As we hit the 20 game mark the Pacers currently set at 13th spot in the east with a 8-12 record. Every team in the top 10 in the East right now has a winning record with the 10th seed Celtics sitting at 10-9. The West is not as good this year as only the top 6 teams have winning records and 7-10 all sit at .500
The Raptors and the Cavs both are above the Pacers but each also has a losing record, both at 9-10. As it stand the Pacers are currently 3.5 games behind the Bucks for the final non play in spot. As the season goes on I would expect that the Bucks will not be down in the 6th spot but someone else will occupy that position.
Now the question is, will the team that occupies that position or any position above that be the Indiana Pacers?
My very simple answer to that is no.
I'll try and do a breakdown of players further down but I'll just cut to the chase and say that I see nothing in the first 20 games that makes me change my mind that we will once again, as we have for the past several seasons, be a low level team that might make the play in or maybe even get to the actual playoffs (I'm not sure either way on this part) but if we do we will be absolute fodder for whoever the upper tier teams are.
At the Digest gathering earlier this summer I think some of the people confused what I was saying and maybe even some have confused what I say now. But let me try and clarify this as best as I can.
I do NOT believe we are a bad team. However I do not believe we are a good team. At best we are mediocre team and our talent level is really not that great.
Nothing has changed my mind on that. We have won some big games against some really good teams. We've lost some winnable games against really lousy teams.
This is really nothing more than the mark of mediocrity.
Look we have admittedly had a rough schedule to begin the season with, which we all knew we had coming. So honestly I think as the season plays out we will be closer to .500 and possibly even a few games above (not likely but not impossible either) as the season ends.
BillS is absolutely correct when he says that as the season ends we have a stretch where we would almost have to mail in a forfeit to lose several games and yes, if we are suffering from a devastatingly bad record at the time we will jump up in the record and yes there will be several people howling because they had fully bought into the tank and this will take us out of the top 5 they are hoping for. Yes, this also means that there is a very good chance we will land once again right outside of the playoffs and right outside of the lottery. Purgatory, where Pacers fans live.
Now if you have read all of this I assume you are filled with my doom and despair and think that this is just another in a long line of lost seasons. Well, this year that is not exactly 100% true. I'm not thrilled with where I think we are headed and I do not like the direction or construction of the roster.
However what is different this year, IMO anyway, is two fold.
1. We actually have rookies (yes I said that in plural) who I think actually will contribute going forward.
2. I honestly believe that Rick Carlisle has the juice with Herb Simon that if he walks in and tells him that this team is capped out at where it is at and that he can not win with them that we can actually make changes going forward to improve the team.
Which for the record I believe that Rick is evaluating the team, more so that trying to get them to win every single game. I think that both he and Pritchard know that this is not now nor will this current iteration of the team ever be contenders. I believe they are trying to figure out what they have and how best to proceed going forward.
At least that is what I desperately hope anyway.
With that in mind let's look at the team and this time we are going to start in reverse and deal with the coach up front.
As I said above, I believe he is experimenting, mixing and matching, building towards the post season and maybe even seeing what he has to get there with. It's either that or he is totally burnt out and is just cashing checks till he can retire altogether. Because he has had massive changes to the structure on offense going from little to no play calling, to him calling multiple plays from the sidelines to now him back to not calling plays. Our defensive philosophy seems to change by the week as well. Sometimes we pressure the ball, sometimes we don't. Sometimes we fight through picks other times we go under them.
The one thing that you can say about his coaching after he left our club was that there really is no style of play that defines him. In a way he can adapt to almost any style or caliber of player that he has available to him and honestly that is a good thing. Much better than system coach's who can not adapt to the players they have. However the downside of that is that often times his teams have no real identity and I think it's safe to say that if there is a real complaint about our team (besides the lack of top grade talent) is that we totally lack any real identity. Are we and offensive power house who teams fear because of the massive runs we will go on? Clearly our typical 4-5 minute droughts that occur in almost every single second half of a game say's no. Are we a slap the floor defensive team that will get up in the other teams grill and make their lives miserable? I would also say no. Are we a physical team who dominates the opponent with our strength and power? Well we are rebounding significantly better this year but once again I don't think there is a team in the league who fears our physical play.
Another nice thing about Rick this season is that since he is experimenting he has allowed players to play themselves into and out of the lineup, but almost everyone has had a chance to get on the floor.
Overall I have been very pleased with what he has done because like him, I'm not really looking at this season. I want post season success and better futures going forward. But I know that some have not been happy with him and I'll just say this, if he's not doing what I hope he's doing, you would be right to not be happy.
