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Realistically what do you think....

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  • Realistically what do you think....

    I did ask what the ideal Summer for you was & I love living through that pipe dream of what ifs, but what is your reality?

    Honestly I don't expect us to pull any of those free agents to Indiana (Walker, Harris, Russell etc.), we may upgrade through a trade but I have my doubts about that as well.

    What I expect our Summer to look like is:
    #1: We draft a wing, most likely KZ Okpala, Cam Johnson or Dylan Windler
    #2: We re-sign both Bogie & Thad
    #3: We sign a new PG (Rubio or Payton)
    #4: We add a young wing through free agency I'm looking at Rodney Hood or Mario Hezonja type.

    Hopefully a season for Oladipo to get 100% healthy, hopefully our young guys take another step in the right direction (Turner, Sabonis, Leaf, Sumner & Holiday) & we draft well.
    Last edited by festar35; 06-06-2019, 10:55 PM.

  • #2
    1 ) We sign Brogdon as our new Starting PG ( after striking out on DLo )
    2 ) Re-sign Bojan
    3 ) Draft the BPA
    4 ) Holiday replaces CoJo in the lineup as the 1st PG off the bench
    5 ) With whatever is left, fill out the Frontcourt ( maybe go after Aminu? )

    Is it possible to renounce Thad ( thus removing his $20+mil Cap Hold from the Pacers Salary Cap to make a run at a new Starting PG like Brogdon, Rubio or DLo ) and then try to go after Thad again as a UFA?
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    Comment


    • #3
      Call me an optimist, but I think we realistically have a shot at Russell (if the Nets get 2 bigger name players) or Kemba. Assuming we don't get them, I think we will trade for Conley.

      We'll re-sign Bogey. None of our other Free Agents will return.

      Draft a long, athletic wing in the 1st round and the BPA in the 2nd round.

      When healthy we will start Vic/Bogey/Turner/Sabonis and whichever of the 3 point guards I named above.

      Holiday will be the 1st guard off the bench. Leaf and Sumner will be in the regular rotation getting consistent minutes. If McDermott is still on the team, he will also be in the rotation. We'll bring in another big to put in the rotation. If McDermott is not on the team, we will sign a veteran wing to replace him.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by graphic-er

        Yes that is possible. That's exactly what the team should try and do. Spend that cap money on an all-star player and then resign bogey and then combine the remaining cap money with the ROOM mid level exception for Thad Young on a 2 year deal. (I'd only do this deal with the agreement from Nate McMillian that Thad won't be the starter next season.)

        Pacers would also have the Bi annual exception available to them to fill out the rest of the bench if use up call the cap dollars.

        Then they can offer Sabonis the early extension at the start of the season.
        You cannot combine cap space and any exception to make a deal. Also, they will have to wave the biannual cap exception as part of getting cap space.

        So I don't see any way of them getting Thad back in that scenario short of the Pacers opening up more space, but otherwise that works.

        Comment


        • #5
          I expect nothing, I can already see Pritchard telling us what a great job his people did by getting him a 2022 second round pick “I told my guys to deliver and they did”.

          I expect another dissapoiting off season like always.
          @WhatTheFFacts: Studies show that sarcasm enhances the ability of the human mind to solve complex problems!

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Cubs231721 View Post

            You cannot combine cap space and any exception to make a deal. Also, they will have to wave the biannual cap exception as part of getting cap space.
            This and this!

            Comment


            • #7
              No major free agent acquisitions.
              Sign a washed up vet or two for a 1-2 deal. Do other low risk - medium reward type of moves. Secure a team good enough to make the playoffs, that no one would want to play against, but not good enough to make an impact.
              Originally posted by Piston Prince
              Bobcat fans telling us to cheer up = epic fail season
              "Josh Smith Re-building the city of Detroit one brick at a time"

              Comment


              • #8
                The only thing that I'm certain of is that the either Russel, Walker, Conley, or Rubio will be the new staring PG. Indiana is going to resign Bojan, because no matter what people say he's a great player to have on the team, and I only expect him to get better. Holiday will be given minutes to shine as the backup PG.

                From there, that's where it'll get sketchy....I could see sign them signing Thad to a team friendly contract. If you're able to obtain one of the above PGs do you really need to upgrade the PF position, since ideally that's the WHOLE point of obtaining an All-Star PG...to break down the defense to give everyone else better looks. Plus, you'll have returning a VO.

                However...I could see Indiana going after Randle if we get Russell.


                Remember when we could have gotten 1-2 solid players and a possible Top 3 draft pick in the 2017 NBA Draft by trading away Paul George?

                Comment


                • #9
                  In order for me to make a further realistic assessment of our options, I would need to confirm my understanding of the Pacers Salary Cap situation going into Free Agency.

