/ laugh at PosterX / GroupOfPeopleY who thought / believed *insert though/belief here*"
Tweet
With this preview of Justise Winslow we have reached the end of all of the pre-draft deep analysis pieces for 2015. In previous editions of this series, I have broken down the games of 12 other players: Kevin Looney, Tyus Jones, Jerien Grant, Frank Kaminsky, Kelly Oubre, Stanley Johnson, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Cameron Payne, Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles, and Bobby Portis. You can find those profiles elsewhere on this site.
Winslow will be the 13th player broken down in detail for this draft, but if Larry Bird happens to select someone who I have not broken down yet, I will do that all for you in the days following the draft. Bird has certainly stumped me before, as I didn't do Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, or Tyler Hansbrough in the days prior to the draft those years.
But, if he does it again, never fear, because I will have breakdowns on whomever it will be, assuming it is someone I can get tape access to or already have in my possession.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As I dive headfirst into trying to make predictions on what other teams ahead of us may do on Thursday, I see the potential for a few players who are predicted in every mock draft I have seen to go way ahead of us to actually fall to #11.
Devin Booker and Willie Cauley Stein both could easily fall to us with just a couple off odd selections ahead of us, or with deals that we can't predict yet. Stanley Johnson could also fall to us under certain conditions, as could Frank Kaminsky and Cameron Payne. As I have endorsed all 5 of those players for Indiana, any of those selections ultimately would be good for us in my opinion.....though some would be better than others of course.
But, there are scenarios where teams behind us trade up and take players that I wouldn't take, pushing higher rated, unexpected players to us. I have identified 2 such players who at least have a slim possibility of crashing all the way to pick #11, either through strange circumstances, being overrated by the media, or with attitude and background problems scaring teams off.
One such player is Mario Hezonja. I will not be previewing Hezonja unless we select him, as getting full game tape of him has taken me too long to acquire. However, I do have it now, and if we end up with him somehow I'll give it a full breakdown next weekend. Hezonja has some buyout potential issues, along with some serious attitude questions in some people's minds. With Indiana having the very best European scouting staff in the NBA, led by the very well respected Pete Philo, I would assume that Indiana has Hezonja very high on its own board, or at least knows him better than most of the other teams in the league.
The other player I think could unexpectedly fall is Justise Winslow, and you can read his scouting report below:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winslow has a very interesting basketball background. His father Rickie played for one of the most famous and exciting teams college basketball ever produced, the "Phi Slamma Jamma" Houston Cougars, who lost in one of the most thrilling college basketball games ever played, the NCAA championship game in 1983 when they lost to NC State and Coach Jimmy Valvano.
Rickie Winslow was drafted, then bounced around in Europe playing professionally for years, before finally settling down to live in Houston. Rickie served as an assistant coach for a local high school in Houston called St. John's, an elite academic school that prior to Justise attending had never been known for athletics.....but with Justise playing for the tiny school, they managed to win 3 state titles in 4 years in their class. Note that Justise COULD have attended any basketball type factory school in the country, but instead went to the very high academic institution.
Justise's mother, Robin Davis, was a stickler for academics and wanted all of her children to be much more well rounded than the normal athletic minded teenager. She succeeded, as her youngest son has grown up with a rather eclectic personality, having a deep interest in art and history, visiting art museums while on draft workout trips and spending hours watching the History channel. He also has a deep interest in politics and sites Theodore Roosevelt as one of his heroes. His older brother Josh plays football at Dartmouth, and his older sister Bianca plays basketball for the University of Houston. He also has a brother named Brandon, who owns a marketing firm in Los Angeles, and a half brother named Cedric at home.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Justise, if nothing else, has been a player who has experienced tremendous team success. 3 state championships in high school, an undefeated 22-0 record for Team USA, and a national championship in his one season at Duke.
His team USA experience is interesting to me. Winslow actually played up one year out of his class, so he played on teams that included last year's group of rookies, including Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and many others. To me, that speaks highly of his talents and his popularity with teammates, as he was recruited and accepted as a member of that team.
But, there are at least some nagging issues that I am hearing that may bother some teams. Winslow blew off a radio appearance in NYC the other day on Boomer Esiason's show and got roundly criticized for it. He also got a technical for a borderline dirty play against Virginia last year, and was ejected once and warned several other times while playing in high school.
