/ laugh at PosterX / GroupOfPeopleY who thought / believed *insert though/belief here*"
Tweet
Here on a sunny Monday just 10 days away from draft day 2016, we take a deep dive into the intriguing game of Michigan State All-American playmaker Denzel Valentine. Known as “Zel” by his teammates and friends, Valentine is the son of 2 long time Lansing educators: Kathy, a 33 year veteran of the Lansing public schools, and Carlton, an ex-Spartan who played briefly in Europe and in the WBL, before coming back to his college town and beginning a highly successful coaching career at the high school level.
Valentine becomes the 7th profile in the 2016 series. Previously, I have done in-depth profiles of Wade Baldwin IV, Taurean Prince, Domantas Sabonis, Demetrius Jackson, Stephen Zimmerman, and Ben Bentil. You can find those profiles, along with ones from previous years, elsewhere on this site.
Each prospect comes from a unique background all of their own. In Valentine’s case, he grew up in a solid family with one older brother (Drew), who played at Oakland University and was eventually a graduate assistant for the Spartans. While Drew got the coaching bug from his father (he now is an assistant college coach at Oakland University), it was Denzel who became a dynamic basketball player in high school, eventually leading his father’s team to back to back state championships at JW Sexton High School in Lansing.
Carlton Valentine, who played for the legendary high school coach Morgan Wooten at famous DeMatha High (Wooten wrote what in my mind is still the pre-eminent book about coaching basketball, in my view), was recruited to Lansing by then assistant coach Tom Izzo. Valentine maintained a strong relationship with Coach Izzo, frequently taking young Drew and Denzel to games and into the Spartan locker room through the years. Denzel grew up around the Spartan program, and was seemingly destined to be a Michigan State player from early on, and that is indeed what happened.
Being the son of Lansing and of 2 professional educators, not finishing school was never really a consideration for Denzel, so he did it the old fashioned way: by staying in school for 4 years, continuing to improve steadily and mature, all while becoming one of the most popular athletes in the history of the storied program north of our state border.
Valentine graduated in May with a degree in communications, and leaves Michigan State as the runner-up for the Wooden Award (to Buddy Hield), and as the recipient of both the Sports Illustrated and USA Today National Player of the Year Awards. In 33 minutes his senior year, Valentine averaged 19.2 ppg, 7.5rpg, and 7.8apg, making him the only player in the last 21 years to average 19/7/7 in college for a season. Clearly, Valentine comes into this draft as the most productive, well rounded and versatile offensive player available, but the questions, for those who have them, will come from his lack of athleticism and age.
Valentine turns 23 years old right as next season ramps up, as he was born on November 16, 1993. He measured in at 6’5 ¾ , with a wingspan of 6’10 ¾. A no step vertical of 27.0, and a max vertical of 32.0 was what he measured at the NBA combine.
How do those numbers, and the others I am going to present, affect his future in the NBA game? Let’s put Valentine under the microscope:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major production against big time opponents…...that is where we start.
29 pts, 12 rebounds, 12 assists vs Kansas. 29/11/10 vs Boston College. 19/14/8 vs Maryland. 27/8/10 vs Purdue. 30/5/13 vs Indiana. Those are all world numbers. But does how he got them translate to the next level?
There are about a million positive attributes to Valentine’s game, and only a few minor concerns. Let’s begin with the negatives first today, just to shake things up a bit.
First, Valentine does lack elite NBA athleticism….there is no doubt about that. Whether you think it is vital or not, or whether you think it can be improved or not, largely dictates how positive you are about Valentine’s NBA future.
With the ball, Valentine struggles to separate from his defender in terms of using raw speed…..which he doesn’t possess. He just simply lacks the “blow by” speed of many of your All Star level perimeter guys. He isn’t slow exactly, but he lacks “suddenness” and “burst” off the bounce. If you are looking for a wing who can blow by the defense, or bust around them with the ball in an ISO situation, Valentine isn’t your guy.
All this means to me is this: he is going to need a ballscreen to get by a good NBA defender off the dribble unless he is in an advantageous situation already prior to receiving a pass. Monta Ellis of our Pacers used to have blow by speed, but now he is like this too.
This means he likely isn’t going to be a guy you can isolate, or who can go get his own without help. If you care about that or want that, then Valentine isn’t a guy you’ll rate highly. He won’t get into the paint with suddenness, and he won’t get to the line very often, although if he does he is already an 85.3% shooter from there. Valentine also won’t jump over people and dunk on them, but instead he will rely on an already developed floater game, which he is proficient at already, though he does rely on it a bit too much.
