Hello all. This is my official 2017 NBA Draft Pacer-Centric Big Board for this year.
Before I list the players in my particular order, let me make some comments about the list. First, I have not included any players that played overseas last year. I just simply lack the access to the volume of film work I want on those players in the time allowed. Most likely, some of those guys would have clearly made my list somewhere, but without the sufficient film study on them, I am not going to include them. If we end up with one of the overseas players, I’ll make more of an effort, and put something together in the days following the draft for all of you.I made a mistake a few years ago when I tried to guess about Porzingis without putting in the time it took for a full study, and I will never do that again.
Next, I have no access to medical records, personality tests, psycholigical exams, private workouts, etc etc. This is all based on film work plus research and analytics. You’ll see that I have, based on the research, eliminated some players based on character or medicals from my board. The Pacers and other teams will have much more information than I have about such things, so they may, and likely will, make different decisions about such things as I do here.
Also, I think big boards you read in the media are somewhat useful, but I don’t really understand how you rate them with that amount of certainty without having a specific team in mind to rate them for. Fit, coaching strengths and weaknesses, scheme, other roster construction, situation in time….all of those things have to at least factor into rankings, in my mind. In this big board, I’ll have certain players ranked higher or lower than you may see other places, based on those factors as I see them pertaining to Indiana. If I were analyzing for another franchise, my board with obviously be slightly different.
Lastly, obviously really smart people can totally disagree with my board, and that is fine. These are totally my opinions only. This isn’t a mock, and I am not trying to make predictions about other teams or anything else. I may do a mock tomorrow (they are generally fun to write about but basically also worthless), but this is not a mock. I have no motivation here other than to rank players, in the order I would want them, as a Pacers fan who has making our team an eventual champion as a goal. This isn’t for “clicks” or money, or advertising, or anything else….it’s just as I see it.
With all of that said, here is my Pacers draft “big board” for 2017….with commentary as warranted.
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Off my board:
Harry Giles---injury red flag. 3 serious knee injuries at this young age, plus pretty bad tape last year, plus some reported mental issues about getting over the injuries and the rehab process. The final straw for me was finding out that (supposedly) his camp was refusing to share medical records with teams. I may be all wet, but he is an easy pass for me. I doubt he makes to #18 anyway.
Edward Somner---injury red flag. I would have had him likely as a draftable second rounder, or at least in the running for it. Knee and other injury history makes me queasy.
Damyean Dotson-----character red flag. His history is well reported. My personal tolerance for this issue is nonexistent and consistent, and I realize I may be too harsh in judgment, but that’s me. I had Lance Stephenson off my board years ago as well, so I am consistent at least. I don’t think his talent merits any benefit of the doubt.
Cameron Oliver----character red flag. This is more from personal information I was able to get, and from a general dislike of his body language and playing style on film. If I were actually with a franchise, I would have investigated him further and in more detail. For now, without being specific, I am going to pass. Yes, I do realize some of you like him, and that he has lots of fans in the media world. I am prepared to be proven wrong if need be.
Along with those 4 not being listed, I have eliminated, due to lack of film study, the following players:
Mathias Lessort
Isaiah Hartenstein
Jonah Bolden
Anzejs Pasecniks
Frank Ntilkina
Vlatko Cancar
Aleksander Vezenkov
Wesley De Silva
Terence Ferguson
Ognjen Jaramaz.
If I forgot to mention anyone else from outside the continental United States, you can include them on the “no draft” list as well.
With those 14 guys being eliminated from my board consideration, I have 38 players listed as draftable players who I think can play in the league….yes, I realize the draft has 60 picks.
Here is my rundown of those 38 players, in order of how I rank them for Indiana.
#1 Markelle Fultz…...I think he is a bigger Damion Lillard with more D.
#2 Jonathan Isaac….I love him. He’s only 19. Looks like Paul George, except better at that age. Floor is a bigger Iguodala, but he will be better than that I am almost sure. He will fill out and become a monster.
#3 Jayson Tatum….high floor. His comp is Danny Granger. Bucket getter extraordinaire….can get you 20pts a night eventually.
#4 De’Aaron Fox….love him except for his jumper. He is a little risky, because to be elite PG’s have to score these days and stretch the defense. I believe in the kid and the character though. Love his speed and defense at the point of attack.
#5 Josh Jackson…..going to be a 2 way really good player. Ceiling is Jimmy Butler if he reaches it. Some character concern admittedly, still for us he fits here.