None of those issues bother me personally, and I totally would take Coach K's recommendations over some high school ref in Texas and a has been QB with a radio show....but still, the fact that teams are often unbelievably queasy about such things this time of year is why I think it as least worth talking about the possibility he could end up here.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winslow, who has the reputation of being a gym rat and tape fiend, played 29 minutes per game last year at Duke, putting up 12.6 PPG and 6.5 RPG. While a struggling shooter from deep prior to last year, for the Blue Devils he shot a very healthy 41.4% from downtown. At the combine, Winslow measured in at 6'6 1/2, which was smaller than most scouts expected. He also had a 6'10 1/4 wingspan, and weighed in at 222lbs. Winslow has an NBA body right now, no question. But what kind of player does he project to be at the next level? Let's put his game under the microscope:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense will be Winslow's calling card the very first step he takes on an NBA floor. He is a VERY high level defender, basically showing me NO DEFENSIVE WEAKNESSES on tape.
Seriously, his defensive work is scary good. He can guard multiple positions on switches, and I think immediately comes in and defends the opponents best player. He matches up well with all 2 guards, all 3 men, some 4's, and some 1's depending on the matchup.
His body helps him greatly defensively. He can power over ball screens, quickly and balanced in his stance, and has a very high motor. He can physically power through the trash and not "die" on screens, and he can recover very well if he is beaten. Winslow can guard the ball, and he can deny the wings, and he can run through screens. Winslow can use his strength to defend bigger guys in the low post, and he is very adept at stopping on a dime and contesting a pull up jumpshot. Furthermore, being left handed he usually contests higher with his left hand....which perfectly matches the right handed release of most shooters.
Best of all, his motor is relentless. Nobody chases down plays from the backside better than Winslow in this draft, and he actually gives you a bit of rim protection as a 3/4 man/wing defender. His transition defense is excellent, and he never gives up on a play.
On top of all that, he is an outstanding team defender. Many NBA rookies struggle with rotations and fitting in a defensive scheme.....Winslow will not have that problem. Partly because he is a gym rat and tape studier, and partly because he was just brilliantly coached by Team USA and in college, Winslow already understands complex defensive plans and rotations. His intellect and alertness stood out on tape. Winslow can defend multiple offensive actions, can anticipate screens and cuts before they happen, and makes everybody around him defensively better.
When a superior athlete also has high IQ and a very hot motor, that adds up to a top flight NBA defender with experience, and I project that Winslow will be just that. No weaknesses defensively that I see.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensively, it isn't nearly as fun to watch or write about, but there are still many things to be excited about.
Winslow is a major weapon in transition, and that is probably the best thing he does right now. What makes him more special than other wings is that he doesn't just simply fill the lanes, although he does that at an extremely high level. What makes him unique to this draft is ability to get the defensive rebound, then push the ball up the floor himself to be a creator in the middle. He is both quick and crafty with the ball, and he can either use a Eurostep to score himself, or drive and kick to open people on both sides of the floor. Pushing the ball up the floor himself is probably the most fun thing about watching him play offense.
Winslow shot a high percentage from 3 point land in college, but I do view that as somewhat of a mirage right now. No one will fear his jump shot from deep in the NBA and no one feared it in college either.
His form is just not very good, nor very consistent.....that is worse to try and correct, because he makes different mistakes form wise from shot to shot. His most common mistake on a catch and shoot is in his "load"....I think Winslow brings the ball up to above his head too early, forcing a small hitch and making his shot too flat. Everyone just about "dips" the ball to get momentum and timing lined up on a shot, so if I were to try and fix Winslow, the first priority would be to get him to dip the ball more consistently to the same spot and at the same speed. He also occasionally dips it to close to his chest, which forces his body to have to lean back to get his shot off. It is a myriad of poor fundamentals, some of which were fixed at Duke some of the time, but not always.
His next mistakes on a catch and shoot are that he fails to "gooseneck" the wrist, instead occasionally turning his wrist to the right as he releases it......add to that the fact that he sometimes lets the ball be influenced off his ring finger/pinky (the pinky finger should be off the ball totally in my view at the release, and the ring finger should point right at the target) and you have a slightly hot mess as a catch and shoot guy.
