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Sabonis at the Four: What are your expectations?

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  • #16
    Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post
    Iím curious what an extension for Sabonis would look like... 15-16 million per? Or would he demand more than that?
    I think 18 minimum.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by BlueCollarColts View Post

      Have you actually looked at their numbers versus good teams? Sabonis/Turner was effective against several high end playoff teams. Saying itís good versus bad teams and bad versus good teams doesnít hold up to what we saw last season. Granted, it was limited in scope.
      No I havenít looked at the numbers. Iím hoping that this is just them finding Sabonis minutes and doing the combo only when appropriate. If Iím remembering correctly in game 2 against the Celtics we were winning and Thad was in foul trouble with 4 or 5 heading towards end of game. We had the lead but they had just seized momentum. Nate put in Sabonis with Turner and it was good night Irene. I just think they are too slow for todayís frantic half court perimeter oriented style of defense.

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      • #18
        Offensively: See Al Horford's tenure with Boston. Sabonis does not do his best work as a scorer, not that he isn't capable however. His biggest strength, outside of his strength is his ability to pass the ball. He is the kind of guy you can run the offense through out of high or low post. I hear people say he will be able to punish smaller 4's to compensate for his lack of defense, but I don't think we see this as he will likely be operating in the post for us meaning the opposing C which match up with him defensively while Turner plays the perimeter. I think he will create a lot of looks for Myles who will have the luxury of being able to shoot over people, not too mention Oladipo, Brogdon & Lamb will be able to cut off of Sabonis for looks at the bucket. I think we see a nice increase in offensive rebounds here as well, the man is a workhorse on the glass in particular on offensive end, so more minutes will likely mean more boards.

        Defensively: This is where everyone has the issue with our 2 big line-up & I can completely understand it, but I don't think it is as big of an issue as people make out. Look at our division for one thing at the PF spot - Griffin, Markkanen, Love & Antetokoumpo. That is a pretty stacked PF group for Sabonis to go against, all very good scorers & can create for themselves offensively. Apart from Antetokoumpo, now of them are going to blow by Sabonis with their speed. Griffin for one was more inclined to use his physicality to score as he put the ball on the floor, with Sabonis that'll be hard to do. Markkanen is a new age PF in an old PF's body, he handles the ball well & can score but again doesn't have blow by pace. Kevin Love like Sabonis has limited wingspan, watching some recent play off his, it appears most of his scoring will come off the ball so we have to be good on our switches as he runs through screens, but again not a guy going to blow by Sabonis. Now as for Antetokoumpo, no one in the league was good at stopping him by themself, so you double a guy like that & clog the lane given his jumpshot is still below average (at least it was last season). We played great team defense last year & we have upgraded our defensive capabilities astronomically with Brogdon replacing Collison, so this is where we make up for Sabonis' shortcomings defensively, as a team!!!

        Summary - Offensively it could work really well with Turner, Brogdon & Warren all very good floor spacers, allowing Sabonis & Oladipo to do some really nice 2-man game in pick & roll situations. I expect to see an Oladipo/Sabonis duo & Brogdon/Turner duo on the court at nearly all times. Defensively it'll be a struggle, but good team defense will help here & that is something we are very good at. Once Vic is healthy we have 2 elitle wing defenders & one of the best shot blockers in the entire league, Sabonis will have a lot of help.
        Stat prediction 13ppg/11rpg/5apg in 30mpg. The scoring may seem a little low, but his key role should be too facilitate offensively not score he could be one of the best in the league at this. He still needs to work on the 3-ball which will really help, if he can get to 35-38% on around 3 attempts a game that'll be a good little tool to use.
        Last edited by festar35; 07-14-2019, 01:43 AM.

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        • #19
          Turner may need to cover small ball 4's that are too fast for Sabonis. Sabonis may be better than Turner against stronger 5's.

          Sent from my Z982 using Tapatalk

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          • #20
            Sabonis will get his 32 minutes a game give or take but will still play the C 12-15 minutes a night. He and Myles will figure it out offensively and be a load for opposing teams. Defensively the bigger issue will be the minutes Leaf plays at the 4. Particularly when he is on the floor with Sabonis.

            Getting Sabonisí extension done has to be a priority for this team. Can also see a stat line in the 18-10-4 range for points, boards & assists.


            Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
            Last edited by Downtown Bang!; 07-14-2019, 08:01 AM.

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            • #21
              Originally posted by Pacerized View Post
              I'm going to be pissed if Sabonis doesn't get at least 30 mpg and I'm hoping for 32, if he does then I expect him to thrive at the 4 and give us 18/10 at the minimum.
              13 players averaged > 10 boards a game last year. Of those, 6 averaged > 18 points a game. As much as I like Sabonis as a part of this team, those expectations are just a little off the chart. Especially when most of his minutes will be against starters - not benches like most of last year was.