#6 Lonzo Ball….he will go #2 most likely, but for us I rank him here. I worry about his inability to get his own shot, and a lack of wiggle in his dribble game. I don’t think he can make shots off the bounce going to his right with that shooting form. But man, he will be fun to play with, and is an absolute ELITE passer, great vision. I prefer in general more defensive point guards than he is, but he is going to be a force multiplier type in LA, and other great players want to play with a guy like that.
#7 OG Anunoby….absolute beast athletically, assuming he comes back strong from the knee injury in college. I believe he has given his medical history to teams, unlike Giles. Unbelievable potential is an absolute lockdown monster, and can switch from positions 1-4. I also think he can play some small ball 5 on occasion with creative coaching. In general, I think he is likely a 4 on offense, but you can literally play him with such a wide variety of players it’s unreal. All NBA type defender, I think he has some offensive upside yet to be untapped too. Still just 19 years old on draft night. I think he can be Ron Artest level impact on the game, maybe more even if some offense comes. Worst case he is a bigger Tony Allen, but he already shoots better than Allen.
#8 Donovan Mitchell…...Tough as nails, athletic as hell, super long defender. I love his personality better than almost anyone in this draft. His game will come eventually, he gets it. I think he is basically Avery Bradley. Not really a pure anything exactly, but you can go to war with guys like this and win.
#9 Malik Monk….I see him as a one way scorer, with potential to grow from that. Lack of length is a small concern, but he can clearly shoot the ball, and it’s a shooters game right now. I see some Vinnie Johnson to him. He is likely a starter or top bench guy on a good team.
#10 Dennis Smith…..I view him as a 1 way scorer, not alot of defense there on tape….really good off the dribble scorer who can get his own. Might be underrated by me and others. Wish he was a hair bigger, but he can really score, and he wants to score. Not sure he makes his teammates better, not sure about his body language on the floor. I think he is a score first, maybe score only, point guard and those don’t really suit my eye, but the talent is there. Length can hurt him, not sure if he isn’t scoring if he helps you much. Not sure he’d be much fun to play with. He reminds me of Steve Francis a little bit.
#11 Luke Kennard….I think he is mostly a offensive minded player, you’ll have to hide him defensively a little...great shooter though, and he is a playmaker with the ball when he isn’t scoring himself. There is some Ginobili to his game, a certain offensive creativity that is fun to watch, plus 2 guards are the scarcest resource in the NBA right now.
#12 Lauri Markannen….Mostly an offensive player only, but he is an elite offensive perimeter big on tape. He will need to play with a big man who is a rebounding and defensive specialist in order to reach his potential, which at the moment doesn’t exist here…..but who knows what Turner will turn into for sure yet? I don’t love him or love the fit, could easily turn into Mirotic or Bargnani if he isn’t coached well and surrounded with the right kind of players around him. Still, the offensive talent is undeniable. He’d be a nice fit in Orlando, playing next to Biyombo actually, and in Sacramento playing next to Cauley-Stein…..he needs to end up next to guys like that.
#13 Justin Jackson….I see him as a big 2 guard, if used that way I think he can be a long time NBA player. Has some Mike Dunleavy traits, maybe some Danny Green, maybe some Matt Barnes. Not a premier guy, but he can play on good teams and make open shots, and he is smart as hell on both ends.
#14 D.J. Wilson….easiest comp in the draft...he is Tobias Harris. I think if ends up the right place he will be on the all rookie team next year. He is ready to be who he is, which is a small ball 4 on a team with a big time, low post center. Perfect fit for a team with Dwight Howard, or Andre Drummond, or someone like that. Stan Van Gundy should take him and turn him into Rashard Lewis, who he had in Orlando. Wilson does everything well except play with physicalness and rebound….he plays soft as cotton vs contact.
#15 Derrick White….love the kid, love the player. Pretty close in skill level to Kennard actually, just not quite as good a shooter projecting ahead. He will help your team score, high level passer, super smart, makes shots, plays the right way. Not going to be a sieve on defense either, I think he will mostly hold his own vs 1s and 2s. Great story too.
#16 Semi Ojeleye….high character, 3 and D guy. High floor, low ceiling. Built like he was chiseled out of stone.
#17 Ivan Rabb….has some Greg Monroe to him, who I liked coming out of college but probably overrated at the time. Fits here because he is an absolute rebounding machine, and we need that with Turner. Can finish with both hands around the basket, in fact he is almost confused which hand to use sometimes. Blocks shots with both hands too, which I love. High IQ kid. Might be a 4 on offense, and a 5 on defense, but no matter what he is an elite board guy. I think he can play next to Turner in some lineups. Still very young.