The prescription from Tbird would be to fix the dip issues first, then tackle the other issues eventually. I think he has the talent to become serviceable from the deeper NBA line, but it will take many thousands of reps, great coaching, and a lot of determination from Winslow himself.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As a driver is where Winslow can potentially be dynamic, but first he will have to develop some sort of mid range game. At Duke, according to Synergy, Winslow made just 2 off the dribble jump shots all year long.....so on tape, I set out to see what exactly he is doing and how I'd recommend fixing him.
And, I report to you some bad news, which is he has multiple problems that depend on which direction he is going to.
Going to his right, he really struggles with the load again, particularly with trying to get the ball back to his left hand to shoot. He just looks very uncomfortable with the mechanics of doing that. Also, like many young players, he fails to really pound that last dribble hard enough, which causes his knee flex to come too late and forces him out of rhythm.
Going to his left is better, slightly. Going that way he again doesn't dip the ball far enough and dips it too quickly, which causes him to raise the ball up to the firing position before he gets his body square.
The good news is that his footwork is pretty good as a shooter, but there is a lot to fix here on the upper end of his shooting form.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At this point, he is basically a slasher/driver in the halfcourt, with streaks of being an OK spot up shooter.
As a driver he is really good, which makes him very hard to guard still for many defenders. He gets low with his dribble, and has a very nice crossover dribble below his kneecaps and a very pretty Eurostep in traffic. He can finish with either hand in traffic, seeks out contact and can score despite being bumped with his strength and body control.
If he can develop a consistent jumper, Winslow will be a weapon offensively due to his craftiness. He already can split the defenders when receiving a ball screen, and get by a hard hedge. He also can be a weapon right now in "iso" situations, but he has to turn his back to the defense and use a post up game to do so.....getting a pull up jumper in his arsenal would make teams have to play him honestly instead of just dropping way off him like they already do now.
I do like him as a post player, and if you have Winslow and don't use him down there I think you are hurting yourself. He is so strong there, and has nice moves already and really good footwork. Posting up guards and smaller wings I think is the next wave of the future, and Winslow is going to be really good at doing that.
Also, Winslow is absolute dynamite post feeder. He can make the high low pass in the paint, and he feeds it from all angles on the perimeter and with both hands. I generally think that wings who are good post players themselves make good post feeders, as they understand the importance of it. Paired with Okafor this year, Winslow was a huge help to the big man in putting up the numbers he did. Once Winslow gets a jump shot, he will even be better at this hidden art of the game, as he will have more space in which to operate as a passer.
Last thing to mention: Winslow is a willing and active screener. If you have him on your team, I'd use him to screen all over the floor, and use him like a very active chess piece, moving him all over the board. I also like to take advantage of guys like this by using him as a point forward on certain set plays, since teams lay off of him so much.....by guarding him that way, you can creatively use him to run stuff with him at the top with the ball since he can see the entire floor unpressured.
I'd recommend not trying to "pigeon hole" Winslow into any one thing offensively, instead move him all over the place in a variety of different roles. He would be MUCH better playing on a team who is playing small, with only one post player in the way in a more spread system and style......Winslow wouldn't fit offensively in Memphis for instance, and he won't fit very well if teams insist on pairing him with 2 bigs all the time and playing in a traditional style.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, what do you have in Justise Winslow?
I think we have an extremely intelligent, high IQ, high motor, top shelf defender. He also is a work in progress offensively with a semi high ceiling, and who is still very young and learning to play. He is not a finished product yet by any stretch, but by year 2 or 3 he has the potential to be a high level 2 way player. If he improves his jump shot (no sure thing) then he is a near All Star....a guy who can be the 3rd best player or so on a great team. If he doesn't improve his jumper, he ends up being a role playing defender......either way he has a high floor and pretty high ceiling as well.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Should the Pacers pick him if he is there magically at #11?
The short answer is probably, but let's see who else is there for sure before deciding. Likely though the answer would be yes. It would be hard to imagine how he wouldn't be the top guy on the board, or at least in the top 2 still left?