                  Below is the current Pacers Salary Cap situation based off of what I pulled from the Spotrac Pacers link at https://www.spotrac.com/nba/indiana-pacers/cap/2019/ :

                  - Pacers have 8 Players under contract that is owed a total of $57.92 mil in guaranteed Salary. Add in Monte's Dead Cap $$$ and we are at $60.25 mil.

                  Dipo / Myles / McDermott / Sabonis / Leaf / Holiday / Sumner / Alize

                  - Add in Bojan's Cap Hold and we are now at roughly $74 mil.
                  - NBA 2019 Salary Cap is $109 mil.
                  - Thad's Cap Hold is $20.65 mil

                  Assume the following:

                  - the Pacers then release CoJo, Tyreke, Collison, O'Quinn, Wesley and Davon Reed to Free Agency
                  - the Pacers keep the 18th Pick, add roughly $2.5 mil as a starting Salary for the 1st round pick
                  - Keeping the 18th Pick would mean that the Pacers would have to sign 4 Free Agents

                  The Pacers are therefore left with 2 likely Scenarios:

                  Scenario A

                  - The Pacers decide to release Thad to Free Agency ( thus giving up his Bird Rights which they should due to the size of his $20.65 mil Cap Hold ).
                  - This would leave roughly $32.5 mil left to spend on Free Agents ( which also includes the option to then re-sign Thad after releasing him to Free Agency ).

                  Scenario B

                  - The Pacers decide to keep Thad's Bird Rights and re-sign Thad.
                  - This would leave roughly $12 mil left to spend on Free Agents

                  Question 1 ) Are the numbers that I run above somewhere in the ball park to give us an idea about what direction that we can head?

                  Assuming that my numbers are somewhat in the same ballpark, my guess is that we are likely looking at Scenario A as the best and only route if the Pacers want to make a run at a new Starting Quality Free Agent. The reality is that Thad's Cap Hold is too big to justify keeping it. Releasing that Cap Hold would give the Pacers far more options when it comes to Free Agents to pursue.

                  Question 2 ) Even if the Pacers want to re-sign Thad, is there any reason to keep his Bird Rights and therefore his $20.6 mil Cap hold on the Pacers Salary Cap?

                  The only reason to keep a Players Bird Rights is if that Player's Market Value will be higher than the Cap Hold. This would be the case for Bojan. I think that we can offer him up to $18 mil due to his Early Bird Rights....which should be in the ball park of what he should get on the Free Agent Market. But for Thad, there's no way that Thad will get a contract that will start at $20 mil. My guess is that there is no real reason to keep Thad's Cap Hold and that if the Pacers want to re-sign him that they will do so after releasing his Cap Hold then pursuing him again as a UFA.

                  Question 3 ) If the Pacers decide to make a run at Conley and they include McDermott in the trade while releasing Thad's Cap Hold, does that mean that the difference in the Salaries ( roughly $25 mil ) would eat into the Pacers $32.5 mil that they have to spend on Free Agents leaving between $7.3 mil to spend ( assuming the Pacers keep #18 ) or up to $9.8 mil ( if the Pacers send #18 with McDermott to the Grizzlies )?

                  My guess is that trading for Conley will allow us to dump McDermott but will then eat into our available $$$ to spend on Free Agents ( which I guess is inevitable ). I can see some appeal to going after Conley given that his contract does align and end at the same time that Dipo's contract is finished. But ignoring his age and past injury concerns, the likelihood of having to give up #18 to get him ( which I don't want to do because I think that it's critical to develop young but cheap talent ) and prospect of dumping McDermott's contract, I'm not particularly fond of the Pacers Salary Cap situation AFTER such a trade. The Pacers would only have roughly $7.3 to 9.8 mil to spend IN ADDITION to using the Pacers Mid-Level Exception ( please correct me if I am wrong ) on a minimum of 4 Free Agents. At most, we can get a decent Frontcourt Player to replace Thad, another decent Bench Player ( using the Mid-Level Exception ) then a bunch of Vet Minimum Players to fill out the roster of 13. I'd only consider going after Conley if it meant not giving up #18 but a future lottery protected 1st or multiple 2nd round picks ( yes, I think that it is super critical to develop in house talent that is cheap ).

                  If this is the case, then I'd rather go with Scenario A and then pursue DLo with the MAX, Rubio with a NEAR MAX . If that falls through, then I'd go after Brogdon and then Elfrid ( as a worse case scenario ). My guess is that Brogdon can be had for roughly $18 to 20 mil a year ( Elfrid which I think can be had for even less ) then use the rest of the $$ to get a decent Frontcourt Player and another Wing. It just looks like we have more $$$ to spend on Free Agents if we go that route.