#18 Johnathon Motley…..very long, modern 4 man on D, very well rounded and mature. Good shooter to 17 feet, will need to expand that to be a starting level player. Love his measurables, and I think he is a good fit long term next to Turner.
#19 Bam Adebayo…..freak athlete, very very raw, pretty much a dive man/screener on offense only at this point….kind of has some Dale Davis to him, except this isn’t the 90’s so it isn’t as valuable now….long term, he is such a moldable piece that I think he MIGHT be able to play with Turner, if Turner becomes more of a 4 man instead of a 5…..very young. No moves to speak of at this point. I think he is Montrezl Harrell, but if you are optimistic you might see him as Tristan Thompson, but bigger.
#20 Tony Bradley….he is raw similar to Adebayo but not quite as physical, yet more skilled at this point. Going to be an A plus rebounder…..young and athletic enough that he MIGHT be able to play with Turner some.
#21 T.J. Leaf…..he is Ryan Anderson, but a little tougher and little more versatile offensively. Fits the modern game well, but not a great fit next to Turner. I think he fits better with a more physical center next to him and surrounded by better defenders….he can make shots and run the floor, but not a good defender. He’d be interesting in New Orleans for when they stagger the minutes of Davis and Cousins….for him, I hope he ends up there somehow.
#22 John Collins...skilled offensively from 17 feet and in. Might be the worst defensive player I have ever seen though. Pitiful effort and technique defensively. Too skilled to rank any lower though, and he has utility as an off the bench scorer for your second unit, and if he is a bench guy you can hide him on non scoring bigs. Any smart team will just run him off the floor if they can though. Really good rebounder and offensive technician. He has some Al Jefferson to his game.
#23 Caleb Swanigan….high character, non rim protecting 5 man. He can play with Turner offensively, but on defense we’d get torched, so he ranks here. Some concerns about his weight still, but he is productive and skilled, and can make open face up shots. Like Collins, he can score with your second unit, but he is a 5 man instead of a 4. Positional rebounder, below the rim type, very strong with great hands. Gonna be tough to find him guys to guard though vs NBA starters, so I think he is a bench guy. Jered Sullinger comp, maybe better than that but we will see.
#24 Zach Collins…..yes I know I have him ranked lower than the rest of the free world. To me with us he is a back up center only though, as I don’t see the ability for him and Turner to ever play together. Very active, but raw and foul prone. Didn’t even start for his high school team, let alone his college team. I also think centers are becoming easier to find, so I don’t value them as highly.
#25 Justin Patton….again, I know I have him lower than most. I see just a backup center for us, as he can’t play with Turner in the modern NBA game. Still, a cheap back up center isn’t a bad thing I guess. I think he has some potential but he is raw and will take time to develop.
#26 Jarrett Allen….super raw, but super long. Again, he can’t appear on the floor with Turner, so he is a back up center prospect only in my ranking. I wasn’t impressed with his tape, but he is so young, and bigs take time usually. Very slow, kind of soft I thought watching him play, but ask me again in 4 years.
#27 Ike Anigbogu…..even more raw than Allen, but young and highly intelligent. I ranked him here because of injury concerns I have, I didn’t take him off my board but he does have a history to worry about. He is 3 years away from being able to help you I think, but he MIGHT be able to play with Turner someday. I do see some skill here, but it is a long way down the road.
#28 Kyle Kuzma….right now, Kuzma looks good in pieces, and has alot of potential….but man is he raw. Love the body type, love the possibilities, but the production isn’t there. You have the ingredients, but the cake isn’t made yet and I don’t know if it will be. He is the kind of gamble though that we should consider making a play for in buying an extra pick or moving up slightly in the 2nd round, because of what he COULD become, not what he is. Right now, he can barely play...but he will look better in the more spread out NBA I think. He’d be a guy I consider trying to get an extra pick to get in round 2, maybe even late #1. He is a long 3 or small ball 4, not a great fit here currently, but this would be a longer range play. He can be a starter in this league if everything comes together for him, but it’s not a sure thing by any means.
