passive aggressive behavior. This can be various things, but common examples include statements that are basically meant to imply someone is either stupid or otherwise incapable of holding a rational conversation. This can include (but is not limited to) laughing at someone's conclusions rather than offering an honest rebuttal, asking people what game they were watching, or another common problem is Poster X will say "that player isn't that bad" and then Poster Y will say something akin to "LOL you think that player is good". We're not going to tolerate those kinds of comments out of respect for the community at large and for the sake of trying to just have an honest conversation.
Now, does the above cover absolutely every single kind of distraction that is unwanted? Probably not, but you should by now have a good idea of the general types of things we will be discouraging. The above examples are meant to give you a good feel for / idea of what we're looking for. If something new or different than the above happens to come along and results in the same problem (that being, any other attitude or behavior that ultimately distracts from actually just discussing the topic at hand, or that is otherwise disrespectful to other posters), we can and we will take action to curb this as well, so please don't take this to mean that if you managed to technically avoid saying something exactly like one of the above examples that you are then somehow off the hook.
That all having been said, our goal is to do so in a generally kind and respectful way, and that doesn't mean the moment we see something we don't like that somebody is going to be suspended or banned, either. It just means that at the very least we will probably say something about it, quite possibly snipping out the distracting parts of the post in question while leaving alone the parts that are actually just discussing the topics, and in the event of a repeating or excessive problem, then we will start issuing infractions to try to further discourage further repeat problems, and if it just never seems to improve, then finally suspensions or bans will come into play. We would prefer it never went that far, and most of the time for most of our posters, it won't ever have to.
A slip up every once and a while is pretty normal, but, again, when it becomes repetitive or excessive, something will be done. Something occasional is probably going to be let go (within reason), but when it starts to become habitual or otherwise a pattern, odds are very good that we will step in.
There's always a small minority that like to push people's buttons and/or test their own boundaries with regards to the administrators, and in the case of someone acting like that, please be aware that this is not a court of law, but a private website run by people who are simply trying to do the right thing as they see it. If we feel that you are a special case that needs to be dealt with in an exceptional way because your behavior isn't explicitly mirroring one of our above examples of what we generally discourage, we can and we will take atypical action to prevent this from continuing if you are not cooperative with us.
Also please be aware that you will not be given a pass simply by claiming that you were 'only joking,' because quite honestly, when someone really is just joking, for one thing most people tend to pick up on the joke, including the person or group that is the target of the joke, and for another thing, in the event where an honest joke gets taken seriously and it upsets or angers someone, the person who is truly 'only joking' will quite commonly go out of his / her way to apologize and will try to mend fences. People who are dishonest about their statements being 'jokes' do not do so, and in turn that becomes a clear sign of what is really going on. It's nothing new.
In any case, quite frankly, the overall quality and health of the entire forum's community is more important than any one troublesome user will ever be, regardless of exactly how a problem is exhibiting itself, and if it comes down to us having to make a choice between you versus the greater health and happiness of the entire community, the community of this forum will win every time.
Lastly, there are also some posters, who are generally great contributors and do not otherwise cause any problems, who sometimes feel it's their place to provoke or to otherwise 'mess with' that small minority of people described in the last paragraph, and while we possibly might understand why you might feel you WANT to do something like that, the truth is we can't actually tolerate that kind of behavior from you any more than we can tolerate the behavior from them. So if we feel that you are trying to provoke those other posters into doing or saying something that will get themselves into trouble, then we will start to view you as a problem as well, because of the same reason as before: The overall health of the forum comes first, and trying to stir the pot with someone like that doesn't help, it just makes it worse. Some will simply disagree with this philosophy, but if so, then so be it because ultimately we have to do what we think is best so long as it's up to us.
If you see a problem that we haven't addressed, the best and most appropriate course for a forum member to take here is to look over to the left of the post in question. See underneath that poster's name, avatar, and other info, down where there's a little triangle with an exclamation point (!) in it? Click that. That allows you to report the post to the admins so we can definitely notice it and give it a look to see what we feel we should do about it. Beyond that, obviously it's human nature sometimes to want to speak up to the poster in question who has bothered you, but we would ask that you try to refrain from doing so because quite often what happens is two or more posters all start going back and forth about the original offending post, and suddenly the entire thread is off topic or otherwise derailed. So while the urge to police it yourself is understandable, it's best to just report it to us and let us handle it. Thank you!
All of the above is going to be subject to a case by case basis, but generally and broadly speaking, this should give everyone a pretty good idea of how things will typically / most often be handled.
Rule #2
If the actions of an administrator inspire you to make a comment, criticism, or express a concern about it, there is a wrong place and a couple of right places to do so.
