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Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

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  • #1

    Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

    http://basketball.realgm.com/analysi...rt-Will-Opt-In
    The expectation is that Roy Hibbert will exercise his $15.5 million player option for next season and return to the Indiana Pacers.

    Say what you want about Hibbert, but he’s not stupid and that’s precisely the adjective most would use to describe someone that would leave $15.5 million on the table with no guarantee that more money is available elsewhere.

    The Pacers say they fully expect Hibbert to play out the fourth and final season of his contract. Larry Bird, however, made it clear after the conclusion of a lottery season that it might be more beneficial for the team if he did not. Bird, who is more media savvy than his half-assassin, half-aw shucks reputation suggests, knew exactly what he was doing when he very publicly expressed disappointment in Hibbert and that the Pacers will change their playing style next season.

    “We assume he's going to be back and if he comes back, we're probably going to play another style,” Bird said back in April. “And I can't guarantee him anything. He's going to have to earn it.”

    Translation: Roy, you can come back and make $15.5 million, but chances are you won't be playing many minutes while I glare angrily at you from my corner perch at Bankers Life.

    Bird’s proclamation isn’t enough to make Hibbert opt-out, but that doesn’t mean we should assume he wouldn’t do so anyway.

    The Pacers are going to play smaller, shifting from a scheme that won a lot of games and nearly got them to the NBA Finals twice with Hibbert as an anchor. Numerous times this season, especially as they tried get one of the final playoff berths, the Pacers were unable to beat smaller, faster clubs that play without a traditional center.

    With the Golden State Warriors winning the title, teams are going to embrace smallball even more than they have already. That makes Hibbert a tough play, despite the fact that he remained strong on defense even as his offensive game crumbled over the last year-plus.

    Does Hibbert really want to play behind Luis Scola and Ian Mahinmi?

    No matter how bad things have looked since February 2014, it was a no-brainer for the Pacers to match the four-year, $58 million offer Hibbert received from the Portland Trail Blazers in 2011 after the lockout. He was a crucial part of a roster that was built to beat the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade-Chris Bosh incarnation of the Miami Heat. Indiana couldn’t break through, losing to Miami three times in the playoffs, but they often stood toe-to-toe with the two-time champions. Without Hibbert, that’s impossible.

    Signs that Hibbert might be done with Indiana began during the weeks leading up to the 2014 playoffs. He struggled in the early rounds, but Frank Vogel stuck with him knowing his size and rim protection would still be vital against Miami. Vogel was right, but that’s no longer the case.

    Things shifted immeasurably last summer when LeBron returned to Cleveland, Lance Stephenson departed for a stopover with the Charlotte Hornets and Paul George broke his leg with Team USA. Rivals for a good stretch, the Pacers and Heat are no longer the same.

    Hibbert’s minutes declined significantly in 14-15 as he turned into a shell of his former self, specifically on the offensive end. Hibbert's value was always more on defense, but watching him operate in the paint recently has been an act of masochism. It seemed more often than not that he was flipping the ball at the rim in hopes of a favorable bounce.

    His rebounding and defensive metrics have remained largely stable. His defensive rebounding percentage was actually better in 14-15, but he wasn’t competing with Stephenson or George on the glass either. However, he ventured further and further away from the basket on the other end. A career-low 21.7 percent of his attempts came at the rim as he settled into a mid-range game (a career-high 21.1 percent of his looks). The Pacers admittedly looked different this season than they had in recent years, but that doesn’t mean the biggest guy on the floor shouldn’t be inclined to (and effective at) setting up shop in the post.

    Is a fresh start and long-term money at the age of 28 worth leaving several million in guaranteed money on the table?

    Indications that Hibbert’s future with the Pacers was limited weren’t subtle during the season, but they have become even more obvious of late.

    Hibbert is spending this offseason in Los Angeles and he’s been very quiet on social media. He didn’t speak with reporters following Indiana’s season finale against Memphis, which ended the team’s playoff hopes and saw Hibbert post just seven points and four rebounds in 25 minutes.

    He had been a staple at the annual Caroline Symmes Memorial Celebrity Softball Challenge, alongside Robert Mathis of the Colts, but he missed the event for the first time since 2009 earlier this month. Using L.A. as a base this offseason certainly doesn’t preclude an athlete from hoping on a flight back to Indianapolis to keep up appearances. His absence wouldn’t be noteworthy if it weren’t for the other signs.