Jumping to the players now.
Chris Duarte: The single biggest reason why I have any hope going forward. I don't believe he is ever going to be a superstar or a franchise cornerstone but I do believe he is probably going to be an all-star someday and he will average 18-22 ppg for the majority of his career.
First and foremost, he is not afraid. He's not afraid of the moment and he doesn't fear other players. This frankly is an invaluable tool that can't be taught and will only get better with time. More than once this season the final shot of the game has been designed to go to him. Which for the Pacers anyway is unheard of for a rookie. At present he is shooting 42% from the floor and 39% from threes, both are good numbers for a rookie. however he is only shooting 68% from the free throw line. To be a great player he is going to have to increase his numbers from the free throw line in both quantity and % of makes. In 18 games he's only shot 21, which isn't great.
He is a deceptively good passer, often making pocket passes and interior passes to Domas with high degree's of both difficulty and success.
All of this and we still haven't talked about one of his better attributes. His defense. He already defends the wing position better than anyone on our team other than Justin Holiday and he's only going to get better. I could go on and on about Duarte because he is that good. He is absolutely one of the building blocks going forward.
Malcolm Brogdon: Offensively he is typically our best scorer. Defensively he is sometimes the other teams best scorer. Try as he might, and I'm not really sure how hard he tries, he just can not stay in front of any guard who has any type of quickness. Now he is good at defending bigger wings, as well saw during the Lakers game he did not embarrass himself when he had to guard LeBron. He's not the best distributor of the ball but he has been making more of an effort to be a willing passer. He has really been a good reason why our overall team rebounding has improved as right now he is averaging a career best 6 rbg and of course he has already missed 5 games this season with a variety of illnesses and injuries. The season is still young so you can count on that at least doubling going forwards. It really doesn't matter what you think of him, love him hate him or anything in between, because due to his contract extension he isn't going anywhere this season.
Domantas Sabonis: His numbers are down mostly across the board, his assist numbers are dramatically down. Not having a bad season per se but not having a great one either. Not sure the offense we run really allows him to shine like it did under the previous Nate's. Not having his pick and roll buddy McDermott doesn't help him either. Teams are leaving him alone when he is shooting three's from the top of the line around to the angles and for whatever reason he doesn't seem to be able to get to the corner three all that often. He's done an admirable job of attempting to play perimeter defense, logging some of the highest mileage in the NBA. However he is not and never will be a rim protector. He can block shots but he scares nobody away. That being said he is an absolute beast down on the blocks himself and it takes either a concerted team effort (like the Raptors did) or have a very long shot blocker like Gobert to stop him. Really would like to see him give up the ball more running the floor as I would prefer he get himself on the block but he is capable of doing it so I guess he's going to.
Myles Turner: Scoring is exactly what it has been his entire career, which honestly surprised me a little as I thought he was scoring more a game than what he is. Rebounding is a career high 7.5 a game, which rounding up to 8 is pretty much acceptable. I mean he has shown he certainly can rebound when he focuses on it but with him it is always a matter of focus. Look I try and stay out of the debates between them anymore because as long as he isn't starting over Domas I'm ok. But while I believe he is having more good games than bad I just won't buy into the "he's turned the corner on his career" until I get months and I mean months worth of solid play. Which, he has not done. He has good games and bad. He always protect the rim and is probably the best shot blocker we have ever had on the team. As long as he can give us 8 rebounds a game to go with it, we're good.
Caris LeVert: Basically has been absolutely miserable on the floor. The injury he suffered either the pre-season or off season, I'm not sure which, is devastating because to me that is going to be a career altering injury where he is going to have chronic back pain and will need to set out games often. I believe it is affecting his shooting right now and while he has never been confused with a good defensive player, he hasn't been this bad in the past. He does a lot of what I consider unnecessary herky-jerky motions that will just contribute to his back pains going forward. That being said he's a decent and willing passer. Unless there is dramatic improvement here if we are looking to make a move I would suggest that we start here.
Justin Holiday: Man did he have a miserable stretch to begin the season from the floor. But of late has been hitting at a far higher clip. He is not being forced to play the four as often this year so that has helped defensively and over the past week or so it seems like he is trying to get to the basket a little more which I think helps his overall game because teams can't just guard him for the three point shot when he drives. Still probably asked to do to much here. Ideally he is at best a 6th man (maybe even 7th or 8th) but because of injury and lack of depth he is often called on to start. You could do a lot worse than him, but that seems to be the Pacers motto about all of our players.