The wrong place is to do so in the original thread in which the administrator took action. For example, if a post gets an infraction, or a post gets deleted, or a comment within a larger post gets clipped out, in a thread discussing Paul George, the wrong thing to do is to distract from the discussion of Paul George by adding your off topic thoughts on what the administrator did.
The right places to do so are:
A) Start a thread about the specific incident you want to talk about on the Feedback board. This way you are able to express yourself in an area that doesn't throw another thread off topic, and this way others can add their two cents as well if they wish, and additionally if there's something that needs to be said by the administrators, that is where they will respond to it.
B) Send a private message to the administrators, and they can respond to you that way.
If this is done the wrong way, those comments will be deleted, and if it's a repeating problem then it may also receive an infraction as well.
Rule #3
If a poster is bothering you, and an administrator has not or will not deal with that poster to the extent that you would prefer, you have a powerful tool at your disposal, one that has recently been upgraded and is now better than ever: The ability to ignore a user.
When you ignore a user, you will unfortunately still see some hints of their existence (nothing we can do about that), however, it does the following key things:
A) Any post they make will be completely invisible as you scroll through a thread.
B) The new addition to this feature: If someone QUOTES a user you are ignoring, you do not have to read who it was, or what that poster said, unless you go out of your way to click on a link to find out who it is and what they said.
To utilize this feature, from any page on Pacers Digest, scroll to the top of the page, look to the top right where it says 'Settings' and click that. From the settings page, look to the left side of the page where it says 'My Settings', and look down from there until you see 'Edit Ignore List' and click that. From here, it will say 'Add a Member to Your List...' Beneath that, click in the text box to the right of 'User Name', type in or copy & paste the username of the poster you are ignoring, and once their name is in the box, look over to the far right and click the 'Okay' button. All done!
Rule #4
Regarding infractions, currently they carry a value of one point each, and that point will expire in 31 days. If at any point a poster is carrying three points at the same time, that poster will be suspended until the oldest of the three points expires.
Rule #5
When you share or paste content or articles from another website, you must include the URL/link back to where you found it, who wrote it, and what website it's from. Said content will be removed if this doesn't happen.
An example:
If I copy and paste an article from the Indianapolis Star website, I would post something like this:
http://www.linktothearticlegoeshere.com/article
Title of the Article
Author's Name
Indianapolis Star
Rule #6
We cannot tolerate illegal videos on Pacers Digest. This means do not share any links to them, do not mention any websites that host them or link to them, do not describe how to find them in any way, and do not ask about them. Posts doing anything of the sort will be removed, the offenders will be contacted privately, and if the problem becomes habitual, you will be suspended, and if it still persists, you will probably be banned.
The legal means of watching or listening to NBA games are NBA League Pass Broadband (for US, or for International; both cost money) and NBA Audio League Pass (which is free). Look for them on NBA.com.
Rule #7
Provocative statements in a signature, or as an avatar, or as the 'tagline' beneath a poster's username (where it says 'Member' or 'Administrator' by default, if it is not altered) are an unwanted distraction that will more than likely be removed on sight. There can be shades of gray to this, but in general this could be something political or religious that is likely going to provoke or upset people, or otherwise something that is mean-spirited at the expense of a poster, a group of people, or a population.
It may or may not go without saying, but this goes for threads and posts as well, particularly when it's not made on the off-topic board (Market Square).
We do make exceptions if we feel the content is both innocuous and unlikely to cause social problems on the forum (such as wishing someone a Merry Christmas or a Happy Easter), and we also also make exceptions if such topics come up with regards to a sports figure (such as the Lance Stephenson situation bringing up discussions of domestic abuse and the law, or when Jason Collins came out as gay and how that lead to some discussion about gay rights).
However, once the discussion seems to be more/mostly about the political issues instead of the sports figure or his specific situation, the thread is usually closed.
Rule #8
We prefer self-restraint and/or modesty when making jokes or off topic comments in a sports discussion thread. They can be fun, but sometimes they derail or distract from a topic, and we don't want to see that happen. If we feel it is a problem, we will either delete or move those posts from the thread.
Rule #9
Generally speaking, we try to be a "PG-13" rated board, and we don't want to see sexual content or similarly suggestive content. Vulgarity is a more muddled issue, though again we prefer things to lean more towards "PG-13" than "R". If we feel things have gone too far, we will step in.
Rule #10
We like small signatures, not big signatures. The bigger the signature, the more likely it is an annoying or distracting signature.
Rule #11
Do not advertise anything without talking about it with the administrators first. This includes advertising with your signature, with your avatar, through private messaging, and/or by making a thread or post.
Whether your are a long standing forum member or whether you have just registered today, it's a good idea to read and review the rules below so that you have a very good idea of what to expect when you come to Pacers Digest.