That is it for offensive weaknesses: a lack of elite speed and burst.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensively, his athletic limitations show up much more frequently, and are more alarming, and he also has some technique issues to clean up as well.
Valentine simply, to this point in his development, lacks the “quick twitch” muscles in his lower body to become quick and explosive. This is clearly a player who has worked on his skills an insane amount of time, but who hasn’t had yet elite athletic training in speed and “torque”. He really struggles to explode out off the balls of his feet, both in a defensive slide (he covers very little ground when he slides), and when he takes off to run to close out to people. Some of it is that he isn’t low enough, and I think to date that he lacks a little flexibility in his hips….he doesn’t “drop his hips” to take off or to stop, and he often takes a little false step defensively that gets him behind the play by half a beat. He has GOT to get lower to the ground, push off the balls of his feet way better and get off his damn heels.
Whoever gets Valentine needs to make it an organizational priority to improve his body from the waist down, and to get him some quickness training. Yes, he has to get more intense and focused defensively sometimes….I see that too. But his awareness is pretty good I thought overall, and I think he plays intelligently and with passion, but he clearly is going to have to be “trained up” to improve his athleticism.
The great Zach Lowe wrote a piece last week about food and the NBA player, and that is important to me when reading about Valentine, because I clearly think he was playing a bit too heavy last year, when he weighed a reported 220-225lbs. The good news for me is that his trainers currently agree, as he has lost 13lbs already and continues to tone and improve his body.
I personally believe that with intense, smartly done training, that most of his athletic limitations can be improved to the point that I am not overly concerned about them. It will take hard work though. If you are interested, you can read all over the internet about some of the extremely hard training players do to improve their bodies, players such as Kyle Korver have made their training methods legendary.
He starts defensively with 2 high qualities: he is EXTREMELY long, and he is EXTREMELY intelligent. With dedicated training that he will get at the pro level, I think he ends up being an average to slightly above average defender through his prime years.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensively, Denzel Valentine was a stud at the college level, and I see no reason why he won’t be near that level in totality as a pro.
I’ve already covered what I perceive to be his main offensive weakness a few lines up the page….he lacks blow by ability and elite speed with the ball….he can’t go one on one, and he’ll need a screen to get open. That’s it, that’s the only flaw on the Mona Lisa that is his offensive game.
First, Valentine is an absolute sniper as a shooter. A robust 44.4% from deep as a senior, his mechanics are excellent, simple, and repeatable. I will admit to you that he doesn’t have great elevation, but I actually think that helps his accuracy, as well as this: he rarely takes bad shots from deep. His form is great and his length helps his extension to shoot over the top of the defense. Valentine can make threes off a ballscreen, as pick/pop guy screening for others (Michigan State didn’t use him as a screener enough because he had the ball so much, but that is an untapped tool for him I think), coming off “floppy” action and baseline screens, in transition, and is a “C/S” (catch and shoot) guy off others drive and kick.
In short, he is going to be a major weapon as a shooter, even if nothing else improves or translates. He shoots from the hop, he can square up quickly in a variety of circumstances, he times his cuts well, he gets his feet set up to score as the ball is on its way to him, he has deeper than deep range, he can side/dribble once or twice and reset himself if someone recovers to him….there is literally nothing to complain about here. His elite shooting will have “gravity” to the defense, and contort it ways that make it uncomfortable, if he is surrounded by other potential weapons. He is an ideal 3rd/4th scorer I think for a dynamic team.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Valentine is also a major weapon in the low post, a place where I think he has been underutilized a little bit, but where I think he projects to be very very good.
Valentine has a nice fadeaway over either shoulder, he has the “McHale” up and under, he has the “Sikma” pivot face up game, and he has the jump hook with either hand. I think wings, who are not accustomed to playing post defense anyway, are going to struggle to guard him on the block and in the mid/high post areas, if a coach is creative enough to put him there.
What makes him doubly dangerous I think in the post is this: he is a brilliant passer from there! I project him to be a guy you are going to have to possibly double team in the post, and if you are forced to do that, Valentine can kill you with his outstanding vision and passing ability.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Valentine’s ballhandling is a big asset, but I think his lack of speed and burst keep him from actually playing as a “true” point guard, instead I think he is more of a ballhandling wing….if you get what I am saying.