#29 Davon Reed…..No risk here, I think he is a sure bet as a 3/D wing guy. Smart, tough, well coached, defends his butt off, makes open 3 pointers, has a strong NBA physique. Can give you some small ball 4 minutes in places. Glue guy, coachable. Jim Larranaga was his college coach, and his son Jay is on the Celtics staff….so watch out for Boston here. I’d move up to get Reed in the late first/early 2nd area if I could. Higher floor than Kuzma, just not as high a ceiling. He will play 8 years or more in the league.
#30 Taylor Dorsey…..has one elite skill, which is as a shooter. Knockdown sniper as a deep shooter. No in between game at all, can’t really drive it much, totally assassin from deep. Small for his position as a 2 guard, might have to hide him on point guards. Profiles as an instant offense, small doses, bucket getter from deep. Think about Craig Hodges, Steve Kerr, Eddie House, Flip Murray...those type of guys. Fun to watch play.
#31 Sterling Brown….similar type of 3/D guy as Reed, just not quite as good. He is solid, well taught. Has to continue to improve to get to Reed’s consistency level shooting it. See no reason why he can’t, but we will see. Worth a small trade up to get him in round 2.
#32 Jordan Bell…..talent is there. Plays hard 99% of the time, but has some inexplicable brain farts. PF type, has some ability in ballscreen game as a short roll creator. Pursues blocks and rebounds like they are going out of style. You can find tape where he dominates the game, and you can find tape where he vanishes. Hates to block out, just chases the ball and jumps for it….that trait may have cost his team the NCAA championship game at the end. Still, high character guy, experienced….wish he was better. Worth a small trade up to get him in the 2nd round.
#33 Juwan Evans….he’ll go higher than this, but I have him here. Smallish point guards generally aren’t my thing. I do think he can stick as a backup PG, and definitely on our team as a 3rd point guard replacing what we have now. Not an elite anything at his size makes him a backup, change of pace guy to me. He sticks in the league though no question if he gets the right landing spot. I would NOT move up to get him probably, but might if the price is low.
#34 Dwayne Bacon…..he loves to score! Shooting guard/wing type, irrational confidence guy. Has an NBA mentality as a scorer. I’d like to have him actually, but he needs to time to develop his skills quite a bit. Might be a good guy to draft, play him in the G league every game for 2 years, and see if you can turn him into something in your developmental program. I would NOT move up to get him unless the price was very low. He has a chance to stick in the league eventually, might even be better than that just due to the swagger he has. Marketing would love the Tshirt opportunities too, plus the “Bacon” memes would be funny.
#35 Frank Jackson….very much a long term, smallish 2 guard/combo guard project. He has some game, and is just 19 years old I think. Smart kid, lacks any one real skill at this point to make it, but give him 3 years and then re-evaluate. He will be in the G league.
#36 Tyler Lydon…..he makes it as an end of the bench, designated shooter type. I think he will be able to make the corner 3, but who can he guard? Not a bunch of upside here, but he can survive a few years as an 11th or 12th man someplace.
#37 Josh Hart….high character smallish wing guy with a winning pedigree. No real NBA top notch trait other than toughness and fight at this point, but he will make someone’s team, and probably ours, as an 11th or 12th man type. Looks good in a press release when you sign/draft him too, very accomplished player in college.
#38 Frank Mason….smallish shooting guard in a point guards body. He will be somebody’s 3rd point guard, maybe ours, if we draft him. High character, played in big games and excelled, smart, somebody will take him around our pick, maybe earlier even.
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There you have it. Those are the players I believe would make our team if they ended up in Indiana with our franchise.
There are other players who I believe could make other teams, like Sindarius Thornwell, Wesley Iwundu, Dillon Brooks, and a few more…..but I think they get cut in Indiana, based on what I know now.
As far as to who I would select at #18, the answer is easy…. I would just follow and trust my board. Wherever I’d pick, I’d just take the highest rated player at that time.
Keeping in mind I took 14 players off my board due to lack of tape, character, or injury concerns, I ranked the players I did extensive scouting reports on like this:
#1 OG Anunoby (7th overall)
#2 Donovan Mitchell (8th overall)
#3 Luke Kennard (11th overall)
#4 Justin Jackson (13th overall)
#5 Derrick White (15th overall)
#6 Semi Ojeleye (16th overall)
#7 Bam Adebayo (19th overall)
#8 T.J. Leaf (21st overall)
#9 John Collins (22nd overall)
#10 Ike Anigbogu (27th overall)
Ok, so the board is set, and the start of the 2017 draft is about 30 hours away. Rumors are already flying all over the place, so brace yourself, this is potentially going to be a franchise altering couple of days, with the draft process and pressure being a big part of it.
