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Troy Murphy is worthless

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  • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

    Originally posted by count55 View Post
    I pretty much agree with this. He's a placeholder who's giving us some decent production.

    My take on Troy is that he may not give us what we need (or want), but he does give us pretty much everything that he can. I'll cheer for him, and take what I can get. At this point, if someone is expecting him to be something different, then that's pretty much their problem, not Troy's.
    And what do we need as a team? What do we want as a team? Take what I can get. Name a player that you think could fill his role on this team. You act like he is some scrub walk on.

    Comment


    • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

      This is going to be my first and only post in this thread.


      It is going straight to the "ignored thread" list before I say something
      derogatory about whoever started it.

      Comment


      • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

        Originally posted by intridcold View Post
        Reggie Evans was a great rebounder when he was on the market. He makes less than troy.
        all reggie evans does well is grab balls. with troy it isn't JUST the rebounds - it's the fact that he is a rebounder AND a shooting PF. the NBA pays for shooters and pays extra if you can do something else even semi-valuable besides shoot. i don't think he'd get the same deal (definitely fewer years) but i think some team probably convince themselves to pay him money in the dunleavy ballpark.
        This is the darkest timeline.

        Comment


        • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

          Originally posted by Country Boy View Post
          And what do we need as a team? What do we want as a team? Take what I can get. Name a player that you think could fill his role on this team. You act like he is some scrub walk on.
          No, I don't. I act like he is a solid player with some very real limitations and a prohibitive contract. I'm pleased to get his contribution, but this team, in order to make a significant step towards contention, needs improved interior defense and post offense. Troy provides neither of those things, but he does contribute in other ways. That's what I'll take.

          No one with an IQ above room temperature is going to be satisfied with a perimeter-oriented power forward who, on his best days, is a below average defender and is pulling down $11mm.

          That being said, I've been on record as that Troy is overpaid, but underrated. I was basically agreeing that he's a legit NBA player, and better than a lot of the options that are out there.

          Comment


          • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

            Originally posted by count55 View Post
            No, he couldn't. There's not really any way to prove it one way or the other, but I would take that bet with a very high level of confidence.
            I hinted on another thread that I've developed an analytical process that objectively projects players' "worth" in NBA-salary terms according to their compiled statistics -- NOT according to my opinions. (Sorry, Anthem, I don't have a link.) With the notable exception of Andrew Bynum, who we knew would be overpaid due to his p-o-t-e-n-t-i-a-l, the system has done quite well at predicting salaries that FAs signed over the summer. BTW, special kudos to you, Count; your opinions on what various players (e.g., Jarrett Jack) may be able to sign for have been right on the mark, according to my analysis.

            So while I certainly cannot offer "proof," I will run a valuation around Christmas and report Mr. Murphy's (and a few others') data-driven should-be salary. (My best guess at the moment is that he still is being overpaid, but "only" by about $1-2 million.... Did I just say "only"?!)


            "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

            - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

            Comment


            • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

              Originally posted by DrFife View Post
              I hinted on another thread that I've developed an analytical process that objectively projects players' "worth" in NBA-salary terms according to their compiled statistics -- NOT according to my opinions.
              Notice that I'm not disputing your model here, but allow me to point out that any model you develop is intrinsically your own opinions. They may be correct opinions, but it's always your opinions. I worked for 4 years of my life on model bias; trust me on this. Your opinions shape the analysis at every level.
              This space for rent.

              Comment


              • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                Originally posted by intridcold View Post
                Reggie Evans was a great rebounder when he was on the market. He makes less than troy.
                Reggie Evans (5M) is without doubt one of the worst shooters in this league.(31% and plays inside) Only Big Ben is worse. Murphy puts points on the board. Reggie does not play near the minutes Troy does. 10M for what Troy gives us is more than fair. Look at who he is ahead in rebounding on NBA dot com. He's shooting 40% from 3 which makes him a threat.
                Last edited by aceace; 12-03-2008, 01:50 PM.
                "He wanted to get to that money time. Time when the hardware was on the table. That's when Roger was going to show up. So all we needed to do was stay close"
                Darnell Hillman (Speaking of former teammate Roger Brown)

                Comment


                • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                  Originally posted by DrFife View Post
                  I hinted on another thread that I've developed an analytical process that objectively projects players' "worth" in NBA-salary terms according to their compiled statistics -- NOT according to my opinions. (Sorry, Anthem, I don't have a link.) With the notable exception of Andrew Bynum, who we knew would be overpaid due to his p-o-t-e-n-t-i-a-l, the system has done quite well at predicting salaries that FAs signed over the summer. BTW, special kudos to you, Count; your opinions on what various players (e.g., Jarrett Jack) may be able to sign for have been right on the mark, according to my analysis.