Torrey Craig: Probably playing more minutes than expected and well frankly with the injury to Jackson and Brissett being a huge flop he is your next best versatile big, well sort of big he's only 6'7" so you would ideally like to play him against bigger wings however he has shown a knack in guarding 4's as well. Offensively I wasn't sure what to expect out of him and I still have no idea what to expect. There are games where he looks like he could be a solid contributor and then there are nights he doesn't shoot the ball more than 2-3 times. Solid pickup for the team and good deep bench guy to have.
Kelan Martin: The single biggest surprise of the season. I mean Duarte was a high first round pick so while we are pleased it can't come as a total shock he was good. This guy on the other hand has transformed himself into a defender who will earn time on the floor because of the way he goes at it night after night. What is so funny about him is that in the first half of last season I didn't even see him as an NBA level player. Second half of the season he started to develop some form of offensive rhythm but this year he has been a virtual pit bull on defense. Still think he is a deep bench level player but nothing would please me more than having to admit I was wrong because he has worked his way up. I love his size as well. This guy is listed at 6'5" but I don't believe it, I think he's about 6'7" but he is built like a tank. Rick paid him the compliment of calling him a fighter and well that was more than enough to perk my interest in him. I look forward to his growth.
T.J. McConnell: Career high 9ppg, which after the rough start to the season he had i was wondering if he would ever get an offensive groove going. He's a good distributor but until he can routinely shoot something outside of 8-10' teams are just going to back off of him and dare him to shoot cutting off any driving lanes and playing hell in the passing lanes. However he is almost 30, don't think he will change much if at all. Good backup point guard. I know there are people who want him to start but the reality is he's just not good enough to do it and frankly if we do have any form of playoff run he likely will be neutralized as teams will just pack the middle on him and cause him to be very ineffective.
I'm not going to bother with the others, Goga has good games here and there but obviously he is not a priority for Carlisle. Brissett was given chances and other than one game early on has sucked sucked sucked. Jackson being injured early on blew as he went from what I had hoped would be at least routine appearances to now typical rookie blowout games.
In closing I'll say this. We are not a healthy T.J. Warren away from being a contender. Does he make us better? Probably, although let's be blunt its going to take him months, if not longer, to get into game shape. But at the end of the day contrary to what Pritchard said last year, this guy is not the second coming of Kevin Durrant. He's just a good player who will play with other good players to form a good team who will win just enough to not be bad. Sadly they are playing in a league where great players play on great teams and have actual hope of competing for playoff advancement.
The Raptors and the Cavs both are above the Pacers but each also has a losing record, both at 9-10. As it stand the Pacers are currently 3.5 games behind the Bucks for the final non play in spot. As the season goes on I would expect that the Bucks will not be down in the 6th spot but someone else will occupy that position.
Now the question is, will the team that occupies that position or any position above that be the Indiana Pacers?
My very simple answer to that is no.
I'll try and do a breakdown of players further down but I'll just cut to the chase and say that I see nothing in the first 20 games that makes me change my mind that we will once again, as we have for the past several seasons, be a low level team that might make the play in or maybe even get to the actual playoffs (I'm not sure either way on this part) but if we do we will be absolute fodder for whoever the upper tier teams are.
At the Digest gathering earlier this summer I think some of the people confused what I was saying and maybe even some have confused what I say now. But let me try and clarify this as best as I can.
I do NOT believe we are a bad team. However I do not believe we are a good team. At best we are mediocre team and our talent level is really not that great.
Nothing has changed my mind on that. We have won some big games against some really good teams. We've lost some winnable games against really lousy teams.
This is really nothing more than the mark of mediocrity.
Look we have admittedly had a rough schedule to begin the season with, which we all knew we had coming. So honestly I think as the season plays out we will be closer to .500 and possibly even a few games above (not likely but not impossible either) as the season ends.
BillS is absolutely correct when he says that as the season ends we have a stretch where we would almost have to mail in a forfeit to lose several games and yes, if we are suffering from a devastatingly bad record at the time we will jump up in the record and yes there will be several people howling because they had fully bought into the tank and this will take us out of the top 5 they are hoping for. Yes, this also means that there is a very good chance we will land once again right outside of the playoffs and right outside of the lottery. Purgatory, where Pacers fans live.
Now if you have read all of this I assume you are filled with my doom and despair and think that this is just another in a long line of lost seasons. Well, this year that is not exactly 100% true. I'm not thrilled with where I think we are headed and I do not like the direction or construction of the roster.
However what is different this year, IMO anyway, is two fold.
