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.500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

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  • #76
    Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

    I was surprised that without Granger, Dunleavy, and Ford we were even able to score 119 points. Almost sneaked one out. JOB i thought did a nice job up until the final minute. That inbounds play with the score tied with 30 seconds on the clock was horrendous. I would asume that if it doesn't work the first time then you wouldn't run it a second time. I guess i was wrong. Foster should not have been inbounding that ball. As soon as the Ref blew his whistle and handed Jeff the ball i could tell it was gonna be a turnover. He looked scared and completely indecisive. The most frustrating part is the exact same thing happened no more than 60 seconds earlier and we had to call a timeout. We still had a 20 second timeout left. Jeff shoulda just called yet another timeout and JOB should have came up with a different play. .......

    As it stands we are:

    1-0 against Group A (6-4)
    5-7 against Group B (12-10)
    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

    Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis, Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

    1-0 against Group A (6-4)

    Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

    5-7 against Group B (12-10)

    Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

    3-2 against Group C (8-1)

    Comment


    • #77
      Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

      I'm going to break in here to offer kudos to Phree Refill for this thread. I didn't read it when it originally came up because I thought it would be another wild-eyed crazily optimistic "we shall prevail because The Gods are With us even though we suck" post. I was very wrong - some of it was mildly optimistic but it's a nice analysis and I've enjoyed reading through it.

      Well done.
      The poster formerly known as Rimfire

      Comment


      • #78
        Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

        Originally posted by Phree Refill View Post
        I was surprised that without Granger, Dunleavy, and Ford we were even able to score 119 points. Almost sneaked one out. JOB i thought did a nice job up until the final minute. That inbounds play with the score tied with 30 seconds on the clock was horrendous. I would asume that if it doesn't work the first time then you wouldn't run it a second time. I guess i was wrong. Foster should not have been inbounding that ball. As soon as the Ref blew his whistle and handed Jeff the ball i could tell it was gonna be a turnover. He looked scared and completely indecisive. The most frustrating part is the exact same thing happened no more than 60 seconds earlier and we had to call a timeout. We still had a 20 second timeout left. Jeff shoulda just called yet another timeout and JOB should have came up with a different play. .......
        You should read the Star article this morning. O'Brien bears some responsibility for the play not being understood clearly, but he basically notes that Jack didn't make the right cut, and that Foster should have called a time out...or basically what you just said.

        Originally posted by DisplacedKnick View Post
        I'm going to break in here to offer kudos to Phree Refill for this thread. I didn't read it when it originally came up because I thought it would be another wild-eyed crazily optimistic "we shall prevail because The Gods are With us even though we suck" post. I was very wrong - some of it was mildly optimistic but it's a nice analysis and I've enjoyed reading through it.

        Well done.
        And this is why this analysis is not an Epic Fail.

        Comment


        • #79
          Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

          For me, it's been interesting to see if Phree's predictions would even come close, let alone if he'd be dead on. So far, it would seem he's been fairly on the mark. And while for him this may have the earmarks of a triumph, it's also very disappointing that my team continues to blow opportunities to move ahead.

          I think the loss-count is now down to 6 games before the Pacers lose any chance of staying at or above .500. If this team does makes it to the post-season, as with the last two seasons, they won't make it on their own. They'll need lots of help from other teams. Good luck with that....

          Lottery, here they come...

          Comment


          • #80
            Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

            Last I looked Detroit was 2-8 in their last ten games. They might miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not. I believe the Bucks & New York are not going to tank. New Jersey plays a difficult schedule. The Pacers & Charlotte just do not have the horses to make a push. I believe Toronto & Chicago will tank.

            Comment


            • #81
              Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

              Originally posted by Jonathan View Post
              It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not.
              Jonathan makes a really good point. If you look deep into the schedule the reality is, if we are still competitive and in the playoff hunt towards the end of the year, there is a chance we can pick up some games we shouldn't have won originally. For example, we play Cleveland the second to last game of the year. I'm pretty sure their playoff seeding will be determined already by then so they will most likely be resting their starters.

              A deeper look reveals that our last five games are against toronto, atlanta, detroit, cleveland, and milwuakee in that order. I have a feeling only milwaukee will actually have anything to play for at that point in the schedule (if they need that last game to hold on to the 8th seed). Toronto could very likely be tanking by then and the other three quite possibly could already have their playoff seed set in stone with no chance to improve or fall in the standings. So we very well could finish the season on a winning streak.... IF by then we haven't played our way out of the playoff picture. Hell there is a pretty good chance that by then we will be "tanking". Although if you look at the schedule from last year we are 1 game better right now than we were at this point then.

              Comment


              • #82
                Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                Originally posted by Jonathan View Post
                Last I looked Detroit was 2-8 in their last ten games. They might miss the playoffs. It will be interesting to see which teams tank and which teams do not. I believe the Bucks & New York are not going to tank. New Jersey plays a difficult schedule. The Pacers & Charlotte just do not have the horses to make a push. I believe Toronto & Chicago will tank.
                Agree that the Bucks won't tank because Skiles won't let them.

                Also agree on the NY and Toronto assessment.

                Don't think Chicago's trades will improve their FC enough?

                Detroit is anybody's guess. Current results indicate AI's not a team player. That's too bad as he has too much talent to waste it like this. He should be the 6th man and have Rip start.

                Comment


                • #83
                  Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                  The Memphis win gets us off to a good start on Group A in this stretch of the schedule where we 6 of 7 games are against Group A opponents. The only non Group A opponent is Portland.

