All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

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  • BillS
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Since86
    This is the first time you've mentioned 14th. What are the actual FG% numbers?
    Originally posted by BillS
    Roy's 2014-2015 oppFG% was 42.7%, while his oppFG% in 2013-2014 was 40.9%. All we have to assume is that he started 2014-2015 at the same level he averaged in 2013-2014 and assume a steady decline and it means he could have finished the year with an oppFG% of 44.5% - dropping him (compared to everyone's averages, which is a bit flawed but the data we have) from 4th to 14th (average among starters?).
    Originally posted by Since86
    But anyone who thinks a defender has gotten so bad at defense they don't warrant their normal level of PT, over a drop of 1.4% in oppFG% is someone with unreal, unrealistic, absolutely crazy *** expectations.
    But that's only over the course of one year. From the previous year it would total a drop of almost 4%. It's also not factoring in the idea that he wasn't able to keep up that level of performance the entire time on the floor in an individual game - if his minutes were dropping so he could maintain a level that was also dropping, at some point you have to figure things are going downhill.

    I think a gradual slide over a couple of years leading to the drop this season is much more logical than that Roy was playing at an unchanged level but going to another team suddenly dropped his individual stat by 8% or more. It's not like another team funneling players to him because they can't play defense is going to change his role from being on a team that funneled players to him on purpose.

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  • freddielewis14
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Posted before, but I think Lowe's article in the off season describes why it's so difficult to prove this argument with stats...

    Opponents shot just 42.6 percent on close shots when Hibbert was nearby, one of the best marks in the league for a frontline defender, per NBA.com. Team officials with access to secret-sauce stats tell me that number masks some slippage, but even so, Hibbert’s strength remains strong.


    Anybody can find stats to agree with their opinion if they look hard enough, but we now know that Hibbert was in fact declining. We know Hibbert has not been a difference maker on defense this season, so if someone is looking at stats that say Hibbert wasn't on the decline, perhaps they're just looking at the wrong stats?

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  • Since86
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by BillS
    But by the end of the season his per-game production was (possibly) 14th, not 4th. You really can't decide if a player is changing based on just his average over 82 games. You have to look at the game-to-game trend, and if he is declining steadily from one game to the next - even if on average he was fine - you can't just say he is what his average shows, unless you think that trend was due to some kind of extenuating circumstances.
    This is the first time you've mentioned 14th. What are the actual FG% numbers?

    Theoretically, someone could go from #1 to #5 and their numbers stay the exact same. The drop would be to other players getting better. I'm not saying that is what happened, I'm just saying what are the actual numbers because telling me the ranks, minus the cold hard statistics, could be misleading.

    You've mentioned post-ASG being 7th, so his level of 14th must be that one month? There are going to be fluctuations. No one, regardless of what is being argued should expect static production. (when talking about sport performances) Only machines could be that consistent.

    But anyone who thinks a defender has gotten so bad at defense they don't warrant their normal level of PT, over a drop of 1.4% in oppFG% is someone with unreal, unrealistic, absolutely crazy *** expectations.
    Last edited by Since86; 12-18-2015, 02:49 PM.

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  • BillS
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Since86
    Going from the best rim protector to 4th is technically getting "worse."
    But by the end of the season his per-game production was (possibly) 14th, not 4th. You really can't decide if a player is changing based on just his average over 82 games. You have to look at the game-to-game trend, and if he is declining steadily from one game to the next - even if on average he was fine - you can't just say he is what his average shows, unless you think that trend was due to some kind of extenuating circumstances.

    Again, I am extrapolating from available data, and my rankings with pre- and post-ASG are VERY rough because I'm only counting players who played within 2 games of the number of games Roy played in that timeframe.

    For some of these things you also can't plan based on how other players are doing - you are looking at how a player is doing compared to himself. If every starting center in the league but one played injured then the one healthy guy could end up #1 in the league with a pretty crappy set of statistics - that doesn't suddenly make him worth a maximum salary as the best center in the league. This isn't as drastic but it is the same idea.

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  • BillS
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    I did use oppFG% numbers instead of rim protection numbers there because your link in your earlier argument was to his oppFG%. But I think the argument that a steady decline is possible without having to have started the year spectacularly still holds.