1. We actually have rookies (yes I said that in plural) who I think actually will contribute going forward.
2. I honestly believe that Rick Carlisle has the juice with Herb Simon that if he walks in and tells him that this team is capped out at where it is at and that he can not win with them that we can actually make changes going forward to improve the team.
Which for the record I believe that Rick is evaluating the team, more so that trying to get them to win every single game. I think that both he and Pritchard know that this is not now nor will this current iteration of the team ever be contenders. I believe they are trying to figure out what they have and how best to proceed going forward.
At least that is what I desperately hope anyway.
With that in mind let's look at the team and this time we are going to start in reverse and deal with the coach up front.
As I said above, I believe he is experimenting, mixing and matching, building towards the post season and maybe even seeing what he has to get there with. It's either that or he is totally burnt out and is just cashing checks till he can retire altogether. Because he has had massive changes to the structure on offense going from little to no play calling, to him calling multiple plays from the sidelines to now him back to not calling plays. Our defensive philosophy seems to change by the week as well. Sometimes we pressure the ball, sometimes we don't. Sometimes we fight through picks other times we go under them.
The one thing that you can say about his coaching after he left our club was that there really is no style of play that defines him. In a way he can adapt to almost any style or caliber of player that he has available to him and honestly that is a good thing. Much better than system coach's who can not adapt to the players they have. However the downside of that is that often times his teams have no real identity and I think it's safe to say that if there is a real complaint about our team (besides the lack of top grade talent) is that we totally lack any real identity. Are we and offensive power house who teams fear because of the massive runs we will go on? Clearly our typical 4-5 minute droughts that occur in almost every single second half of a game say's no. Are we a slap the floor defensive team that will get up in the other teams grill and make their lives miserable? I would also say no. Are we a physical team who dominates the opponent with our strength and power? Well we are rebounding significantly better this year but once again I don't think there is a team in the league who fears our physical play.
Another nice thing about Rick this season is that since he is experimenting he has allowed players to play themselves into and out of the lineup, but almost everyone has had a chance to get on the floor.
Overall I have been very pleased with what he has done because like him, I'm not really looking at this season. I want post season success and better futures going forward. But I know that some have not been happy with him and I'll just say this, if he's not doing what I hope he's doing, you would be right to not be happy.
Jumping to the players now.
Chris Duarte: The single biggest reason why I have any hope going forward. I don't believe he is ever going to be a superstar or a franchise cornerstone but I do believe he is probably going to be an all-star someday and he will average 18-22 ppg for the majority of his career.
First and foremost, he is not afraid. He's not afraid of the moment and he doesn't fear other players. This frankly is an invaluable tool that can't be taught and will only get better with time. More than once this season the final shot of the game has been designed to go to him. Which for the Pacers anyway is unheard of for a rookie. At present he is shooting 42% from the floor and 39% from threes, both are good numbers for a rookie. however he is only shooting 68% from the free throw line. To be a great player he is going to have to increase his numbers from the free throw line in both quantity and % of makes. In 18 games he's only shot 21, which isn't great.
He is a deceptively good passer, often making pocket passes and interior passes to Domas with high degree's of both difficulty and success.
All of this and we still haven't talked about one of his better attributes. His defense. He already defends the wing position better than anyone on our team other than Justin Holiday and he's only going to get better. I could go on and on about Duarte because he is that good. He is absolutely one of the building blocks going forward.
Malcolm Brogdon: Offensively he is typically our best scorer. Defensively he is sometimes the other teams best scorer. Try as he might, and I'm not really sure how hard he tries, he just can not stay in front of any guard who has any type of quickness. Now he is good at defending bigger wings, as well saw during the Lakers game he did not embarrass himself when he had to guard LeBron. He's not the best distributor of the ball but he has been making more of an effort to be a willing passer. He has really been a good reason why our overall team rebounding has improved as right now he is averaging a career best 6 rbg and of course he has already missed 5 games this season with a variety of illnesses and injuries. The season is still young so you can count on that at least doubling going forwards. It really doesn't matter what you think of him, love him hate him or anything in between, because due to his contract extension he isn't going anywhere this season.
Domantas Sabonis: His numbers are down mostly across the board, his assist numbers are dramatically down. Not having a bad season per se but not having a great one either. Not sure the offense we run really allows him to shine like it did under the previous Nate's. Not having his pick and roll buddy McDermott doesn't help him either. Teams are leaving him alone when he is shooting three's from the top of the line around to the angles and for whatever reason he doesn't seem to be able to get to the corner three all that often. He's done an admirable job of attempting to play perimeter defense, logging some of the highest mileage in the NBA. However he is not and never will be a rim protector. He can block shots but he scares nobody away. That being said he is an absolute beast down on the blocks himself and it takes either a concerted team effort (like the Raptors did) or have a very long shot blocker like Gobert to stop him. Really would like to see him give up the ball more running the floor as I would prefer he get himself on the block but he is capable of doing it so I guess he's going to.
