http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds
We all know that Hollinger lives in the world of numbers, and that reality doesn't always reflect well. I appreciate his stats articles partly because they try to remove bias, and reveal trends that are hard to see when watching highlight reels and Gatorade commercials.
On a personal note, I've been happy to be wrong so far about our Pacers. I'd pegged them at 31 wins at the beginning of the season... a half game under where Vegas put them. A team that exceeds expectations is a very exciting thing indeed. I look forward to catching a game with my Dad when I come home to visit for the holidays.
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Hollinger Playoff Odds 2007-08
Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.
Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger's explanation.
Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are updated automatically each night.
* Phoenix owns Atlanta's first-round pick.
We all know that Hollinger lives in the world of numbers, and that reality doesn't always reflect well. I appreciate his stats articles partly because they try to remove bias, and reveal trends that are hard to see when watching highlight reels and Gatorade commercials.
On a personal note, I've been happy to be wrong so far about our Pacers. I'd pegged them at 31 wins at the beginning of the season... a half game under where Vegas put them. A team that exceeds expectations is a very exciting thing indeed. I look forward to catching a game with my Dad when I come home to visit for the holidays.
-----------------------------
Hollinger Playoff Odds 2007-08
Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are based on the Hollinger Power Rankings, designed by ESPN.com's John Hollinger.
The Hollinger Power Rankings are a measure of each team's performance in the season so far.
Based on those rankings, each day the computer plays out the remainder of the season 5,000 times to see the potential range of projected outcomes. The results reveal the most likely win-loss record for each team -- and how likely it is for each team to make the playoffs, win the NBA title, win the lottery, and so on.
For more on how the system works and what it means, see Hollinger's explanation.
Hollinger's NBA Playoff Odds are updated automatically each night.
Eastern Conference | |||||||||||||||
| ACTUAL | PROJECTED | ODDS (%) | ||||||||||||
Team | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 | Finals | Champs | Lottery | |||
Boston | 15 | 2 | 64 | 18 | 77-5 | 51-31 | 100.0 | 99.9 | 78.6 | 53.6 | 42.6 | 0.0 | |||
Detroit | 13 | 5 | 58 | 24 | 70-12 | 44-38 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 4.4 | 20.2 | 13.2 | 0.0 | |||
Orlando | 16 | 4 | 60 | 22 | 70-12 | 47-35 | 100.0 | 100.0 | 17.0 | 23.0 | 14.6 | 0.0 | |||
Toronto | 10 | 9 | 46 | 36 | 58-24 | 34-48 | 99.7 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | |||
Washington | 9 | 9 | 44 | 38 | 57-25 | 32-50 | 98.6 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 | |||
Indiana | 9 | 10 | 41 | 41 | 57-25 | 28-54 | 93.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.2 | |||
Cleveland | 9 | 11 | 37 | 45 | 50-32 | 23-59 | 63.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.8 | |||
Atlanta | 7 | 10 | 37 | 45 | 50-32 | 24-58 | 59.9 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | |||
Milwaukee | 8 | 9 | 33 | 49 | 46-36 | 20-62 | 21.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |||
Philadelphia | 5 | 13 | 33 | 49 | 47-35 | 20-62 | 21.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |||
Miami | 4 | 13 | 32 | 50 | 47-35 | 18-64 | 14.8 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.2 | |||
New Jersey | 9 | 10 | 33 | 49 | 48-34 | 21-61 | 14.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 3.1 | |||
Chicago | 5 | 11 | 32 | 50 | 43-39 | 19-63 | 12.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 4.6 | |||
New York | 6 | 11 | 28 | 54 | 41-41 | 15-67 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 8.9 | |||
Charlotte | 6 | 11 | 26 | 56 | 39-43 | 15-67 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 12.5 |
Western Conference | |||||||||||||||
| ACTUAL | PROJECTED | ODDS (%) | ||||||||||||
Team | W | L | W | L | Best | Worst | Playoffs | Division | No. 1 | Finals | Champs | Lottery | |||
San Antonio | 16 | 3 | 58 | 24 | 70-12 | 44-38 | 100.0 | 96.8 | 55.0 | 27.8 | 9.8 | 0.0 | |||
Phoenix | 15 | 4 | 56 | 26 | 71-11 | 43-39 | 100.0 | 77.3 | 23.5 | 16.9 | 4.7 | 0.7* | |||
Utah | 13 | 6 | 55 | 27 | 67-15 | 39-43 | 99.9 | 99.2 | 17.2 | 21.6 | 6.5 | 0.0 | |||
Golden State | 10 | 8 | 51 | 31 | 63-19 | 38-44 | 99.0 | 12.7 | 2.4 | 13.4 | 3.3 | 0.0 | |||
LA Lakers | 11 | 8 | 51 | 31 | 62-20 | 38-44 | 98.9 | 10.0 | 1.6 | 11.4 | 2.9 | 0.0 | |||
Dallas | 12 | 7 | 48 | 34 | 59-23 | 34-48 | 92.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 3.8 | 0.7 | 0.0 | |||
Houston | 10 | 9 | 47 | 35 | 59-23 | 34-48 | 92.2 | 1.3 | 0.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.0 | |||
New Orleans | 12 | 7 | 44 | 38 | 58-24 | 31-51 | 59.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 0.3 | |||
Denver | 11 | 8 | 42 | 40 | 54-28 | 30-52 | 45.2 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.2 | |||
Sacramento | 7 | 10 | 38 | 44 | 50-32 | 25-57 | 9.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.8 | |||
Memphis | 6 | 12 | 36 | 46 | 47-35 | 24-58 | 3.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 1.3 | |||
Portland | 6 | 12 | 32 | 50 | 45-37 | 20-62 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 5.3 | |||
LA Clippers | 6 | 11 | 25 | 57 | 37-45 | 14-68 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 13.5 | |||
Minnesota | 2 | 14 | 19 | 63 | 35-47 | 8-74 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 22.7 | |||
Seattle | 4 | 15 | 24 | 58 | 38-44 | 12-70 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 14.7 |
Hollinger Playoff Odds Glossary |
Wins = Average number of wins from 5,000 computer-simulated seasons, based on the Hollinger Power Rankings |
Losses = Average number of losses |
Best = Best record from simulated seasons |
Worst = Worst record from simulated seasons |
Playoffs = Likelihood of making the playoffs |
Division = Likelihood of winning the division |
No. 1 = Likelihood of holding the top seed for the conference |
Finals = Likelihood of making the NBA Finals |
Champs = Likelihood of winning the NBA title |
Lottery = Likelihood of winning the lottery |
* Phoenix owns Atlanta's first-round pick.
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