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With free agency set to begin in less than a day, I thought it would be a good idea to summarize some basic cap rules, plus our exact salary situation. Many of you will know all of this by heart, but most fans do not know the exact cap details for their respective teams. So, I thought a basic and easy to find thread about the particulars might spare us some inane discussions in a couple of weeks mad by people angry at our front office inaction. Cap experts, if I have made any errors in this post, feel free to further explain them or correct me.
Anyone with CBA questions can always refer to this website, which is what everyone uses for this purpose:
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm
First, our salaries for 2014-2015 as of June 30, 2014:
1. Roy Hibbert $14,898,938
2. Paul George $ 16,702,350
3. David West $12,000,000
4. George Hill $ 8,000,000
5. Ian Mahimni $ 4,000,000
6. Chris Copeland $3,135,000
7. C.J. Watson $2,077,000
8. Solomon Hill $1,307,840
We are also on the hook for Luis Scola, who has a partial guarantee of $1,940,946.
If, as I now expect, we keep Scola for this year, add $2,927,533 to that number. If Indiana can get a better replacement for Scola for that amount or less, I am all for it, but I find that an unlikely outcome. Plus, having Scola's expiring contract is potentially a handy trade tool for a team with little assets to trade during next season.
9. Luis Scola would then be in total: $4,868,499
10. Donald Sloan is not guaranteed, but if we also keep him as expected, he is on the hook for $948,163.
This I view is the likeliest scenario going into next season. The total if that comes true: $67,090,920 for 10 players total under contract.
The soft NBA salary cap for 2014-2015 is $63,200,000, which means we are operating just over that....which is a much better position to be in from a cap perspective......which along with Bird's stated goal of keeping continuity is the reason why I believe Scola returns. Sloan could go away by August 15, which is when his contract fully vests for the season, but he would just be replaced by a similar minimum salary player, making his salary figure somewhat irrelevant.
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The luxury tax for next season is expected to be $77,000,000, but it could vary slightly depending on what is announced by the league in a few days. But for the purposes of this thread, lets use that figure.
That means: 77,000,000-67090920 =$ 9,909,080 of money to potentially spend if you want to stay uinder the luxury tax, which Indiana obviously does.
However, this total must account for Indiana needing to add a MINIMUM of 3 players and their contracts, and MOST LIKELY 4 players, as Indiana will want to carry 14 players into next year in order to have added flexibility in 2 for 1 type trades during the season if needed.
Also, because of added flexibility needed in future moves to sign street free agents during the season if necessary, or if we need to take back extra salary in a trade during the season, Indiana would likely want to end up with approximately $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 UNDER the luxury tax.
That means Indiana's likely 2014-2015 payroll will need to be at or around $75,000,000, not the higher figure.
That obviously means that Indiana has approximately $8,000,000 of true roster salary availability as of today.
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By being over the salary cap but being under the tax, Indiana is entitled to use the non tax payer mid level exception, which this summer is $5,305,000. Indiana could use this to sign 2 different players and split that amount, or will use it all on one player if they so choose.....but they will only have the available room to do this for any consequential player if Lance Stephenson would happen to leave us, which I also find unlikely, though not impossible. Indiana has "Bird rights" for Stephenson, which means than can pay more than the mid level exception to retain their own player. They also have other exceptions to add players above the minimum salary but at a very low salary level, and a bit of maneuverability in the Granger trade exception, which is unlikely to help us much but you never know.
My best guess is that Lance Stephenson returns. But for what kind of contract?
Best guess from here is that he signs for 4 years, $31,848,480, with an opt out clause for after 2 years. Broken down like this:
2014/2015: $7,500,000
2015/2016: $7,800,000 --------Lance can opt out if he wants after this season.
2016/2017: $8,112,000
2017/2018: $8,436,480
Time will tell if I have guessed those numbers correctly. That contract is based on slightly less than maximum raises which helps Indiana, but in exchange for that added savings for Indiana Lance gets an "opt out" clause in 2 years, timed for the year that both West and Hibbert have their deals expire.
Sound right to you guys?
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If all of this is true, that would give Indiana approximately up to $2,500,000 if Indiana gets reckless and spends all the way to the absolute limit, which is unlikely.
Indiana has 11 players in this scenario at this point. I think we can assume that one of these players will be someone at the league minimum (Shayne Wittington or another young project), giving us around 1.6 million to work with and 12 players under contract.
Indiana has expressed a desire to re-sign Lavoy Allen, and Indiana typically signs guys they show interest in who are already here. Allen I would guess would sign for 2 years with the second year non guaranteed or only partially guaranteed....something like $1,100,000 for 2014/2015, being just above the league minimum and therefore being the best offer he has.
We would then, essentially, be capped out at 13 players, with an estimated salary of $ 76,500,000 or so if all of that comes true. The problem is, we desperately need a back up wing who can help us win still, preferably a very nice piece who could really help us. But we would have no money to get it!
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Therefore, we need to seek out a trade that makes sense for us, and our trade partner.
I think the obvious trade piece in this scenario would be Ian Mahinmi, and the obvious trade partner sometime in mid July would be the Los Angeles Clippers, who desperately need front court help and have a role for Mahinmi ready made.
