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Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

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  • #16
    Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

    James is on their roster on both NBA.co and Hoops Hype, so it did go through. Williams may have been a better choice if they had the option. I'll have to look at the free agent list again to see what bigs they might get. The only ones that come to mind are Melvin Ely and Oberto, but only because they are Spurs and I read about them today.

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    • #17
      Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

      Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
      Indiana outgoing: Jermaine O'Neal, Marquis Daniels.
      Indiana incoming: Kurt Thomas, Thabo Sefalosha, Ben Gordon, Shawn Marion, Atlanta's 2008 number one pick.

      Pheonix outgoing: Kurt Thomas, Shawn Marion, Atlanta's number one pick in 2008.
      Pheonix incoming: PJ Brown, Tyrus Thomas, Marquis Daniels, Chris Duhon

      Chicago incoming: Jermaine ONeal, Marcus Banks
      Chicago outgoing: Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefalosha, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon (thanks, I forgot to add him here originally) and a signed and traded PJ Brown to a large enough one year deal to make the numbers work.
      I think this is a good start.

      The Bulls would love to have Jermaine. He is exactly what they need.

      The Suns are probably looking to deal Marion and Tyrus Thomas would be a nice replacement.

      We get a nice package for Jermaine.

      Here is what I see wrong with this trade though.

      Why do the Suns get the Hawks pick when they are giving up Shawn Marion for Tyrus Thomas? They don't need to give up a possible lottery pick for someone to take on Marion.

      The Bulls trade both of their shooting guards and almost all of their backcourt except for Hinrich. Not going to happen especiall with them already dealing Tyrus Thomas.

      I think the Bulls would be willing to part with one or the other but not both Gordon and Thomas. JMO though.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

        Originally posted by SycamoreKen View Post
        James is on their roster on both NBA.co and Hoops Hype, so it did go through. Williams may have been a better choice if they had the option. I'll have to look at the free agent list again to see what bigs they might get. The only ones that come to mind are Melvin Ely and Oberto, but only because they are Spurs and I read about them today.
        Unless they get Lewis...I doubt they spend a lot of money on a forward. I can see them trying to pick up a smaller contract like Danny Fortson or Malik Allen. But I could be totally wrong, I haven't looked up the Rockets cap situation.
        I think KP is a Captain Planet fan. He believes that the collective will of five decent starters can outweigh the power of top-level talent. Too bad Herb won't cut the check for their Planeteer rings.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

          Originally posted by indyman37 View Post
          Unless they get Lewis...I doubt they spend a lot of money on a forward. I can see them trying to pick up a smaller contract like Danny Fortson or Malik Allen. But I could be totally wrong, I haven't looked up the Rockets cap situation.
          The Rockets are at just a tick under $63 million with 13 guys signed under contract. That doesn't include their 1st rounder, so that makes 14 spots locked. Maybe they are going to trade a couple of their guards.

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          • #20
            Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

            Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
            7. MIAMI WILL INDEED ROLL THE DICE AND TRADE FOR RON ARTEST.
            If Pat thought his hip was bad enough to take a leave in the middle of the season what is having Ron Artest going to do to him? One of them will end up in the psych ward while the other will end up six feet under. I'm just not sure who will end up where.

            5. INDIANA WILL FINALLY PULL THE TRIGGER ON A JERMAINE O'NEAL TRADE IN A THREE WAY DEAL INVOLVING CHICAGO AND PHEONIX.

            Now, the question on this deal is what would Pheonix recieve from Chicago. Perhaps a sign and trade with PJ Brown (rumored to be considering Pheonix anyway), Chris Duhon ( nice player and backup to Nash potentially, and is maybe on the way out in Chicago due to a tendency to hit the night clubs, angering Skiles), Ben Gordon, Tyrus Thomas, and Thabo Sefalosha could be part of it too.
            I don't have a problem with giving up PJ and Duhon. I'd probably grudgingly give up Ben G. and Thabo, but no way in do I want to give up Tyrus.

            As for JO I'm not even convinced I even want him, but that might be my intense dislike for most things Pacers coloring my judgement.

            Comment


            • #21
              Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

              i don't know what the other teams are going to do but i think many of the pacer predictions are spot on.

              Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
              Now, for the Pacers version of this prediction thread:

              1. THE PACERS WILL MAKE NO MOVES THAT RAISE THEIR PAYROLL FOR 2007-2008.

              Any future moves I feel this summer will be made in mind to reduce our costs. I believe, although we will never know, that this has been mandated by ownership. For a while the Pacers had a very high payroll....I think those days are likely over.
              this is almost certainly true. i believe that bird saying that we would possibly use the mle is just a sop to fans. anyone expecting a significant fa signing is going to be disappointed imo.

              Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
              4. THE PACERS WILL TRADE JEFF FOSTER TO SAN ANTONIO FOR BRENT BARRY AND A 2ND ROUND PICK.

              There may be some other small components of this deal, but I think this will be the basic premise. Foster is a San Antonio native and sees to be an ideal Popovich type player, and a good chemistry guy for the champs. If they sign Mo Pete as I suspect, they'll have no need for Barry. For us, we get a future pick, save some money, and get a good shooter with an expiring deal. Foster doesnt seem like a very good fit for either Jim O'Briens style of offense or Dick Harter's defense, at least to me. I also think the Pacers think highly of Jeff as a person and would like to steer him to a place he'd be happy and successful, and San Antonio is a perfect fit for him.
              not a bad trade. foster imo is more valuable as a backup for a contender than as a heavy minutes player for a fringe playoff team. if we're willing to take on more salary then i think we could get a more talented player back (i.e. similar to the cro for quis deal), but things are tight financially now so a trade for an expiring contract + future pick might look like the best move for foster.

              Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
              5. INDIANA WILL FINALLY PULL THE TRIGGER ON A JERMAINE O'NEAL TRADE IN A THREE WAY DEAL INVOLVING CHICAGO AND PHEONIX.

              I think it could look something like this:

              Indiana outgoing: Jermaine O'Neal, Marquis Daniels.
              Indiana incoming: Kurt Thomas, Thabo Sefalosha, Ben Gordon, Shawn Marion, Atlanta's 2008 number one pick.

              Pheonix outgoing: Kurt Thomas, Shawn Marion, Atlanta's number one pick in 2008.
              Pheonix incoming: PJ Brown, Tyrus Thomas, Marquis Daniels, Chris Duhon

              Chicago incoming: Jermaine ONeal, Marcus Banks
              Chicago outgoing: Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefalosha, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon (thanks, I forgot to add him here originally) and a signed and traded PJ Brown to a large enough one year deal to make the numbers work.
              i think pacers really are shopping jermaine, it's just a question of whether they find a deal they like.

              the bull-suns-pacers 3-way trade idea is intriguing. we certainly get back a lot of nice pieces. the only problem is that we're not getting back a young big - if you look at the other rumors out there, they all have a young big man with star potential coming back. i think tptb are insisting on this and they might not think that ben gordon + atlanta's 2008 pick would make up for it. i personally like it though.

              right now, i think the uncertainty around kg is affecting possible jo deals. imo teams are wondering whether to keep their assets for kg or make an all-out run for jo now. i think a jo deal will fall into place once kg is traded or if mchale makes it clear that garnett is staying put.

              Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
              6. INDIANA WILL FIND NO TAKERS FOR JAMAL TINSLEY, MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF JIM O'BRIEN ALL SEASON LONG.

              I do not see Coach O'Brien liking Tinsley's game and lack of a perimeter shot. I don't see Tinsley responding well to the intense coaching of Dick Harter and Jim O'Brien, particularly the intesne hard practices O'Brien is known for. However, for inexplicable reasons Tinsley seems to have a fan in Larry Bird, and will remain in Indiana at least one more season.
              i'm one of those who happen to think that tinsley would do better under obie than under rick. still would like to upgrade him for something better (like derrick rose ) - if he plays well then we might be able to "sell high" on him before the trading deadline.

              Originally posted by pwee31 View Post
              I could see the Pacers sending a filler with the 4mil T/E for Ridnour
              that deal doesn't work. the trade exception can't be combined with filler, and ridnour makes more than the exception ($6.5m). he's actually making more than tinsley ($6.3m) this season.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                Originally posted by grace View Post

                I don't have a problem with giving up PJ and Duhon. I'd probably grudgingly give up Ben G. and Thabo, but no way in do I want to give up Tyrus.
                really? when i heard that the bulls picked up noah in the draft, the first thing that came to my mind is that they'll trade tyrus.

                they seem to have similar strengths, so i would think that the bulls would be looking to swap tyrus for low post scorer, someone more like ike perhaps.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                  Originally posted by wintermute View Post
                  really? when i heard that the bulls picked up noah in the draft, the first thing that came to my mind is that they'll trade tyrus.

                  they seem to have similar strengths, so i would think that the bulls would be looking to swap tyrus for low post scorer, someone more like ike perhaps.
                  While I've been critical on Tyrus in this thread, I will concede that he has displayed the potential to put up at least average starter scoring numbers if he is ever given that role in the NBA. With Noah I just don't see that ever happening.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                    Honestly I think JO is going nowhere unless the Lakers decide to come off Bynum and Odom together, which I don't think they are going to do. I think they are prepared to ride it out and that Mitch is stubborn enough to call Kobe's holdout bluff, or let him sit without pay if that's really what he wants.