                  Any comments and/or corrections to my assumptions above?
                  Last edited by CableKC; 06-07-2019, 02:13 PM.
                  Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by CableKC View Post
                    In order for me to make a further realistic assessment of our options, I would need to confirm my understanding of the Pacers Salary Cap situation going into Free Agency.

                    Below is the current Pacers Salary Cap situation based off of what I pulled from the Spotrac Pacers link at https://www.spotrac.com/nba/indiana-pacers/cap/2019/ :

                    - Pacers have 8 Players under contract that is owed a total of $57.92 mil in guaranteed Salary. Add in Monte's Dead Cap $$$ and we are at $60.25 mil.

                    Dipo / Myles / McDermott / Sabonis / Leaf / Holiday / Sumner / Alize

                    - Add in Bojan's Cap Hold and we are now at roughly $74 mil.
                    - NBA 2019 Salary Cap is $109 mil.
                    - Thad's Cap Hold is $20.65 mil

                    Assume the following:

                    - the Pacers then release CoJo, Tyreke, Collison, O'Quinn, Wesley and Davon Reed to Free Agency
                    - the Pacers keep the 18th Pick, add roughly $2.5 mil as a starting Salary for the 1st round pick
                    - Keeping the 18th Pick would mean that the Pacers would have to sign 4 Free Agents

                    The Pacers are therefore left with 2 likely Scenarios:

                    Scenario A

                    - The Pacers decide to release Thad to Free Agency ( thus giving up his Bird Rights which they should due to the size of his $20.65 mil Cap Hold ).
                    - This would leave roughly $32.5 mil left to spend on Free Agents ( which also includes the option to then re-sign Thad after releasing him to Free Agency ).

                    Scenario B

                    - The Pacers decide to keep Thad's Bird Rights and re-sign Thad.
                    - This would leave roughly $12 mil left to spend on Free Agents

                    Question 1 ) Are the numbers that I run above somewhere in the ball park to give us an idea about what direction that we can head?

                    Assuming that my numbers are somewhat in the same ballpark, my guess is that we are likely looking at Scenario A as the best and only route if the Pacers want to make a run at a new Starting Quality Free Agent. The reality is that Thad's Cap Hold is too big to justify keeping it. Releasing that Cap Hold would give the Pacers far more options when it comes to Free Agents to pursue.

                    Question 2 ) Even if the Pacers want to re-sign Thad, is there any reason to keep his Bird Rights and therefore his $20.6 mil Cap hold on the Pacers Salary Cap?

                    The only reason to keep a Players Bird Rights is if that Player's Market Value will be higher than the Cap Hold. This would be the case for Bojan. I think that we can offer him up to $18 mil due to his Early Bird Rights....which should be in the ball park of what he should get on the Free Agent Market. But for Thad, there's no way that Thad will get a contract that will start at $20 mil. My guess is that there is no real reason to keep Thad's Cap Hold and that if the Pacers want to re-sign him that they will do so after releasing his Cap Hold then pursuing him again as a UFA.

                    Question 3 ) If the Pacers decide to make a run at Conley and they include McDermott in the trade while releasing Thad's Cap Hold, does that mean that the difference in the Salaries ( roughly $25 mil ) would eat into the Pacers $32.5 mil that they have to spend on Free Agents leaving between $7.3 mil to spend ( assuming the Pacers keep #18 ) or up to $9.8 mil ( if the Pacers send #18 with McDermott to the Grizzlies )?

                    My guess is that trading for Conley will allow us to dump McDermott but will then eat into our available $$$ to spend on Free Agents ( which I guess is inevitable ). I can see some appeal to going after Conley given that his contract does align and end at the same time that Dipo's contract is finished. But ignoring his age and past injury concerns, the likelihood of having to give up #18 to get him ( which I don't want to do because I think that it's critical to develop young but cheap talent ) and prospect of dumping McDermott's contract, I'm not particularly fond of the Pacers Salary Cap situation AFTER such a trade. The Pacers would only have roughly $7.3 to 9.8 mil to spend IN ADDITION to using the Pacers Mid-Level Exception ( please correct me if I am wrong ) on a minimum of 4 Free Agents. At most, we can get a decent Frontcourt Player to replace Thad, another decent Bench Player ( using the Mid-Level Exception ) then a bunch of Vet Minimum Players to fill out the roster of 13. I'd only consider going after Conley if it meant not giving up #18 but a future lottery protected 1st or multiple 2nd round picks ( yes, I think that it is super critical to develop in house talent that is cheap ).

                    If this is the case, then I'd rather go with Scenario A and then pursue DLo with the MAX, Rubio with a NEAR MAX . If that falls through, then I'd go after Brogdon and then Elfrid ( as a worse case scenario ). My guess is that Brogdon can be had for roughly $18 to 20 mil a year ( Elfrid which I think can be had for even less ) then use the rest of the $$ to get a decent Frontcourt Player and another Wing. It just looks like we have more $$$ to spend on Free Agents if we go that route.