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  • Since86
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by BillS
    So if you accept his numbers on rim protection and other strengths from previous years, do you mean he 'suddenly declined' over the summer rather than 'progressively declined' over last year?
    It's a possibility. Or he could be on a horrible defensive team and one guy has a hard time making such a large defensive impact when he's surrounded by 3-4 other turnstyles on defense.

    You'll never get even an acknowledgement of possibility that Roy's defense didn't decline from the other side of the conversation though.


    Originally posted by BillS
    The problem I have is that you act that in order for his rim protection at the end of the year to have shown a decline in a 30-day analysis then his rim protection at the beginning of the season in a 30-day analysis would have had to have been super spectacular. I disagree with this.
    If his defense is as bad as construed, and his overall numbers were still so low, the only explanation is that his earlier numbers had to be reversely that good in order to end up with the elite average.

    The problem isn't with my beginning very of really really really good, but rather the end with him being so bad.

    And again, the people talking about Roy's decline were talking about his decline starting in 13-14 season. At no point in time during last season did they ever reverse their position. IF Roy was that good at the beginning of last year, shouldn't here at least have been a pause in talking about how bad Roy was defensively? There wasn't. They've talked continually from Dec. of 13 to today talking about Roy's defensive issues. Not one single time have they ever acknowledge Roy's elite level of defense last season. Not one single minute, let alone a long enough stretch to counter balance the supposed decline as the year went on.

    Originally posted by BillS
    Roy's 2014-2015 oppFG% was 42.7%, while his oppFG% in 2013-2014 was 40.9%. All we have to assume is that he started 2014-2015 at the same level he averaged in 2013-2014 and assume a steady decline and it means he could have finished the year with an oppFG% of 44.5% - dropping him (compared to everyone's averages, which is a bit flawed but the data we have) from 4th to 14th (average among starters?). This year he is 12th among players with the exact same number of games (lower if you count those with a couple games fewer) with a sharper decline to 49.3%.

    Now, this doesn't postulate that he crashed and burned during the year last year, but it does support a valid theory that he got steadily worse - at least until we can find month-by-month non-cumulative numbers to disprove it.
    Here's the problem with this though. Roy ended up 4th in DefFG%, all while the same posters have been arguing that he was so bad defensively he had to be replaced. IF that was true, shouldn't we see a bigger decline than going from top 3 to top 4?

    I can be on board with Roy getting "worse" as long as it's framed in proper context. Going from the best rim protector to 4th is technically getting "worse." That undeniable as 4 is worse than 1. But when you look at what "worse" actually means in the context of their argument, it doesn't make much sense. If the position is that 4th isn't good enough to warrant him PT, then there's only 3, at the most in the entire NBA, big men defenders who's play defensively warrant significant PT.

    That is an extreme position. It is an unrealistic expectation.

    The fact that Roy's defensive numbers stayed elite, when the Pacers two next best perimeter defenders who played with Roy a majority of the time didn't play for 95% of the season and almost 50% of the season, say's Roy's decline couldn't have been that bad, and certainly not anywhere near the level of it being argued.


    Originally posted by BillS
    EDIT TO ADD: This is somewhat supported on ther NBA stats page by filtering 2014-2015 by Pre All Star and then Post All Star. Roy's oppFG% pre-ASG was 42.2%, his oppFG% post ASG was 43.6%, his rank pre ASG was around 2nd (depending on the number of games you count for valid stat) and post ASG was 7th (same caveat). I think that supports a steady decline through the year.
    I don't know if your numbers are true, but for the sake of argument I'll agree.

    So the position is, 7th best interior defender in the NBA isn't good enough on defense to warrant normal level of PT? When you add in the offensive issues, it's starts making a bit more sense. The only way you can point to defensive issues, is to say 7th isn't good enough and I think that is crazy. When there's only 6 players better than you in a league with 400 some odd total players, and 150ish big men players, that's being in the top 95% of the league. If being top 5% isn't good enough defensively, then I have to question the standards being applied.

    "A top 5% defender doesn't play very much any more, because of defensive reasons." That is a crazy, over-the-top position. And that's been the position, not only when talking about being top 7, but top 4!