But you are reading this and thinking....there is NO WAY he is available, right? Let's examine that!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's assume these things to be true:
1. The first 6 picks, in some order, to whoever ends up picking, are the two bigs (Okafor and Towns), the two point guards (Mudiay and Russell), and the two Europeans (Porzingas and Hezonja).
By the way, you can use this same way of thinking to assume Hezonja slips, just put Winslow into his spot.
2. Picks 7-10 include Johnson, Kaminsky, somebody trading up to get Turner, and Stein.
3. In this scenario, Indiana would be faced with just about all bigs being gone, but still having Booker, Winslow, and Payne still available.
It's unlikely, but not impossible, that it could play out like that. I see lots of teams inside of the top 10 trading with each other, moving up and back to gain extra assets and/or to get the guy they want specifically. I also think Boston eventually does get up into the top 10 to get either Turner or Stein.
By the way, I believe that Stein "foot injury" rumor today is classic Boston smoke....but we will see.
For now, Winslow and Hezonja I feel are the 2 most likely consensus top 7 guys that could possibly fall to us.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winslow has a range of NBA players he could be compared to in my opinion.
The worst case: Michael Kidd Gilchrest. I liked MKG coming out of college and in fact I still sort of do, and I think we will find out that Mark Price was an absolute awful shooting coach for him. I still think he is somewhat fixable, and we will see if they can do that down in Charlotte.
I think Winslow, though he has some definite shooting issues, will be much better than that.
So with that in mind, by NBA comparable for Winslow is:
Andre Iguodala.
Iggy is a pure winner, a guy who can guard everyone's top guys and still give you 15pts a night in his prime. Not a great shooter, but just like Winslow does, he makes "momentum" plays and big time key shots that effect the game, plus he plays the right way and does things that help you win. To get the most out of Winslow, you'll want to put as much good shooting as you can around him.
If I am right, Winslow will continue to play on a lot of winning teams in his career and be a core guy on those squads.
As always, the above is my opinion and my opinion only. Time will tell how accurate I turn out to be.
Next to come in the next 3 days: My personal big board, 2nd round potential targets, a ridiculously pointless mock draft, and maybe a live Q and A on Wednesday night for a couple of hours.
Just 3 days to go until draft night 2015!
Tbird
Winslow will be the 13th player broken down in detail for this draft, but if Larry Bird happens to select someone who I have not broken down yet, I will do that all for you in the days following the draft. Bird has certainly stumped me before, as I didn't do Solomon Hill, Miles Plumlee, or Tyler Hansbrough in the days prior to the draft those years.
But, if he does it again, never fear, because I will have breakdowns on whomever it will be, assuming it is someone I can get tape access to or already have in my possession.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As I dive headfirst into trying to make predictions on what other teams ahead of us may do on Thursday, I see the potential for a few players who are predicted in every mock draft I have seen to go way ahead of us to actually fall to #11.
Devin Booker and Willie Cauley Stein both could easily fall to us with just a couple off odd selections ahead of us, or with deals that we can't predict yet. Stanley Johnson could also fall to us under certain conditions, as could Frank Kaminsky and Cameron Payne. As I have endorsed all 5 of those players for Indiana, any of those selections ultimately would be good for us in my opinion.....though some would be better than others of course.
But, there are scenarios where teams behind us trade up and take players that I wouldn't take, pushing higher rated, unexpected players to us. I have identified 2 such players who at least have a slim possibility of crashing all the way to pick #11, either through strange circumstances, being overrated by the media, or with attitude and background problems scaring teams off.
One such player is Mario Hezonja. I will not be previewing Hezonja unless we select him, as getting full game tape of him has taken me too long to acquire. However, I do have it now, and if we end up with him somehow I'll give it a full breakdown next weekend. Hezonja has some buyout potential issues, along with some serious attitude questions in some people's minds. With Indiana having the very best European scouting staff in the NBA, led by the very well respected Pete Philo, I would assume that Indiana has Hezonja very high on its own board, or at least knows him better than most of the other teams in the league.
