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PD's Favorite Topic: Myles Turner (and contract possibilities)

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  • PD's Favorite Topic: Myles Turner (and contract possibilities)

    Just came across a very well put together article from Keith Smith of spotrac about contract possibilities in any scenario involving Myles. With his recent (mostly) strong play to start the season, there is again renewed interest among some of our PD faithful to re-sign him amid hope anew that Haliburton's distribution prowess completely changes the trajectory of his Pacer career. Personally, I'm of mixed feelings on the topic and remain highly skeptical but must admit there may be something to the idea IF (and only if) he continues to play at a high level consistently and stays healthy between now and the trade deadline. That said, half of the board is either vomiting in their mouth or plain seething at the mere suggestion of it. Will post the article below and let you all make of it what you will:

    https://www.spotrac.com/research/nba...s-turner-1672/

    Next Contract Series: Myles Turner

    By: Keith Smith
    Published: November 16, 2022

    NBA trade season is right around the corner. The early trade window opens on December 15, which is when the vast majority of players who signed deals over the offseason become trade-eligible. And if we’re closing in on trade season, that must mean it’s time for a fresh batch of Myles Turner trade rumors!

    This is Year 8 for Turner, with all of them coming with the Indiana Pacers. For at least four or five of those years, he’s been one of the most-often mentioned players in trade rumors. The reasons for that are two-fold for Turner.

    Keeping it on the floor first, Turner is a somewhat unique player. He has the ability to stretch the floor on offense, while protecting the rim on defense. That makes Turner fairly plug-and-play in most systems that NBA teams run.

    Secondly, but of equal importance, Turner is on a very tradable contract. He’s in the final year of a four-year, $72 million rookie scale extension that he signed in 2018. Any NBA contract is tradable, but a deal for less than $20 million is generally very easy to match salary for.

    Combine the production and the contract, and Turner is consistently in trade rumors. Then, factor in that he’ll only turn 27 years old in March, plus the Pacers being in a rebuild, and the rumor mill is hitting overdrive.

    But…Turner is on an expiring contract. That means a new deal is coming soon. Traded or not, Myles Turner is only eight months (at most!) from getting a big new contract. What we’re going to do today is look at what that new contract might look like.
    THE VETERAN EXTENSION


    Myles Turner is eligible through the end of the league year to sign a veteran extension with the Indiana Pacers. Because he’s on an expiring deal, Turner’s ability to extend with Indiana runs all the way through June 30.

    Here’s what a maximum veteran extension would look like for Turner:
      • 2023-24: $21,600,000
      • 2024-25: $23,328,000
      • 2025-26: $25,056,000
      • 2026-27: $26,784,000
      • Total: four years, $96,768,000

    That’s a 120% raise off of Turner’s $18,000,000 salary for 2022-23, with 8% raises in the years after that.

    At first glance, that doesn’t look bad. It’s nearly $100 million for Turner into his early-30s. But it’s well short of Turner’s maximum salary that he could collect as a free agent. In addition, with the cap projected to go way up over the next few years, Turner would be better off betting on himself than taking even a slightly under-market extension.
    RE-SIGNING WITH THE PACERS AS A FREE AGENT


    Let’s say Myles Turner sticks in Indiana despite the rumors (he’s made it seven years already!) and the Pacers rebuild seems ahead of schedule. Maybe Turner will want to re-sign with Indiana.

    The Pacers can offer him a max deal that would look like this:
      • 2023-24: $40,200,000
      • 2024-25: $43,416,000
      • 2025-26: $46,632,000
      • 2026-27: $49,848,000
      • 2027-28: $53,064,000
      • Total: five years, $233,160,000

    That’s the full 30% max Turner is eligible for with eight years or service. This deal also includes the maximum 8% raises for Turner.