                    Any comments and/or corrections to my assumptions above?
                    As I understand it, I think you have it basically right.

                    We have 8 players, Ellis contract and Bogey's cap hold would get us to around $74 million in salaries. We would have 35 million to sign at least 3 more guys. You have to have at least 12 guys under contract in the $109 million cap.

                    Our 1st round pick will get around $2.3 million. Our second round pick will get around $900,000. We will be left with about $31.8 million to sign at least 1 Free Agent.

                    We could move back in the draft to around pick 28 and free up some money to get a $32.7 million player. We could also release Sumner or Johnson to free up money because only part of their contracts are guaranteed. If we trade for Conley (for example) and include McDermott and a draft pick or picks, McDermott's contract comes off the cap and Conley's is added. So instead of having $31.8 to sign a Free Agent, we will add McDermott's $7.3 million and subtract Conley's $32.5 million. We will have roughly $6.6 million to sign at least 1 more player. Once we reach the cap, exceptions come into play. We can also go back and sign Bogey to up to $18.3 million which will legally put us over the cap.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      So if we bring Thad back to a contract around 10 million or so, we have basically 20-25 million to go all in one one PG, or split between two guards, presumably A PG and a SG that is Vic insurance, in other words a sixth man/possible starter?

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Also, if we decide to go the route of Conley, then you sign Thad and Bogey to the biggest two-year contracts possible, then you have a two year window, where all your big contracts fall off at the same time, not a fan of this, but if you get Conley, then I don’t want Bogey and Thad taking up 30 million dollars in three years.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by sav View Post

                          As I understand it, I think you have it basically right.

                          We have 8 players, Ellis contract and Bogey's cap hold would get us to around $74 million in salaries. We would have 35 million to sign at least 3 more guys. You have to have at least 12 guys under contract in the $109 million cap.

                          I thought the minimum # of Players on the roster was 13....not 12?

                          If 12, then that's even better. But at that point, it doesn't matter...since we can sign Vet minimum Players to fill the gap.

                          Originally posted by sav View Post
                          Our 1st round pick will get around $2.3 million. Our second round pick will get around $900,000. We will be left with about $31.8 million to sign at least 1 Free Agent.
                          I wasn't really considering our 2nd round pick....but given that the cost would be the same as a Vet minimum contract....I'd rather have the upside than a Vet sitting at the end of the bench.

                          Originally posted by sav View Post
                          We could move back in the draft to around pick 28 and free up some money to get a $32.7 million player. We could also release Sumner or Johnson to free up money because only part of their contracts are guaranteed.
                          Moving back in the draft will do very little since we are only talking about saving maybe 500k to 1 mil in guaranteed Salary. Releasing Sumner or Alize would do very little since we'd still have to fill whatever roster spot that they held at the same cost as a Vet Minimum Salary. I'd think that both options wouldn't make enough of a difference when it comes to signing a larger Free Agent.

                          Originally posted by sav View Post
                          Trade for Conley (for example) and include McDermott and a draft pick or picks, McDermott's contract comes off the cap and Conley's is added. So instead of having $31.8 to sign a Free Agent, we will add McDermott's $7.3 million and subtract Conley's $32.5 million. We will have roughly $6.6 million to sign at least 1 more player. Once we reach the cap, exceptions come into play. We can also go back and sign Bogey to up to $18.3 million which will legally put us over the cap.
                          I think that we are in the same ball park when it comes to the ending $$$ left to sign Free Agents in a Conley trade. I don't mind looking at the Conley trade scenario as a Plan C or D ( if the price is right ), but I would much rather go young and cheaper so that the Pacers have more $$$ to spend to fill up the roster.
                          Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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                          • #14
                            What if.....?

                            Mike Conley has an early termination option for the 2020-21 season ($34.5M). What if an informal agreement is made to secure the trade such that Conley voluntarily terminates the final year of his current contract ($32.5M for next season) ... and we re-sign him to, say, a new four-year contract at a lesser amount? Given his age, I'd prefer a declining salary, but whatever. Probably something around Dipo's salary in the low 20s.

                            If such a arrangement could be made, we'd bite the bullet next season while Dipo's getting up to speed, then be in good shape with our salary structure while having added another key (albeit aging) piece. Over the course of Conley's contract, Holiday (and Sumner?) could be developed more slowly, getting quality minutes during the regular season and keeping Conley's minutes under 30.


                            "Sumner reminds me of a young Paul George."

                            - Clyde Drexler.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by CableKC View Post
                              [/B]
                              I thought the minimum # of Players on the roster was 13....not 12?
                              http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

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