The other player I think could unexpectedly fall is Justise Winslow, and you can read his scouting report below:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winslow has a very interesting basketball background. His father Rickie played for one of the most famous and exciting teams college basketball ever produced, the "Phi Slamma Jamma" Houston Cougars, who lost in one of the most thrilling college basketball games ever played, the NCAA championship game in 1983 when they lost to NC State and Coach Jimmy Valvano.
Rickie Winslow was drafted, then bounced around in Europe playing professionally for years, before finally settling down to live in Houston. Rickie served as an assistant coach for a local high school in Houston called St. John's, an elite academic school that prior to Justise attending had never been known for athletics.....but with Justise playing for the tiny school, they managed to win 3 state titles in 4 years in their class. Note that Justise COULD have attended any basketball type factory school in the country, but instead went to the very high academic institution.
Justise's mother, Robin Davis, was a stickler for academics and wanted all of her children to be much more well rounded than the normal athletic minded teenager. She succeeded, as her youngest son has grown up with a rather eclectic personality, having a deep interest in art and history, visiting art museums while on draft workout trips and spending hours watching the History channel. He also has a deep interest in politics and sites Theodore Roosevelt as one of his heroes. His older brother Josh plays football at Dartmouth, and his older sister Bianca plays basketball for the University of Houston. He also has a brother named Brandon, who owns a marketing firm in Los Angeles, and a half brother named Cedric at home.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Justise, if nothing else, has been a player who has experienced tremendous team success. 3 state championships in high school, an undefeated 22-0 record for Team USA, and a national championship in his one season at Duke.
His team USA experience is interesting to me. Winslow actually played up one year out of his class, so he played on teams that included last year's group of rookies, including Elfrid Payton, Aaron Gordon, and many others. To me, that speaks highly of his talents and his popularity with teammates, as he was recruited and accepted as a member of that team.
But, there are at least some nagging issues that I am hearing that may bother some teams. Winslow blew off a radio appearance in NYC the other day on Boomer Esiason's show and got roundly criticized for it. He also got a technical for a borderline dirty play against Virginia last year, and was ejected once and warned several other times while playing in high school.
None of those issues bother me personally, and I totally would take Coach K's recommendations over some high school ref in Texas and a has been QB with a radio show....but still, the fact that teams are often unbelievably queasy about such things this time of year is why I think it as least worth talking about the possibility he could end up here.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winslow, who has the reputation of being a gym rat and tape fiend, played 29 minutes per game last year at Duke, putting up 12.6 PPG and 6.5 RPG. While a struggling shooter from deep prior to last year, for the Blue Devils he shot a very healthy 41.4% from downtown. At the combine, Winslow measured in at 6'6 1/2, which was smaller than most scouts expected. He also had a 6'10 1/4 wingspan, and weighed in at 222lbs. Winslow has an NBA body right now, no question. But what kind of player does he project to be at the next level? Let's put his game under the microscope:
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense will be Winslow's calling card the very first step he takes on an NBA floor. He is a VERY high level defender, basically showing me NO DEFENSIVE WEAKNESSES on tape.
Seriously, his defensive work is scary good. He can guard multiple positions on switches, and I think immediately comes in and defends the opponents best player. He matches up well with all 2 guards, all 3 men, some 4's, and some 1's depending on the matchup.
His body helps him greatly defensively. He can power over ball screens, quickly and balanced in his stance, and has a very high motor. He can physically power through the trash and not "die" on screens, and he can recover very well if he is beaten. Winslow can guard the ball, and he can deny the wings, and he can run through screens. Winslow can use his strength to defend bigger guys in the low post, and he is very adept at stopping on a dime and contesting a pull up jumpshot. Furthermore, being left handed he usually contests higher with his left hand....which perfectly matches the right handed release of most shooters.
Best of all, his motor is relentless. Nobody chases down plays from the backside better than Winslow in this draft, and he actually gives you a bit of rim protection as a 3/4 man/wing defender. His transition defense is excellent, and he never gives up on a play.
On top of all that, he is an outstanding team defender. Many NBA rookies struggle with rotations and fitting in a defensive scheme.....Winslow will not have that problem. Partly because he is a gym rat and tape studier, and partly because he was just brilliantly coached by Team USA and in college, Winslow already understands complex defensive plans and rotations. His intellect and alertness stood out on tape. Winslow can defend multiple offensive actions, can anticipate screens and cuts before they happen, and makes everybody around him defensively better.