    An average annual value (AAV) of $46.6 million feels a bit steep for Turner. You’d have to believe he can become an All-NBA center to commit that much money to him at this point. But, we’ve now established the absolute top-end max we’re looking at for the Pacers big man.
    SIGNING WITH ANOTHER TEAM AS A FREE AGENT:


    Continuing with our scenarios, let’s say Turner isn’t traded (again, he’s made it seven years already!), but he and/or the Pacers are ready to move on this summer. Turner will be an unrestricted free agent and here’s the max he could get from another team:
      • 2023-24: $40,200,000
      • 2024-25: $42,210,000
      • 2025-26: $44,220,000
      • 2026-27: $46,230,000
      • Total: four years, $172,860,000

    That’s still 30% of the cap, but the raises are only 5%. And, because Turner would be changing teams, he’d be limited to only signing a four-year deal. Players can only get a five-year contract when re-signing with their current team.

    That’s an AAV of $43 million or so. If we compare to a four-year max from the Pacers, it’s a difference of about $2 million per season in terms of AAV. If a $43 million AAV still seems steep, remember that we’re setting max points here.

    We’ve now got three max data points locked in: The Veteran Extension, max with the Pacers and max with another team. But there are a couple of other scenarios we need to consider for Turner, as well.
    THE EXTEND-AND-TRADE


    You might have heard that Myles Turner is in trade rumors. (Just kidding! We know you know that.) But what if a team wanted Turner locked in for years beyond this season? The Pacers and the acquiring team, along with Turner, could agree on an extend-and-trade deal. It would look like this:
      • 2022-23: $18,000,000
      • 2023-24: $18,900,000
      • 2024-25: $19,845,000
      • Total: three years, $56,745,000

    We included the current year for Turner, since an extend-and-trade is extremely restrictive. In an extend-and-trade, the total length of the contract can only be three seasons. In this case, Turner can only add two new years onto his current deal. In addition, raises in an extend-and-trade are limited to 5%.

    As you can see, Turner would be adding (in relative terms) very little to his current salary in an extend-and-trade. Essentially, Turner would have to really, really want to be heading to the acquiring team to do a deal like this. A more likely scenario would be Turner is traded to a new team and simply signs a new contract as a free agent in July.
    EXTENDING AFTER A TRADE


    If Myles Turner was to be traded to another team, he could still extend with that team. Unfortunately, he’d have to wait six months to sign an extension which is larger than the extend-and-trade scenario laid out above. That makes timing really, really important to watch as to when Turner would theoretically be traded.

    And, in that extension, the acquiring team would still be capped at offering the Veteran Extension. That contract would look exactly the same as laid out above.
    THE RENEGOTIATE-AND-EXTEND


    It’s extremely rare for an NBA contract to be renegotiated. First, a player must be extension-eligible. That’s a fairly small list of players each season. Of that list, the player must be on a team that has cap space available in order to complete the renegotiation portion of the renegotiate-and-extend.

    Going back to 2015, only three players have completed a renegotiate-and-extend deal. Robert Covington did a four-year deal with the Philadelphia 76ers in 2017. And Danilo Gallinari (two years) and Wilson Chandler (four years) signed renegotiate-and-extend deals with the Denver Nuggets in 2015.

    Myles Turner fits both of these criteria at this moment. Turner is extension-eligible and the Indiana Pacers are sitting on up to $30 million in available cap space.

    Pegging what an renegotiate-and-extend could look like is a bit tricky. Because the team would use existing cap space, they aren’t really limited to just the 120% allowed in a Veteran Extension.

    That means it’s all about negotiation on that first-year salary, but that also has an impact on the subsequent years as well.

    In a renegotiation-and-extend deal, a player is eligible to take their contract all the way up to their maximum salary, assuming the team has enough available cap space to do so. In this case, Turner makes $18 million for this season, with a maximum salary of $37,096,500. That’s a difference of roughly $19.1 million, which the Pacers are certainly able to give Turner given their existing cap space.

    In full, if Turner did a renegotiate-and-extend deal for the max he’s allowed, it would look like this:
      • 2022-23: $37,096,500
      • 2023-24: $40,064,220
      • 2024-25: $43,031,940
      • 2025-26: $45,999,660
      • 2026-27: $48,967,380
      • Total: five years, $215,159,700

    This contract would take Turner’s salary from $18,000,000 to his max of $37,096,500 for this season. Then the additional years would have an 8% raise on them. Once again, the renegotiation to the max allowable for Turner is made possible by the Pacers still having up to $30 million in cap space available.