While he lacks the aforementioned explosion with his dribble at this time, Valentine will be an elite passer and ball mover at the NBA level. His height and intelligence enable to him to see over the top of the defense, and Valentine’s vision is already at a high level…..he sees the entire length and width of the floor already, as his handle is good enough to enable him to do that. He can thread the needle, make the drop off pocket pass, whip passes to either corner with either hand going either direction, and he is extremely unselfish. He runs your stuff, but he also reads the situation, and understands time and score…..all things an experienced, well coached kid (by Izzo and his staff and his own father) should do.
Valentine is a guy you can trust with the ball, and a guy who his teammates will love playing with offensively.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
His length also makes him an elite wing defemsive rebounder.
It isn’t that he is a dynamic leaper, or that he is extremely physical or anything. But he times his jumps well, and he reads the ball off the rim well so he beats people to long rebounds quite often.
Where he is a major weapon is when he does snag a defensive rebound, and can start his own fast break by dribbling up the court quickly and finding people. His vision is so good, and he is so unselfish, that his teammates better have their heads on a swivel and be ready, or else he will make them look bad. Valentine does occasionally turn it over by making an attempt at a “hero” type pass instead of making the simple play, but I view that as a small price to pay.
If you want to play wide open, uptempo, spread basketball with movement and passing (i.e., the modern NBA), then you need guards who can do and excel at multiple offensive things….Valentine can do that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We cannot finish a profile of Valentine without talking about his intangibles, which are significant and important.
Valentine is a leader, a high character, extremely well spoken and popular player who will be highly embraced by his teammates and the community.
This is a kid who was voted “most inspirational” as a struggling sophomore at Michigan State.
This is a kid who sought out players on the end of their bench at Michigan State and hung out with them off court, so they could feel included and part of the team.
This is a kid who leads, challenges teammates, pushes and prods some while inspiring others with kind words and quiet deeds.
This is a kid who will get in your community and embrace the opportunities given, and who will infect your lockerroom with joy, fun, but also accountability and grace.
This is a kid who is a gym rat, who refused to take time off even when his coaches insisted on it. This is a kid who makes his teammates go to the gym with him.
This is a kid who is a charismatic, loose, forceful leader….a player who showed these traits for every team he has played for, from youth basketball all the way to team USA last summer, to the highest levels of college hoops.
This is a kid who has been coached hard by both his father and by the hardest driving coach in college basketball, Tom Izzo.
And this is a kid with the character to graduate college in 4 years, unlike most kids who dump their schooling as soon as draft prep approaches.
Valentine, from many respects, reminds you a lot from an intangible point of view as Ex-Spartan Draymond Green, who worked out with Valentine all last summer, in physical workouts where Valentine didn’t stop working until he had “swished” (not just made) 200 3 pointers each day. He isn’t as boisterous as Green (no one is really), and he lacks the defensive upside and versatility of Draymond…..but those intangibles are there, and they matter.
So, what do we have in Denzel Valentine?
I think we have an extremely hard working, high IQ offensive weapon who perhaps isn’t “elite”, but who will play offense at a very high level, but who you will have to scheme around a bit to hide his defensive weaknesses, even though I see them improving some at this level.
I think you see a starting guard/wing on a championship or high level team, if he is surrounded by teammates and a scheme that uses his skills in the proper way. Worst case, I think he is a high level shooter who comes off your bench and plays with your starters for big minutes.
And I think I see a winner….a guy who makes winning plays and who helps others be better than they currently are. I see a “force multiplier” and “energy giver”....a guy who was quantifiable skills but who also has the right kind of intangibles that make anywhere he is a better place. Intelligence, by far, is the most underrated basketball attribute. Valentine has IQ for the game, and he has “emotional” IQ that enables him to make others better.
This is a guy you can win with big time, if he is your 3rd/4th best player. Valentine will be wasted on a bad team if he has to play above his abilities, but put him on a team with other good players, and I think he is the guy who can make a good team great, and a great team a champion.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How would Valentine fit in Indiana?
Obviously, I think he would be outstanding eventually. Playing in between George Hill ( a defensive plus point guard who can play off the ball some) and Paul George (a brilliant 2 way player who can guard a rival’s best wing scorer) is almost perfect for Valentine, as those 2 players would mitigate his faults, and he in turn would make them both better by creating scoring opportunities for both of them, while also being a scorer in his own right.
