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7 days until draft night as I type this, so today we head to the Bluegrass state yet again, but this time to the city of Murray rather than Lexington. Murray State is of course home to one of the nation's best small school programs, and this year they have produced yet again another NBA prospect in PG Cameron Payne.
Payne was lightly regarded coming out of high school, where he attended Lausanne Collegiate Prep school, which is a private school in the suburbs of Memphis, Tennessee. Payne managed to lead LCP to the Tennessee 2A private school state championship in 2013, despite being 5'11 and 160lbs during that season. Despite some late overtures from other, better known programs such as Wichita State, Payne opted to keep his commitment to Murray State and head to the Ohio Valley Conference. Payne was Tennessee Mr. Basketball in 2013, so the narrative that he is an unknown at that time is overblown, but it is true that people seemed to under-estimate his potential. Everyone that is but the coaches at Murray.
His college recruiters believed that if Payne could grow, that his game would make rapid advancements, and finally the maturity and weight training at Murray led to Payne eventually measuring in at the NBA combine at 6'1 1/2, and 183lbs, albeit still on a small, rail thin frame. He also measured with way above average hand size, and with a wing span of 6'7 1/4.
While Payne clearly lacks weight and needs to add significant strength I believe, a true NBA diet and strength program will help him more than most others, since Murray lacks the resources and personnel that the big time money programs do to devote to that. Payne will have I think (I hope) a significant stronger body in 2 years than he does now, and he will need to have to reach his utmost potential.
Born on August 8, 1994, Payne will be 21 this summer, having played 2 years for Coach Prohm at Murray. Perhaps one of the most popular players in Murray State's long history, Payne was honored this year by receiving their "Popeye Jones" award at their season ending banquet for over all on and off the court excellence. Jones is a Pacer assistant of course, as most of you are aware of.
As part of the preparation for this report, I actually watched their awards banquet. I must admit that I have rarely seen in that way such a love for a kid's personality that their program showed Payne...the event sort of became a tribute to Payne and his family while also honoring the overall team.
Raised by Tony Payne Sr and LeShawn Payne, Cameron grew up in a upper middle class suburb of Memphis. Always much smaller than his classmates (his Dad is 5'7), he and his brother nevertheless played on the areas better AAU teams, with his Dad as an assistant coach. His home was also the neighborhood hangout, because they always had a basketball court at their house that was nicer than the other choices. His mother was quite a character in her own right, becoming famous for her T-shirt that she made of Cameron, and her loving treatment of Payne's teammates. Murray State is a very similar to a strong high school program in Indiana, very much a community based passion that many of us who grew up here understand, a program that has all the charm and little of the big money cynicism we see in often in major college athletics.
I am attaching the video of that banquet here. http://www.goracers.com/news/2015/4/...427152610.aspx
My favorite part comes at the 1:06 and 35 second mark, when Cameron's mom LeShawn is invited to speak, and does so very eloquently and emotionally about Cameron's experiences at Murray. LeShawn Payne would be a really good candidate for her own Campbell's soup commercial someday to replace Donovan McNabb's mother I think.
When you are always the tiniest kid in the neighborhood, you tend to develop a toughness and skill level so you can compete with your bigger friends and classmates. Payne also developed a charismatic, fearless edge to his game that shows up on the court. He was so beloved by fans at Murray that he often got invited to local kids birthday parties and events, and clearly became the face of their program after Isaiah Canaan left. Payne spent last summer traveling to China as part of the Christian Sports Ministry Reach program, and thrived in the small fishbowl that playing in the unique culture of Murray State can be.
Clearly, this kid has the background and character traits you hunt for in a player and lead guard. But how does his game translate to the next level? Let me put him under the microscope down below:
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At Murray State, Payne put up some of the best raw numbers in the country offensively. 20.3 PPG with 6.0 APG, with just over 2.5 turnovers per night. 78.3%FT, and 37.3% from deep, despite taking several questionable and highly difficult shots. He was such a high usage player, that I do think it is acceptable to wonder how he will play if his role is reduced at the NBA level, which it clearly will have to be. Still, there is no questioning that Payne was productive, and also efficient, as he had the 3rd highest efficiency rating in college basketball.