A quick note to new members: Your posts will not immediately show up when you make them. An administrator has to approve at least your first post before the forum software will later upgrade your account to the status of a fully-registered member. This usually happens within a couple of hours or so after your post(s) is/are approved, so you may need to be a little patient at first.
Why do we do this? So that it's more difficult for spammers (be they human or robot) to post, and so users who are banned cannot immediately re-register and start dousing people with verbal flames.
Below are the rules of Pacers Digest. After you have read them, you will have a very good sense of where we are coming from, what we expect, what we don't want to see, and how we react to things.
Rule #1
Pacers Digest is intended to be a place to discuss basketball without having to deal with the kinds of behaviors or attitudes that distract people from sticking with the discussion of the topics at hand. These unwanted distractions can come in many forms, and admittedly it can sometimes be tricky to pin down each and every kind that can rear its ugly head, but we feel that the following examples and explanations cover at least a good portion of that ground and should at least give people a pretty good idea of the kinds of things we actively discourage:
"Anyone who __________ is a liar / a fool / an idiot / a blind homer / has their head buried in the sand / a blind hater / doesn't know basketball / doesn't watch the games"
"People with intelligence will agree with me when I say that __________"
"Only stupid people think / believe / do ___________"
"I can't wait to hear something from PosterX when he/she sees that **insert a given incident or current event that will have probably upset or disappointed PosterX here**"
"He/she is just delusional"
"This thread is stupid / worthless / embarrassing"
"I'm going to take a moment to point and
/ laugh at PosterX / GroupOfPeopleY who thought / believed *insert though/belief here*""Remember when PosterX said OldCommentY that no longer looks good?
"In general, if a comment goes from purely on topic to something 'ad hominem' (personal jabs, personal shots, attacks, flames, however you want to call it, towards a person, or a group of people, or a given city/state/country of people), those are most likely going to be found intolerable.
We also dissuade passive aggressive behavior. This can be various things, but common examples include statements that are basically meant to imply someone is either stupid or otherwise incapable of holding a rational conversation. This can include (but is not limited to) laughing at someone's conclusions rather than offering an honest rebuttal, asking people what game they were watching, or another common problem is Poster X will say "that player isn't that bad" and then Poster Y will say something akin to "LOL you think that player is good". We're not going to tolerate those kinds of comments out of respect for the community at large and for the sake of trying to just have an honest conversation.
Now, does the above cover absolutely every single kind of distraction that is unwanted? Probably not, but you should by now have a good idea of the general types of things we will be discouraging. The above examples are meant to give you a good feel for / idea of what we're looking for. If something new or different than the above happens to come along and results in the same problem (that being, any other attitude or behavior that ultimately distracts from actually just discussing the topic at hand, or that is otherwise disrespectful to other posters), we can and we will take action to curb this as well, so please don't take this to mean that if you managed to technically avoid saying something exactly like one of the above examples that you are then somehow off the hook.
That all having been said, our goal is to do so in a generally kind and respectful way, and that doesn't mean the moment we see something we don't like that somebody is going to be suspended or banned, either. It just means that at the very least we will probably say something about it, quite possibly snipping out the distracting parts of the post in question while leaving alone the parts that are actually just discussing the topics, and in the event of a repeating or excessive problem, then we will start issuing infractions to try to further discourage further repeat problems, and if it just never seems to improve, then finally suspensions or bans will come into play. We would prefer it never went that far, and most of the time for most of our posters, it won't ever have to.
A slip up every once and a while is pretty normal, but, again, when it becomes repetitive or excessive, something will be done. Something occasional is probably going to be let go (within reason), but when it starts to become habitual or otherwise a pattern, odds are very good that we will step in.
There's always a small minority that like to push people's buttons and/or test their own boundaries with regards to the administrators, and in the case of someone acting like that, please be aware that this is not a court of law, but a private website run by people who are simply trying to do the right thing as they see it. If we feel that you are a special case that needs to be dealt with in an exceptional way because your behavior isn't explicitly mirroring one of our above examples of what we generally discourage, we can and we will take atypical action to prevent this from continuing if you are not cooperative with us.
Also please be aware that you will not be given a pass simply by claiming that you were 'only joking,' because quite honestly, when someone really is just joking, for one thing most people tend to pick up on the joke, including the person or group that is the target of the joke, and for another thing, in the event where an honest joke gets taken seriously and it upsets or angers someone, the person who is truly 'only joking' will quite commonly go out of his / her way to apologize and will try to mend fences. People who are dishonest about their statements being 'jokes' do not do so, and in turn that becomes a clear sign of what is really going on. It's nothing new.
In any case, quite frankly, the overall quality and health of the entire forum's community is more important than any one troublesome user will ever be, regardless of exactly how a problem is exhibiting itself, and if it comes down to us having to make a choice between you versus the greater health and happiness of the entire community, the community of this forum will win every time.