    It’s important to note that the above is the max Turner could get in a renegotiate-and-extend deal. The Pacers and Turner could agree on any number in terms of renegotiated 2022-23 salary up to his max, and they could also agree to deal that runs less than five total years, or less than 8% raises.

    In addition, Indiana and Turner could agree to get really funky with a new deal and lower the first season of the extension by up to 40% off of the renegotiated 2022-23 salary. That would bring Turner’s deal in the first year of the extension in 2023-24 down to around $22 million. Essentially, Turner would get a bonus in this current league year, using Indiana’s leftover cap space, and then tack on a few years at a more reasonable number moving forward.

    Note: Turner can only do a renegotiation-and-extension with Pacers.
    SUMMARY


    We’ve given five options for Myles Turner’s next deal. We can eliminate the Veteran Extension and the Extend-and-Trade as viable options, as they aren’t going to pay Turner enough for him to sign either of those deals. He’d simply be leaving too much money on the table.

    That leaves three realistic options: Turner re-signs with the Pacers, leaves Indiana in free agency or does a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal to stay in the only NBA home he’s ever known.

    Despite the fact that Turner is constantly in trade rumors, it’s important to note that he’s never actually been traded. There has to be something to that. Players rarely make it through years and years of rumors to end up staying with a team. When that happens, it’s generally because the player and the team have no desire to end their relationship.

    With that in mind, a Renegotiate-and-Extend may be Turner’s best option. It doesn’t rule out a trade long-term, but it would increase the odds of Turner sticking around in Indiana. The key is to keep Turner a viable trade asset on the next contract.

    If the Pacers have no other plans for their nearly $30 million in remaining cap space, why not use $19 million or so to bring Turner up to his max of $37.1 million for this season? Think of that as a bonus for his years of service to the Pacers and for signing what will likely be a balanced (read: team-friendly) extension in the subsequent years. And it’s those subsequent years that matter.

    Here’s a proposal for a deal that could work for both Turner and Indiana:
    • 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
    • 2023-24: $24,000,000
    • 2024-25: $25,920,000
    • 2025-26: $27,840,000
    • 2026-27: $29,760,000
    • Total: five years, $144.6 million

    This deal would see Turner get a bump up to his full max for this season using some of Indiana’s available cap space. Then, he would add on what is essentially a four-year, $107.5 million extension. That’s an AAV of almost $27 million per year. That’s kind of right in the sweet spot between the $25 and $30 million per year value that seems fair for turner on his next deal.

    If you prefer, add the $19 million or so extra from the renegotiation portion of the deal, and Turner would get roughly $126 million in new money. That would bring the AAV for the new years to about $31.5 million. Just over the target range, but without getting crazy.

    The other option for the Pacers, and perhaps a preferable one, would be to reverse the cap hits on the extension. That deal would look like this:
      • 2022-23: $37,096,500 (renegotiated up from $18,000,000)
      • 2023-24: $29,760,000
      • 2024-25: $27,840,000
      • 2025-26: $25,920,000
      • 2026-27: $24,000,000
      • Total: five years, $144.6 million

    The overall money remains the same, but Turner takes just less than an 8% decline in salary year over year. That way, when Turner is approaching his early-30s in the later years of the deal, the cap hits are reasonable for a player of that age and he remains tradable from Indiana’s point of view.

    Myles Turner and the Indiana Pacers are in an interesting spot. Trade rumors will continue to be floated, probably even after Turner signs a new deal. But because the rare circumstances exist to do a Renegotiate-and-Extend deal, it would behoove the Pacers and Turner to take advantage and at least extend their partnership for a little while longer.

  • #2
    Holy triple post, Batman. Can one of the mods please delete these duplicates? I got a notification that there was a database error, so I tried several times to post. Sorry for the spam!

    Comment


    • #3
      If Myles continues to play like this I’d love to have him back. I honestly don’t think he wants to be a Pacer anymore after hearing the “Lakers interview”. I just hope we don’t lose him for nothing
      "So, which one of you guys is going to come in second?" - Larry Bird before the 3 point contest. He won.