                  So while I certainly cannot offer "proof," I will run a valuation around Christmas and report Mr. Murphy's (and a few others') data-driven should-be salary. (My best guess at the moment is that he still is being overpaid, but "only" by about $1-2 million.... Did I just say "only"?!)
                  The problem is that there are significant intervening factors. The primary one is the salary cap and its implications. The pool of teams that have the available cap space to offer what Murphy's statistical valuation might be is limited. The second would be teams actually looking for somebody with Troy's skill set and experience. These two things basically mean that it's not an open market.

                  The other major factor is the perceived value proposition. This is where Troy has some major strikes against him. While he's not old, per se, he's also not young. He is pretty much a finished product, and many teams will be more interested in players (at that price) think will continue to develop. Finally, and most damaging, he is largely considered to have not earned out his last contract. Whether this is statistically the case or not, the perception will weigh heavy. Under this current contract, Troy's scoring average has been 21% below his "contract year", and his rebounding average has been over 25% below his "contract year". (BTW...this entire discussion pretends that he goes on the market today.)

                  All that being said, it is a distinct possibility, if not a likelihood, that Troy, playing as he is now, could end up being more valuable and productive than (at least some of) the people who end up commanding that kind of money next year, but that's more a function of the errors being made in assigning value than it is vindication that Troy's worth it. (Of course, now you get into market, and does that prove value, or is value just truly a perceived thing, etc., which is a pretty big rabbit hole.)

                  On the whole, I guess I'd just say that, even if it were statistically proven that Troy is within spitting distance of earning his contract, I would still be extremely confident that he would not be able to get that contract on the "open" market today.

                  Comment


                  • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                    Originally posted by Anthem View Post
                    Notice that I'm not disputing your model here, but allow me to point out that any model you develop is intrinsically your own opinions. They may be correct opinions, but it's always your opinions. I worked for 4 years of my life on model bias; trust me on this. Your opinions shape the analysis at every level.
                    By "opinions" I meant that I did not deviate from a model based on aggregate (league) data to show favoritism for individual players.

                    Four years? Don't stop now; you're just getting to the good stuff.


                    "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

                    - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

                    Comment


                    • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                      Originally posted by count55 View Post

                      On the whole, I guess I'd just say that, even if it were statistically proven that Troy is within spitting distance of earning his contract, I would still be extremely confident that he would not be able to get that contract on the "open" market today.
                      Agreed, and with the financial crisis, future FAs may see salary offers dropping faster than gasoline prices*. Still, the accuracy in our predictions demonstrates that stats serve as a reference point in negotiations.

                      * (I didn't say "stock prices." That hurts too much.)
                      Last edited by DrFife; 12-03-2008, 03:25 PM. Reason: humor


                      "He’s no shrinking violet when it comes to that kind of stuff."

                      - Rick Carlisle on how Kevin Pritchard responds to needed roster changes.

                      Comment


                      • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                        Originally posted by count55 View Post
                        No, I don't. I act like he is a solid player with some very real limitations and a prohibitive contract. I'm pleased to get his contribution, but this team, in order to make a significant step towards contention, needs improved interior defense and post offense. Troy provides neither of those things, but he does contribute in other ways. That's what I'll take.

                        No one with an IQ above room temperature is going to be satisfied with a perimeter-oriented power forward who, on his best days, is a below average defender and is pulling down $11mm.

                        That being said, I've been on record as that Troy is overpaid, but underrated. I was basically agreeing that he's a legit NBA player, and better than a lot of the options that are out there.
                        Ditto.

                        From me Troy gets blasted when deserved and praised when deserved. This thread wasn't started when Troy was grabbing tons of tough boards and knocking down shots.

                        I'm so sick of this outrage over stuff placed totally out of context. Right now we all love Troy's game, at least the sane posters that is. In the recent game threads I and others have praised his improved play. Frankly his tip-in was a tiny blip on the radar of what he has been doing well THIS YEAR.

                        If Troy played this way in GS that final year, or if Dun was playing at his last season level, then GS NEVER WOULD HAVE TRADED THEM. Not only that, but if either of them had played this well in Indy post trade, rather than the horrible 3pt shooting Dun brought with him and the blah rebounding Troy showed, that team wouldn't have missed the playoffs.


                        And on top of all this, Troy is still overpaid even as he has been recently. Think about it, $11m for a guy that can't create his own shot or post up or make a big one on one defensive play against solid offensive post players (not just all stars).