Myles Turner: Scoring is exactly what it has been his entire career, which honestly surprised me a little as I thought he was scoring more a game than what he is. Rebounding is a career high 7.5 a game, which rounding up to 8 is pretty much acceptable. I mean he has shown he certainly can rebound when he focuses on it but with him it is always a matter of focus. Look I try and stay out of the debates between them anymore because as long as he isn't starting over Domas I'm ok. But while I believe he is having more good games than bad I just won't buy into the "he's turned the corner on his career" until I get months and I mean months worth of solid play. Which, he has not done. He has good games and bad. He always protect the rim and is probably the best shot blocker we have ever had on the team. As long as he can give us 8 rebounds a game to go with it, we're good.
Caris LeVert: Basically has been absolutely miserable on the floor. The injury he suffered either the pre-season or off season, I'm not sure which, is devastating because to me that is going to be a career altering injury where he is going to have chronic back pain and will need to set out games often. I believe it is affecting his shooting right now and while he has never been confused with a good defensive player, he hasn't been this bad in the past. He does a lot of what I consider unnecessary herky-jerky motions that will just contribute to his back pains going forward. That being said he's a decent and willing passer. Unless there is dramatic improvement here if we are looking to make a move I would suggest that we start here.
Justin Holiday: Man did he have a miserable stretch to begin the season from the floor. But of late has been hitting at a far higher clip. He is not being forced to play the four as often this year so that has helped defensively and over the past week or so it seems like he is trying to get to the basket a little more which I think helps his overall game because teams can't just guard him for the three point shot when he drives. Still probably asked to do to much here. Ideally he is at best a 6th man (maybe even 7th or 8th) but because of injury and lack of depth he is often called on to start. You could do a lot worse than him, but that seems to be the Pacers motto about all of our players.
Torrey Craig: Probably playing more minutes than expected and well frankly with the injury to Jackson and Brissett being a huge flop he is your next best versatile big, well sort of big he's only 6'7" so you would ideally like to play him against bigger wings however he has shown a knack in guarding 4's as well. Offensively I wasn't sure what to expect out of him and I still have no idea what to expect. There are games where he looks like he could be a solid contributor and then there are nights he doesn't shoot the ball more than 2-3 times. Solid pickup for the team and good deep bench guy to have.
Kelan Martin: The single biggest surprise of the season. I mean Duarte was a high first round pick so while we are pleased it can't come as a total shock he was good. This guy on the other hand has transformed himself into a defender who will earn time on the floor because of the way he goes at it night after night. What is so funny about him is that in the first half of last season I didn't even see him as an NBA level player. Second half of the season he started to develop some form of offensive rhythm but this year he has been a virtual pit bull on defense. Still think he is a deep bench level player but nothing would please me more than having to admit I was wrong because he has worked his way up. I love his size as well. This guy is listed at 6'5" but I don't believe it, I think he's about 6'7" but he is built like a tank. Rick paid him the compliment of calling him a fighter and well that was more than enough to perk my interest in him. I look forward to his growth.
T.J. McConnell: Career high 9ppg, which after the rough start to the season he had i was wondering if he would ever get an offensive groove going. He's a good distributor but until he can routinely shoot something outside of 8-10' teams are just going to back off of him and dare him to shoot cutting off any driving lanes and playing hell in the passing lanes. However he is almost 30, don't think he will change much if at all. Good backup point guard. I know there are people who want him to start but the reality is he's just not good enough to do it and frankly if we do have any form of playoff run he likely will be neutralized as teams will just pack the middle on him and cause him to be very ineffective.
I'm not going to bother with the others, Goga has good games here and there but obviously he is not a priority for Carlisle. Brissett was given chances and other than one game early on has sucked sucked sucked. Jackson being injured early on blew as he went from what I had hoped would be at least routine appearances to now typical rookie blowout games.
In closing I'll say this. We are not a healthy T.J. Warren away from being a contender. Does he make us better? Probably, although let's be blunt its going to take him months, if not longer, to get into game shape. But at the end of the day contrary to what Pritchard said last year, this guy is not the second coming of Kevin Durrant. He's just a good player who will play with other good players to form a good team who will win just enough to not be bad. Sadly they are playing in a league where great players play on great teams and have actual hope of competing for playoff advancement.
Comment