Playing in a “supposed” new system that will elevate the importance of spacing, ball movement, passing, and reading the defense while playing up-tempo, should ideally fit Valentine’s offensive skills. Playing in the proven Indiana defensive system should hide his flaws as well as can be expected, and his high character and charisma coming into a place that I think could use infusions of both I think would be great.
On a slow team, a team that plays selfishly with alot of isolation basketball, with a team that isn’t tied together defensively, I think Valentine suffers.
If available at pick #20, despite my normal inclination to pick younger guys instead of seniors, this is the way I would go. Short term and long term, I want our team to have guys like Valentine on it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ok, but will he be there? He might….but I doubt it.
He makes too much sense for too many teams, in my opinion, to fall to us. I think that the Bucks should take him at #10, I think Orlando should take him at #11 (and then they could start dealing people perhaps), The Bulls at #14 and the Nuggets at #15 and even #7 should consider him strongly. Ultimately though I think he ends up with the Jazz at pick #12, which would be a great fit…..or I think perhaps someone comes up from behind us to get him somewhere along the way. Atlanta, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Golden State perhaps….all those teams might want to get up in a position to take Valentine ahead of us.
If I am Larry Bird, I’d strongly consider moving up myself to get Valentine if the price isn’t a future 1st rounder, or someone vital to his development. I think for us, Valentine is the potential long term answer at what is one of the weaker positions in the league currently, the shooting guard position, and we have near ideal players to play around him. Something like our pick plus a marginal player (CJ Miles maybe) to move up a few spots to get Valentine makes sense to me.
We will see. Do I think Bird sees Valentine the way I do? Bird is too unpredictable for me at this point to know.
NBA comparables: JJ Redick (that’s his floor I think), Brandon Roy (Kevin Pritchard had him in Portland as did Nate McMillan….Roy is his ceiling I project), and Steve Smith all come to mind.
But the closest NBA comparable for Valentine is: Jalen Rose.
Rose is ultimately really close to how I see Valentine’s career playing out. A high level, high IQ offensive player who could flat play, but who was a defensive liability at times that needed the right coach and teammates to thrive as high as he could. Also, a very popular, intelligent and well spoken player who is doing awesome things in media and with the school he has started in Detroit, helping kids get an education.
I loved Jalen as a player, and I think Valentine is the modern version.
As always, the above is just my opinion……
Tbird
Valentine becomes the 7th profile in the 2016 series. Previously, I have done in-depth profiles of Wade Baldwin IV, Taurean Prince, Domantas Sabonis, Demetrius Jackson, Stephen Zimmerman, and Ben Bentil. You can find those profiles, along with ones from previous years, elsewhere on this site.
Each prospect comes from a unique background all of their own. In Valentine’s case, he grew up in a solid family with one older brother (Drew), who played at Oakland University and was eventually a graduate assistant for the Spartans. While Drew got the coaching bug from his father (he now is an assistant college coach at Oakland University), it was Denzel who became a dynamic basketball player in high school, eventually leading his father’s team to back to back state championships at JW Sexton High School in Lansing.
Carlton Valentine, who played for the legendary high school coach Morgan Wooten at famous DeMatha High (Wooten wrote what in my mind is still the pre-eminent book about coaching basketball, in my view), was recruited to Lansing by then assistant coach Tom Izzo. Valentine maintained a strong relationship with Coach Izzo, frequently taking young Drew and Denzel to games and into the Spartan locker room through the years. Denzel grew up around the Spartan program, and was seemingly destined to be a Michigan State player from early on, and that is indeed what happened.
Being the son of Lansing and of 2 professional educators, not finishing school was never really a consideration for Denzel, so he did it the old fashioned way: by staying in school for 4 years, continuing to improve steadily and mature, all while becoming one of the most popular athletes in the history of the storied program north of our state border.
Valentine graduated in May with a degree in communications, and leaves Michigan State as the runner-up for the Wooden Award (to Buddy Hield), and as the recipient of both the Sports Illustrated and USA Today National Player of the Year Awards. In 33 minutes his senior year, Valentine averaged 19.2 ppg, 7.5rpg, and 7.8apg, making him the only player in the last 21 years to average 19/7/7 in college for a season. Clearly, Valentine comes into this draft as the most productive, well rounded and versatile offensive player available, but the questions, for those who have them, will come from his lack of athleticism and age.