                        TROY IS A GOOD GUY. Hell, I've never stopped saying that. I like him, I think Dun seems pretty nice, and I think both of them earned a lot of the criticism that was following THEIR GAME. Again that's their game and not them.



                        PS - no Quis driving and drawing the inside defense, no rebound tip-in for Troy, period. Long jumpers do not a miracle tip-in make. And yet Quis had a "bad" box score.

                        In other words, sometimes players also benefit from the roster around them and how they are being used. Maybe Rick held them back (though most players have some of their best years playing for him - see Artest, Fred Jones, perhaps Stackhouse), and maybe JOB is helping them. My feeling is that Quis, TJ, Rush and the improved Granger are meshing nicely with what Troy can do.

                        Plus Troy looks more active and healthy than he previously did.

                        Comment


                        • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                          Maybe the real discussion should be about how/why Troy has seen this big improvement.

                          I mean early on he was living on a lot of soft/uncontested defensive boards and still has a pretty out of whack OFF/DEF rebounding ratio compared to most top rebounders, including Foster.

                          But in the last 8-10 games it seems like he has been coming in very aggressive on some highly contested defensive boards and has done a pretty good job at denying 2nd chances for opponents.

                          Anyone who watched the team closely the last 2 years knows that Troy now doesn't match Troy of then. Something changed, and not just the coach because it was JOB last year too.



                          BTW, I also agree with the feeling of "see what happens when McBob plays". The dude may pick up fouls for playing too aggressive, but he does get after it and does create havoc for the other team. I really would like to see him worked up more because when you talk about PF of the future he's showing the talent to be a reliable rebounding/defending big that can score his 8-10 per. I think he shows potential to be better than both Troy and Jeff, he just needs some refinement.

                          Comment


                          • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                            Seth one thing I remember reading about Troy before the season started was that he had lost about 20 lbs. I'm sure he has more energy, quicker feet etc.
                            "He wanted to get to that money time. Time when the hardware was on the table. That's when Roger was going to show up. So all we needed to do was stay close"
                            Darnell Hillman (Speaking of former teammate Roger Brown)

                            Comment


                            • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                              The only thing I wish was that the NBA would keep/restrict/prohibit/whatever players salary's from being published.

                              The fact that people evaluate a players worth by their contract is just beyond me. Either they play well or they don't. I understand if player A making salary X equals not being able to pay player Z. But going into this season at training camp we all knew that the roster was pretty much set other than whatever they were going to do with Tinsley.

                              I don't care if Troy Murphy makes more or less money than Maceo Baston, I don't have to pay their checks. On the other hand I care deeply about how players play on the floor and how they mesh with other players.

                              Troy has faults, always has always will, he is not a typical POWER forward. But he also has some positive attributes and those positives are far more than the fact that in a few years he will be an expiring contract.


                              Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

                              Comment


                              • Re: Troy Murphy is worthless

                                Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                                Maybe the real discussion should be about how/why Troy has seen this big improvement.

                                I mean early on he was living on a lot of soft/uncontested defensive boards and still has a pretty out of whack OFF/DEF rebounding ratio compared to most top rebounders, including Foster.

                                But in the last 8-10 games it seems like he has been coming in very aggressive on some highly contested defensive boards and has done a pretty good job at denying 2nd chances for opponents.

                                Anyone who watched the team closely the last 2 years knows that Troy now doesn't match Troy of then. Something changed, and not just the coach because it was JOB last year too.
                                At least in terms of rebounding.....you guys will have to tell me if JO'B has emphasized this in the previous season.....but I think that with the addition of Rasho/Hibbert and being paired with Foster.....the 3 of them are doing a much better job of "boxing" out players which ( in turn ) has allowed Murphy to pull down the rebound. I'm totally guessing here....but I suspect that there is a correlation between Foster's drop in rebounding #s this season ( 2.4 ORPG / 3.7 DRPG / 6.1 TRPG ) compared to last season ( 3.4 ORPG / 5.3 DRPG / 8.7 TRPG ) and Murphy's improved Rebounding #s. My guess is that Foster ( and whoever else is on the floor with Murphy in the Frontcourt ) purpose now is to properly "box out" the opposing Frontcourt player ( one of those "fundamentals" that JO'B likes to emphasize ) so that Murphy can swoop in and pull down the Rebound.

                                As for his scoring, although he hasn't always been consistent....I suspect that having better Scoring options like Ford and Marquis has allowed him to score more often since the defensive pressure is off of him....allowing him to be take between 8-11 FGA ( which he is better suited to be as a 3rd / 4th scoring option ) as opposed to taking 10-14 FGA ( as a 2nd/3rd scoring option on the team ).
                                Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

                                Comment

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