Lastly, there are also some posters, who are generally great contributors and do not otherwise cause any problems, who sometimes feel it's their place to provoke or to otherwise 'mess with' that small minority of people described in the last paragraph, and while we possibly might understand why you might feel you WANT to do something like that, the truth is we can't actually tolerate that kind of behavior from you any more than we can tolerate the behavior from them. So if we feel that you are trying to provoke those other posters into doing or saying something that will get themselves into trouble, then we will start to view you as a problem as well, because of the same reason as before: The overall health of the forum comes first, and trying to stir the pot with someone like that doesn't help, it just makes it worse. Some will simply disagree with this philosophy, but if so, then so be it because ultimately we have to do what we think is best so long as it's up to us.
If you see a problem that we haven't addressed, the best and most appropriate course for a forum member to take here is to look over to the left of the post in question. See underneath that poster's name, avatar, and other info, down where there's a little triangle with an exclamation point (!) in it? Click that. That allows you to report the post to the admins so we can definitely notice it and give it a look to see what we feel we should do about it. Beyond that, obviously it's human nature sometimes to want to speak up to the poster in question who has bothered you, but we would ask that you try to refrain from doing so because quite often what happens is two or more posters all start going back and forth about the original offending post, and suddenly the entire thread is off topic or otherwise derailed. So while the urge to police it yourself is understandable, it's best to just report it to us and let us handle it. Thank you!
All of the above is going to be subject to a case by case basis, but generally and broadly speaking, this should give everyone a pretty good idea of how things will typically / most often be handled.
Rule #2
If the actions of an administrator inspire you to make a comment, criticism, or express a concern about it, there is a wrong place and a couple of right places to do so.
The wrong place is to do so in the original thread in which the administrator took action. For example, if a post gets an infraction, or a post gets deleted, or a comment within a larger post gets clipped out, in a thread discussing Paul George, the wrong thing to do is to distract from the discussion of Paul George by adding your off topic thoughts on what the administrator did.
The right places to do so are:
A) Start a thread about the specific incident you want to talk about on the Feedback board. This way you are able to express yourself in an area that doesn't throw another thread off topic, and this way others can add their two cents as well if they wish, and additionally if there's something that needs to be said by the administrators, that is where they will respond to it.
B) Send a private message to the administrators, and they can respond to you that way.
If this is done the wrong way, those comments will be deleted, and if it's a repeating problem then it may also receive an infraction as well.
Rule #3
If a poster is bothering you, and an administrator has not or will not deal with that poster to the extent that you would prefer, you have a powerful tool at your disposal, one that has recently been upgraded and is now better than ever: The ability to ignore a user.
When you ignore a user, you will unfortunately still see some hints of their existence (nothing we can do about that), however, it does the following key things:
A) Any post they make will be completely invisible as you scroll through a thread.
B) The new addition to this feature: If someone QUOTES a user you are ignoring, you do not have to read who it was, or what that poster said, unless you go out of your way to click on a link to find out who it is and what they said.
To utilize this feature, from any page on Pacers Digest, scroll to the top of the page, look to the top right where it says 'Settings' and click that. From the settings page, look to the left side of the page where it says 'My Settings', and look down from there until you see 'Edit Ignore List' and click that. From here, it will say 'Add a Member to Your List...' Beneath that, click in the text box to the right of 'User Name', type in or copy & paste the username of the poster you are ignoring, and once their name is in the box, look over to the far right and click the 'Okay' button. All done!
Rule #4
Regarding infractions, currently they carry a value of one point each, and that point will expire in 31 days. If at any point a poster is carrying three points at the same time, that poster will be suspended until the oldest of the three points expires.
Rule #5
When you share or paste content or articles from another website, you must include the URL/link back to where you found it, who wrote it, and what website it's from. Said content will be removed if this doesn't happen.
An example:
If I copy and paste an article from the Indianapolis Star website, I would post something like this:
http://www.linktothearticlegoeshere.com/article
Title of the Article
Author's Name
Indianapolis Star
Rule #6
We cannot tolerate illegal videos on Pacers Digest. This means do not share any links to them, do not mention any websites that host them or link to them, do not describe how to find them in any way, and do not ask about them. Posts doing anything of the sort will be removed, the offenders will be contacted privately, and if the problem becomes habitual, you will be suspended, and if it still persists, you will probably be banned.
The legal means of watching or listening to NBA games are NBA League Pass Broadband (for US, or for International; both cost money) and NBA Audio League Pass (which is free). Look for them on NBA.com.
Rule #7
Provocative statements in a signature, or as an avatar, or as the 'tagline' beneath a poster's username (where it says 'Member' or 'Administrator' by default, if it is not altered) are an unwanted distraction that will more than likely be removed on sight. There can be shades of gray to this, but in general this could be something political or religious that is likely going to provoke or upset people, or otherwise something that is mean-spirited at the expense of a poster, a group of people, or a population.