    Hibbert has also disbanded Area 55, a section of loyal fans at Bankers Life, for the upcoming season. An odd move for a player that was once beloved and seems to need as much support as possible from fans that have blamed the center for much that has gone wrong over the last 16 months.

    This all seems fishy, doesn’t it?

    When discussing the possibility that Hibbert might actually pass on $15.5 million and become a free agent, it’s imperative that you consider that he’s unlike the stereotypical NBA player.

    He’s very introspective, sensitive, intellectual and incredibly hard on himself. Among desensitized players, it has always been easy to read Hibbert’s mental state during and after a game. You could use his facial expressions as a reliable gauge to determine how he, and often the Pacers, played on any given night.

    Those are some of the reasons why I wouldn’t be shocked if Hibbert opted out of contract this month. His agent, David Falk, has repeatedly said the decision won’t be discussed publicly and told Scott Agness of Vigilant Sports that he “will inform the Pacers first when a decision is made.”

    Hibbert could still be mulling over the decision, or he may have made it months ago. Falk is a respected agent that has advised Hibbert of the outcomes either way. Even if he’s largely glued to the bench in 15-16, a $15.5 million paycheck is a significant one. If he opts out, he can hit the free agent market before his value decreases further and serve as a fallback option for the many teams already lining up offers for other defense-first big men like Tyson Chandler and DeAndre Jordan.

    There are arguments either way, despite how simple a decision it seems on the surface. Hibbert has become unpredictable on the court, which is why he just might decide to end his tenure with the Pacers prematurely.
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  • #2
    Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

    I didn't realize that Roy didn't participate in any interviews after the Memphis game and that he's not working out in Indianapolis but that is interesting considering he has always in the past worked closely with the Pacers training staff. I'm really curious to know how Roy's season ending interview went. I could speculate on that but I won't. However, I certainly got the impression that Bird is not happy with Roy and worded his statements during the press conference in a way to push him to leave. The comment about "Lance isn't stealing his rebounds" (paraphrasing) when asked about Roy's job performance was very harsh and seemed to be a deliberate jab. Larry the trash talker came out for moment when talking about Roy and I'm sure Roy didn't like it.

    Then Vogel comes out and agrees with Larry saying that Roy's role is going to be reduced. Basically Frank removed his support of Roy which is huge because I don't think he's ever had anything negative to say about Roy, even when Roy was failing against the Hawks last year he was very apologetic regarding his play. He could've easily replied by saying that Roy is the best rim-protecting Center in the league, which has been his automatic stock reply whenever someone criticized him in the media. Now the days of coddling Roy seem to be over and even if he comes back in great shape and ready to play, he's going to have to prove himself all over again.

    Maybe he'll just decide that it's time for a change, opt out, and go play for Dallas once they wiff on getting Deandre Jordan and Marc Gasol. Wouldn't that be something?
    Last edited by naptownmenace; 06-19-2015, 03:13 PM.

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    • #3
      Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

      Originally posted by naptownmenace View Post
      I'm really curious to know how Roy's season ending interview went. I could speculate on that but I won't. However, I certainly got the impression that Bird is not happy with Roy and worded his statements during the press conference in a way to push him to leave.

      I didn't realize that Roy didn't participate in any interviews after the Memphis game and that he's not working out in Indianapolis but that is interesting considering he has always in the past worked closely with the Pacers training staff.
      also no Area 55 next season and didn't participate in the celebrity softball game at Victory Field. He may just be trying to distance himself to help clear his mind about Indy... honestly though who knows... we will find out in ten days

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      • #4
        Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

        I really like Roy as a person, but the past couple of years not as a player. I think he would benefit from a change of scenario. I want him off the Pacers for multiple reasons but wherever he ends up next I hope he returns to old and happy Roy that we had a couple years ago

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        • #5
          Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

          I find a thread that is titled "why we shouldn't assume that Hibbert will Opt In" coming from a Poster named "Hibbert" to be suspect

          I've said this before; it's likely that Hibbert will opt in, get paid his $15 mil and then demand a trade if he's not happy.
          Last edited by CableKC; 06-19-2015, 03:37 PM.
          Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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          • #6
            Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

            Also, area 55 is no longer
            "So, which one of you guys is going to come in second?" - Larry Bird before the 3 point contest. He won.


