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Duarte

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  • #76
    Originally posted by PacerDude View Post
    Let me see if I got this right --

    Not everyone is happy with the Pacers picking Duarte. Even given the Pacers history of drafting.

    Yeah - OK. W in TF is wrong with some people ?? Do they want another TJ Leaf ?? Another Goga ?? Primoz Brezec ?? Yes - I'm fully aware it's only 3 games, but 20 a game on 45% 3PT shooting ain't chopped liver. In the meantime, Moody is averaging 1.0 in 4.5 minutes a game.

    I give up on some folks............
    I mean Moody is playing behind Poole, Wiggins and Andre. The same thing would of happened to Duarte too. If the team wasn’t injured then Duarte would be in the same situation. Sure Duarte is balling and that helps with making the best decision for the short term. The whole scenario of the draft reminds me of the Pelicans choosing Buddy over Jamal Murray because Buddy was more pro ready and the Pelicans were in “win now mode” like the Pacers came to be.
    Last edited by Motion Offense; 10-24-2021, 12:39 PM.

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    • #77
      Originally posted by Motion Offense View Post

      I mean Moody is playing behind Poole, Wiggins and Andre. The same thing would of happened to Duarte too. If the team wasn’t injured then Duarte would be in the same situation. Sure Duarte is balling and that helps with making the best decision for the short term. The whole scenario of the draft reminds me of the Pelicans choosing Buddy over Jamal Murray because Buddy was more pro ready and the Pelicans were in “win now mode” like the Pacers came to be.
      Considering Murray and Hield had similar impacts as rookies with incredibly similar stat lines, I really don’t see how it’s similar at all.

      Comment


      • #78
        Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post

        Considering Murray and Hield had similar impacts as rookies with incredibly similar stat lines, I really don’t see how it’s similar at all.
        This is before they played in the NBA. Pelicans went with a player they believed would make an immediate impact like the Pacers did. Buddy was 24 years old. Murray was 19 years old at the time. The Pelicans went with the older prospect at the time because they had Anthony Davis. Mind you Anthony Davis is younger than Buddy Hield.

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        • #79
          Originally posted by Motion Offense View Post

          This is before they played in the NBA. Pelicans went with a player they believed would make an immediate impact like the Pacers did. Buddy was 24 years old. Murray was 19 years old at the time. The Pelicans went with the older prospect at the time because they had Anthony Davis. Mind you Anthony Davis is younger than Buddy Hield.
          Right, and if the Kings strategy was “we think Murray will be better long term but Hield can make an impact now” it was clearly a bad pick because Murray made just as much of an impact as Hield did from year 1.

          we don’t know what the Pacers thinking was. Were they thinking Moody will be better long term but wanted the instant impact? Or did they just simply think Duarte is, and will be, the better player?

          Regardless, the key difference so far is Duarte is lighting it up while Moody isn’t even getting playing time. Which makes it a completely different reality from the Hield vs Murray impact as rookies and as a result, long term projections.

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post

            This is such a bad way to approach the draft to me. You can’t draft purely on potential, maybe in a late 2nd round pick you can miss on sure, but let’s assume Duarte’s ceiling is similar to a Brogdon, are you going to pass on a Brogdon to go purely with potential? A 20+ PPG scorer at the 13th pick isn’t enough? You need to draft a player who you feel has less of a chance of realizing his potential, and is also currently worse because maybe he has a slight chance of becoming a star?

            that just seems like such a bad strategy that’s going to lead to a lot of bad picks you me.

            Duarte RIGHT NOW looks like a really good player. I know everyone likes to make jokes about his age, but the reality is assuming the usual trajectory applies to him, Duarte still has 3-4 years before he hits his prime. He has room to grow.

            it’s early, but those early returns tell me not only was he a good pick at 13, he might be one of the best picks in the entire draft.
            I'm aware of the variables and every situation is different, but say you had a 19yo who's ceiling is similar to a Brogdon and a 24yo who's ceiling is similar to Brogdon. Do you draft the 19yo or the 24yo. The 24yo might produce a bit more NOW but the 19yo theoretically gives you more years of production. Forgetting my opinion of Turner, he's 25 and in his 7th season with the Pacers... Booker, whom we should have drafted, is 25 and in his 7th year with the Suns. Both have contributed significantly to their respective franchises with several more years of production ahead. Had either been 24 when drafted, they'd be nearing the end of their careers already.

            Any 24yo rookie drafted in the 1st is going to be given immediate minutes to justify such a selection, whereas the 19yo will likely be groomed for a season or two before given a similar opportunity. Who's to say that 19yo you viewed more highly in college isn't capable of producing similarly or outproducing that 24yo? We usually don't know because again, teams will take their time with the 19yo. If you are confident in your ability to scout, and view even in college one player is superior to the other with a higher ceiling at the next level, you should probably draft that player, especially if he's the 19yo. And if you view them equally, it might also be wise to draft the 19yo, regardless of the extra year or two of development.

