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Tbird analysis, 2022 NBA draft profile #5: A.J. Griffin

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  • #1

    Tbird analysis, 2022 NBA draft profile #5: A.J. Griffin



    15 days before draft night 2022 we head to Tobacco Road to take a deep dive on Duke sharpshooter A.J. Griffin. In previous profiles this year, we’ve taken in depth looks at Keegan Murray, Johnny Davis, Dyson Daniels, and Bennedict Mathurin, making Griffin the 5th player broken down in depth this year, with a few more yet to come. You can find those profiles, and ones from previous years that I have done, elsewhere on PacersDigest.


    Griffin comes with a top athletic pedigree. His father, Adrian, was a long time NBA player for a variety of teams, and now is an assistant with Nick Nurse in Toronto, where he got a championship ring a few years ago as part of their championship winning staff. His mother Audrey was a track star at Seton Hall, his older brother Alan played high major D1 basketball at both Illinois and Chicago, and his sister currently plays for women’s basketball powerhouse University of Connecticut.


    Griffin has been highly thought of for a long time as a youth player, with his family making sure he had the opportunities to play for elite travel teams and gaining well deserved exposure, as Griffin had major success in basketball at a young age. Unfortunately, he has been riddled with injuries throughout his teenage years, missing significant developmental time. Griffin missed the last half of his sophomore year in high school with a foot injury, the last 4 months of his junior high school season with what was reportedly diagnosed as a knee sprain, and missed his entire senior year with an ankle injury, along with all of the struggles with COVID all programs had. Injured early at Duke in their pre-season as well, Griffin was brought along slowly by their staff and didn’t actually start until game 15 for the Blue Devils.


    When healthy and given the opportunity, Griffin was able to step in and fill a role for the ultra talented Duke squad, who likely will have 3-4 players drafted in the top 30 on draft night. Primarily used as a floor spacer with a low usage rate, Griffin delivered 10.4ppg, 3.9 rpg, and 1.0 apg in the box score stat categories. His shooting numbers are what will get him drafted as all of you who are reading probably know, as Griffin shot a sizzling 44.7% from 3pt range, and an even better 45.7% from beyond the arc when not taking a dribble. 41% from deep even on closely guarded shots, Griffin was an elite sniper in college. It is that one incredibly valuable skill that gets your attention when watching him, but what else is there to his game? At 6’6, 222lbs with an NBA developed body and 7 foot wingspan, Griffin has NBA natural tools and length. You have to love his age as well, since Griffin is a relative baby in this draft: Born August 25th, 2003, Griffin will not turn 19 until this summer. Oozing with potential, but with significant red flags as well, Griffin was a somewhat difficult scout for me. Let’s take a deep dive on the pros and cons of A.J. Griffin down below, and see exactly what I think he becomes.


    —---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    No question, the shooting numbers were awesome in college. But let’s discuss the finer details of them, because to me Griffin is one of the most interesting players I’ve studied in a while.


    Form wise, Griffin from the waist up is pretty flawless, with the possible exception of a slightly lower release than is perfect. But I’m far from worried about the slightly low release, because he is quick on the trigger, has really good balance and form, great hand and elbow position, and clearly has been well taught from a young age. From Day 1, if he were to end up in Indiana, he becomes our best 3 point shooter and I don’t think it is really close. Keep in mind that we were a below average shooting team last season, so being the best on our team might not be as impressive as it first sounds. Still, no worries about his form from the waist up.


    Having said all that, I now say this: Griffin has one of the widest bases of any shooter I’ve studied in quite a while. That is good for balance and power on the jumper itself, but I bet some teams try to tweak that about his shot. That approach causes him some major weaknesses in other aspects of his offensive game, and I do think, though it is risky to a degree to mess with a shot that gets that good of a result, that I would advocate that, just to see if I could improve other weaknesses he has.


    Let me explain: when you have such a wide base as he has on a catch, it makes it very difficult from a body movement perspective to take a large/quick first step. By definition, you almost have to take a small step first, before you can make a bigger 2nd step. This slows his drives down big time, and is the reason behind the fact that he lacks explosiveness off the dribble. It is also why currently any comparison to him and a player with a large and quick first step like Jimmy Butler is laughable to me, no matter how much they may physically resemble each other.