      Comment


      • #4
        I don't hate the idea of that 5yr - $144mil in descending order if he keeps this play up.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by festar35 View Post
          I don't hate the idea of that 5yr - $144mil in descending order if he keeps this play up.
          Agree, that "renegotiate and extend" option that declines in amount each year is the most intriguing to me (if we wanted to entertain the idea of bringing him back, in the first place) because it would be the least impactful to our salary situation when considering future extensions for Tyrese, Benn and co.

          Comment


          • #6
            lol...yall are funny....especially the ones talking about "if he continues to play like this"

            the dude has been in the league for 8 years...there are no real questions about what youre gonna get with Myles...even this year hes missed close to half the games...this when hes desperately trying to impress someone-anyone-into giving him a new and improved contract...and the Pacers are doing everything they can to desperately showcase him as well in the hopes of getting anything remotely valuable in return for him...an not have to pay him 18 million a year to show up half the time and play his weakass game when he does...18 million a year for 3 blocks a game...congrats...

            his agent obviously had alot to do with this article...talking about paying him in the neighborhood of Embiid...Jokic, Ayton etc makes me want to throw up....this guy should be paid in the neighborhood of Biyombo, or maybe Poeltl, Plumlee, or Zubac...but hes not even as good as Williams or Lopez who arent making nearly whats being discussed here...i mean seriously...anybody paying him more than 10 million a year probably needs their head examined because hes not even really worth that...
            Wemby 2023

            Sabonis 2024

            Comment


            • #7
              Turner's recent play just makes this the perfect time to trade him before he gets injured again.
              Larry Bird qouted March 25th. 2015:

              Bird: I wanted to keep our group together because in the summer, if David and Roy opt out, we're back to zero, really. We don't have that much, so you leave your options open. If we did make a trade, I didn't want to take on a lot of contracts -- because that's what usually happens. Plus, I liked my guys. They're playing well. If we keep the core together and Paul comes back healthy, we'll be right back to where we were.

              Comment


              • #8
                It sounds like the ball is in Myles' court, and ultimately whatever career path he chooses to follow. Whatever that might be, am sure his agent is anxiously waiting to pounce on the best deal he can get.

                Oh, and what happened to Lance being PD's favorite topic?

                Comment


                • #9
                  The things we might have missed about Myles that the numbers were starting to hint at (I'm not completely convinced yet):

                  1) He got better at rolling and scoring in traffic during the years that Pacers were having him do it way less.

                  2) His 3 point percentage was held down by being forced to shoot from the corners which he is terrible at.

                  What makes it hard to value him is that his passing is not good enough for him to be an offensive hub. If he was a good passer for a center, he would be ridiculously good. The fact that he can only be a finisher puts him in a strange middle zone as a player because he is showing that he is really, really good as a finisher.

                  I honestly don't know who his comparable is right now. There are centers who he shares some traits with, but he is scoring more than they score. There are some centers he shares some traits with but he passes less. There are some centers he shares some traits with but he is way more efficient then. And there are some centers who he shares some traits with who he is way better at defense then.

                  Now in 10 games could he be in a slump and this speculation looks silly? Of course! The fact that everything he is doing is reasonable based on the little hints help his case, but I still don't trust it. And I definitely don't trust the health. But if we are 30 games down the road and he's still rolling, I have no idea what his contract should look like.

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                  • #10
                    ^^^^^Need more time
                    {o,o}
                    |)__)
                    -"-"-

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                    • #11
                      it does give me hope that we could maybe do the myles/anunoby swapperino.


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                      • #12
                        Imagine giving a max to somebody as worthless as Myles Softner just because he can now make open layups like Ian Mahinmi
                        @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

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                        • #13
                          Imagine reading this thread and thinking that anybody is suggesting giving Myles a max

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by vnzla81 View Post
                            Imagine giving a max to somebody as worthless as Myles Softner just because he can now make open layups like Ian Mahinmi
                            Yeah, dude, I can't imagine anyone wants to give Myles the max or anything close to it.

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                            • #15
                              Good article but those numbers are way too high. If he'd sign for about half that, maybe, but I assume he's already turned something like that down.


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