                    Perhaps after 3 weeks of Kobe refusing to play he would get dealt, but not before then IMO.

                    And I think if JOB wants to compete THIS year then he would like JO to be here still, so they will only deal JO if it's exactly the deal they want. Since he seems undervalued by other teams, at least from Indy's (and my) perspective, they won't get such an offer and will run with him again next season for better or worse.


                    Plus I strongly doubt the Pacers help out a division rival, and worse yet one so close to their market. Bad enough to have CLE or MIL winning at your expense, but the team just down the road? Brutal.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                      I still think that Pacers should only go for Bynum, other fillers, and not Odom...

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                        anyone expecting a significant fa signing is going to be disappointed imo.
                        Can't happen anyway. I mean the MLE is it, they can't even trade their way under the cap right now. And no "signficant" fa is found for the MLE, I mean that's why it's the MLE - you get a "mid-level" player for it.

                        So of course they won't increase their cap number for the most part, but they almost certainly have to increase it a tiny bit with at least part of the MLE simply to fill out 12 contracts ready to play this fall...barring a monster trade of course.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                          Originally posted by thunderbird1245 View Post
                          1. MINNESOTA WILL FINALLY COMPLETE A TRADE FOR KEVIN GARNETT.

                          I predict it will be to Golden State. Something like Al Harrington, Monta Ellis, Patrick O'bryant, and Brandon Wright for Kevin Garnett. Minnesota also will likely make Golden State take back a bad contract also, probably Marko Jaric. Golden State's trade of Jason Richardson to Charlotte helps clear room (and gave them a 10 million trade exception) to make a major move for a title before Nellie hangs it up.
                          makes sense...except for why garnett would want to play in oakland. but its sunny and with baron and sjax still there i suppose it could be attractive enough.

                          2. SEATTLE WILL HIRE DWAYNE CASEY AS HEAD COACH.

                          Casey is a former assistant there, and will get a second chance after being screwed over in Minnesota. New GM Sam Presti will opt for the easy going Casey over P.J. Carlesimo.
                          probably

                          3. SEATTLE WILL SIGN AND TRADE RASHARD LEWIS TO NEW YORK.

                          Isiah is overly enamored with Lewis, and is likely to spend some more money to sign the overrated forward, who will at least be a compliment to New York's post oriented offense. Seattle natives Jamal Crawford and Nate Robinson are likely included, maybe David Lee as well.
                          new york, orlando and houston seem to be most likely.

                          4. SEATTLE WILL TRADE LUKE RIDNOUR SOMEWHERE.

                          Ridnour is expendable to Seattle after acquiring Delonte West. Ridnour might make sense for the Clippers, who need a pass first type point guard still. Quinton Ross (a player I want the Pacers to acquire big time) makes alot of sense to be dealt to Seattle in a Ridnour deal. This would be a small deal that would really help both teams.
                          probably.

                          5. THE LAKERS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MAKE A DEAL TO HELP KOBE, AND WILL FINALLY TRADE HIM TO CHARLOTTE.

                          This could go on past Sept 1 and come right up to the deadline to training camp. My best guess is that Kobe ends up in..........Charlotte.
                          The Lakers will make this deal in the hope of being able to clear cap room to acquire someone in the LeBron/Wade/Carmelo/Bosh class to pair along with Andrew Bynum in the future. Something like Okeafor, Morrison, Richardson, and a future number one pick might get it done.
                          why does kobe and his trade kicker agree to go to the cheapest owner in the league? kobe is in a championship bound situation playing alongside sean may and walter hermann? this doesnt make any sense.

                          6. DALLAS WILL STAND PAT AND SEE WHAT HAPPENS.

                          They know they are close, and will likely stay with what they have and hope the continuity and chemistry helps them regain their dominance, and hopefully their confidence and swagger.
                          i think they might make a move for a SF... most fans (and i think management might agree) that howard is better at the SG than SF... and so a choice might need to be made between harris and terry. if they could deal terry for a SF (maybe to Indiana in a 3-way with the Nets for Jefferson) they'd probably do it.