    That wide base is a really fatal flaw I think in eventually being able to drive the basketball at the NBA level in an effective way, which is a problem for Griffin, because with his great shotmaking teams are going to have to crowd him and make him put it on the wood. If he can’t drive a bad or average closeout, he basically becomes a one dimensional catch and shoot guy offensively. With his current bad first step, his drives will get rounded off, and he will be forced into tough mid range jumpers or turnovers, and he will never be a guy who can draw help defenders to him. Those guys will always stick around, but it would be a shame if that is all he becomes. I think at his age, a team has to take the risk, change his shot some, and see if they can add some more explosiveness to his game…the risk will be worth the reward I think. That’ll take time, a lot of sweat equity, and buy-in from Griffin himself to accomplish.


    —----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Don’t sell him short though, even if he can’t become a good driver at all, that jump shot still remains a major weapon. And it is still a weapon because he is very smart and adept at finding ways to get open off of other players. Griffin is what I would call a “satellite”. He floats around, outside the orbit of others, with one specific skill. Griffin is excellent at both the concepts of a “drift” or “lift”, and he is great at making himself available to drivers who get a paint touch. I don’t think he has the right body type to be a guy who comes off screen actions too often as a movement shooter, but as a guy in a spread out NBA floor where others can draw attention away from him, he can make people pay for their errors. Griffin is great at catching the ball and getting his shot off even when crowded while not losing accuracy. If he is forced to dribble a bit, he has some limited shake that is nuanced and smart, and has an excellent step back jumper going to his left. Definitely a “permanent pivot” guy, he will basically always have his left foot as his anchor foot, meaning his first step is always with his right foot, meaning a straight ahead right hand drive or the use of a right to left crossover step to take off. Both are slow, but if you do make a mistake or are lazy, he can pull up quickly with good form and make tough shots over you. If Griffin does drive a little deeper toward the rim, he has a pretty predictable but semi effective drive left, spin back to his right fadeaway he can pull out.


    Griffin is super strong physically, so he has some utility potentially against smaller defenders, if he finds himself for some reason near the rim (this won’t happen often). But he might get a bucket a game that way someday if a team wants to employ him that way. And I also believe a team who really pushes the pace will benefit Griffin, as he is very good at finding the corners or the open slot areas in transition, when the defense is scrambling and not set.


    There was a time, looking at high school tape, that he was a good lane filler and could really get up for some highlight dunks in transition, but that really didn’t show up much at Duke last year, at least on all the games I studied. Very much a 2 foot jumper, Griffin didn’t show much vertical explosion last year. But without that explosion at this point, and with that wide stance limiting his drive game, Griffin offensively remains a player with one singular high level skill: the skill of being a basketball sniper from distance. That is a highly sought after skill, but I don’t see a ton of other attributes (passing, creating, screening, etc) beyond that one offensive skill.


    —------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Normally, I watch games live during the season and take notes. Then after the season, I take those notes and rewatch as many games as I can, and try and form my own opinions on guys without reading or caring too much about what other “experts” may say. In Griffin’s case though, after I re-wrote all my notes in preparation to write this, I did check around a bit to see other analysts' opinions of his defense. Outside of a few, it looks like I am on an island when I say this about his defense:


    It’s awful.


    I know he is young, I know he is raw, and he has missed a lot of development time. I know he likely isn’t totally healthy. I know he has a plus 6 wingspan. So, I see intellectually why some teams, fans, and analysts probably can talk themselves into thinking that Griffin can be at least an average defender someday. Others even think he will be above average. But I just don’t see it that way at all. Griffin was an absolute sieve from what I saw on tape.


    His weaknesses are multiple. First, he can’t move laterally at all currently, particularly to his left. Teams pretty consistently were able to just blow by him with straight drives right outside his left hip. I think his defensive stance itself is bad, and that he needs to open up his outside foot angle so he can clear his hips and be able to slide faster and further. But, if Coach K, USA basketball, and an NBA ex player and current coach as a father haven’t noticed or fixed that, I am not sure an ex high school coach and radio/internet guy is going to. I know this though: Griffin is slow laterally.