    EDIT: And that's just focusing on where he ranks comparative to the rest of the league. That's not even addressing that "progressively declining" is now being defined as a 1.4% change in oppFG%. If PG starts shooting 1.4% less than what he has been, who here is going to argue he's getting "progressively worse?"

    I bet no one, and no one should. It would be absurd. The difference is 1.4 made FG out of 100. Unless the expectation is that he has to stay 100% consistent, it still continues to make zero sense regardless of the way you look at it.
    Last edited by Since86; 12-18-2015, 02:38 PM.

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  • BillS
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Since86
    Roy didn't "progressively decline." He does the things he does at a high level. But big men are being asked to do more, and Roy cannot do that. That doesn't mean Roy "declined" that means Roy couldn't meet the new expectations. Once again, using that word.
    So if you accept his numbers on rim protection and other strengths from previous years, do you mean he 'suddenly declined' over the summer rather than 'progressively declined' over last year?

    The problem I have is that you act that in order for his rim protection at the end of the year to have shown a decline in a 30-day analysis then his rim protection at the beginning of the season in a 30-day analysis would have had to have been super spectacular. I disagree with this.

    Roy's 2014-2015 oppFG% was 42.7%, while his oppFG% in 2013-2014 was 40.9%. All we have to assume is that he started 2014-2015 at the same level he averaged in 2013-2014 and assume a steady decline and it means he could have finished the year with an oppFG% of 44.5% - dropping him (compared to everyone's averages, which is a bit flawed but the data we have) from 4th to 14th (average among starters?). This year he is 12th among players with the exact same number of games (lower if you count those with a couple games fewer) with a sharper decline to 49.3%.

    Now, this doesn't postulate that he crashed and burned during the year last year, but it does support a valid theory that he got steadily worse - at least until we can find month-by-month non-cumulative numbers to disprove it.

    EDIT TO ADD: This is somewhat supported on ther NBA stats page by filtering 2014-2015 by Pre All Star and then Post All Star. Roy's oppFG% pre-ASG was 42.2%, his oppFG% post ASG was 43.6%, his rank pre ASG was around 2nd (depending on the number of games you count for valid stat) and post ASG was 7th (same caveat). I think that supports a steady decline through the year.

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  • BenR1990
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Rogco
    At this point Roy does 4 things at a very high level:
    1.) Shoot free throws
    2.) Stay healthy and play almost every night
    3.) Fall over
    4.) Pass (blame)
    5) Has the ability to make former fans obsess over him in a season where he's playing in a different conference on one of the least competitive teams in the NBA.

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  • Rogco
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by freddielewis14
    What does Roy do at high level? .
    At this point Roy does 4 things at a very high level:
    1.) Shoot free throws
    2.) Stay healthy and play almost every night
    3.) Fall over
    4.) Pass (blame)

    Edit: I do find it really interesting going back and re-reading PD threads. Hibbert played his best ball from 2011-2012, and probably second best from 2012-2013, yet most of the articles on here are pretty damning of him even then. Mostly because he would periodically become awful and have a serious negative impact on the team for 2-4 weeks before turning it back around, but also because, even after his best season in the league, no one on here really considered him elite or thought him worthy of a max contract. Now, with three more seasons as a Pacer under his belt, each worse than the year before, there is an argument over Hibbert's value and his "elite"status. I think a myth of Hibbert was created long after the best days of Hibbert.
    Last edited by Rogco; 12-18-2015, 01:34 PM.

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  • freddielewis14
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Since86
    Roy didn't "progressively decline." He does the things he does at a high level. But big men are being asked to do more, and Roy cannot do that. That doesn't mean Roy "declined" that means Roy couldn't meet the new expectations. Once again, using that word.
    What does Roy do at high level? He doesn't guard his man any better than Jordan Hill. He's 25th in rim protection. He has no offense. He doesn't rebound well for a big. He shoots free throws at high level, that's it.

    To say Roy hasn't declined is just being stubborn and not admitting being wrong at this point.

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  • Since86
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    It is physically impossible for Roy to adapt his body in that way. No amount of hard work would ever turn Roy light of foot.