                          7. MIAMI WILL INDEED ROLL THE DICE AND TRADE FOR RON ARTEST.

                          Sacramento's new staff would be well served to rid themselves of Artest, and I think the Maloof's know it to. Miami is desperate to make another run before Shaq retires, and Riley is willing to gamble. Artest's asking price is likely to be pretty low.
                          seems likely, i don't think their tradeable parts are as interesting to seattle (who will most likely S&T). i would think artest or bonzi wells would be at the top of their list (S&T posey for artest?)

                          8. MEMPHIS WILL NOT FIND A TAKER FOR PAO GASOL, AND WILL WAIT UNTIL MID SEASON TO MAKE A DEAL.

                          New GM Chris Wallace will evaluate his team slowly before making any rash decisions, and Gasol needs to prove he is good enough to be a difference maker before anyone will pay a high price for him.
                          i still think the lakers could make a run for him. but apart from that i don't know what other teams are interested or have the pieces to get him.

                          9. SAN ANTONIO WILL SIGN SG MORRIS PETERSON AS A FREE AGENT.

                          Mo Pete is a tough minded durable shooter who is likely to come cheap, and seems like a good pickup for the always clever defending champs.
                          i assume you think this will happen because of trading barry for foster? otherwise why do they need him? with manu, finley, bowen and barry...

                          10. OTHER FREE AGENTS OF NOTE: MO WILLIAMS WILL SIGN WITH HOUSTON, GERALD WALLACE WILL SIGN WITH ORLANDO, CHAUNCEY BILLUPS WILL RE-SIGN WITH DETROIT, DARKO MILECIC WILL SIGN WITH WASHINGTON.
                          whoa... why darko with washington? and where will houston be trading head, alston and/or james to make room for mo williams?

                          Now, for the Pacers version of this prediction thread:

                          1. THE PACERS WILL MAKE NO MOVES THAT RAISE THEIR PAYROLL FOR 2007-2008.

                          Any future moves I feel this summer will be made in mind to reduce our costs. I believe, although we will never know, that this has been mandated by ownership. For a while the Pacers had a very high payroll....I think those days are likely over.
                          unless they can figure out how to turn murphy, quis, shawne and future picks into kobe, tmac or joe johnson then i agree.

                          2. DONNIE WALSH WILL ANNOUNCE THAT 2007-2008 WILL OFFICIALLY BE HIS LAST.

                          This isnt exactly breaking news, but I think the days of Donnie are numbered. I don't think he will want to be in charge of a team that is obviously not competitive, and I think he will feel that it's time to move on while his largely successful reputation is intact. A "rebuilding" effort will begin with the moves I predict will be made below, and Donnie will not want to stay on for that long process.
                          maybe... he keeps hanging on though...

                          3. RUMBLINGS WILL START TO BE HEARD ABOUT THE SIMON BROTHERS, AND THE STATUS OF THEIR OWNERSHIP.

                          The brothers are getting older, and the franchise is pretty far away from a championship. Im not sure what exactly will happen, whether it will be looking for a buyer, or a transition to one of their sons, but I think it's likely for a transition period to begin soon in some form or fashion.
                          what jayredd said

                          4. THE PACERS WILL TRADE JEFF FOSTER TO SAN ANTONIO FOR BRENT BARRY AND A 2ND ROUND PICK.

                          There may be some other small components of this deal, but I think this will be the basic premise. Foster is a San Antonio native and sees to be an ideal Popovich type player, and a good chemistry guy for the champs. If they sign Mo Pete as I suspect, they'll have no need for Barry. For us, we get a future pick, save some money, and get a good shooter with an expiring deal. Foster doesnt seem like a very good fit for either Jim O'Briens style of offense or Dick Harter's defense, at least to me. I also think the Pacers think highly of Jeff as a person and would like to steer him to a place he'd be happy and successful, and San Antonio is a perfect fit for him.
                          hopefully it'll be more like barry, splitter and a 2nd for foster. (i say splitter because we need more tall euros for when we have a roster totally made up of tall euros... lorbeck-splitter-stanko will be the best backcourt combo in the league for the 2012 season, you heard it here first...)

                          5. INDIANA WILL FINALLY PULL THE TRIGGER ON A JERMAINE O'NEAL TRADE IN A THREE WAY DEAL INVOLVING CHICAGO AND PHEONIX.

                          Indiana outgoing: Jermaine O'Neal, Marquis Daniels.
                          Indiana incoming: Kurt Thomas, Thabo Sefalosha, Ben Gordon, Shawn Marion, Atlanta's 2008 number one pick.

