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Race for a top ten pick heating up

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  • #16
    Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

    Originally posted by Moses View Post
    I was under the impression that as long as we finished in the top 10 we were guaranteed our lottery pick. If we finish with the 11th worst record and luck into the #6 pick or something, I thought we could not keep it.
    It's the opposite.

    Comment


    • #17
      Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

      The odds are so much against us getting a top 3 pick, that it should not be part of the conversation. It will come down to whether a couple dogs can pass us....and that Orlando can remain ahead of us. Nothing else really matters. We will get the 9th or 10th pick or nothing at all. We can only hope that some of these supposedly bad teams are hungry to take a bite out of the Pacers.

      A team like Philly or NY is going to be extremely motivated to make the playoffs. The difference here is that perhaps no other team is in our situation who might benefit from losing. If Philly gets the #12 position, they still get their pick...where we would not. That means Philly should be even more motivated. They lose very little come draft day by winning an extra couple games. We, however, could come away with nothing at all....which is precisely where we are right now.

      Comment


      • #18
        Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

        The thing that always bothers me about these conversations is when someone implies that the Pacers WANT to lose, or are at least tempted to lose, because the team might then drop into a good lottery situation.

        (It's not so bad in this thread, but in others I've seen many people seem to honestly think in terms of teams wanting to lose or trying to lose).

        What gets lost in these conversations is the actual players who are playing these games. Does anyone really think that any of the Pacers players care one way or another about our draft pick next year? How hard they're trying to win right now (or not trying to win) is surely dependent on personal or team motivation. Jamaal Tinsley doesn't care right now if we're getting a #9 draft pick next year. Neither does Rick Carlisle or any of the other coaches or players. They've got too much drama/frustration going on right now to be concerned with that.

        The only people who really have a stake in this right now are DW/LB and long-term fans. And they don't play the games, the players do.

        Sorry about the rant, this might not really be the thread for this right now, but let's at least assume that the team is still attempting to win games, or at worst is giving up or not trying as hard, rather than trying to lose on purpose. I just don't buy it.

        Thank you, that is all.

        Comment


        • #19
          Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

          From now on, I'm rooting for every non-playoff (and non-Memphis) team in the West.

          Comment


          • #20
            Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

            Originally posted by Mal View Post
            Incorrect. If we ended up with the 11th worst record and lucked into the top-3, we keep the pick. It's the order of the draft post-lottery that determines if we get the pick or if Atlanta gets the pick.

            Theoretically, we could have the 14th-worst record, luck into the top-3, and get to keep it. Conversely, we could have the 10th worst record, but someone who is 11-14 lucks into the top-3, bumping everyone down a notch. We'd end up with the 11th, which would then go to Atlanta.
            We've been discussing it for a month now, I run updates to the draft race magic numbers basically daily, yet up pops another redundent thread which is then filled with a bunch of misinformation and confusion. I don't get why Mal or Y2J have to jump in and straighten this stuff out still.


            Protection for the Pacers pick.
            This year 1-10
            Next year 1-8
            3rd year 1-5
            4th year, no protection (ie, if they haven't taken a first round pick from the Pacers yet then the Hawks get this pick no matter what).

            Hawks/Phx have the Joe Johnson pick, but it's 1-3 protected which is why Atlanta is dropping games in a hurry.


            The 14 teams not in the playoffs all get some ping pong balls. The worse you do the more balls you get. The TOP THREE picks are then chosen using this ping pong lottery. Then everyone else slots in as they finished.

            Ties are broken with a coin flip, so forget head to head records and stuff like that.

            Because you draw for the top 3 spots it means that the only way a team can do better than it's finish is by hitting the lottery for one of those 3 spots. The side effect of this is that if a team behind you jumps into the top 3 it pushes you down a pick.

            Thus the Pacers could finish 8th and still end up picking 11th, it would look something like this - 9, 12, 14, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, Pacers, 10, 11, 13. The point? Nothing is certain.

            The mathematical odds of being pushed down a spot are about the same as for them to jump into a top 3 spot themselves. The chance of 10 becoming 1-3 is about the same as 10 becoming 11.

            If the pick is outside 10th, Atlanta takes it. This is POST-LOTTERY, meaning where the pick is determines if they get it, not where the Pacers actually finish. The Pacers could hit 14th and be about to hand it over to ATL and then hit the lottery for 2nd and end up keeping it.

            NY is going to be extremely motivated to make the playoffs
            Then explain their record post-Isiah contract extension. They are dropping as fast as Indy. That has been the main point of my draft race thread, I'm showing how the magic numbers keep dropping despite what the Pacers do. True the Pacers could fall behind, but there are just so many other teams floundering and with equal motivation to miss the playoffs rather than be first round fodder.

            Heck, I'd say the Wiz wouldn't mind bailing out at this point and getting a better pick. What's the point of going to Toronto in round 1 without Butler and Arenas.

            And regardless of intentions, these bad teams got these records not by tanking but by sucking. Why would anyone expect them to turn it around? They aren't tanking, they just have remained as poor as they've been all season. The Pacers are the exception, but clearly they made a major trade and that marks a drastic change in their performance.