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              • #22
                I don't think it'll work but as of right now he's our best option. Other than Alize, we don't have a PF that is a defensive threat (and even right now that's questionable). Our PF options are all solid offensively. I hope it works cause I love Sabo's game but pessimistic that it will. Truly think foul trouble will get him.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by PacersHomer View Post
                  It not to work out because quicker 4s just destroy him on defense and McMillan can't find the right way to use him offense, they put him on the bench after going 10-15 to start and start Warren at the 4 which along with Oladipo returning gives us a nice run of wins and Sabonis excels as the backup center, then instead of trading Sabonis for a young wing and a pick, we use this momentum to get the 6 seed where we get swept by the Celtics again and Sabonis walks in the offseason after getting a 4 year 80 million dollar deal from the Raptors. Also McMillan gets another coaching extension for some reason.
                  Yeah my prediction is very similar but I think they are going to destroy his value so much they are gonna have to trade him for a bag of Cheetos and call it a day, donít forget Sabo is on record wanting to start pretty much telling Pacers ďstart me or trade meĒ.

                  They will panic and sign some PF free agent that has been bought out or something like that.
                  @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

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                  • #24
                    Originally posted by jrwannabe View Post
                    I don't think it'll work but as of right now he's our best option. Other than Alize, we don't have a PF that is a defensive threat (and even right now that's questionable). Our PF options are all solid offensively. I hope it works cause I love Sabo's game but pessimistic that it will. Truly think foul trouble will get him.
                    I'm hoping for 32 mpg for Sabonis which is a 33% increase in playing time. Sabonis is at 9.3 boards now and 14.1 ppg. Do you think his numbers will go down with an additional 8 mpg?
                    Larry Bird qouted March 25th. 2015:

                    Bird: I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really. We don't have that much, so you leave your options open. If we did make a trade, I didn't want to take on a lot of contracts -- because that's what usually happens. Plus, I liked my guys. They're playing well. If we keep the core together and Paul comes back healthy, we'll be right back to where we were.

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                    • #25
                      Originally posted by Pacerized View Post
                      Do you think his numbers will go down with an additional 8 mpg?
                      Yeah. He's not going to be as much of a focus on offense as a starter as he was as a bench player. He'll be going against better defenders and he'll have better offensive players around him.

                      Still say the 6th man role is the best for him.

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                      • #26
                        Originally posted by PacerDude View Post

                        Yeah. He's not going to be as much of a focus on offense as a starter as he was as a bench player. He'll be going against better defenders and he'll have better offensive players around him.

                        Still say the 6th man role is the best for him.
                        Sabonis should be the focus of our offense while Vic is out. Get the ball to Sabonis and if he's pressured he's a great passer who will make teams pay whether he scores or finds the open mad.
                        Larry Bird qouted March 25th. 2015:

                        Bird: I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really. We don't have that much, so you leave your options open. If we did make a trade, I didn't want to take on a lot of contracts -- because that's what usually happens. Plus, I liked my guys. They're playing well. If we keep the core together and Paul comes back healthy, we'll be right back to where we were.

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                        • #27
                          Originally posted by Pacerized View Post

                          I'm hoping for 32 mpg for Sabonis which is a 33% increase in playing time. Sabonis is at 9.3 boards now and 14.1 ppg. Do you think his numbers will go down with an additional 8 mpg?
                          If he can get 32 minutes a game, I see his average staying about the same. But I see him getting about the same minutes as last year due to foul trouble. And since he will be facing starters and playing with starters, I see his point average falling but rebounds will stay close to the same. 12/9 as a starter

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                          • #28
                            Originally posted by bumpercar3 View Post

                            Per 36 has to be taken with a grain of salt. You are less fatigued and playing mainly against weak competition in the East. This experiment needs to happen. Fans need to be shown that it canít work against real competition. Again, it will work against the hornets, Cavs, pistons, bulls, Thunder, etc.... it will not work against the Rockets, Spurs, Clippers, Celtics, Raptors, Lakers, etc... Those that want it to work will site the numbers vs tankers. Those that understand this is another gimmick will simply watch Sabonis not close when we play real teams.
                            Ok let's look at his stats while he is starting.

                            In 31mpg as a starter he averaged 18.4ppg, 11.6rpg, and 4.4apg. That is about right on track with his per 36 numbers. I expect he'll average about what his per36 numbers last year were as a starter this year playing around 30-32 minutes, with maybe slightly fewer rebounds since he'll be playing next to Turner instead of whoever McMillian decided to fill in the backup 4 position that night.

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                            • #29
                              Minor thing, but he actually averaged 4.2 assists per 36, the 5.6 is per 100 possessions.
                              Did you know Antonio and Dale aren’t actually brothers?

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                              • #30
                                I expect Sabonis to play the post on offense, and Turner to play the post on defense. Perhaps on defense they'll play a 3 2 zone with Domas and Myles down low. It will be interesting. Just hope Sabonis plays better next season than he did during the playoffs last year.

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