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            • #81
              Originally posted by croz24 View Post

              I'm aware of the variables and every situation is different, but say you had a 19yo who's ceiling is similar to a Brogdon and a 24yo who's ceiling is similar to Brogdon. Do you draft the 19yo or the 24yo. The 24yo might produce a bit more NOW but the 19yo theoretically gives you more years of production. Forgetting my opinion of Turner, he's 25 and in his 7th season with the Pacers... Booker, whom we should have drafted, is 25 and in his 7th year with the Suns. Both have contributed significantly to their respective franchises with several more years of production ahead. Had either been 24 when drafted, they'd be nearing the end of their careers already.

              Any 24yo rookie drafted in the 1st is going to be given immediate minutes to justify such a selection, whereas the 19yo will likely be groomed for a season or two before given a similar opportunity. Who's to say that 19yo you viewed more highly in college isn't capable of producing similarly or outproducing that 24yo? We usually don't know because again, teams will take their time with the 19yo. If you are confident in your ability to scout, and view even in college one player is superior to the other with a higher ceiling at the next level, you should probably draft that player, especially if he's the 19yo. And if you view them equally, it might also be wise to draft the 19yo, regardless of the extra year or two of development.
              Talking about ceilings in a vacuum is a completely meaningless concept. All ceilings are not created equal. Not all players are judged with an equal chance of reaching their ceiling. Scouts aren’t just supposed to determine how good you can theoretically be, they’re supposed to determine how realistic the outcome is that you reach that point.

              Yes, maybe Moody will justify it down the road, or maybe he’ll never be more than a role player and all the talk of his theoretical ceiling will be meaningless.

              Age should be a tiny factor. If you think Duarte will be better, then draft him. It’s that simple.

              Comment


              • #82
                Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post

                Talking about ceilings in a vacuum is a completely meaningless concept. All ceilings are not created equal. Not all players are judged with an equal chance of reaching their ceiling. Scouts aren’t just supposed to determine how good you can theoretically be, they’re supposed to determine how realistic the outcome is that you reach that point.

                Yes, maybe Moody will justify it down the road, or maybe he’ll never be more than a role player and all the talk of his theoretical ceiling will be meaningless.

                Age should be a tiny factor. If you think Duarte will be better, then draft him. It’s that simple.
                Right, I mean one way to look at it is the realistic value of those years from 19-24. Very few players during those years are going to be exceptional, IOW, they will be of a level easily (more effectively) filled by a veteran like a Brogdon or Levert. Unless you're talking about a kid that's an all-star/all NBA during those years, it doesn't really matter that you didn't get those "extra years" of production bc they're not contributing as much. Even Kobe Bryant didn't really break out until he was 22-23. Same with George who was what, 24, before he really became special?

                In Duarte's case, the growth and development has already mostly occurred while he was in college, on another roster, and by drafting him at 24 we are bringing him on board just as he would be growing into the NBA starter talent that he appears to be. Talking about what he would've done here at 22yo is fairly irrelevant.
                Last edited by OneMoreYear; 10-24-2021, 02:26 PM.

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                • #83
                  Also, we have Duarte locked up from 24-28 on a rookie deal. Drafting a 19 year old, you get very little production on the rookie deal, then if they show any promise as a 23 year old, you’ll have to pay 20-30 million dollars per season for those 24-28 seasons.

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                  • #84
                    Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post

                    Talking about ceilings in a vacuum is a completely meaningless concept. All ceilings are not created equal. Not all players are judged with an equal chance of reaching their ceiling. Scouts aren’t just supposed to determine how good you can theoretically be, they’re supposed to determine how realistic the outcome is that you reach that point.

                    Yes, maybe Moody will justify it down the road, or maybe he’ll never be more than a role player and all the talk of his theoretical ceiling will be meaningless.

                    Age should be a tiny factor. If you think Duarte will be better, then draft him. It’s that simple.
                    You brought up "ceiling" and I replied off that. Of course not all ceiling are created equal, never said they were. But not all scouts are created equal as well. Some scouts said Anthony Bennett and Markelle Fultz should be #1 picks in the draft... I said these guys are guaranteed busts that we should NEVER touch. Some scouts have a gift for knowing which collegians will amount to something and some don't. My initial point is that scouting is not some crap shoot and to act like the draft is some crap shoot just isn't correct. If you view two players equally, at the same position, with the only separation being age... draft the player 5 years younger.