    It's like thinking your dog should adapt to meow.

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  • Pacergeek
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by Since86
    No. I'm saying the changes to offensive style made Roy's defense less impactful because teams are trying to spread out the court.

    I have never ever denied Roy's problems in getting out to perimeter shooters. As the league phases out low post scorers and starts emphasizing jump shooting big men, defenders who bang in the post are becoming less important to a defense. A defender like Anthony Davis is the hope, not a defender like Roy.

    Roy didn't change, the desires/wants that coaches want/need to get out of their big men defenders did.

    And no, the game didn't suddenly change overnight and it didn't just change defensively. The progression has been going on for some time. But the Pacers held out and held out and held out. They wanted to make offensive changes, and decided that the defensive negatives were acceptable in order to facilitate the desired offensive changes. The Pacers decided that their offensive game wasn't good enough, so they made offensive changes. (and pointing out that they went with the no-offense Ian doesn't compute, considering the changes made at the 4 spot. Can't look at the one change in a vacuum)

    You know how some people change cars every year, or every couple of years? I think that's probably a real world comparison that highlights X not changing but rather Y. The car didn't progressively get worse, they wants of the owner did. I work insurance and I see/hear it routinely. "No the car was great, I just wanted a new one."

    And before someone runs in and says "people change cars because their car broke down all the time!" No crap. That is one reason for getting a new vehicle. But some people like change for reasons other than the performance of said previous car.

    Roy didn't "progressively decline." He does the things he does at a high level. But big men are being asked to do more, and Roy cannot do that. That doesn't mean Roy "declined" that means Roy couldn't meet the new expectations. Once again, using that word.
    Don't good players adapt to the changes coaches make though? If Roy has a limited skill set, isn't that proof that he isn't very good?

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  • Since86
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    Originally posted by BillS
    So basically you are using the argument that Roy is still really good defensively but stupid coaches (including Vogel) weren't/aren't using him properly?
    No. I'm saying the changes to offensive style made Roy's defense less impactful because teams are trying to spread out the court.

    I have never ever denied Roy's problems in getting out to perimeter shooters. As the league phases out low post scorers and starts emphasizing jump shooting big men, defenders who bang in the post are becoming less important to a defense. A defender like Anthony Davis is the hope, not a defender like Roy.

    Roy didn't change, the desires/wants that coaches want/need to get out of their big men defenders did.

    And no, the game didn't suddenly change overnight and it didn't just change defensively. The progression has been going on for some time. But the Pacers held out and held out and held out. They wanted to make offensive changes, and decided that the defensive negatives were acceptable in order to facilitate the desired offensive changes. The Pacers decided that their offensive game wasn't good enough, so they made offensive changes. (and pointing out that they went with the no-offense Ian doesn't compute, considering the changes made at the 4 spot. Can't look at the one change in a vacuum)

    You know how some people change cars every year, or every couple of years? I think that's probably a real world comparison that highlights X not changing but rather Y. The car didn't progressively get worse, they wants of the owner did. I work insurance and I see/hear it routinely. "No the car was great, I just wanted a new one."

    And before someone runs in and says "people change cars because their car broke down all the time!" No crap. That is one reason for getting a new vehicle. But some people like change for reasons other than the performance of said previous car.

    Roy didn't "progressively decline." He does the things he does at a high level. But big men are being asked to do more, and Roy cannot do that. That doesn't mean Roy "declined" that means Roy couldn't meet the new expectations. Once again, using that word.
    Last edited by Since86; 12-18-2015, 12:05 PM.

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  • freddielewis14
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    How is this even a discussion let alone a debate? Roy Hibbert is playing the worst offense and defense of his career and at 29 his value is lower than it's ever been. Even as a draft pick he was traded for more. He doesn't guard his man well, he doesn't protect the rim, and has an awful fg% for a center even in VERY limited touches.

    Hibbert, a former All NBA all star, has without question declined. How is this even a debate?

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  • BillS
    replied
    Re: All things Roy Hibbert for the next year or so....

    So basically you are using the argument that Roy is still really good defensively but stupid coaches (including Vogel) weren't/aren't using him properly?

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