Those are the raw numbers, but now let's take a deeper look.
As a shooter, the lefty guard Payne has a very interesting shot form that I want to try and describe to you.
His lower body, particularly his feet, are NEVER pointed to the target....instead, they are consistently pointed at about 2 o'clock. While most of you weren't taught that way, he is just an extreme example of what I believe to be the proper way to set your feet while shooting, as that positioning allows your shooting elbow to line up at the target easier, instead of being off line. In other words, I LOVE THIS KID'S FEET PLACEMENT WHILE SHOOTING. It clearly makes him shoot it straighter with a quicker release, and he no doubt learned that quick trigger as a youngster who was so small he couldn't get his shot off any other way.
His upper body is a little more unconventional, and again it all stems I think from being so small and learning how to shoot before his body has caught up to him. His upper body also often turns a bit toward 2 o'clock, but instead of what a small kid would usually do, which is site the rim from just to the right of the ball, he actually sites it through his left eye...which is a bit weird. But, because his upper body is also turned too far, it all counter balances and ends up being very well done.....he is just has a "sidewinder" type of form.
He also brings his right hand up a little further up in the shooting motion than you might normally see, but it still leaves in plenty of time to not affect the shot. Payne has very good follow through and form and rarely misses either to the right or the left. He does shoot a rather flat shot when he misses, but that is offset for the most part by having the quickest release in the draft!
I have lots of things to wonder about in regards to his shooting. 1), How much will the added strength he gains effect eventually his shot form, and will it be helpful or hurtful? 2) How much will the added fatigue of an NBA season effect him negatively, but how much will playing less minutes and a smaller role perhaps help him? 3) Will the added length of the defenders he faces be offset enough of the time by taking better shots overall?
Whatever doubts that exist in regards to his jumper, it is clearly a major weapon right now. Particularly going to his right, his off the dribble game from distance is already at a high level, and he will need to be accounted for by NBA defenses.
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Murray ran a lot of NBA like ballscreen actions for Payne, and I think Payne projects to be a very good weapon as a ballhandler in these situations.
Payne can pretty much do every single thing you would want a PG to do for you offensively off a ballscreen. Defense goes under, he stops and buries a long jumper in your grill. Trap him, and he will find the open man no matter where he is on the court. Payne excels and making the pocket pass, and he can make any delivery you want, with either hand going in either direction. Payne is a particular maestro when he uses the ballscreen twice in a possession, changing direction and putting his defenders on ice skates. He is unselfish, sees the entire floor, can make every pass, and score himself as well with a highly advanced floater game, although he is too reliant on it even now. I don't really understand that criticism, because at his small size you wouldn't want him crashing into people anyway....he SHOULD be relying on floaters if he is in the paint, that is what his size dictates he do.
Yes, he will need to get stronger and much more athletic. And very much yes, he will need to develop a right hand near the rim as he is way too easy to guard right now because he is so one handed shooting the ball.
Having said all of that, it is very clear right now that teams will guard him by staying home on the shooters, dropping their big man into the paint, having their point guard fight over the screen, and try to force him to be a finisher instead of a passer.....that is what I would do and I am sure that is what most teams will do. That is why that screener needs to be an excellent player as well at making the pop shot, or if you are diving that guy to the rim then you'll want to "replace" that guy at the top so he has a back pass to a shooter.
Creativity as a staff can get you a long way with a guy as skilled as Payne is in the pick and roll. He handles the ball on a string, has huge hands to handle it, gets extremely low to the ground when he splits the defense, and will excel as on making the lob pass to a diver or in getting quick drag screens in transition. Payne was the best, most efficient play maker in the country during the first 10 seconds of a possession, and he plays much better in space than he does in crowds, so if you take him you need to be running to get the most out of him. He is a very modern day pace and space, ball screen point guard.
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But, he isn't JUST that. I have him rated as the best player coming off of floppy action off the ball of any player in this draft, just ahead of Devin Booker. Booker is a better pure shooter, but Payne has a much quicker release and is way faster and more clever in using acceleration and different speeds to get freedom and space to shoot, plus he can do more with the ball once he gets it.