    Next, his hand placement is poor. He gets off balance, and gets grabby even against guys who drive him who aren’t all that threatening. Fouling is going to be a problem for Griffin unless he learns to lift his arms and get his hands above those elbows so he can show his hands to the stripes.


    Further, any screen kills Griffin. He literally dies on everyone. Maybe it is a product of all that experience playing he lost, but almost every screen someone sets on him seems to shock him, and leads to a pileup wherever he is. When Griffin is drafted, he owes Mark Williams a big part of his signing bonus, because the Duke Center had to cover a lot of his mistakes. Ballscreens, and especially screens off the ball, devastated Griffin. Staggers, double drags, Spain actions, backscreens, handoffs, they all flummoxed him.I personally think this flaw isn’t very fixable, as his wide frame and body type is going to make it difficult for him to navigate complex screen actions. On the positive side, teams now run fewer actual off ball screens in the NBA than ever before, so that at least gives Griffin some hope in this regard.


    Lastly, Griffin ball watches so much that he is a backdoor waiting to happen. Time and time again teams scouted and targeted Griffin for backdoor cuts really all season long. Again, whether due to lack of court time, bad instincts, limited athleticism, or whatever, Griffin gave up a ton of dunks when smart teams would run misdirection at him.


    His defense got so bad at the end of the season, that the Duke staff made the adjustment to just have him face guard his man, and have no help responsibilities at all. In other words, he was struggling so much with basic team defense that they basically just simplified the game for him and told him to just stay with one player (hint: this was not the opponents best guy), and while this helped him stay on the floor enough to let his offensive skill become useful, the Blue Devils still limited his minutes and often took him off the floor in big defensive situations.


    Now, to be fair, there are at least some positives to talk about, at least in theory. First, he is super strong….you can’t post him up, as Griffin is built like a fire plug. Next, the lack of developmental time and being young for his grade is a real mitigating factor. There exists a world out there that a scout could, if they were so inclined, to write off all of these defensive mistakes and flaws and think with better health and more experience they were fixable. His length, the possibility of improved athleticism when/if he gets fully healthy and in premium shape, at least allows you to dream a little.


    From my clear eyed, non emotional viewpoint though, I don’t share that defensive optimism at all. I believe he is at least 2 years away from being passable enough to even see the floor in any significant way, and I don’t think his offensive juice is worth the defensive squeeze. I can squint and see why others feel differently on Griffin, and I acknowledge the chance I am totally wrong on him. But I don’t think his defense plays, and almost no coach will play a player they can’t at least somewhat trust on defense.


    —------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    So in total, what do we have in A.J. Griffin?


    I think we have a one dimensional sniper, with some potential to be an overall plus NBA scorer, but who has major question marks health wise and who is, at least for now, projected by me to be a pretty porous defender. Guys who shoot this well tend to stay in the league a while, and if he ends up on the absolute right team his gravity as a shooter would be very helpful to a team in a bench role. Ultimately, that is what I see in him, a bench shooter who probably has to find the exact right situation to survive.


    Griffin would be a great fit offensively in certain cities. Milwaukee would be a great place for him. Philadelphia. Dallas. Both L.A. teams. In other words, teams with superstars who draw attention away from him, and with defensive identities and bigs who can hide his flaws to a degree. As I see it, fit will be incredibly important for Griffin to succeed.


    That fit is not in Indiana as I see it. For me, Griffin is a hard pass and I would surmise that the Pacers likely agree.


    In my view, I think Griffin will slide on draft night some, and get past one of his better fits, which is New Orleans at #8. I don’t buy the rumors that the Knicks like him at #11, despite the fact that he is a New York native. Oklahoma City makes some sense to me as a destination at #12, but ultimately I think he falls to his best overall fit in the lottery, which is Cleveland at #14. With Evan Mobley and the rest of the Cleveland bigs covering for his defense, and Griffin being able to space the floor for the shooting challenged Cavs, Cleveland to me makes the most sense to draft A.J. Griffin.


    —---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Current NBA comparable: A poor man’s Saddiq Bey, a rich man’s Davis Bertans.


