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All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

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  • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
    I don't think anyone is arguing that Roy regressed last season. I mean he was an AS the previous season.

    Even though his production was about the same from a per minute basis, his impact was less. I do believe he felt the loss of PG as did the rest of the team. But there's a pretty big line between not playing well and whats been made of Roy's contribution. Posters are basing their entire arguments of Roy's worth on the last season and a half, while forgetting things he did previously as well as things that he continued to do well last season.
    Not at all. My entire point is that in my opinion the pacers were never getting old Roy back because Roy was a very unhappy man. His play suffered and he became a negative force in the locker room. Anyone who says we will miss Roy is living in the past. Sure, we will miss Roy of two years ago. But we sure won't miss the Roy that we would have had this upcoming season. An unhappy head case. LA should be good for Roy.
    Danger Zone

    Comment


    • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

      Originally posted by ChicagoJ View Post

      I'm not trying to tell you Roy earned his max contract, but he's still one of the top defensive players in the league

      Roy certainly did not "earn" his contract. He got paid a "premium" based on potential to improve. Roy never did reach his mark and in fact fell far from it. Not going to say he robbed Mr. Simon of $60 mill but based on inconsistency and subpar mediocre performances especially in the playoffs it's safe to say Roy failed in meeting expectations.

      Is Roy really one of the top defensive players in the league? My bet is if he were in the Finals this season vs GS he would have been playing Bogut level minutes. Which amounts to what Roy's average was this year or less @ 25 minutes. If Roy is one of the top defenders why is it only against about 40% of this league. The other 60% he cant stay on the court. His contributions are entierely matchup based on the other team not having a legit center (ie philly, ny, mia - only teams roy plays well against).

      Where does this notion come from that Roy is an elite defender when its never present when you need it. Roy's defense wasnt close to great vs the Heat in the most recent ECF. If it had been Pacers would not have been so close to getting swept by the Heat and actually put up a fight that season.

      Why if Roy is elite then does Vogel not even want him on Marc Gasol in a must win playoff game. Where was Roy when Brook Lopez lit him up in 2 playoff type games at the end of the season. Same goes with Tyler Zeller and Zaza Pachulia who both outplayed Roy when the season was on the line.

      roy gets dominated more than not vs the elite of this league (DeAndre Jordan, Boogie Cousins, Marc Gasol..) again and again. Gets absused on the glass or off the block. Roy is not a great individual defender. He is too immobile vs elite point gaurds like Goran Dragic or Westbrook - as in it makes no difference if Roy is on the court (eviddenced by his lack of playing time).

      Roy is going to really struggle out West. Willl become more obvious as season goes on Roy's real skillset and standing in front of the rim. Not really a sillset to be 7'2 but thats essentially the gist of what he does well.

      Guess everyone has their own definition of elite defense, but imo Roy doesnt stack up well overall.

      Comment


      • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

        Originally posted by Pacerized View Post
        If anyone excepts Turner to replace Hibbert defensively this year they're setting their expectations way too high. It's unlikely that he ever reaches that level. We're taking a huge drop off on D this year.
        Turner is a shot blocking machine, and he can rebound. We will be just fine on defense with Turner going forward
        Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

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        • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

          Originally posted by ChicagoJ View Post
          I can cherrypick, too.

          Defensive rating dropped from 98 to 101 - same as his 2011-21 all-star season. That's still a top-20 rating. Disappointing how much he dropped, but there are 450+ players worse than that.

          Defensive win shares dropped from 5.0 to 3.2, but since wins dropped by almost 20 I'm not sure that decline is attributed to Roy's performance alone. And that still was a tie for 28th in the league. You have to sort this page to get more than the top 20: http://www.basketball-reference.com/...l#advanced::21

          In spite of all the angst about his rebounding, his defensive rebounding percent ranked 64th in the league, an improvement from 207th the previous year. (Maybe Lance really was stealing his rebounds.)