It may or may not go without saying, but this goes for threads and posts as well, particularly when it's not made on the off-topic board (Market Square).
We do make exceptions if we feel the content is both innocuous and unlikely to cause social problems on the forum (such as wishing someone a Merry Christmas or a Happy Easter), and we also also make exceptions if such topics come up with regards to a sports figure (such as the Lance Stephenson situation bringing up discussions of domestic abuse and the law, or when Jason Collins came out as gay and how that lead to some discussion about gay rights).
However, once the discussion seems to be more/mostly about the political issues instead of the sports figure or his specific situation, the thread is usually closed.
Rule #8
We prefer self-restraint and/or modesty when making jokes or off topic comments in a sports discussion thread. They can be fun, but sometimes they derail or distract from a topic, and we don't want to see that happen. If we feel it is a problem, we will either delete or move those posts from the thread.
Rule #9
Generally speaking, we try to be a "PG-13" rated board, and we don't want to see sexual content or similarly suggestive content. Vulgarity is a more muddled issue, though again we prefer things to lean more towards "PG-13" than "R". If we feel things have gone too far, we will step in.
Rule #10
We like small signatures, not big signatures. The bigger the signature, the more likely it is an annoying or distracting signature.
Rule #11
Do not advertise anything without talking about it with the administrators first. This includes advertising with your signature, with your avatar, through private messaging, and/or by making a thread or post.
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@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!
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Orlando, Toronto and Boston won what a great day for the tank
@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!Comment
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P?eltl is huge for our high draft pick chances as he makes Toronto so much better.Comment
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OG is back tooOriginally posted by festar35 View Post@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!Comment
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I don't put much stock in that. They were doing well without him as it cleaned up their lineup.Originally posted by vnzla81 View PostComment
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https://theathletic.com/4243267/2023...draft-lottery/
Hollinger: Why Victor Wembanyama race might not be widespread down the stretch
Feb 23, 2023
136
That alarm bell you just heard? It’s tank o’clock in the NBA.
The trade deadline has passed, the All-Star break is over and now it’s time for the league’s bottom feeders to get down to the dirty business of acting in the enterprise’s best long-term interests. With two franchise-caliber talents available at the top of the draft in French center Victor Wembanyama and G League Ignite guard Scoot Henderson, the temptation will be strong for teams to give themselves the best possible odds at May’s lottery.
However, the actual mechanism for how that works is a little trickier. In fact, that alarm bell you heard may not be for tank o’clock at all, but instead for an early-morning advanced economics course. Hey, don’t hit snooze on me yet. The lottery-tanking equation has huge elements of Game Theory, and that’s what can make it tricky to figure out what incentives will pull most strongly on these teams.
Let’s back up, first, before we get knee-deep in von Neumann. The whole point of tanking, of course, is to maximize a team’s odds of getting a high draft pick. Relative to five years ago, the league has done tremendous work to reduce — though not eliminate — the incentives for teams to go down this road. (I will also remind you, once again, that tanking is almost entirely a management-driven tactic; once the ball goes up, these players and coaches want to win.)
The odds of the team with the league’s worst record getting the top pick and, presumably, Wembanyama, are only 14 percent, not the 25 percent of half a decade ago. Meanwhile, the opportunity cost of tanking has also increased because of the Play-In, which could potentially result in ninth or 10th place teams making the postseason.
For instance, 25 of the league’s 30 teams are within 2 1/2 games of the 10th spot in their conference as of Thursday morning. Moreover, the current compressed standings mean those same 25 teams are all within 3 1/2 games of the eighth spot — the one that offers two cracks at a playoff berth. Punting on the season from that position is a tough sell, internally and externally.
On the other hand … the league is patting itself on the back for how competitive things have been thus far in 2022-23, but now is when the Brick for Vic momentum gets real. History tells us the stretch after the All-Star break is when the true tank commanders earn their stars.
GO DEEPER
The Unicorn Era: Victor Wembanyama heads a coming stampede of skilled big men
I can tell you this from the inside too. Our team in Memphis was part of the league’s last great tankathon, when a stacked 2018 draft promised riches to any team that could get into the top five. Four players from that lottery have already made an All-Star team (Luka Dončić, Jaren Jackson Jr., Trae Young and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander), while two others (Deandre Ayton and Michael Porter Jr.) have already signed max contracts. A seventh (Mikal Bridges) was a starter on an NBA Finals team and had rivals competing to see how many first-round picks they could throw at Brooklyn for his services at the trade deadline.