                  It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that. However if the Pacers somehow pulled out a win Friday with our top 2 scorers out, I would think that it would be a huge confidence booster for our guys and may be just what they need to finish the season out on a hot streak.

                  Predicting a loss for Friday, we will have just 5 more games that we can lose the rest of the season in order to finish .500

                  As it stands we are:

                  2-0 against Group A (6-4)
                  5-7 against Group B (12-10)
                  3-2 against Group C (8-1)

                  *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

                  Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston, Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

                  2-0 against Group A (6-4)

                  Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

                  5-7 against Group B (12-10)

                  Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

                  3-2 against Group C (8-1)

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                    Originally posted by Phree Refill
                    It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that.
                    Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.
                    And I won't be here to see the day
                    It all dries up and blows away
                    I'd hang around just to see
                    But they never had much use for me
                    In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                      Originally posted by Putnam View Post
                      Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.
                      But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                        Originally posted by Burtrem Redneck View Post
                        But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.
                        This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                          Originally posted by Phree Refill View Post
                          This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.
                          I disagree. I think a team gets to a point - particularly playing against adversity - where a single loss doesn't change how they feel about themselves because they really have no other choice.

                          The inconsistency on the team level isn't about confidence, it is about the small things that they do well one night and don't do well another night. That is the mark of wither a young team or a team that just isn't capable of going to the next level. As made up right now considering injuries and illnesses, this team is not able to go to the next level.
                          BillS

                          A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
                          Or throw in a first-round pick and flip it for a max-level point guard...

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                            Originally posted by Phree Refill View Post
                            It is unfortunate that we play Boston on their home floor next game because it appeared we were finally starting to play together and show great poise and excellent energy. A set back in Boston Friday may stunt that.
                            Originally posted by Putnam View Post
                            Why would playing Boston next affect the players' ability to play together, show great poise and excellent energy? If a team has those qualities, an opponent cannot take them away.
                            Originally posted by Burtrem Redneck View Post
                            But our team has not shown that poise and energy, for 2+ years now. They are weak minded and any loss might turn the doom switch on. However if they can build upon the last few wins and get a bit of a streak going that confidence might become a bit more solid for the last few games to end the season.
                            Originally posted by Phree Refill View Post
                            This is essentially what I was getting at. A loss may start the "Brandon Rush Effect" with the team.
                            The above dialog is the perfect sagway to comments Travis Deiner made in his latest blog entry (dated 02/25/09).

                            "What helps get you through the tough times is the chemistry of the team and ours is really good. For the first time in my four years in the NBA, I think everybody likes each other and everybody likes coming to work each day and being around one another. Win or lose, we handle ourselves in a professional manner.

                            Obviously, losing some games the way we've lost them this year, people can get frustrated and egos can start to come into play and guys can get angry but not on this team. Everyone's kept a level head whether we win or lose. It's been a good team to be around, a good staff to be around and I think eventually that's going to pay off for us.

                            It's frustrating when you put a lot of work into something and you don't see the results. If we were getting beat by 30 every game and not competing, we'd know we were losing because we weren't competing. But we're competing, we're playing hard, we work hard in practice, so it's frustrating that we're not winning more games. On the flip side, we know we're very close to turning it around."

                            I thought his words were very insightful and rather refreshing. You hear small bits and pieces of players saying that the atmosphere in the locker room has been good throughout the season, win or lose, but until Travis' blog entry you don't really believe it's true especially with all the losses the way this team has loss games. It's encouraging to read his commentary. This tells me that no matter what this group of players won't give up. They'll keep trying to learn from their mistakes and get better and make that all important playoff push. I don't think we, as fans, can ask for anything more than that. My "team spirit" has been renewed.
                            Last edited by NuffSaid; 02-26-2009, 11:32 AM.

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                              It was a valliant effort last night but we just couldn't quite pull it out. I know it is very inaccurate to form the following correlation but part of me can't help but think this way. Had the Celtics not signed marbury we could have won. We lost by five and marbury had 8. Take him away and we win by 3. Hopefully we can keep the strong play on the home floor going on sunday.

                              As it stands we are:

                              2-1 against Group A (6-4)
                              5-7 against Group B (12-10)
                              3-2 against Group C (8-1)

                              *Note record in parenthesis is what I projected us to be against that group.

                              Group A (teams Pacers face 1 time the rest of the season): Houston(W), Memphis(W), Boston(L), Denver, Sacramento, Clippers, Utah, Dallas, Oklahoma City, and Detroit

                              2-1 against Group A (6-4)

                              Group B (teams Pacers face 2 times the rest of the season): San Antonio(1L), Orlando(1L,1W), Miami(1W), New York(2L), Minnesota(1L,1W), Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia (1L,1W), Washington (1L), Cleveland(1W), and Atlanta

                              5-7 against Group B (12-10)

                              Group C (teams Pacers face 3 times the rest of the season): Chicago (1W), Charlotte(1W,1L), and Milwaukee(1W,1L)

                              3-2 against Group C (8-1)

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Re: .500 finish is very attainable. Schedule analysis inside.

                                The Pacers lost. But I think you could argue that they played together, showed great poise and excellent energy. Boston didn't take that away from them.
                                And I won't be here to see the day
                                It all dries up and blows away
                                I'd hang around just to see
                                But they never had much use for me
                                In Levelland. (James McMurtry)

                                Comment

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