An Indiana trade with Los Angeles Clippers would have to be made after they are done chasing other big name fish, but it is easily to see for me an Ian Mahimni for Matt Barnes trade helping both teams. I'd definitely be willing to take Reggie Bullock or CJ Wilcox from them as well if they wanted to rid themselves of either low paid young player, but it wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.
Maybe it isn't Barnes, but if Lavoy Allen resigns here as I now expect, a Mahimni for a wing trade makes too much sense not to happen.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This exact trade would save us a slight bit in 2014-2015 salary as well, maybe enough to sign someone for a very low amount but a bit over the league minimum. Perhaps a deal like that could bring over a ring chasing 2 guard, or perhaps an overseas player looking for his opportunity, or perhaps someone we've already had once before.....either way, the ideal position for this player would be as a 2 guard:
Examples: Malcolm Delaney, Keith Langford, Orlando Johnson, or players such as that.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, that is how I see our July playing out. But you may be asking yourself questions like : "Why can't our ownership just go over the luxury tax and go all out to win one time?.....we deserve that as fans!
But the luxury tax level of $77,000,000 essentially acts as a hard cap for Indiana, and here is why:
1. Indiana is a low revenue team that the league subsidizes as part of its revenue sharing program. Going over the luxury tax would take that away from our ownership group, and it is serious money: rumored to be $15,000,000 this year alone! So going over the luxury tax not only means that Indiana has to PAY a small tax on the overage, it means it would cost itself $15,000,000 bucks in revenue! No way will Indiana risk that.
2. Indiana's sweetheart deal with the city is already criticized enough, and becoming a tax payer would be a slap in the face of the city leaders who made that deal happen for the Simon family.
Indiana, between the city and the NBA revenue sharing program, was subsidized around $27,000,000 last year, before the lights came on or one basket was made.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please keep all of this information in mind before we make a bunch of threads complaining that we don't sign Eric Bledsoe, Chandler Parsons, Kyle Lowry, or other high priced players.
For Indiana, this summer is all about getting individually better, improving our togetherness, toughness, and chemistry, and tweaking our bench to maximize our potential. Its about being true to ourselves, looking within ourselves, and finding the guts and mojo that a championship team needs. Indiana will need to use the fuel of their past implosions and near misses to get them over the hump, because big additions to the roster are not going to happen this summer. Indiana's best chance to get better will come from within, not from outside. Making our players better.....that will be talked about in an upcoming piece on here by me, so stay tuned.
It also means some serious soul searching from our coaching staff on how to make this team better offensively with essentially the same players.....that will be a Tbird topic for another upcoming day as well.
This time until next time........
Tbird
Anyone with CBA questions can always refer to this website, which is what everyone uses for this purpose:
http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm
First, our salaries for 2014-2015 as of June 30, 2014:
1. Roy Hibbert $14,898,938
2. Paul George $ 16,702,350
3. David West $12,000,000
4. George Hill $ 8,000,000
5. Ian Mahimni $ 4,000,000
6. Chris Copeland $3,135,000
7. C.J. Watson $2,077,000
8. Solomon Hill $1,307,840
We are also on the hook for Luis Scola, who has a partial guarantee of $1,940,946.
If, as I now expect, we keep Scola for this year, add $2,927,533 to that number. If Indiana can get a better replacement for Scola for that amount or less, I am all for it, but I find that an unlikely outcome. Plus, having Scola's expiring contract is potentially a handy trade tool for a team with little assets to trade during next season.
9. Luis Scola would then be in total: $4,868,499
10. Donald Sloan is not guaranteed, but if we also keep him as expected, he is on the hook for $948,163.
This I view is the likeliest scenario going into next season. The total if that comes true: $67,090,920 for 10 players total under contract.
The soft NBA salary cap for 2014-2015 is $63,200,000, which means we are operating just over that....which is a much better position to be in from a cap perspective......which along with Bird's stated goal of keeping continuity is the reason why I believe Scola returns. Sloan could go away by August 15, which is when his contract fully vests for the season, but he would just be replaced by a similar minimum salary player, making his salary figure somewhat irrelevant.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The luxury tax for next season is expected to be $77,000,000, but it could vary slightly depending on what is announced by the league in a few days. But for the purposes of this thread, lets use that figure.
That means: 77,000,000-67090920 =$ 9,909,080 of money to potentially spend if you want to stay uinder the luxury tax, which Indiana obviously does.
However, this total must account for Indiana needing to add a MINIMUM of 3 players and their contracts, and MOST LIKELY 4 players, as Indiana will want to carry 14 players into next year in order to have added flexibility in 2 for 1 type trades during the season if needed.
Also, because of added flexibility needed in future moves to sign street free agents during the season if necessary, or if we need to take back extra salary in a trade during the season, Indiana would likely want to end up with approximately $1,000,000 to $2,000,000 UNDER the luxury tax.
That means Indiana's likely 2014-2015 payroll will need to be at or around $75,000,000, not the higher figure.