Tbird
Before I list the players in my particular order, let me make some comments about the list. First, I have not included any players that played overseas last year. I just simply lack the access to the volume of film work I want on those players in the time allowed. Most likely, some of those guys would have clearly made my list somewhere, but without the sufficient film study on them, I am not going to include them. If we end up with one of the overseas players, I’ll make more of an effort, and put something together in the days following the draft for all of you.I made a mistake a few years ago when I tried to guess about Porzingis without putting in the time it took for a full study, and I will never do that again.
Next, I have no access to medical records, personality tests, psycholigical exams, private workouts, etc etc. This is all based on film work plus research and analytics. You’ll see that I have, based on the research, eliminated some players based on character or medicals from my board. The Pacers and other teams will have much more information than I have about such things, so they may, and likely will, make different decisions about such things as I do here.
Also, I think big boards you read in the media are somewhat useful, but I don’t really understand how you rate them with that amount of certainty without having a specific team in mind to rate them for. Fit, coaching strengths and weaknesses, scheme, other roster construction, situation in time….all of those things have to at least factor into rankings, in my mind. In this big board, I’ll have certain players ranked higher or lower than you may see other places, based on those factors as I see them pertaining to Indiana. If I were analyzing for another franchise, my board with obviously be slightly different.
Lastly, obviously really smart people can totally disagree with my board, and that is fine. These are totally my opinions only. This isn’t a mock, and I am not trying to make predictions about other teams or anything else. I may do a mock tomorrow (they are generally fun to write about but basically also worthless), but this is not a mock. I have no motivation here other than to rank players, in the order I would want them, as a Pacers fan who has making our team an eventual champion as a goal. This isn’t for “clicks” or money, or advertising, or anything else….it’s just as I see it.
With all of that said, here is my Pacers draft “big board” for 2017….with commentary as warranted.
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Off my board:
Harry Giles---injury red flag. 3 serious knee injuries at this young age, plus pretty bad tape last year, plus some reported mental issues about getting over the injuries and the rehab process. The final straw for me was finding out that (supposedly) his camp was refusing to share medical records with teams. I may be all wet, but he is an easy pass for me. I doubt he makes to #18 anyway.
Edward Somner---injury red flag. I would have had him likely as a draftable second rounder, or at least in the running for it. Knee and other injury history makes me queasy.
Damyean Dotson-----character red flag. His history is well reported. My personal tolerance for this issue is nonexistent and consistent, and I realize I may be too harsh in judgment, but that’s me. I had Lance Stephenson off my board years ago as well, so I am consistent at least. I don’t think his talent merits any benefit of the doubt.
Cameron Oliver----character red flag. This is more from personal information I was able to get, and from a general dislike of his body language and playing style on film. If I were actually with a franchise, I would have investigated him further and in more detail. For now, without being specific, I am going to pass. Yes, I do realize some of you like him, and that he has lots of fans in the media world. I am prepared to be proven wrong if need be.
Along with those 4 not being listed, I have eliminated, due to lack of film study, the following players:
Mathias Lessort
Isaiah Hartenstein
Jonah Bolden
Anzejs Pasecniks
Frank Ntilkina
Vlatko Cancar
Aleksander Vezenkov
Wesley De Silva
Terence Ferguson
Ognjen Jaramaz.
If I forgot to mention anyone else from outside the continental United States, you can include them on the “no draft” list as well.
With those 14 guys being eliminated from my board consideration, I have 38 players listed as draftable players who I think can play in the league….yes, I realize the draft has 60 picks.
Here is my rundown of those 38 players, in order of how I rank them for Indiana.
#1 Markelle Fultz…...I think he is a bigger Damion Lillard with more D.
#2 Jonathan Isaac….I love him. He’s only 19. Looks like Paul George, except better at that age. Floor is a bigger Iguodala, but he will be better than that I am almost sure. He will fill out and become a monster.
#3 Jayson Tatum….high floor. His comp is Danny Granger. Bucket getter extraordinaire….can get you 20pts a night eventually.
#4 De’Aaron Fox….love him except for his jumper. He is a little risky, because to be elite PG’s have to score these days and stretch the defense. I believe in the kid and the character though. Love his speed and defense at the point of attack.
#5 Josh Jackson…..going to be a 2 way really good player. Ceiling is Jimmy Butler if he reaches it. Some character concern admittedly, still for us he fits here.