Valentine turns 23 years old right as next season ramps up, as he was born on November 16, 1993. He measured in at 6’5 ¾ , with a wingspan of 6’10 ¾. A no step vertical of 27.0, and a max vertical of 32.0 was what he measured at the NBA combine.
How do those numbers, and the others I am going to present, affect his future in the NBA game? Let’s put Valentine under the microscope:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Major production against big time opponents…...that is where we start.
29 pts, 12 rebounds, 12 assists vs Kansas. 29/11/10 vs Boston College. 19/14/8 vs Maryland. 27/8/10 vs Purdue. 30/5/13 vs Indiana. Those are all world numbers. But does how he got them translate to the next level?
There are about a million positive attributes to Valentine’s game, and only a few minor concerns. Let’s begin with the negatives first today, just to shake things up a bit.
First, Valentine does lack elite NBA athleticism….there is no doubt about that. Whether you think it is vital or not, or whether you think it can be improved or not, largely dictates how positive you are about Valentine’s NBA future.
With the ball, Valentine struggles to separate from his defender in terms of using raw speed…..which he doesn’t possess. He just simply lacks the “blow by” speed of many of your All Star level perimeter guys. He isn’t slow exactly, but he lacks “suddenness” and “burst” off the bounce. If you are looking for a wing who can blow by the defense, or bust around them with the ball in an ISO situation, Valentine isn’t your guy.
All this means to me is this: he is going to need a ballscreen to get by a good NBA defender off the dribble unless he is in an advantageous situation already prior to receiving a pass. Monta Ellis of our Pacers used to have blow by speed, but now he is like this too.
This means he likely isn’t going to be a guy you can isolate, or who can go get his own without help. If you care about that or want that, then Valentine isn’t a guy you’ll rate highly. He won’t get into the paint with suddenness, and he won’t get to the line very often, although if he does he is already an 85.3% shooter from there. Valentine also won’t jump over people and dunk on them, but instead he will rely on an already developed floater game, which he is proficient at already, though he does rely on it a bit too much.
That is it for offensive weaknesses: a lack of elite speed and burst.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defensively, his athletic limitations show up much more frequently, and are more alarming, and he also has some technique issues to clean up as well.
Valentine simply, to this point in his development, lacks the “quick twitch” muscles in his lower body to become quick and explosive. This is clearly a player who has worked on his skills an insane amount of time, but who hasn’t had yet elite athletic training in speed and “torque”. He really struggles to explode out off the balls of his feet, both in a defensive slide (he covers very little ground when he slides), and when he takes off to run to close out to people. Some of it is that he isn’t low enough, and I think to date that he lacks a little flexibility in his hips….he doesn’t “drop his hips” to take off or to stop, and he often takes a little false step defensively that gets him behind the play by half a beat. He has GOT to get lower to the ground, push off the balls of his feet way better and get off his damn heels.
Whoever gets Valentine needs to make it an organizational priority to improve his body from the waist down, and to get him some quickness training. Yes, he has to get more intense and focused defensively sometimes….I see that too. But his awareness is pretty good I thought overall, and I think he plays intelligently and with passion, but he clearly is going to have to be “trained up” to improve his athleticism.
The great Zach Lowe wrote a piece last week about food and the NBA player, and that is important to me when reading about Valentine, because I clearly think he was playing a bit too heavy last year, when he weighed a reported 220-225lbs. The good news for me is that his trainers currently agree, as he has lost 13lbs already and continues to tone and improve his body.
I personally believe that with intense, smartly done training, that most of his athletic limitations can be improved to the point that I am not overly concerned about them. It will take hard work though. If you are interested, you can read all over the internet about some of the extremely hard training players do to improve their bodies, players such as Kyle Korver have made their training methods legendary.
He starts defensively with 2 high qualities: he is EXTREMELY long, and he is EXTREMELY intelligent. With dedicated training that he will get at the pro level, I think he ends up being an average to slightly above average defender through his prime years.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensively, Denzel Valentine was a stud at the college level, and I see no reason why he won’t be near that level in totality as a pro.
I’ve already covered what I perceive to be his main offensive weakness a few lines up the page….he lacks blow by ability and elite speed with the ball….he can’t go one on one, and he’ll need a screen to get open. That’s it, that’s the only flaw on the Mona Lisa that is his offensive game.