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And let’s just say that 2018 race to the bottom was a doozy. With a 25 percent chance of the top pick for the league’s worst record, and only three spots drawn randomly, the reverse turbo-thrusters kicked in sharply for every team out of the playoff race. The other important part of this was the Game Theory aspect, though: The fact that the other teams were tanking forced everyone else to redouble their efforts. Tanking begets tanking.
Check out the reverse standings after the All-Star break from that season:
Bottom feeders post All-Star break, 2018* – (takes bow)Phoenix 3 20 Memphis* 4 22 Atlanta 6 17 New York 6 17 Dallas 6 18 Sacramento 7 16 Orlando 7 18 Chicago 7 18 Brooklyn 9 14
Still, it’s not hard to guess which team didn’t have its own pick, right? The Nets went a quasi-respectable 9-14 after the break, but the other eight teams were a ghastly 46-146 (.240). Even that level of “quality” owes much to tanker vs. tanker matchups (such as the Grizzlies’ riveting April thriller against Sacramento) where by definition one team had to win.
I should point out a lot of these teams had other motivations beyond pure tanking, including our own. Late in a lost season, there is really no point in sending out veterans with money due in future seasons; that would be the case even if the draft didn’t exist. Some players get shut down with nagging injuries that they might play through in a playoff chase. Finally, several of these teams also traded key players on expiring deals at the trade deadline or bought them out shortly afterward. (We bid adieu to James Ennis for a second-round pick and Brandan Wright in a buyout, for instance.)
Largely as a response to what was seen as a particularly brazen tankfest, the NBA shifted the rules after 2018. Now the top four spots are drawn randomly, the worst three records all have the same odds and the best odds a team can get are a 14 percent chance of the worst pick. Additionally, the Play-In has made it more palatable for a mediocre team to keep fighting, because the endgame is to finish at least 10th rather than shoot for eighth.
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This almost surely improved things. Game Theory would tell us that in this new system, once a team has secured a bottom-three record, its work is effectively done. Yes, there is some marginal utility in finishing worse than a rival in case both teams lose out on a top-four spot in the lottery, but the reality is that a bottom-three team has virtually no chance of picking worse than sixth and can’t do much to change its odds within that top-six range.
In a related story, here’s how the three worst teams fared after the break last season:
"Bottom three" post-break, 2022Progress! Those three teams seemingly had a lock on the bottom three spots well ahead of April and thus felt more or less free to chase some wins. For teams that were the league’s three worst entering the break, a 24-46 stretch is a hell of a run. Almost a veritable hot streak, actually.Houston 5 19 Detroit 10 14 Orlando 9 13
On the other hand, the real race was happening right behind them:
"Bottom four to bottom six" post-break, 2022Four of the 13 wins by these three teams came when they played each other, including a hilarious April game between Portland and Oklahoma City in which the coaches spent the fourth quarter in a game of “No, please, you take it.” Against everyone else, these three clubs went 9-52, shutting down most of their key players and sending out some truly embarrassing lineups.Indiana 5 17 Portland 2 21 Oklahoma City 6 18
Overall, the bottom six teams went 37-102 after the break (.266) — hardly different from 2018. The tanking just happened in a different place on the standings board than you might have expected.
You can see why. Those three teams turbo-thrusting backward in the standings more or less doubled their lottery odds; they go from 6 percent for the eighth-worst record to 12.5 percent for the fourth-worst.
Even beyond lucking into a golden ping-pong ball for the top overall pick, the odds of landing second through fourth also increase fairly dramatically in these spots. For instance, once Orlando and Oklahoma City were off the board with the top two picks at the 2022 lottery, Indiana had a 14.3 percent of picking third and a 16.5 percent chance of picking fourth.
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Additionally, locking in a bottom-six record left those teams fairly secure they would pick no worse than eighth and likely no worse than seventh; on average, only one team in the seventh through 14th slots in the reverse standings will get picked into the top four. (Last season, for instance, seventh-worst Sacramento moved up to fourth.)
Game Theory, of course, also notes that the optimal strategy will change based on the decisions made by rivals. Indiana likely realized it needed to step up its tanking once it noted that a “threat” from Portland to pass it was becoming increasingly real. Tanking tends to beget more tanking.
The only other full NBA season under the current lottery odds was 2018-19, and it was an odd one because it’s the only full season with the newly revised odds but no Play-In Tournament. Still, the 2018-19 season tells a positive story that might offer some hope for this spring.
"Bottom five" post-break, 2019The bottom four teams combined to post a relatively respectable 29-66 mark after the break, while the fifth-worst team, Atlanta, was so locked into that spot that it could glide in at 10-14.New York 6 18 Cleveland 7 17 Phoenix 8 15 Chicago 8 16 Atlanta 10 14
Between them, the five-worst teams won nearly a third of their games (.328) in that stretch, despite a much-hyped lottery featuring Duke’s Zion Williamson. As a whole, these teams were actually better after the break than before it.