As an off ball cutter on this type of action, Payne can be a major weapon, and depending on who he goes to, this may actually be how he is used more often early in his career. On the left side of the floor coming around to his right, his release and footwork is so fast that it totally negates his lack of size, and he is very accurate.
Coming from the right side toward the middle of the floor, he isn't quite as good or as fast, and these instances he is much more likely to drive the basketball. He has to "hop" a bit into his shot to get his moving parts all lined up, and it takes longer and isn't quite as smooth. I am definitely as a defender going to force Payne to his left, which is his strong hand I know but he is less of a threat to pull up going that way.
But, here is the problem: Against rough and tumble, physical NBA defense he right now will lack the strength to survive all of the clutching and grabbing that happens in plays like this. So, once again, whatever team that gets him is going to have to get him significantly stronger to take advantage of his high level skills. Right now, a team would just bump him and grab him, and therefore he couldn't function as a cutter very well. Illegal yes, but rarely called.
Overall all offensively, he is a great ballhandler, has tremendous court vision, is very unselfish, is an unconventional but good shooter, and will be an offensive weapon both on and off the ball IF IF IF a team is creative with their schemes, is patient, and can build his body up to the point where it needs to be. His lack of strength won't keep him off the floor, but it will keep him from reaching his full potential. He has to improve his right hand and ability to finish around the rim......which getting stronger will do, and he has to groove those floaters over time to simply be better at them than he currently is.
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Defensively, right now Payne is a sieve.
He will be so good on offense that I think you can live with that against the backup guards in the league, so if you are only drafting Payne to be a long term backup guard who makes your 2nd unit function much better and gives it scoring punch, then so be it. That may indeed end up being his destiny.
But if you want him to eventually become more than that, then major defensive work is going to have to be done. And yes, it starts on his very lean and not very strong physique.....Payne simply has got to gain 15 or so lbs of strength and power to be able to play against other top notch guards and actually be on the winning team. Chris Paul is small, but tough and powerful. Brandon Jennings is small, but still weak and not very tough. Chris Paul's teams win, Brandon Jennings teams lose. So, to reach his ceiling, Payne has to get stronger.
Next, you've got to surround him with above average defenders on the perimeter. You'll want to hide Payne early on in his first few years, so you'll need to be able to put him on someone's 3rd option if you can. In other words, someone else is going to have to defend all of these other freak athlete point guards, because they would kill Payne for the first few years in the league and perhaps always will.
After that, you'll need to pair him with a wing protector, because he is still going to get beaten some and you need to mitigate that the best you can. Not to compare him with Tony Parker, but you can see some poor man's Parker in Payne's game....but Parker played in a great system, was developed correctly, and had superior defenders like George Hill, Bruce Bowen, Kawhi Leonard, and Tim Duncan playing with him to accentuate his strengths and hide his shortcomings. Put Parker on the Denver Nuggets or Sacramento Kings all those years ago and his career is remarkably different I bet.
Payne is not Parker, don't think I am saying that because I am not.....Parker was doing at age 18 what Payne is doing at 21, and at a higher level. But they have similar weaknesses defensively and similar body types.
I went thru rosters last night of some NBA starting lineups, trying to figure out who we would/could guard among NBA starters. If you are playing Atlanta for instance....who does Payne guard among their starters? Teague would kill him, so I guess you try and hide him on Carroll. Playing OKC, Westbrook would murder him, so you'd have to hide him on Waiters or Morrow or whomever. You could hide him against Cleveland because he could handle JR Smith or Shumpert maybe, but against Chicago there is no starter he could hide him on and survive. Most teams at this point will manhandle him on that end.
His defense will improve eventually over time I am pretty sure, even though that is all projection with no real evidence to support it. He has great length, and when he is locked in he has shown some defensive capabilities. He slides his feet well, just not for very long or very consistently. Payne does get the occasional steal and he is a gambler defensively, so he makes the big play at times. At this level, improvement is going to be a must for him.
I will say this: I now believe that teams are better at developing defenders or in hiding bad ones than they are necessarily building or teaching skills that Payne already possesses. Therefore, I am not docking bad college defenders quite as badly as I used to. In years past Payne's bad defense at the point of attack would have turned me off so much I wouldn't have been able to stand it, but as the NBA game changes some I am personally trying to look at things thru a new lens as well.