When a superior athlete also has high IQ and a very hot motor, that adds up to a top flight NBA defender with experience, and I project that Winslow will be just that. No weaknesses defensively that I see.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Offensively, it isn't nearly as fun to watch or write about, but there are still many things to be excited about.
Winslow is a major weapon in transition, and that is probably the best thing he does right now. What makes him more special than other wings is that he doesn't just simply fill the lanes, although he does that at an extremely high level. What makes him unique to this draft is ability to get the defensive rebound, then push the ball up the floor himself to be a creator in the middle. He is both quick and crafty with the ball, and he can either use a Eurostep to score himself, or drive and kick to open people on both sides of the floor. Pushing the ball up the floor himself is probably the most fun thing about watching him play offense.
Winslow shot a high percentage from 3 point land in college, but I do view that as somewhat of a mirage right now. No one will fear his jump shot from deep in the NBA and no one feared it in college either.
His form is just not very good, nor very consistent.....that is worse to try and correct, because he makes different mistakes form wise from shot to shot. His most common mistake on a catch and shoot is in his "load"....I think Winslow brings the ball up to above his head too early, forcing a small hitch and making his shot too flat. Everyone just about "dips" the ball to get momentum and timing lined up on a shot, so if I were to try and fix Winslow, the first priority would be to get him to dip the ball more consistently to the same spot and at the same speed. He also occasionally dips it to close to his chest, which forces his body to have to lean back to get his shot off. It is a myriad of poor fundamentals, some of which were fixed at Duke some of the time, but not always.
His next mistakes on a catch and shoot are that he fails to "gooseneck" the wrist, instead occasionally turning his wrist to the right as he releases it......add to that the fact that he sometimes lets the ball be influenced off his ring finger/pinky (the pinky finger should be off the ball totally in my view at the release, and the ring finger should point right at the target) and you have a slightly hot mess as a catch and shoot guy.
The prescription from Tbird would be to fix the dip issues first, then tackle the other issues eventually. I think he has the talent to become serviceable from the deeper NBA line, but it will take many thousands of reps, great coaching, and a lot of determination from Winslow himself.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
As a driver is where Winslow can potentially be dynamic, but first he will have to develop some sort of mid range game. At Duke, according to Synergy, Winslow made just 2 off the dribble jump shots all year long.....so on tape, I set out to see what exactly he is doing and how I'd recommend fixing him.
And, I report to you some bad news, which is he has multiple problems that depend on which direction he is going to.
Going to his right, he really struggles with the load again, particularly with trying to get the ball back to his left hand to shoot. He just looks very uncomfortable with the mechanics of doing that. Also, like many young players, he fails to really pound that last dribble hard enough, which causes his knee flex to come too late and forces him out of rhythm.
Going to his left is better, slightly. Going that way he again doesn't dip the ball far enough and dips it too quickly, which causes him to raise the ball up to the firing position before he gets his body square.
The good news is that his footwork is pretty good as a shooter, but there is a lot to fix here on the upper end of his shooting form.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
At this point, he is basically a slasher/driver in the halfcourt, with streaks of being an OK spot up shooter.
As a driver he is really good, which makes him very hard to guard still for many defenders. He gets low with his dribble, and has a very nice crossover dribble below his kneecaps and a very pretty Eurostep in traffic. He can finish with either hand in traffic, seeks out contact and can score despite being bumped with his strength and body control.
If he can develop a consistent jumper, Winslow will be a weapon offensively due to his craftiness. He already can split the defenders when receiving a ball screen, and get by a hard hedge. He also can be a weapon right now in "iso" situations, but he has to turn his back to the defense and use a post up game to do so.....getting a pull up jumper in his arsenal would make teams have to play him honestly instead of just dropping way off him like they already do now.
I do like him as a post player, and if you have Winslow and don't use him down there I think you are hurting yourself. He is so strong there, and has nice moves already and really good footwork. Posting up guards and smaller wings I think is the next wave of the future, and Winslow is going to be really good at doing that.