Again, Game Theory explains a lot here. The fourth-worst Bulls (22-60) were plenty bad but would have had to reach a whole other level to catch the Cavs, Suns and Knicks, each of whom failed to win 20 games. Those three teams, however, had zero incentive to outdo one another once they had secured enough Ls to guarantee a bottom-three position.
This takes us to this season. Could this be another anti-tank draft? Or will other forces compel teams to pull the rip cord and make a speedy descent?
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The argument for this season being another 2019 are pretty powerful. The Play-In incentivizes at least 22 or so of the league’s 30 teams to keep trying. (We’ll get to a few who might be on the fence in a minute.) Additionally, the lottery odds being capped at 14 percent for the league’s worst teams means there is little incentive to keep racking up Ls beyond a certain level of badness.
Finally, this isn’t 2018. The depth of the draft is a secondary consideration, but to the extent it matters, the consolation prizes for tanking this year seem pretty limited. Conversations with scouts on the road have indicated a profound lack of enthusiasm for basically any player outside the top two in this year’s draft. I’m not even sure the vibes I’m getting could be called lukewarm; I’ll optimistically call them lukecold.
Compared to that 2018 draft, in which even teams picking in the mid-lottery could feel like they were getting a potential All-Star, this draft doesn’t have the same depth to support the Plan B of a tanking strategy: That even if the lottery doesn’t go your way, you get a big advantage by picking, say, fifth instead of ninth. Maybe opinions will change between now and June, but that’s how things seem right now.
On the other hand…
That’s Houston Rockets owner Tilman Fertitta owning up to the fact that they’re praying to win the Wembanyama sweepstakes. Yes, that’s a pretty sweet prize at the top, and this year we have four bad teams (Charlotte, Detroit, San Antonio and Houston) instead of three. That’s important because only three of them will get the best lottery odds.
Again, it all gets back to Game Theory and the change in lottery odds at the bottom of the standings: If four teams intend to tank, we have a disaster. If only three teams intend to tank, then we have a non-event.
Houston, as shown above, has some pretty clear motive as well as the league’s worst record coming out of the break, while the Spurs have shown their resolve with a 14-game losing streak and a deadline trade of their best player (Jakob Poeltl). The Pistons, meanwhile, still can go to the nuclear option of shutting down Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks.
This leaves Charlotte as the real fulcrum of any tanking race this season. Already sitting at 17 wins, the Hornets probably can’t afford to win more than four times the rest of the season to, um, “keep pace” with their rivals. If they’re not willing to prostrate themselves before the lottery gods to earn an extra 1.5 percent probability, then any brazen tanking in the bottom four positions in the standings is likely to be minor.
On the other hand, if the Hornets go chips-in on this and shut down LaMelo Ball, Gordon Hayward and Terry Rozier, look out below. A four-team tanking race could get ugly fast. I don’t see this as likely, but it can’t be dismissed. What seems more likely is that the Hornets are the 2019 Bulls.
Meanwhile, the real tanking issue is likely to be where it was last season, in the fifth, sixth and seventh spots in the reverse standings. Fortunately, several of the teams that might otherwise pivot to tanking have at least some incentive not to. Let’s take a look:
Orlando (24-35): Locked into the fifth-best odds at the moment, the Magic are also enjoying the first stretch of sustained decent basketball since they nuked the roster in 2021 and might be reluctant to pull the plug. Also, as I wrote earlier this week, essentially the whole team is under 25 and could use the development reps.
I could see Orlando operating strategically in the final week or two of the season, perhaps, but it’s hard to see anything too crazy happening before then. That’s especially true once you see the scenarios of the other teams. Game Theory tells you the Magic don’t need to think too hard about tanking unless multiple other teams are also doing it, and I don’t really see that happening.
Indiana (26-34): Among the most brazen tankers a year ago, would the Pacers really give us an encore performance just to go from sixth-worst to fifth-worst, when Orlando might catch them anyway? With Myles Turner’s extension secure, I wouldn’t be shocked to see his minutes limited in March and April. Otherwise, as with Orlando, I wouldn’t expect Indiana to crater unless it really needed a result in April … especially since the next two teams in the standings aren’t incentivized to catch the Pacers.
Chicago (26-33): The Bulls’ incentives are severely constrained by a top-four protected first-round pick they owe to the Magic from the 2020 Nikola Vučević trade. (Side note: Yikes!) Just two games out of 10th with a nearly neutral net rating, their best bet is likely to keep trying to fight the good fight. Until or unless they’re mathematically eliminated, any Bulls tanking almost certainly helps the Magic more than it helps Chicago.