Payne's offensive abilities will likely more than offset his defensive weaknesses eventually, the question is just how much he can improve them.....that will determine his ultimate NBA status.
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So, what do we have in Cameron Payne?
I think we have a high character, charismatic guard who projects to be a fun to watch and highly effective offensive player. He will be MUCH BETTER in a spread, pick and roll type of attack than he would be in other systems, and a clever coach will try and find ways to run sets for him coming off baseline screens as well. He projects to be a really strong offensive weapon right away in ball screens and in transition. He also is a much below average defender who I think will become better over time, and who can play with more energy and focus defensively after adding strength and perhaps playing fewer minutes. I think he is a high level back up point guard who can play occasionally in double point guard type lineups in the right matchup and system, and who will eventually become an NBA starting point guard once he adds strength to his frame and power to his game.
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For Indiana, at #11, Payne has to be under strong consideration. You have to think about Payne in context of who you plan to keep long term, and how you plan to build your team from a scheme and personnel standpoint. From a personnel standpoint, we are a good fit for Payne for a lot of reasons: George Hill can mitigate some of his weaknesses and is good enough defensively to let us play a double point guard lineup if we wish. Paul George is a way above average defender on the wing (and the Pacers think Solomon Hill is also), so you can afford to play a little bit weaker point guard with those guys out there with him, and Roy Hibbert is still despite his flaws a strong rim protector.
So personnel wise he fits, and we desperately need an offensive minded point guard to bring along, and to help our paltry 2nd unit.
Scheme wise, he isn't a fit as the Pacers have been currently playing. We don't have a strong P/R spread attack scheme, and he won't be able to run as much here as he will in other cities, because despite the press soundbites, I still anticipate Indiana, based on current personnel and staff, to play more halfcourt basketball than most other teams, at least right now. We lack a good high ballscreener to unleash his ballscreen game mainly, as we don't have anyone who is really good at setting that screen action.
Of course, 2 years from now that may all be different, so all of that isn't a huge factor, but it does have to factor in some, because I think in an ideal world you are looking for the perfect fit...and Payne isn't perfect.
In my case, I would strongly consider Payne at #11, but I would take other guys I have previewed so far over him if they were available. I like (in alphabetical order) Booker, Johnson, Kaminsky, and Stein slightly more also just because a rim protector of his caliber is harder to find. If one of those 4 guys (or someone else unexpectedly slips that I like) is there I would take them over Payne. If they are all gone....then I'd be happy with the small dynamic point guard from Bartlett Tennessee. Payne I do think would be fun to have on the team and to watch play and grow.
It is easy to see them all being gone by the way....Stein to Sacramento at #6, Booker at #9, Johnson at #7 or #8 or #10, Kaminsky at #8 or #10......those are all possible to happen. If so, Payne will be a Pacer a week from now and will start the business of trying to figure out what pieces need to go with him.
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Those who love Payne clearly think he will be better than this, but I ask you all this: How is he significantly better than Jeremy Lin? I think they are similar players, if Payne never really improves from where he is right now. I'd rather have Payne because he is younger and I think he will clearly improve to past the point where Lin is, but right now I think they are pretty close.
I like Lin by the way, and if we don't draft a point guard like Payne, I'd strongly think about signing him as our backup next year in what appears to me to be a pretty weak class of free agents at that position.
But, because I do think Payne will improve some, I am giving him a comparable of another mid major (at the time) left handed guard who excelled as an offensive NBA guard for many years, and who was one of my favorite players back in the day....a guy who didn't really guard that well, but who was so good on offense he played a lot in anyway or average to above average teams:
NBA comparable: Nick Van Exel
As always, the above opinions are my own. I know there will be much disagreement, and I certainly am fine with that. I try to put my own coaching and Pacers fan eyes on these guys from how I think they'd fit with us and in the league as whole, but how much they improve after next Thursday will ultimately be much more important to the ultimate accuracy of this report more than anything I have written or said.
Also, I am adding an additional player to this list, so I will have 13 players broken down when this is all said and done this year.....I am going to do Bobby Portis next, and I have identified one potential player who may unexpectedly fall to #11 (I doubt it, but its possible) that I think is worth discussing.