Also, Winslow is absolute dynamite post feeder. He can make the high low pass in the paint, and he feeds it from all angles on the perimeter and with both hands. I generally think that wings who are good post players themselves make good post feeders, as they understand the importance of it. Paired with Okafor this year, Winslow was a huge help to the big man in putting up the numbers he did. Once Winslow gets a jump shot, he will even be better at this hidden art of the game, as he will have more space in which to operate as a passer.
Last thing to mention: Winslow is a willing and active screener. If you have him on your team, I'd use him to screen all over the floor, and use him like a very active chess piece, moving him all over the board. I also like to take advantage of guys like this by using him as a point forward on certain set plays, since teams lay off of him so much.....by guarding him that way, you can creatively use him to run stuff with him at the top with the ball since he can see the entire floor unpressured.
I'd recommend not trying to "pigeon hole" Winslow into any one thing offensively, instead move him all over the place in a variety of different roles. He would be MUCH better playing on a team who is playing small, with only one post player in the way in a more spread system and style......Winslow wouldn't fit offensively in Memphis for instance, and he won't fit very well if teams insist on pairing him with 2 bigs all the time and playing in a traditional style.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, what do you have in Justise Winslow?
I think we have an extremely intelligent, high IQ, high motor, top shelf defender. He also is a work in progress offensively with a semi high ceiling, and who is still very young and learning to play. He is not a finished product yet by any stretch, but by year 2 or 3 he has the potential to be a high level 2 way player. If he improves his jump shot (no sure thing) then he is a near All Star....a guy who can be the 3rd best player or so on a great team. If he doesn't improve his jumper, he ends up being a role playing defender......either way he has a high floor and pretty high ceiling as well.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Should the Pacers pick him if he is there magically at #11?
The short answer is probably, but let's see who else is there for sure before deciding. Likely though the answer would be yes. It would be hard to imagine how he wouldn't be the top guy on the board, or at least in the top 2 still left?
But you are reading this and thinking....there is NO WAY he is available, right? Let's examine that!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Let's assume these things to be true:
1. The first 6 picks, in some order, to whoever ends up picking, are the two bigs (Okafor and Towns), the two point guards (Mudiay and Russell), and the two Europeans (Porzingas and Hezonja).
By the way, you can use this same way of thinking to assume Hezonja slips, just put Winslow into his spot.
2. Picks 7-10 include Johnson, Kaminsky, somebody trading up to get Turner, and Stein.
3. In this scenario, Indiana would be faced with just about all bigs being gone, but still having Booker, Winslow, and Payne still available.
It's unlikely, but not impossible, that it could play out like that. I see lots of teams inside of the top 10 trading with each other, moving up and back to gain extra assets and/or to get the guy they want specifically. I also think Boston eventually does get up into the top 10 to get either Turner or Stein.
By the way, I believe that Stein "foot injury" rumor today is classic Boston smoke....but we will see.
For now, Winslow and Hezonja I feel are the 2 most likely consensus top 7 guys that could possibly fall to us.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Winslow has a range of NBA players he could be compared to in my opinion.
The worst case: Michael Kidd Gilchrest. I liked MKG coming out of college and in fact I still sort of do, and I think we will find out that Mark Price was an absolute awful shooting coach for him. I still think he is somewhat fixable, and we will see if they can do that down in Charlotte.
I think Winslow, though he has some definite shooting issues, will be much better than that.
So with that in mind, by NBA comparable for Winslow is:
Andre Iguodala.
Iggy is a pure winner, a guy who can guard everyone's top guys and still give you 15pts a night in his prime. Not a great shooter, but just like Winslow does, he makes "momentum" plays and big time key shots that effect the game, plus he plays the right way and does things that help you win. To get the most out of Winslow, you'll want to put as much good shooting as you can around him.
If I am right, Winslow will continue to play on a lot of winning teams in his career and be a core guy on those squads.
As always, the above is my opinion and my opinion only. Time will tell how accurate I turn out to be.
Next to come in the next 3 days: My personal big board, 2nd round potential targets, a ridiculously pointless mock draft, and maybe a live Q and A on Wednesday night for a couple of hours.
Just 3 days to go until draft night 2015!
Tbird
Why so SERIOUS 
Comment