                          Pheonix outgoing: Kurt Thomas, Shawn Marion, Atlanta's number one pick in 2008.
                          Pheonix incoming: PJ Brown, Tyrus Thomas, Marquis Daniels, Chris Duhon

                          Chicago incoming: Jermaine ONeal, Marcus Banks
                          Chicago outgoing: Tyrus Thomas, Thabo Sefalosha, Chris Duhon, Ben Gordon (thanks, I forgot to add him here originally) and a signed and traded PJ Brown to a large enough one year deal to make the numbers work.
                          the kurt for pj thing doesn't make sense. i see a re-signed nocioni making more sense to the suns (obviously will be less than marion) and then thomas, quis and duhon

                          i can't see chicago giving up sefolosha. more like griffin, which given his perimeter defense and gordon's lack, would be fine with me and instead of kurt, we get the S&T pj

                          the problem with the trade for us is that gordon is going to need an extension. probably not a major problem if we want to keep because we'll probably only be renting marion for the year before he opts out. the problem occurs if we want to keep marion. we'll still have troy, mike and tinsleys contracts and then granger and diogu will be needing extensions soon after. but adding gordon and marion to the pacers would definitely get us into the playoffs. probaly not ECF material but easily competitive with teams like washington, boston and probably cleveland.

                          bulls would have a lineup of
                          hinrich / sefolosha / deng / o'neal / wallace
                          (banks, noah off the bench)

                          suns
                          nash / bell / nocioni / diaw / stoudamire
                          (duhon, barbosa, quis off the bench)

                          pacers
                          tinsley / gordon / granger / marion / brown
                          (dunleavy, williams, diogu, griffin, murphy off the bench)

                          6. INDIANA WILL FIND NO TAKERS FOR JAMAL TINSLEY, MUCH TO THE CHAGRIN OF JIM O'BRIEN ALL SEASON LONG.

                          I do not see Coach O'Brien liking Tinsley's game and lack of a perimeter shot. I don't see Tinsley responding well to the intense coaching of Dick Harter and Jim O'Brien, particularly the intesne hard practices O'Brien is known for. However, for inexplicable reasons Tinsley seems to have a fan in Larry Bird, and will remain in Indiana at least one more season.
                          sigh

                          7. THE PACERS WILL TRY AND MOVE MIKE DUNLEAVY TO THE CLIPPERS TO PLAY FOR HIS DAD, BUT WON'T BE ABLE TO DO SO BEFORE THE SEASON.

                          A deal with LA Clippers seems to be the best matchup for us in alot of ways, but the Clips are extraordinarily hard to deal with usually. Something like Dunleavy for Mobley will be discussed, but probably won't happen.
                          i wish i wish i wish i wish we could trade murphy before dunleavy. i actually like dunleavy quite a bit. a deal though i would do given our glut at SF and our need for $$$ room in possibly re-signing gordon and marion (by the proposed trade) would be sam cassell, 2008 First for dunleavy. the clips might be into it if they're moving maggette.

                          8. THIS WILL BE THE LAST SEASON FOR SLICK LEONARD AND MARK BOYLE AS THE RADIO TEAM LOCALLY.

                          I hope this prediction isnt true, but I can see it happening. Slick is getting older, and I can see him becoming weary of the travel and the losing, and I can see the team becoming weary of his pointed criticisms on air. I thought Mark seemed bored honestly on the air last season, and might be in need of a new challenge, and a bigger market. Let's hope I'm wrong about this one.
                          can't really speak to that, i'll take your word for it

                          OK, that is my list of what is going to happen in the next 90 days. Make your predictions in this thread, and we can review sometime in October or so and see how close any of us came.
                          maybe later, right now i'm too lazy to think of my own but just inspired enough to talk about yours
                          Last edited by avoidingtheclowns; 07-02-2007, 01:00 AM.
                          This is the darkest timeline.

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                          • #28
                            Re: Tbird analysis: NBA offseason predictions

                            Originally posted by Naptown_Seth View Post
                            Can't happen anyway. I mean the MLE is it, they can't even trade their way under the cap right now. And no "signficant" fa is found for the MLE, I mean that's why it's the MLE - you get a "mid-level" player for it.

                            So of course they won't increase their cap number for the most part, but they almost certainly have to increase it a tiny bit with at least part of the MLE simply to fill out 12 contracts ready to play this fall...barring a monster trade of course.
                            i guess my threshold for "significant" is lower than yours... i would have considered kapono significant if we had been able to get him. raptors offered him the full mle for 4 years, which i think we wouldn't have done.

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