          His defensive box +/- was 53rd. Five of the guys near the top of that list combined to play 250 total minutes last season - not sure how to filter them out. Again, that's a drop from #14 the previous season (three players ahead of him combined for 32 minutes that season so their numbers probably aren't meaningful.) But 400+ players in the league weren't as good.

          You're being obnoxiously over the top in your arguments against Roy. I get that you hate him. It shows.

          I'm not trying to tell you Roy earned his max contract, but he's still one of the top defensive players in the league in spite of the role that was being reduced as the season went on, and had been reduced considerably since late January 2014 when the team decided to quit doing what was working (or Lance and Paul decided to quit doing what was working). And much of what he does defensively isn't measured in stats. These stats aren't perfect but they help point to being a post presence on defense.

          I'm just saying he's a legit NBA starter because of his defense. And that's still true. And that's something the Pacers no longer have the luxury of. So when we're losing games 112-106 this season in spite of Chuck Ellis, Paul George and George Hill all dropping 20+, while the opponent dunks and gets layups any time they want, well, that's what our front office asked for. So you better be cheering loud about how much you are enjoying that.
          Ian was better than Roy at nearly every cherry picked stat you found, and we still have him on our team. The idea that because we lost Roy we're gonna be a terrible defensive team this year is irrational. We will still be top ten.

          Comment


          • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

            Originally posted by CJ Jones View Post
            Ian was better than Roy at nearly every cherry picked stat you found, and we still have him on our team. The idea that because we lost Roy we're gonna be a terrible defensive team this year is irrational. We will still be top ten.
            Ian played against backups. If he was ever better than Roy he would have started over Roy. He probably won't start over Jordan Hill this season, either. Ian doesn't fit the new fast-tempo direction of the pacers.

            Can't be sure of anything, but given that West will also be gone and he was the last guy left that would actually push back when pushed, I see that as highly unlikely. There really isn't a deterrent at the rim for the Pacers now. That's going to hurt a bit. There's going to be an adjustment period where Hill and George get too close to their man and instead of having a protector/enforcer behind them, their man is going to waltz to the rim for a layup/dunk.
            Last edited by Kstat; 07-25-2015, 04:04 PM.

            It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

            Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
            Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
            NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

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            • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

              Ian is a rim deferent... as is Turner. You can count Turner out because of inexperience if you want, but I'm thinking he'll impact the game defensively from jump.

              Ian actually played quite a few minutes against starting level comp last year while Hibbert was getting benched.

              Someone needs to make a poll to see who all thinks we'll drop out of the top 10 defensively. Would be fun to look back on next year.

              Comment


              • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                Originally posted by wintermute View Post
                Defensive win shares are a little flaky, but then most defensive stats are.
                I think that Player Tracking's defensive stats are great, actually. All the Opponent Shots at the rim are great for measuring rim protection and there is also the player tracking defense (this link -> http://stats.nba.com/league/player/defense/#!/ ) that measures a player's DFG% (defensive field goal percentage) and the way that it compares to opponent's FG% (an approximation of the FG% that the player's opponents are shooting in general).

                In general, Player Tracking is doing an excellent job at revolusionizing advanced statistics. We no longer need to rely on formulas. We can record every single shot that every single NBA player has taken in a game and that can give us a much better image of what is really happening.

                But yeah, defensive win shares are definitely flaky. Carlos Boozer had higher defensive win shares than Noah in 11-12 and we all know that this shouldn't be possible
                Originally posted by IrishPacer
                Empty vessels make the most noise.

                Comment


                • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                  Again: I don't think Ian will play much at all next season. He's a halfcourt center on a team that's going full-court, and if he plays I don't know how effective he'll be with the increased tempo. Turner may see more time than Ian does.

                  Jordan Hill is likely your starting C for this season. I think Bird signed him as a placeholder until Turner is ready.

                  It wasn't about being the team everyone loved, it was about beating the teams everyone else loved.