This time until next time.....
Tbird
Payne was lightly regarded coming out of high school, where he attended Lausanne Collegiate Prep school, which is a private school in the suburbs of Memphis, Tennessee. Payne managed to lead LCP to the Tennessee 2A private school state championship in 2013, despite being 5'11 and 160lbs during that season. Despite some late overtures from other, better known programs such as Wichita State, Payne opted to keep his commitment to Murray State and head to the Ohio Valley Conference. Payne was Tennessee Mr. Basketball in 2013, so the narrative that he is an unknown at that time is overblown, but it is true that people seemed to under-estimate his potential. Everyone that is but the coaches at Murray.
His college recruiters believed that if Payne could grow, that his game would make rapid advancements, and finally the maturity and weight training at Murray led to Payne eventually measuring in at the NBA combine at 6'1 1/2, and 183lbs, albeit still on a small, rail thin frame. He also measured with way above average hand size, and with a wing span of 6'7 1/4.
While Payne clearly lacks weight and needs to add significant strength I believe, a true NBA diet and strength program will help him more than most others, since Murray lacks the resources and personnel that the big time money programs do to devote to that. Payne will have I think (I hope) a significant stronger body in 2 years than he does now, and he will need to have to reach his utmost potential.
Born on August 8, 1994, Payne will be 21 this summer, having played 2 years for Coach Prohm at Murray. Perhaps one of the most popular players in Murray State's long history, Payne was honored this year by receiving their "Popeye Jones" award at their season ending banquet for over all on and off the court excellence. Jones is a Pacer assistant of course, as most of you are aware of.
As part of the preparation for this report, I actually watched their awards banquet. I must admit that I have rarely seen in that way such a love for a kid's personality that their program showed Payne...the event sort of became a tribute to Payne and his family while also honoring the overall team.
Raised by Tony Payne Sr and LeShawn Payne, Cameron grew up in a upper middle class suburb of Memphis. Always much smaller than his classmates (his Dad is 5'7), he and his brother nevertheless played on the areas better AAU teams, with his Dad as an assistant coach. His home was also the neighborhood hangout, because they always had a basketball court at their house that was nicer than the other choices. His mother was quite a character in her own right, becoming famous for her T-shirt that she made of Cameron, and her loving treatment of Payne's teammates. Murray State is a very similar to a strong high school program in Indiana, very much a community based passion that many of us who grew up here understand, a program that has all the charm and little of the big money cynicism we see in often in major college athletics.
I am attaching the video of that banquet here. http://www.goracers.com/news/2015/4/...427152610.aspx
My favorite part comes at the 1:06 and 35 second mark, when Cameron's mom LeShawn is invited to speak, and does so very eloquently and emotionally about Cameron's experiences at Murray. LeShawn Payne would be a really good candidate for her own Campbell's soup commercial someday to replace Donovan McNabb's mother I think.
When you are always the tiniest kid in the neighborhood, you tend to develop a toughness and skill level so you can compete with your bigger friends and classmates. Payne also developed a charismatic, fearless edge to his game that shows up on the court. He was so beloved by fans at Murray that he often got invited to local kids birthday parties and events, and clearly became the face of their program after Isaiah Canaan left. Payne spent last summer traveling to China as part of the Christian Sports Ministry Reach program, and thrived in the small fishbowl that playing in the unique culture of Murray State can be.
Clearly, this kid has the background and character traits you hunt for in a player and lead guard. But how does his game translate to the next level? Let me put him under the microscope down below:
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At Murray State, Payne put up some of the best raw numbers in the country offensively. 20.3 PPG with 6.0 APG, with just over 2.5 turnovers per night. 78.3%FT, and 37.3% from deep, despite taking several questionable and highly difficult shots. He was such a high usage player, that I do think it is acceptable to wonder how he will play if his role is reduced at the NBA level, which it clearly will have to be. Still, there is no questioning that Payne was productive, and also efficient, as he had the 3rd highest efficiency rating in college basketball.
Those are the raw numbers, but now let's take a deeper look.
As a shooter, the lefty guard Payne has a very interesting shot form that I want to try and describe to you.