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            • #7
              Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

              As one of Roy's more vocal critics I will freely admit that when he is gone (whenever that is and for whatever reason) I will probably have moments of great regret that he is gone. He has had a great run with our club but it's ending in a way that is going to leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth (Roy included).


              Basketball isn't played with computers, spreadsheets, and simulations. ChicagoJ 4/21/13

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              • #8
                Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                Originally posted by Peck View Post
                As one of Roy's more vocal critics I will freely admit that when he is gone (whenever that is and for whatever reason) I will probably have moments of great regret that he is gone. He has had a great run with our club but it's ending in a way that is going to leave a bad taste in everyone's mouth (Roy included).
                I think you are right. I never dissed Roy until this last season was over. At the end of the day he helped our team and was a part of the team. He was a part of the community. He was a true Pacer. I truly believe both parties will prevail by parting ways. I would not be shocked if Roy left and went somewhere he felt wanted with a fresh start.


                "Pacers will win 50 games this season" 07-16-2015
                "Ian will average 10-10 this season" 10-21-15

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                • #9
                  Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                  Personally I think Roy will opt in (mainly because it is too much $$ to way away from and he won't get a similar contract in free agency) and his minutes will be drastically reduced (and he'll most likely lose his starting job)
                  "So, which one of you guys is going to come in second?" - Larry Bird before the 3 point contest. He won.


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                  • #10
                    Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                    Roy has 15.5 million reasons to return.

                    However, it does surprise me that it's come to this point. Just a few seasons ago, Roy was thought of as personable, funny, and one of the young building blocks of what was a promising core. Now, the relationship has clearly soured, and both sides can share some of the blame.

                    Things seemed to torpedo south when Roy pointed fingers at Lance in last season's playoffs, and it's really been a trainwreck from there. Pacers management hasn't done the relationship any favors by pretty much daring Roy to decline the option and saying they're going to bench him this offseason.
                    Last edited by PR07; 06-19-2015, 04:52 PM.

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                    • #11
                      Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In


                      Rocky is Hibbert, Micky is Larry Bird
                      Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

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                      • #12
                        Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                        Originally posted by Pacergeek View Post


                        Rocky is Hibbert, Micky is Larry Bird
                        I havent watched the movie in so long....but doesn't this ( in some way ) serve as motiviation for Rocky to push himself and to win that fight against Creed at the end of the movie?

                        Are you suggesting that Hibbert can pull a Rocky and do much better this season compared to last ( which would only increase the chance that Bird takes another chance with him in the Summer of 2016 )?
                        Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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                        • #13
                          Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                          It's pretty much wishful thinking.

                          There's the rise in cap next summer along with the guarantee of $15.5M this year that is going up against the writer's train of thought.

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                          • #14
                            Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                            Originally posted by CableKC View Post
                            I havent watched the movie in so long....but doesn't this ( in some way ) serve as motiviation for Rocky to push himself and to win that fight against Creed at the end of the movie?

                            Are you suggesting that Hibbert can pull a Rocky and do much better this season compared to last ( which would only increase the chance that Bird takes another chance with him in the Summer of 2016 )?
                            Yes. Mickey does get through to Rocky to start training harder, and he does defeat Creed at the end.

                            I think that Bird is trying to get through to Hibbert with his overly critical comments, that he has to work harder. It was obvious this past season, that Roy didn't put in the work to improve last summer. Bird is trying to save Roy's career, just like Mickey saved Rocky's career
                            Being unable to close out a game in which you have a comfortable lead in the 4th Q = Pulling a Frank Vogel

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                            • #15
                              Re: Good Read: Why We Shoudn't Assume Roy Hibbert Will Opt In

                              Originally posted by CableKC View Post
                              I havent watched the movie in so long....but doesn't this ( in some way ) serve as motiviation for Rocky to push himself and to win that fight against Creed at the end of the movie?

                              Are you suggesting that Hibbert can pull a Rocky and do much better this season compared to last ( which would only increase the chance that Bird takes another chance with him in the Summer of 2016 )?
                              If Bird resigns Hibbert after this year, I might be done with the Pacers until we get different management.

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