    If he hits his absolute ceiling, the old wing from Orlando, Dennis Scott, sort of reminds me of Griffin to some degree as well. Scott had a long career playing with Shaq and Penny Hardaway in his prime, and I think it is that kind of atmosphere Griffin will need to function well at the next level.


    The potential is there, if you wanted to take a swing, that he could far exceed my prognostication with better health, more experience, and some tweaks to his game. I fully acknowledge that, and I think there is more variance in his potential outcomes than any other player I’ve done this season so far. But for me, the poor defense and health risks are mountains too high to climb for me to endorse him for our Pacers.


    As always, the above is just my opinion.


    Tbird
    Tags: None
    • 11 likes
  • #2
    Really a guy I don’t want at 6. Injuries and invisible in all the games I saw at Duke. Wouldn’t be shocked if he drops out of the lottery to the late teens, early 20s.
    • 2 likes

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    • #3
      Some guy on 8pointsninesconds had a piece advocating us picking him. I was surprised. Seemed rather nondescript to me. Haven't seen many glowing expert reviews either.

      Note: 8pointsnineseconds not Indy Cornrows.
      Last edited by D-BONE; 06-09-2022, 04:30 PM.
      I'd rather die standing up than live on my knees.

      -Emiliano Zapata

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      • #4
        This is your guy at #4 Ranadive. Don't miss out on greatness!
        • 4 likes

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        • #5
          Griffin from the waist up is pretty flawless,

          ...this is what derailed my own dreams of starring in adult films...
          • 11 likes

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          • #6
            One of my least favorite possibilities from the very beginning.
            "Just look at the flowers ........ BANG" - Carol "The Walking Dead"
            • 1 like

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            • #7
              Cavs at #14 would track with where I have him on my board. It'd be a nice fit. We need the Cavs to load up this summer to assure we get that pick.


              Comment

              • #8
                Originally posted by Hoop View Post
                One of my least favorite possibilities from the very beginning.
                Yeah most of this board has had a similar opinion of him from the get-go.
                • 1 like

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                • #9
                  I actually don't think he is bad at all, and outside the injury issues, he'd be a perfect fit for this team.

                  He hits catch and shoot 3's, he can make really good passes and he can find guys all over the court while on the ground or in the air, which would work wonderfully next to Halliburton.

                  His D isn't bad, outside of screens, he just plays it differently. His wide stance and long wing span allow him to be a little late to plays and still be able intercept tight passes ,as well as being ,explosive and performing chase down blocks..

                  He does have an issue contesting shooters he is guarding; the wide stance works in some situations, but causes him to be overly late on on closeouts.

                  He is also young and I imagine he will learn a lot, with the right coach, about how to improve and become more diverse on defense.
                  Why so SERIOUS

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                  • #10
                    ^^^ Mostly agree. I like the guy. But I have a jones for shooters. There are better choices in the draft, but Pacers need shooting, premium shooting desperately.

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                    • #11
                      Originally posted by xIndyFan View Post
                      ^^^ Mostly agree. I like the guy. But I have a jones for shooters. There are better choices in the draft, but Pacers need shooting, premium shooting desperately.
                      Very true. And equally important the shooters have to be able to play defense and the Pacers lack that as much as shooters
                      {o,o}
                      |)__)
                      -"-"-
                      • 1 like

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                      • #12
                        I am curious if TBird will do an Eason write up
                        {o,o}
                        |)__)
                        -"-"-

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by owl View Post
                          I am curious if TBird will do an Eason write up
                          There's a ton to pick apart with Eason. But with him, I think many of those flaws should be ignored based on the potential and very obvious year to year offensive improvements.

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                          • #14
                            Hard pass. It scares me though that, in some ways, he has Pacers written all over him.
                            • 1 like

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by Really? View Post

                              he can make really good passes and he can find guys all over the court while on the ground or in the air, which would work wonderfully next to Halliburton.
                              Where did you see this? In the games and videos I watched, I saw a guy who had extreme tunnel vision. I had no problem with that when he shot the ball from the perimeter, but when he decided to put it on the floor and drive he would often be blind to his teammates being in better position or completely open. He would often take a well contested (occasionally by multiple defenders) shot in the paint.

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