All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

[BillS]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Eh, at the end of the day Roy's effectiveness on defense declined and he could not punish smaller lineups on the other end.

True, but at least initially (playoffs 2014) the decline was more due to style and the ineffectiveness of his offense was about the same but hurt us more. In other words, ROY didn't change, everything else did.

Last year, though, I think it actually started to affect his regular defense and I think it certainly has affected it this year. Offensively, Roy is Roy - meaning his offense is not going to make up for his diminished worth on defense.

[freddielewis14]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

To be fair, those defensive reasons were mostly because he could not defend the way teams were playing their bigs against us, not because he could no longer defend what he had defended in the past.

Eh, at the end of the day Roy's effectiveness on defense declined and he could not punish smaller lineups on the other end.

[BillS]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

benched Roy for defensive reasons.

To be fair, those defensive reasons were mostly because he could not defend the way teams were playing their bigs against us, not because he could no longer defend what he had defended in the past.

[freddielewis14]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Oh, but it's very relevant. Nobody..or at least I'm not..saying that Roy has changed. I've been saying that the NBA is changing and the league figured him out. So in relative terms he has indeed been progressively declining. His boards are an embarrassment and so is his FG% for a 7'2" C.

If he was in there dominating the paint and playing like Tim Duncan, he would be averaging 35+ minutes a game like Tim Duncan did in his prime. Duncan one year averaged over 40mpg. Roy has never averaged 30 and he's averaging less minutes per game the last two years than the prior four years.

If he was valuable to have on the court, his minutes would reflect it. You don't sit a player who is producing.

Both sides admit Roy isn't a great offensive player, the argument all off season was his defense. Where Roy changed was defense. Vogel saw the decline and according to Vogel, benched Roy for defensive reasons. Now the stats that were used in the off season as an argument to say Roy was still elite are gone. Roy has taken even larger steps back this season on the defensive end.

I'm glad the Pacers saw the decline and didn't cling to cherry picker per 36 stats to say "Roy is the same."

[Since86]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Good one.

[BlueNGold]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

So "progressively declining" isn't "changing?" Okay.

Isn't it odd that the two issues you mention, rebounding/FG%, are issues that Roy has had for about 5-6 yrs now? He's always been an average to below average rebounder, and he's struggled for the majority of his career to shoot a high FG%. They're not new issues. Once again, showing it was a "progressive decline" but rather "plateau."

He may well be a bench player before you get to 25,000 posts.

[Since86]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Oh, but it's very relevant. Nobody..or at least I'm not..saying that Roy has changed. I've been saying that the NBA is changing and the league figured him out. So in relative terms he has indeed been progressively declining. His boards are an embarrassment and so is his FG% for a 7'2" C.

If he was in there dominating the paint and playing like Tim Duncan, he would be averaging 35+ minutes a game like Tim Duncan did in his prime. Duncan one year averaged over 40mpg. Roy has never averaged 30 and he's averaging less minutes per game the last two years than the prior four years.

If he was valuable to have on the court, his minutes would reflect it. You don't sit a player who is producing.

So "progressively declining" isn't "changing?" Okay.

Isn't it odd that the two issues you mention, rebounding/FG%, are issues that Roy has had for about 5-6 yrs now? He's always been an average to below average rebounder, and he's struggled for the majority of his career to shoot a high FG%. They're not new issues.

[BlueNGold]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Right, it could be the reason for decline in minutes. Or it could not be the reason. Simply saying his minutes declined doesn't tell us why, nor is it proof of a "progressive decline" by itself.

Oh, but it's very relevant. Nobody..or at least I'm not..saying that Roy has changed. I've been saying that the NBA is changing and the league figured him out. So in relative terms he has indeed been progressively declining. His boards are an embarrassment and so is his FG% for a 7'2" C.