That obviously means that Indiana has approximately $8,000,000 of true roster salary availability as of today.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
By being over the salary cap but being under the tax, Indiana is entitled to use the non tax payer mid level exception, which this summer is $5,305,000. Indiana could use this to sign 2 different players and split that amount, or will use it all on one player if they so choose.....but they will only have the available room to do this for any consequential player if Lance Stephenson would happen to leave us, which I also find unlikely, though not impossible. Indiana has "Bird rights" for Stephenson, which means than can pay more than the mid level exception to retain their own player. They also have other exceptions to add players above the minimum salary but at a very low salary level, and a bit of maneuverability in the Granger trade exception, which is unlikely to help us much but you never know.
My best guess is that Lance Stephenson returns. But for what kind of contract?
Best guess from here is that he signs for 4 years, $31,848,480, with an opt out clause for after 2 years. Broken down like this:
2014/2015: $7,500,000
2015/2016: $7,800,000 --------Lance can opt out if he wants after this season.
2016/2017: $8,112,000
2017/2018: $8,436,480
Time will tell if I have guessed those numbers correctly. That contract is based on slightly less than maximum raises which helps Indiana, but in exchange for that added savings for Indiana Lance gets an "opt out" clause in 2 years, timed for the year that both West and Hibbert have their deals expire.
Sound right to you guys?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
If all of this is true, that would give Indiana approximately up to $2,500,000 if Indiana gets reckless and spends all the way to the absolute limit, which is unlikely.
Indiana has 11 players in this scenario at this point. I think we can assume that one of these players will be someone at the league minimum (Shayne Wittington or another young project), giving us around 1.6 million to work with and 12 players under contract.
Indiana has expressed a desire to re-sign Lavoy Allen, and Indiana typically signs guys they show interest in who are already here. Allen I would guess would sign for 2 years with the second year non guaranteed or only partially guaranteed....something like $1,100,000 for 2014/2015, being just above the league minimum and therefore being the best offer he has.
We would then, essentially, be capped out at 13 players, with an estimated salary of $ 76,500,000 or so if all of that comes true. The problem is, we desperately need a back up wing who can help us win still, preferably a very nice piece who could really help us. But we would have no money to get it!
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Therefore, we need to seek out a trade that makes sense for us, and our trade partner.
I think the obvious trade piece in this scenario would be Ian Mahinmi, and the obvious trade partner sometime in mid July would be the Los Angeles Clippers, who desperately need front court help and have a role for Mahinmi ready made.
An Indiana trade with Los Angeles Clippers would have to be made after they are done chasing other big name fish, but it is easily to see for me an Ian Mahimni for Matt Barnes trade helping both teams. I'd definitely be willing to take Reggie Bullock or CJ Wilcox from them as well if they wanted to rid themselves of either low paid young player, but it wouldn't be a deal breaker for me.
Maybe it isn't Barnes, but if Lavoy Allen resigns here as I now expect, a Mahimni for a wing trade makes too much sense not to happen.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This exact trade would save us a slight bit in 2014-2015 salary as well, maybe enough to sign someone for a very low amount but a bit over the league minimum. Perhaps a deal like that could bring over a ring chasing 2 guard, or perhaps an overseas player looking for his opportunity, or perhaps someone we've already had once before.....either way, the ideal position for this player would be as a 2 guard:
Examples: Malcolm Delaney, Keith Langford, Orlando Johnson, or players such as that.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
So, that is how I see our July playing out. But you may be asking yourself questions like : "Why can't our ownership just go over the luxury tax and go all out to win one time?.....we deserve that as fans!
But the luxury tax level of $77,000,000 essentially acts as a hard cap for Indiana, and here is why:
1. Indiana is a low revenue team that the league subsidizes as part of its revenue sharing program. Going over the luxury tax would take that away from our ownership group, and it is serious money: rumored to be $15,000,000 this year alone! So going over the luxury tax not only means that Indiana has to PAY a small tax on the overage, it means it would cost itself $15,000,000 bucks in revenue! No way will Indiana risk that.
2. Indiana's sweetheart deal with the city is already criticized enough, and becoming a tax payer would be a slap in the face of the city leaders who made that deal happen for the Simon family.
Indiana, between the city and the NBA revenue sharing program, was subsidized around $27,000,000 last year, before the lights came on or one basket was made.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Please keep all of this information in mind before we make a bunch of threads complaining that we don't sign Eric Bledsoe, Chandler Parsons, Kyle Lowry, or other high priced players.
For Indiana, this summer is all about getting individually better, improving our togetherness, toughness, and chemistry, and tweaking our bench to maximize our potential. Its about being true to ourselves, looking within ourselves, and finding the guts and mojo that a championship team needs. Indiana will need to use the fuel of their past implosions and near misses to get them over the hump, because big additions to the roster are not going to happen this summer. Indiana's best chance to get better will come from within, not from outside. Making our players better.....that will be talked about in an upcoming piece on here by me, so stay tuned.
It also means some serious soul searching from our coaching staff on how to make this team better offensively with essentially the same players.....that will be a Tbird topic for another upcoming day as well.
This time until next time........
Tbird
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