His lower body, particularly his feet, are NEVER pointed to the target....instead, they are consistently pointed at about 2 o'clock. While most of you weren't taught that way, he is just an extreme example of what I believe to be the proper way to set your feet while shooting, as that positioning allows your shooting elbow to line up at the target easier, instead of being off line. In other words, I LOVE THIS KID'S FEET PLACEMENT WHILE SHOOTING. It clearly makes him shoot it straighter with a quicker release, and he no doubt learned that quick trigger as a youngster who was so small he couldn't get his shot off any other way.
His upper body is a little more unconventional, and again it all stems I think from being so small and learning how to shoot before his body has caught up to him. His upper body also often turns a bit toward 2 o'clock, but instead of what a small kid would usually do, which is site the rim from just to the right of the ball, he actually sites it through his left eye...which is a bit weird. But, because his upper body is also turned too far, it all counter balances and ends up being very well done.....he is just has a "sidewinder" type of form.
He also brings his right hand up a little further up in the shooting motion than you might normally see, but it still leaves in plenty of time to not affect the shot. Payne has very good follow through and form and rarely misses either to the right or the left. He does shoot a rather flat shot when he misses, but that is offset for the most part by having the quickest release in the draft!
I have lots of things to wonder about in regards to his shooting. 1), How much will the added strength he gains effect eventually his shot form, and will it be helpful or hurtful? 2) How much will the added fatigue of an NBA season effect him negatively, but how much will playing less minutes and a smaller role perhaps help him? 3) Will the added length of the defenders he faces be offset enough of the time by taking better shots overall?
Whatever doubts that exist in regards to his jumper, it is clearly a major weapon right now. Particularly going to his right, his off the dribble game from distance is already at a high level, and he will need to be accounted for by NBA defenses.
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Murray ran a lot of NBA like ballscreen actions for Payne, and I think Payne projects to be a very good weapon as a ballhandler in these situations.
Payne can pretty much do every single thing you would want a PG to do for you offensively off a ballscreen. Defense goes under, he stops and buries a long jumper in your grill. Trap him, and he will find the open man no matter where he is on the court. Payne excels and making the pocket pass, and he can make any delivery you want, with either hand going in either direction. Payne is a particular maestro when he uses the ballscreen twice in a possession, changing direction and putting his defenders on ice skates. He is unselfish, sees the entire floor, can make every pass, and score himself as well with a highly advanced floater game, although he is too reliant on it even now. I don't really understand that criticism, because at his small size you wouldn't want him crashing into people anyway....he SHOULD be relying on floaters if he is in the paint, that is what his size dictates he do.
Yes, he will need to get stronger and much more athletic. And very much yes, he will need to develop a right hand near the rim as he is way too easy to guard right now because he is so one handed shooting the ball.
Having said all of that, it is very clear right now that teams will guard him by staying home on the shooters, dropping their big man into the paint, having their point guard fight over the screen, and try to force him to be a finisher instead of a passer.....that is what I would do and I am sure that is what most teams will do. That is why that screener needs to be an excellent player as well at making the pop shot, or if you are diving that guy to the rim then you'll want to "replace" that guy at the top so he has a back pass to a shooter.
Creativity as a staff can get you a long way with a guy as skilled as Payne is in the pick and roll. He handles the ball on a string, has huge hands to handle it, gets extremely low to the ground when he splits the defense, and will excel as on making the lob pass to a diver or in getting quick drag screens in transition. Payne was the best, most efficient play maker in the country during the first 10 seconds of a possession, and he plays much better in space than he does in crowds, so if you take him you need to be running to get the most out of him. He is a very modern day pace and space, ball screen point guard.
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But, he isn't JUST that. I have him rated as the best player coming off of floppy action off the ball of any player in this draft, just ahead of Devin Booker. Booker is a better pure shooter, but Payne has a much quicker release and is way faster and more clever in using acceleration and different speeds to get freedom and space to shoot, plus he can do more with the ball once he gets it.
As an off ball cutter on this type of action, Payne can be a major weapon, and depending on who he goes to, this may actually be how he is used more often early in his career. On the left side of the floor coming around to his right, his release and footwork is so fast that it totally negates his lack of size, and he is very accurate.