#6 Lonzo Ball….he will go #2 most likely, but for us I rank him here. I worry about his inability to get his own shot, and a lack of wiggle in his dribble game. I don’t think he can make shots off the bounce going to his right with that shooting form. But man, he will be fun to play with, and is an absolute ELITE passer, great vision. I prefer in general more defensive point guards than he is, but he is going to be a force multiplier type in LA, and other great players want to play with a guy like that.
#7 OG Anunoby….absolute beast athletically, assuming he comes back strong from the knee injury in college. I believe he has given his medical history to teams, unlike Giles. Unbelievable potential is an absolute lockdown monster, and can switch from positions 1-4. I also think he can play some small ball 5 on occasion with creative coaching. In general, I think he is likely a 4 on offense, but you can literally play him with such a wide variety of players it’s unreal. All NBA type defender, I think he has some offensive upside yet to be untapped too. Still just 19 years old on draft night. I think he can be Ron Artest level impact on the game, maybe more even if some offense comes. Worst case he is a bigger Tony Allen, but he already shoots better than Allen.
#8 Donovan Mitchell…...Tough as nails, athletic as hell, super long defender. I love his personality better than almost anyone in this draft. His game will come eventually, he gets it. I think he is basically Avery Bradley. Not really a pure anything exactly, but you can go to war with guys like this and win.
#9 Malik Monk….I see him as a one way scorer, with potential to grow from that. Lack of length is a small concern, but he can clearly shoot the ball, and it’s a shooters game right now. I see some Vinnie Johnson to him. He is likely a starter or top bench guy on a good team.
#10 Dennis Smith…..I view him as a 1 way scorer, not alot of defense there on tape….really good off the dribble scorer who can get his own. Might be underrated by me and others. Wish he was a hair bigger, but he can really score, and he wants to score. Not sure he makes his teammates better, not sure about his body language on the floor. I think he is a score first, maybe score only, point guard and those don’t really suit my eye, but the talent is there. Length can hurt him, not sure if he isn’t scoring if he helps you much. Not sure he’d be much fun to play with. He reminds me of Steve Francis a little bit.
#11 Luke Kennard….I think he is mostly a offensive minded player, you’ll have to hide him defensively a little...great shooter though, and he is a playmaker with the ball when he isn’t scoring himself. There is some Ginobili to his game, a certain offensive creativity that is fun to watch, plus 2 guards are the scarcest resource in the NBA right now.
#12 Lauri Markannen….Mostly an offensive player only, but he is an elite offensive perimeter big on tape. He will need to play with a big man who is a rebounding and defensive specialist in order to reach his potential, which at the moment doesn’t exist here…..but who knows what Turner will turn into for sure yet? I don’t love him or love the fit, could easily turn into Mirotic or Bargnani if he isn’t coached well and surrounded with the right kind of players around him. Still, the offensive talent is undeniable. He’d be a nice fit in Orlando, playing next to Biyombo actually, and in Sacramento playing next to Cauley-Stein…..he needs to end up next to guys like that.
#13 Justin Jackson….I see him as a big 2 guard, if used that way I think he can be a long time NBA player. Has some Mike Dunleavy traits, maybe some Danny Green, maybe some Matt Barnes. Not a premier guy, but he can play on good teams and make open shots, and he is smart as hell on both ends.
#14 D.J. Wilson….easiest comp in the draft...he is Tobias Harris. I think if ends up the right place he will be on the all rookie team next year. He is ready to be who he is, which is a small ball 4 on a team with a big time, low post center. Perfect fit for a team with Dwight Howard, or Andre Drummond, or someone like that. Stan Van Gundy should take him and turn him into Rashard Lewis, who he had in Orlando. Wilson does everything well except play with physicalness and rebound….he plays soft as cotton vs contact.
#15 Derrick White….love the kid, love the player. Pretty close in skill level to Kennard actually, just not quite as good a shooter projecting ahead. He will help your team score, high level passer, super smart, makes shots, plays the right way. Not going to be a sieve on defense either, I think he will mostly hold his own vs 1s and 2s. Great story too.
#16 Semi Ojeleye….high character, 3 and D guy. High floor, low ceiling. Built like he was chiseled out of stone.
#17 Ivan Rabb….has some Greg Monroe to him, who I liked coming out of college but probably overrated at the time. Fits here because he is an absolute rebounding machine, and we need that with Turner. Can finish with both hands around the basket, in fact he is almost confused which hand to use sometimes. Blocks shots with both hands too, which I love. High IQ kid. Might be a 4 on offense, and a 5 on defense, but no matter what he is an elite board guy. I think he can play next to Turner in some lineups. Still very young.