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                    • #85
                      In my opinion Chris Duarte should remain a starter when TJ and Caris come back. There is one caveat though. If he starts, it means he'd play SF, or Caris would play SF. I don't think either one is a SF. Caris is 6'6 205, Chris is 6'5 190. So if you're going by size, Caris would have to slide to SF. Not sure if he can play that position full time although I remember him playing that position in Brooklyn with no problem. Moving Chris to SF full time would stunt his growth imo. TJ (Warren) would come off the bench, which makes sense because his injury is a foot injury. So you wanna bring him back slowly to make sure it's fully healed, plus conditioning, playing shape, etc. Our bench would be:

                      Warren
                      Justin Holiday
                      Brissett
                      Lamb
                      TJ McConnell

                      If Chris hits a major wall at some point later in the season, then, I guess, you could slide TJ back in as a starter.

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                      • #86


                        Originally posted by croz24 View Post
                        If you view two players equally, at the same position, with the only separation being age... draft the player 5 years younger.
                        Here's what gets left out of that argument - how long will it take the player 5 years younger to develop? If you can draft a guy at 24 who is ready to start vs. the 19 year old who isn't going to start for 4-5 years, what's the advantage of the younger guy?

                        Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk

                        BillS

                        A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                        Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post

                          This is such a bad way to approach the draft to me. You can’t draft purely on potential, maybe in a late 2nd round pick you can miss on sure, but let’s assume Duarte’s ceiling is similar to a Brogdon, are you going to pass on a Brogdon to go purely with potential? A 20+ PPG scorer at the 13th pick isn’t enough? You need to draft a player who you feel has less of a chance of realizing his potential, and is also currently worse because maybe he has a slight chance of becoming a star?

                          that just seems like such a bad strategy that’s going to lead to a lot of bad picks you me.
                          To answer your question here, it depends on what you have on your roster already and what sorts of conceivable moves your team may make in areas outside the draft, and what it is you want from your team. If you just want a bunch of guys with no chance at a ring who go out and compete hard every night then go with the sure thing. If you already have a superstar or two on the team go with the sure thing. If you think you can acquire a superstar via trade or free agency very very soon then go for the sure thing. Otherwise go for potential. A 1% chance at drafting the next Giannis is worth more than drafting 15 Brogdons in a row. There is no amount of good or even very good players that make a great team. Only great players make great teams. If you think we can swing a move in the next year or so to get a top 10 guy then Duarte may end up a really great pick. If we don't, the fans can all brag about how awesome a pick he was while we collect first, or if we are very lucky second round exits every year. Yay!

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by BillS View Post



                            Here's what gets left out of that argument - how long will it take the player 5 years younger to develop? If you can draft a guy at 24 who is ready to start vs. the 19 year old who isn't going to start for 4-5 years, what's the advantage of the younger guy?

                            Sent from my SM-G988U using Tapatalk
                            The disadvantage is he costs you more money to get him early as others have pointed out
                            {o,o}
                            |)__)
                            -"-"-

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Originally posted by croz24 View Post

                              You brought up "ceiling" and I replied off that. Of course not all ceiling are created equal, never said they were. But not all scouts are created equal as well. Some scouts said Anthony Bennett and Markelle Fultz should be #1 picks in the draft... I said these guys are guaranteed busts that we should NEVER touch. Some scouts have a gift for knowing which collegians will amount to something and some don't. My initial point is that scouting is not some crap shoot and to act like the draft is some crap shoot just isn't correct. If you view two players equally, at the same position, with the only separation being age... draft the player 5 years younger.
                              Oh it’s definitely not a crap shoot but there’s absolutely an element of luck involved. You can do your best to try to predict how it will play out but it’s not an exact science.

                              If you think a kid who’s 19 is as good of a prospect as a kid who’s 24 you should absolutely take the 19 year old, but I don’t think that’s the case here.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Originally posted by Wage View Post

                                To answer your question here, it depends on what you have on your roster already and what sorts of conceivable moves your team may make in areas outside the draft, and what it is you want from your team. If you just want a bunch of guys with no chance at a ring who go out and compete hard every night then go with the sure thing. If you already have a superstar or two on the team go with the sure thing. If you think you can acquire a superstar via trade or free agency very very soon then go for the sure thing. Otherwise go for potential. A 1% chance at drafting the next Giannis is worth more than drafting 15 Brogdons in a row. There is no amount of good or even very good players that make a great team. Only great players make great teams. If you think we can swing a move in the next year or so to get a top 10 guy then Duarte may end up a really great pick. If we don't, the fans can all brag about how awesome a pick he was while we collect first, or if we are very lucky second round exits every year. Yay!
                                Going to completely disagree with the 1% chance of Giannis is better than 15 Brogdon’s.

                                simply cannot disagree with that concept more. You take the guy who you believe will be the better player.

                                in the case of Duarte, if you think he maxes out at a Brogdon level player (even though Brogdon himself says Duarte has a lot more to his game than he did at that age), then that’s way better than a 1% chance of Giannis or bust (assuming that’s the concept)
                                Last edited by BlueCollarColts; 10-24-2021, 05:56 PM.

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