First, Valentine is an absolute sniper as a shooter. A robust 44.4% from deep as a senior, his mechanics are excellent, simple, and repeatable. I will admit to you that he doesn’t have great elevation, but I actually think that helps his accuracy, as well as this: he rarely takes bad shots from deep. His form is great and his length helps his extension to shoot over the top of the defense. Valentine can make threes off a ballscreen, as pick/pop guy screening for others (Michigan State didn’t use him as a screener enough because he had the ball so much, but that is an untapped tool for him I think), coming off “floppy” action and baseline screens, in transition, and is a “C/S” (catch and shoot) guy off others drive and kick.
In short, he is going to be a major weapon as a shooter, even if nothing else improves or translates. He shoots from the hop, he can square up quickly in a variety of circumstances, he times his cuts well, he gets his feet set up to score as the ball is on its way to him, he has deeper than deep range, he can side/dribble once or twice and reset himself if someone recovers to him….there is literally nothing to complain about here. His elite shooting will have “gravity” to the defense, and contort it ways that make it uncomfortable, if he is surrounded by other potential weapons. He is an ideal 3rd/4th scorer I think for a dynamic team.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Valentine is also a major weapon in the low post, a place where I think he has been underutilized a little bit, but where I think he projects to be very very good.
Valentine has a nice fadeaway over either shoulder, he has the “McHale” up and under, he has the “Sikma” pivot face up game, and he has the jump hook with either hand. I think wings, who are not accustomed to playing post defense anyway, are going to struggle to guard him on the block and in the mid/high post areas, if a coach is creative enough to put him there.
What makes him doubly dangerous I think in the post is this: he is a brilliant passer from there! I project him to be a guy you are going to have to possibly double team in the post, and if you are forced to do that, Valentine can kill you with his outstanding vision and passing ability.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Valentine’s ballhandling is a big asset, but I think his lack of speed and burst keep him from actually playing as a “true” point guard, instead I think he is more of a ballhandling wing….if you get what I am saying.
While he lacks the aforementioned explosion with his dribble at this time, Valentine will be an elite passer and ball mover at the NBA level. His height and intelligence enable to him to see over the top of the defense, and Valentine’s vision is already at a high level…..he sees the entire length and width of the floor already, as his handle is good enough to enable him to do that. He can thread the needle, make the drop off pocket pass, whip passes to either corner with either hand going either direction, and he is extremely unselfish. He runs your stuff, but he also reads the situation, and understands time and score…..all things an experienced, well coached kid (by Izzo and his staff and his own father) should do.
Valentine is a guy you can trust with the ball, and a guy who his teammates will love playing with offensively.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
His length also makes him an elite wing defemsive rebounder.
It isn’t that he is a dynamic leaper, or that he is extremely physical or anything. But he times his jumps well, and he reads the ball off the rim well so he beats people to long rebounds quite often.
Where he is a major weapon is when he does snag a defensive rebound, and can start his own fast break by dribbling up the court quickly and finding people. His vision is so good, and he is so unselfish, that his teammates better have their heads on a swivel and be ready, or else he will make them look bad. Valentine does occasionally turn it over by making an attempt at a “hero” type pass instead of making the simple play, but I view that as a small price to pay.
If you want to play wide open, uptempo, spread basketball with movement and passing (i.e., the modern NBA), then you need guards who can do and excel at multiple offensive things….Valentine can do that.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
We cannot finish a profile of Valentine without talking about his intangibles, which are significant and important.
Valentine is a leader, a high character, extremely well spoken and popular player who will be highly embraced by his teammates and the community.
This is a kid who was voted “most inspirational” as a struggling sophomore at Michigan State.
This is a kid who sought out players on the end of their bench at Michigan State and hung out with them off court, so they could feel included and part of the team.
This is a kid who leads, challenges teammates, pushes and prods some while inspiring others with kind words and quiet deeds.
This is a kid who will get in your community and embrace the opportunities given, and who will infect your lockerroom with joy, fun, but also accountability and grace.
This is a kid who is a gym rat, who refused to take time off even when his coaches insisted on it. This is a kid who makes his teammates go to the gym with him.
This is a kid who is a charismatic, loose, forceful leader….a player who showed these traits for every team he has played for, from youth basketball all the way to team USA last summer, to the highest levels of college hoops.
This is a kid who has been coached hard by both his father and by the hardest driving coach in college basketball, Tom Izzo.