Lakers (27-32): Much like Brooklyn in 2018, the Lakers have zero tanking incentive due to an unprotected pick swap with New Orleans from the Anthony Davis trade. Any move backward in the standings helps the Pelicans, not the Lakers, who also loaded up at the trade deadline to try to make a playoff push. It may or may not work, but this team is not a threat to usurp top-six lottery odds.
Portland (28-30): The Blazers tanked with wild abandon in 2021-22, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat with a veteran roster that was built with a playoff push in mind and, unlike a year ago, is almost completely healthy. As with Chicago, Portland could opt to shut everybody down if and when it is mathematically eliminated, but that likely wouldn’t happen until the final week of the season.
Utah (29-31): This is the team to watch as far as pulling the rip cord on a standings slide after midseason trades removed Mike Conley, Malik Beasley and Jarred Vanderbilt from the mix. However, how far could they really go? The Jazz have already banked 29 wins and have three games left against the Spurs. They were also able to win road games in Toronto and Indiana even after the trade deadline.
It would be an awful look for the Jazz to capitulate right now, just half a game from the 10th position, but that stance might change if their three games in the next 10 days against Oklahoma City(!) don’t go well. Positioning themselves behind the Lakers, Bulls and Blazers in the standings would give their odds a nice jolt and likely wouldn’t even require that brazen a tanking effort. However, catching the Pacers and Magic to reverse-thrust into the bottom six seems unlikely.
Oklahoma City (28-29): Noted as a potential preseason tanker after losing rookie Chet Holmgren for the season, the Thunder would make the Play-In if their season ended today. As with Utah, they’ve likely banked too many wins and have too much quality to mount a true tanking effort; such a move might also cost Shai Gilgeous-Alexander All-NBA consideration and generate some bad feelings. The Thunder would have to hit an immediate, severe tailspin to make this scenario remotely plausible.
That’s every realistic and quasi-realistic tanker; teams like Washington, Toronto, Atlanta, Minnesota and (gasp) Golden State aren’t bailing on the season. Overall, then, it sure looks like the circumstances of this season are going to allow the NBA to dodge a bullet on tanking. All the fans are yelling, “Tank for Wembanyama!” But the reality of the situation is not that many teams would really benefit from it right now, and the lack of “competition” on this front disincentivized everybody else.
At the very bottom, the worst teams are established enough in the standings that they don’t really need to make any outsized effort to maintain their position. Just behind them, the teams that otherwise might have the greatest incentive to dive-bomb are disincentivized by either draft pick trades (Chicago and the Lakers) or their own accidental success (Utah and Oklahoma City).
The lack of tanking from the Lakers and Bulls, in particular, has knock-on effects, as it likely stops teams like Orlando and Indiana from needing to match their efforts.
Again, the league deserves some credit for this. Changing the structure of the lottery so that the three worst teams have the same odds was a genius stroke that has mostly removed some of the most absurdist tanking schemes from the spring playbook. Game Theory, however, tells us that the structure of the standings and teams’ draft pick obligations have an outsized impact in any given season. The standings shook out in a way that was very league-friendly this year, but in future years, the table coming out of the All-Star break might not be so kind.
(Photo of Victor Wembanyama and Scoot Henderson: Ethan Miller / Getty Images)
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John Hollinger ’s two decades of NBA experience include seven seasons as the Memphis Grizzlies’ Vice President of Basketball Operations and media stints at ESPN.com and SI.com. A pioneer in basketball analytics, he invented several advanced metrics — most notably, the PER standard. He also authored four editions of “Pro Basketball Forecast.” In 2018 he was honored with the Lifetime Achievement Award at the Sloan Sports Analytics Conference. Follow John on Twitter @johnhollinger
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Brogon torched us AND helped the tank. Dal9's worst nightmareOriginally posted by vnzla81 View PostOrlando, Toronto and Boston won what a great day for the tank
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Rooting for Washington, Chicago, Atlanta and Miami tonight, them winning tonight could be amazing for the tank
@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!Comment
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Hawks and Bulls care now and that is good for the tank.@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!Comment
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I ran the tankthon simulator today and Pacers jumped to #1 on the first try. Didn't run anymore after thatComment
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Houston already in tank mode? KPJ and Green are both sitting.Comment
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I don't think we need to worry about Charlotte anymore after tonight's win. If we were smart, we'd do everything possible to throw the two remaining Pistons games.
...check that. We actually have 3 remaining games against the Pistons. We can really help or hurt ourselves depending on what we do in those games.Last edited by CJ Jones; 02-25-2023, 01:49 AM.Comment
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All I hope for tonight is for Orlando to step up and the Pacers to come back down to reality on the 3. The # 5 pick position awaits us.Why do teams tank? Ask a Spurs fan.Comment
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Rooting for Toronto right now and Miami, Orlando, NY later
@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!Comment
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And Toronto won
@WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!Comment
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