If he was in there dominating the paint and playing like Tim Duncan, he would be averaging 35+ minutes a game like Tim Duncan did in his prime. Duncan one year averaged over 40mpg. Roy has never averaged 30 and he's averaging less minutes per game the last two years than the prior four years.

If he was valuable to have on the court, his minutes would reflect it. You don't sit a player who is producing.

[freddielewis14]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

I "cherry picked" the year that you talked about BnG!


I use the year you think he was good in, vs the last year in Indy showing pretty much exact same numbers.




Def rating is a TEAM stat.

I show individual stats only pertaining to Roy to show Roy as an individual didn't decline, you use a team stat to show Roy as an individual declined......

Here's an individual stat thrown at me all off season by you and Nuntius, rim protection. Roy has declined at guarding his man, and protecting the rim. Now he isn't even top 25 at rim protection.

A player with limited offensive ability at center, unable to catch the ball and finish or manage an average FG% for a center, must have an impact on defense. Vogel benched Roy as a Pacer for defensive reasons and Hibbert no longer protects the rim or guards his opponent at an elite level.

[Pacergeek]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

I wonder where Hibbert could possibly fit as a starter though .

In a league that is going small, 3 ballish and faster, it takes a lot of courage to take the opposite direction and invest starters money in a center who will slow down your offense and is one of the worst if not thé worst perimeter defender among big men.

Courage or desperation I guess.

Would LAL even consider re-signing him? Their defense is just as bad (29th in the league) as last year and their offense looks a lot like ours from the past few years:
trying to beat the shot clock and trying to make the entry pass.

The smartest thing for him to do might be taking a cheap short deal as as backup of someone like Gobert, get his confidence back and be one of the most supportful players on the bench. If he signs a big and long deal somewhere, I doubt it will be for a good playoff team.

Roy isn't signing a long term, lucrative deal anywhere bro. Roy will be a reserve player next season. Zaza Pachulia is having a better year than Hibbert

[Since86]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Not necessarily. If his minutes declined precisely because he was unable to keep up that rate in extended playing time, then you have the exact example of something affected by playing time that vanishes when you use rate of production statistics.

Right, it could be the reason for decline in minutes. Or it could not be the reason. Simply saying his minutes declined doesn't tell us why, nor is it proof of a "progressive decline" by itself.

[BillS]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Right. Which could be because of performance. Or it could be due to changing styles.

Changing styles isn't mutually exclusive with performance issues. But to say Roy "progressively declined" when his production rate is identical to the season BnG thinks he played well in is, again, a stretch.

Not necessarily. If his minutes declined precisely because he was unable to keep up that rate in extended playing time, then you have the exact example of something affected by playing time that vanishes when you use rate of production statistics.

[Since86]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Which takes us back to the argument of why the minutes dropped.

Right. Which could be because of performance. Or it could be due to changing styles.

Changing styles isn't mutually exclusive with performance issues. But to say Roy "progressively declined" when his production rate is identical to the season BnG thinks he played well in is, again, a stretch.

[BillS]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Per-36 isn't a "If they played 36mins they'd average X stat." Per-36 is used to compare apples to apples, like I said.

This is true only if the number of minutes a player is able to play isn't part of the issue. You can't normalize away a comparison variable.

For the full year statistics you are right, but if you look at just the end of the season you'll see the minutes drop significantly. Which takes us back to the argument of why the minutes dropped.

[BillS]

Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

Those would be fine IF he could stay on the floor for 36 minutes.

But - here's a cold hard statistical fact - he couldn't stay on the court for even close to 36 minutes, so those numbers don't mean squat.

Those numbers might have some meaning in a case where a player got fewer minutes because the roster was stacked at his position, and maybe the coach wanted to use more players, but that wasn't the case with Roy.

The real minutes per game difference in the statistics presented is about 2.5 (27.8 2012 vs 25.3 2015). Given those, your conclusion is flawed for those two particular years as a whole.

I might suggest comparing subsets of the year rather than the full year, when the argument might have more foundation.