#18 Johnathon Motley…..very long, modern 4 man on D, very well rounded and mature. Good shooter to 17 feet, will need to expand that to be a starting level player. Love his measurables, and I think he is a good fit long term next to Turner.
#19 Bam Adebayo…..freak athlete, very very raw, pretty much a dive man/screener on offense only at this point….kind of has some Dale Davis to him, except this isn’t the 90’s so it isn’t as valuable now….long term, he is such a moldable piece that I think he MIGHT be able to play with Turner, if Turner becomes more of a 4 man instead of a 5…..very young. No moves to speak of at this point. I think he is Montrezl Harrell, but if you are optimistic you might see him as Tristan Thompson, but bigger.
#20 Tony Bradley….he is raw similar to Adebayo but not quite as physical, yet more skilled at this point. Going to be an A plus rebounder…..young and athletic enough that he MIGHT be able to play with Turner some.
#21 T.J. Leaf…..he is Ryan Anderson, but a little tougher and little more versatile offensively. Fits the modern game well, but not a great fit next to Turner. I think he fits better with a more physical center next to him and surrounded by better defenders….he can make shots and run the floor, but not a good defender. He’d be interesting in New Orleans for when they stagger the minutes of Davis and Cousins….for him, I hope he ends up there somehow.
#22 John Collins...skilled offensively from 17 feet and in. Might be the worst defensive player I have ever seen though. Pitiful effort and technique defensively. Too skilled to rank any lower though, and he has utility as an off the bench scorer for your second unit, and if he is a bench guy you can hide him on non scoring bigs. Any smart team will just run him off the floor if they can though. Really good rebounder and offensive technician. He has some Al Jefferson to his game.
#23 Caleb Swanigan….high character, non rim protecting 5 man. He can play with Turner offensively, but on defense we’d get torched, so he ranks here. Some concerns about his weight still, but he is productive and skilled, and can make open face up shots. Like Collins, he can score with your second unit, but he is a 5 man instead of a 4. Positional rebounder, below the rim type, very strong with great hands. Gonna be tough to find him guys to guard though vs NBA starters, so I think he is a bench guy. Jered Sullinger comp, maybe better than that but we will see.
#24 Zach Collins…..yes I know I have him ranked lower than the rest of the free world. To me with us he is a back up center only though, as I don’t see the ability for him and Turner to ever play together. Very active, but raw and foul prone. Didn’t even start for his high school team, let alone his college team. I also think centers are becoming easier to find, so I don’t value them as highly.
#25 Justin Patton….again, I know I have him lower than most. I see just a backup center for us, as he can’t play with Turner in the modern NBA game. Still, a cheap back up center isn’t a bad thing I guess. I think he has some potential but he is raw and will take time to develop.
#26 Jarrett Allen….super raw, but super long. Again, he can’t appear on the floor with Turner, so he is a back up center prospect only in my ranking. I wasn’t impressed with his tape, but he is so young, and bigs take time usually. Very slow, kind of soft I thought watching him play, but ask me again in 4 years.
#27 Ike Anigbogu…..even more raw than Allen, but young and highly intelligent. I ranked him here because of injury concerns I have, I didn’t take him off my board but he does have a history to worry about. He is 3 years away from being able to help you I think, but he MIGHT be able to play with Turner someday. I do see some skill here, but it is a long way down the road.
#28 Kyle Kuzma….right now, Kuzma looks good in pieces, and has alot of potential….but man is he raw. Love the body type, love the possibilities, but the production isn’t there. You have the ingredients, but the cake isn’t made yet and I don’t know if it will be. He is the kind of gamble though that we should consider making a play for in buying an extra pick or moving up slightly in the 2nd round, because of what he COULD become, not what he is. Right now, he can barely play...but he will look better in the more spread out NBA I think. He’d be a guy I consider trying to get an extra pick to get in round 2, maybe even late #1. He is a long 3 or small ball 4, not a great fit here currently, but this would be a longer range play. He can be a starter in this league if everything comes together for him, but it’s not a sure thing by any means.
#29 Davon Reed…..No risk here, I think he is a sure bet as a 3/D wing guy. Smart, tough, well coached, defends his butt off, makes open 3 pointers, has a strong NBA physique. Can give you some small ball 4 minutes in places. Glue guy, coachable. Jim Larranaga was his college coach, and his son Jay is on the Celtics staff….so watch out for Boston here. I’d move up to get Reed in the late first/early 2nd area if I could. Higher floor than Kuzma, just not as high a ceiling. He will play 8 years or more in the league.