Coming from the right side toward the middle of the floor, he isn't quite as good or as fast, and these instances he is much more likely to drive the basketball. He has to "hop" a bit into his shot to get his moving parts all lined up, and it takes longer and isn't quite as smooth. I am definitely as a defender going to force Payne to his left, which is his strong hand I know but he is less of a threat to pull up going that way.
But, here is the problem: Against rough and tumble, physical NBA defense he right now will lack the strength to survive all of the clutching and grabbing that happens in plays like this. So, once again, whatever team that gets him is going to have to get him significantly stronger to take advantage of his high level skills. Right now, a team would just bump him and grab him, and therefore he couldn't function as a cutter very well. Illegal yes, but rarely called.
Overall all offensively, he is a great ballhandler, has tremendous court vision, is very unselfish, is an unconventional but good shooter, and will be an offensive weapon both on and off the ball IF IF IF a team is creative with their schemes, is patient, and can build his body up to the point where it needs to be. His lack of strength won't keep him off the floor, but it will keep him from reaching his full potential. He has to improve his right hand and ability to finish around the rim......which getting stronger will do, and he has to groove those floaters over time to simply be better at them than he currently is.
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Defensively, right now Payne is a sieve.
He will be so good on offense that I think you can live with that against the backup guards in the league, so if you are only drafting Payne to be a long term backup guard who makes your 2nd unit function much better and gives it scoring punch, then so be it. That may indeed end up being his destiny.
But if you want him to eventually become more than that, then major defensive work is going to have to be done. And yes, it starts on his very lean and not very strong physique.....Payne simply has got to gain 15 or so lbs of strength and power to be able to play against other top notch guards and actually be on the winning team. Chris Paul is small, but tough and powerful. Brandon Jennings is small, but still weak and not very tough. Chris Paul's teams win, Brandon Jennings teams lose. So, to reach his ceiling, Payne has to get stronger.
Next, you've got to surround him with above average defenders on the perimeter. You'll want to hide Payne early on in his first few years, so you'll need to be able to put him on someone's 3rd option if you can. In other words, someone else is going to have to defend all of these other freak athlete point guards, because they would kill Payne for the first few years in the league and perhaps always will.
After that, you'll need to pair him with a wing protector, because he is still going to get beaten some and you need to mitigate that the best you can. Not to compare him with Tony Parker, but you can see some poor man's Parker in Payne's game....but Parker played in a great system, was developed correctly, and had superior defenders like George Hill, Bruce Bowen, Kawhi Leonard, and Tim Duncan playing with him to accentuate his strengths and hide his shortcomings. Put Parker on the Denver Nuggets or Sacramento Kings all those years ago and his career is remarkably different I bet.
Payne is not Parker, don't think I am saying that because I am not.....Parker was doing at age 18 what Payne is doing at 21, and at a higher level. But they have similar weaknesses defensively and similar body types.
I went thru rosters last night of some NBA starting lineups, trying to figure out who we would/could guard among NBA starters. If you are playing Atlanta for instance....who does Payne guard among their starters? Teague would kill him, so I guess you try and hide him on Carroll. Playing OKC, Westbrook would murder him, so you'd have to hide him on Waiters or Morrow or whomever. You could hide him against Cleveland because he could handle JR Smith or Shumpert maybe, but against Chicago there is no starter he could hide him on and survive. Most teams at this point will manhandle him on that end.
His defense will improve eventually over time I am pretty sure, even though that is all projection with no real evidence to support it. He has great length, and when he is locked in he has shown some defensive capabilities. He slides his feet well, just not for very long or very consistently. Payne does get the occasional steal and he is a gambler defensively, so he makes the big play at times. At this level, improvement is going to be a must for him.
I will say this: I now believe that teams are better at developing defenders or in hiding bad ones than they are necessarily building or teaching skills that Payne already possesses. Therefore, I am not docking bad college defenders quite as badly as I used to. In years past Payne's bad defense at the point of attack would have turned me off so much I wouldn't have been able to stand it, but as the NBA game changes some I am personally trying to look at things thru a new lens as well.