                  Division Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 1989, 1990, 2002, 2003, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008
                  Conference Champions 1955, 1956, 1988, 2005
                  NBA Champions 1989, 1990, 2004

                  Comment


                  • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                    Originally posted by CJ Jones View Post
                    Ian was better than Roy at nearly every cherry picked stat you found, and we still have him on our team. The idea that because we lost Roy we're gonna be a terrible defensive team this year is irrational. We will still be top ten.
                    We were top 10 this year despite not having Paul George, despite George Hill being injured for half the season and despite starting some below average defenders. Despite all that we were still #8 in Defensive Efficiency. So, yeah, we will probably be top 10 even without Roy.

                    But we were going to be elite with Roy. We were going to be back in the top 3 in Defensive Efficiency. This isn't the case anymore. We could become elite defensively once again when Myles Turner fully matures physically and adapts to the role of an NBA starter that specializes in protecting the rim but we don't know how long that's gonna take.
                    Originally posted by IrishPacer
                    Empty vessels make the most noise.

                    Comment


                    • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                      Nuntius, I to love player tracking. My problem with the defensive stats is they are very limited. For example, it doesn't have any data on defense father from the rim or say against pnr or pnp. I believe hibbert is an excellent rim defender, however has some limits to his defense due to being slow, so the pacers schemed to keep him around the rim at almost all times. I think the pacers schemed was a huge benefit for all pacers players in regards to rim defense. For example, Granger's rim D fell off a cliff when he left the pacers (you can compare his stats for both teams) however, I know Granger isn't a great example, only the only one I could find....
                      Danger Zone

                      Comment


                      • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                        Originally posted by Kstat View Post
                        Again: I don't think Ian will play much at all next season. He's a halfcourt center on a team that's going full-court, and if he plays I don't know how effective he'll be with the increased tempo. Turner may see more time than Ian does.

                        Jordan Hill is likely your starting C for this season. I think Bird signed him as a placeholder until Turner is ready.
                        We'll see about Ian. I see him as the exact opposite of a halfcourt center. (strange to me you think otherwise). I think he'll play more than you and some others think and I think he'll play better in an uptempo offense.

                        Wouldn't surprise me if he's moved though at some point in the season unless we overachieve and Bird thinks we have a shot.

                        Comment


                        • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                          Originally posted by Nuntius View Post
                          We were top 10 this year despite not having Paul George, despite George Hill being injured for half the season and despite starting some below average defenders. Despite all that we were still #8 in Defensive Efficiency. So, yeah, we will probably be top 10 even without Roy.

                          But we were going to be elite with Roy. We were going to be back in the top 3 in Defensive Efficiency. This isn't the case anymore. We could become elite defensively once again when Myles Turner fully matures physically and adapts to the role of an NBA starter that specializes in protecting the rim but we don't know how long that's gonna take.
                          I agree with you. We may not be as good defensively without Roy, but we'll still be really good. I was responding to the guys who think our entire defensive identity left with Roy.

                          Comment


                          • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                            Originally posted by CJ Jones View Post
                            Ian is a rim deferent... as is Turner. You can count Turner out because of inexperience if you want, but I'm thinking he'll impact the game defensively from jump.

                            Ian actually played quite a few minutes against starting level comp last year while Hibbert was getting benched.

                            Someone needs to make a poll to see who all thinks we'll drop out of the top 10 defensively. Would be fun to look back on next year.
                            Even if we are say 8th defensively, we still aren't elite. We won't have an elite offense to make up for the fact that we will no longer be elite defensively.

                            Maybe our team will be a bit more balanced, but we don't have the chance of being elite on either side of the ball. We not only had a chance to be elite had we kept Roy, but it was a likely scenario.

                            That's all any one is saying.

                            Comment


                            • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                              Originally posted by Pacergeek View Post
                              Turner is a shot blocking machine, and he can rebound. We will be just fine on defense with Turner going forward
                              You're basing this off of a few good summer league games. Can we at least wait until he plays well against real NBA competition to state this claim as a fact moving forward?

                              Comment


                              • Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

                                A few people seem to think its gonna be a layup drill. Maybe I'm reading it wrong.

                                Honestly think we could jump up close to elite level offensively and still be close to a top 5 defensive team.

                                Yea I'm optimistic.

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