#30 Taylor Dorsey…..has one elite skill, which is as a shooter. Knockdown sniper as a deep shooter. No in between game at all, can’t really drive it much, totally assassin from deep. Small for his position as a 2 guard, might have to hide him on point guards. Profiles as an instant offense, small doses, bucket getter from deep. Think about Craig Hodges, Steve Kerr, Eddie House, Flip Murray...those type of guys. Fun to watch play.
#31 Sterling Brown….similar type of 3/D guy as Reed, just not quite as good. He is solid, well taught. Has to continue to improve to get to Reed’s consistency level shooting it. See no reason why he can’t, but we will see. Worth a small trade up to get him in round 2.
#32 Jordan Bell…..talent is there. Plays hard 99% of the time, but has some inexplicable brain farts. PF type, has some ability in ballscreen game as a short roll creator. Pursues blocks and rebounds like they are going out of style. You can find tape where he dominates the game, and you can find tape where he vanishes. Hates to block out, just chases the ball and jumps for it….that trait may have cost his team the NCAA championship game at the end. Still, high character guy, experienced….wish he was better. Worth a small trade up to get him in the 2nd round.
#33 Juwan Evans….he’ll go higher than this, but I have him here. Smallish point guards generally aren’t my thing. I do think he can stick as a backup PG, and definitely on our team as a 3rd point guard replacing what we have now. Not an elite anything at his size makes him a backup, change of pace guy to me. He sticks in the league though no question if he gets the right landing spot. I would NOT move up to get him probably, but might if the price is low.
#34 Dwayne Bacon…..he loves to score! Shooting guard/wing type, irrational confidence guy. Has an NBA mentality as a scorer. I’d like to have him actually, but he needs to time to develop his skills quite a bit. Might be a good guy to draft, play him in the G league every game for 2 years, and see if you can turn him into something in your developmental program. I would NOT move up to get him unless the price was very low. He has a chance to stick in the league eventually, might even be better than that just due to the swagger he has. Marketing would love the Tshirt opportunities too, plus the “Bacon” memes would be funny.
#35 Frank Jackson….very much a long term, smallish 2 guard/combo guard project. He has some game, and is just 19 years old I think. Smart kid, lacks any one real skill at this point to make it, but give him 3 years and then re-evaluate. He will be in the G league.
#36 Tyler Lydon…..he makes it as an end of the bench, designated shooter type. I think he will be able to make the corner 3, but who can he guard? Not a bunch of upside here, but he can survive a few years as an 11th or 12th man someplace.
#37 Josh Hart….high character smallish wing guy with a winning pedigree. No real NBA top notch trait other than toughness and fight at this point, but he will make someone’s team, and probably ours, as an 11th or 12th man type. Looks good in a press release when you sign/draft him too, very accomplished player in college.
#38 Frank Mason….smallish shooting guard in a point guards body. He will be somebody’s 3rd point guard, maybe ours, if we draft him. High character, played in big games and excelled, smart, somebody will take him around our pick, maybe earlier even.
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There you have it. Those are the players I believe would make our team if they ended up in Indiana with our franchise.
There are other players who I believe could make other teams, like Sindarius Thornwell, Wesley Iwundu, Dillon Brooks, and a few more…..but I think they get cut in Indiana, based on what I know now.
As far as to who I would select at #18, the answer is easy…. I would just follow and trust my board. Wherever I’d pick, I’d just take the highest rated player at that time.
Keeping in mind I took 14 players off my board due to lack of tape, character, or injury concerns, I ranked the players I did extensive scouting reports on like this:
#1 OG Anunoby (7th overall)
#2 Donovan Mitchell (8th overall)
#3 Luke Kennard (11th overall)
#4 Justin Jackson (13th overall)
#5 Derrick White (15th overall)
#6 Semi Ojeleye (16th overall)
#7 Bam Adebayo (19th overall)
#8 T.J. Leaf (21st overall)
#9 John Collins (22nd overall)
#10 Ike Anigbogu (27th overall)
Ok, so the board is set, and the start of the 2017 draft is about 30 hours away. Rumors are already flying all over the place, so brace yourself, this is potentially going to be a franchise altering couple of days, with the draft process and pressure being a big part of it.
Tbird
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