And this is a kid with the character to graduate college in 4 years, unlike most kids who dump their schooling as soon as draft prep approaches.
Valentine, from many respects, reminds you a lot from an intangible point of view as Ex-Spartan Draymond Green, who worked out with Valentine all last summer, in physical workouts where Valentine didn’t stop working until he had “swished” (not just made) 200 3 pointers each day. He isn’t as boisterous as Green (no one is really), and he lacks the defensive upside and versatility of Draymond…..but those intangibles are there, and they matter.
So, what do we have in Denzel Valentine?
I think we have an extremely hard working, high IQ offensive weapon who perhaps isn’t “elite”, but who will play offense at a very high level, but who you will have to scheme around a bit to hide his defensive weaknesses, even though I see them improving some at this level.
I think you see a starting guard/wing on a championship or high level team, if he is surrounded by teammates and a scheme that uses his skills in the proper way. Worst case, I think he is a high level shooter who comes off your bench and plays with your starters for big minutes.
And I think I see a winner….a guy who makes winning plays and who helps others be better than they currently are. I see a “force multiplier” and “energy giver”....a guy who was quantifiable skills but who also has the right kind of intangibles that make anywhere he is a better place. Intelligence, by far, is the most underrated basketball attribute. Valentine has IQ for the game, and he has “emotional” IQ that enables him to make others better.
This is a guy you can win with big time, if he is your 3rd/4th best player. Valentine will be wasted on a bad team if he has to play above his abilities, but put him on a team with other good players, and I think he is the guy who can make a good team great, and a great team a champion.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
How would Valentine fit in Indiana?
Obviously, I think he would be outstanding eventually. Playing in between George Hill ( a defensive plus point guard who can play off the ball some) and Paul George (a brilliant 2 way player who can guard a rival’s best wing scorer) is almost perfect for Valentine, as those 2 players would mitigate his faults, and he in turn would make them both better by creating scoring opportunities for both of them, while also being a scorer in his own right.
Playing in a “supposed” new system that will elevate the importance of spacing, ball movement, passing, and reading the defense while playing up-tempo, should ideally fit Valentine’s offensive skills. Playing in the proven Indiana defensive system should hide his flaws as well as can be expected, and his high character and charisma coming into a place that I think could use infusions of both I think would be great.
On a slow team, a team that plays selfishly with alot of isolation basketball, with a team that isn’t tied together defensively, I think Valentine suffers.
If available at pick #20, despite my normal inclination to pick younger guys instead of seniors, this is the way I would go. Short term and long term, I want our team to have guys like Valentine on it.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ok, but will he be there? He might….but I doubt it.
He makes too much sense for too many teams, in my opinion, to fall to us. I think that the Bucks should take him at #10, I think Orlando should take him at #11 (and then they could start dealing people perhaps), The Bulls at #14 and the Nuggets at #15 and even #7 should consider him strongly. Ultimately though I think he ends up with the Jazz at pick #12, which would be a great fit…..or I think perhaps someone comes up from behind us to get him somewhere along the way. Atlanta, Charlotte, Philadelphia, Golden State perhaps….all those teams might want to get up in a position to take Valentine ahead of us.
If I am Larry Bird, I’d strongly consider moving up myself to get Valentine if the price isn’t a future 1st rounder, or someone vital to his development. I think for us, Valentine is the potential long term answer at what is one of the weaker positions in the league currently, the shooting guard position, and we have near ideal players to play around him. Something like our pick plus a marginal player (CJ Miles maybe) to move up a few spots to get Valentine makes sense to me.
We will see. Do I think Bird sees Valentine the way I do? Bird is too unpredictable for me at this point to know.
NBA comparables: JJ Redick (that’s his floor I think), Brandon Roy (Kevin Pritchard had him in Portland as did Nate McMillan….Roy is his ceiling I project), and Steve Smith all come to mind.
But the closest NBA comparable for Valentine is: Jalen Rose.
Rose is ultimately really close to how I see Valentine’s career playing out. A high level, high IQ offensive player who could flat play, but who was a defensive liability at times that needed the right coach and teammates to thrive as high as he could. Also, a very popular, intelligent and well spoken player who is doing awesome things in media and with the school he has started in Detroit, helping kids get an education.
I loved Jalen as a player, and I think Valentine is the modern version.
As always, the above is just my opinion……
Tbird
Comment