Payne's offensive abilities will likely more than offset his defensive weaknesses eventually, the question is just how much he can improve them.....that will determine his ultimate NBA status.
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So, what do we have in Cameron Payne?
I think we have a high character, charismatic guard who projects to be a fun to watch and highly effective offensive player. He will be MUCH BETTER in a spread, pick and roll type of attack than he would be in other systems, and a clever coach will try and find ways to run sets for him coming off baseline screens as well. He projects to be a really strong offensive weapon right away in ball screens and in transition. He also is a much below average defender who I think will become better over time, and who can play with more energy and focus defensively after adding strength and perhaps playing fewer minutes. I think he is a high level back up point guard who can play occasionally in double point guard type lineups in the right matchup and system, and who will eventually become an NBA starting point guard once he adds strength to his frame and power to his game.
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For Indiana, at #11, Payne has to be under strong consideration. You have to think about Payne in context of who you plan to keep long term, and how you plan to build your team from a scheme and personnel standpoint. From a personnel standpoint, we are a good fit for Payne for a lot of reasons: George Hill can mitigate some of his weaknesses and is good enough defensively to let us play a double point guard lineup if we wish. Paul George is a way above average defender on the wing (and the Pacers think Solomon Hill is also), so you can afford to play a little bit weaker point guard with those guys out there with him, and Roy Hibbert is still despite his flaws a strong rim protector.
So personnel wise he fits, and we desperately need an offensive minded point guard to bring along, and to help our paltry 2nd unit.
Scheme wise, he isn't a fit as the Pacers have been currently playing. We don't have a strong P/R spread attack scheme, and he won't be able to run as much here as he will in other cities, because despite the press soundbites, I still anticipate Indiana, based on current personnel and staff, to play more halfcourt basketball than most other teams, at least right now. We lack a good high ballscreener to unleash his ballscreen game mainly, as we don't have anyone who is really good at setting that screen action.
Of course, 2 years from now that may all be different, so all of that isn't a huge factor, but it does have to factor in some, because I think in an ideal world you are looking for the perfect fit...and Payne isn't perfect.
In my case, I would strongly consider Payne at #11, but I would take other guys I have previewed so far over him if they were available. I like (in alphabetical order) Booker, Johnson, Kaminsky, and Stein slightly more also just because a rim protector of his caliber is harder to find. If one of those 4 guys (or someone else unexpectedly slips that I like) is there I would take them over Payne. If they are all gone....then I'd be happy with the small dynamic point guard from Bartlett Tennessee. Payne I do think would be fun to have on the team and to watch play and grow.
It is easy to see them all being gone by the way....Stein to Sacramento at #6, Booker at #9, Johnson at #7 or #8 or #10, Kaminsky at #8 or #10......those are all possible to happen. If so, Payne will be a Pacer a week from now and will start the business of trying to figure out what pieces need to go with him.
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Those who love Payne clearly think he will be better than this, but I ask you all this: How is he significantly better than Jeremy Lin? I think they are similar players, if Payne never really improves from where he is right now. I'd rather have Payne because he is younger and I think he will clearly improve to past the point where Lin is, but right now I think they are pretty close.
I like Lin by the way, and if we don't draft a point guard like Payne, I'd strongly think about signing him as our backup next year in what appears to me to be a pretty weak class of free agents at that position.
But, because I do think Payne will improve some, I am giving him a comparable of another mid major (at the time) left handed guard who excelled as an offensive NBA guard for many years, and who was one of my favorite players back in the day....a guy who didn't really guard that well, but who was so good on offense he played a lot in anyway or average to above average teams:
NBA comparable: Nick Van Exel
As always, the above opinions are my own. I know there will be much disagreement, and I certainly am fine with that. I try to put my own coaching and Pacers fan eyes on these guys from how I think they'd fit with us and in the league as whole, but how much they improve after next Thursday will ultimately be much more important to the ultimate accuracy of this report more than anything I have written or said.
Also, I am adding an additional player to this list, so I will have 13 players broken down when this is all said and done this year.....I am going to do Bobby Portis next, and I have identified one potential player who may unexpectedly fall to #11 (I doubt it, but its possible) that I think is worth discussing.
This time until next time.....
Tbird
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