            BTW, just in case anyone cares, MEMPHIS is very close to locking up the worst record. I think their magic number is down to 2 (combo their loss or Boston win). They are "running away with it".

            Still only gets them a 25% chance at the #1 pick. Think about that, 75% shot that after this terrible year the Griz still won't get the top pick from it.

            Also Atlanta, while they are pushing for a bottom 3 record they stand a good chance of getting lottery'd back out of the top 3 picks and having to hand it to Phoenix. Phoenix has a good shot to pick 4-5. Now you know why the owner was ticked off at the other ownership group.

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            • #21
              Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

              Originally posted by rabidpacersfan View Post
              The thing that always bothers me about these conversations is when someone implies that the Pacers WANT to lose, or are at least tempted to lose, because the team might then drop into a good lottery situation.

              (It's not so bad in this thread, but in others I've seen many people seem to honestly think in terms of teams wanting to lose or trying to lose).

              What gets lost in these conversations is the actual players who are playing these games. Does anyone really think that any of the Pacers players care one way or another about our draft pick next year? How hard they're trying to win right now (or not trying to win) is surely dependent on personal or team motivation. Jamaal Tinsley doesn't care right now if we're getting a #9 draft pick next year. Neither does Rick Carlisle or any of the other coaches or players. They've got too much drama/frustration going on right now to be concerned with that.

              The only people who really have a stake in this right now are DW/LB and long-term fans. And they don't play the games, the players do.

              Sorry about the rant, this might not really be the thread for this right now, but let's at least assume that the team is still attempting to win games, or at worst is giving up or not trying as hard, rather than trying to lose on purpose. I just don't buy it.

              Thank you, that is all.
              Amen. As I just said (and have in previous posts) even if you try really, really hard you aren't going to win much if you are a bad team. These teams were losers before they got anywhere near "tank time". Why in the world would Boston, Atlanta or even New York suddenly be so good that all they had to do to win was try?

              I agree that teams on losing streaks get down, depressed, frustrated, and that compounds the problem. But even if those things weren't part of it, you still expect the lesser team to lose most of the time, or a 500 team to win and lose about the same.


              None of these players even know if they'll be around next year to enjoy the pick. Or in fact they might be traded to another team that might have a shot at picking before the Pacers. So why would they want to tank when they don't even know if they'll be around to enjoy it or if it might actually hurt their situation.

              Heck, some players wouldn't want to tank just because they don't want to see their status made obsolete by a rookie.

              Comment


              • #22
                Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                Originally posted by Mal View Post
                Incorrect. If we ended up with the 11th worst record and lucked into the top-3, we keep the pick. It's the order of the draft post-lottery that determines if we get the pick or if Atlanta gets the pick.

                Theoretically, we could have the 14th-worst record, luck into the top-3, and get to keep it. Conversely, we could have the 10th worst record, but someone who is 11-14 lucks into the top-3, bumping everyone down a notch. We'd end up with the 11th, which would then go to Atlanta.
                Thanks for straightening this out...I was just confused by a thread UB ran earlier which had a quote from the Rick Carlisle Show indicating what I was saying. I guess I read it wrong.

                EDIT: Ah...now I see...Mark Boyle explained it...

                "
                Originally posted by mboyle1313
                I checked this out today, and assuming my understanding is correct, here's the deal:

                Pacers keep pick if:

                A) They end up out of the playoffs (in the lottery) and the fortuitous bounce of the ping pong balls gives them one of the top ten picks (regardless of whether the record is one of the ten worst).

                They give up the pick if:

                A) They make the playoffs, or

                B) They end up in the lottery but fail to get a top ten pick, or

                C) They end up with one of the ten worst records, but the bouncing of the ping pong balls shoves them down to the 11th pick or lower.


                MJB
                Sorry for being slow there...

                Comment


                • #23
                  Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                  Charlotte will not be a gimme. They are 8-5 over the last 13. They have gone 6-2 at home with wins over Cleveland and Washington...and have a 3 game home winning streak. Gerald Wallace has been playing at an allstar level. Okafer is back after missing a month of play. Matt Carroll will blow up if he's guarded by MDJ. This will likely be the Jamaal Tinsley show (yippee, I love that style of play...NOT!) b/c he's guarded by the smaller Felton.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                    Tinsley probably won't play and if he does it will be one-handed because he injured his elbow during the Spurs game

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                      Originally posted by BlueNGold View Post
                      Charlotte will not be a gimme. They are 8-5 over the last 13. They have gone 6-2 at home with wins over Cleveland and Washington...and have a 3 game home winning streak. Gerald Wallace has been playing at an allstar level. Okafer is back after missing a month of play. Matt Carroll will blow up if he's guarded by MDJ. This will likely be the Jamaal Tinsley show (yippee, I love that style of play...NOT!) b/c he's guarded by the smaller Felton.
                      And don't forget about Walter Hermann, that guy has been on a tear as well! Of course Morrison is capable of heating up as well!


                      As for Tinsley, he might play, he might not. He gave it ago against Detriot, and played well early, but I think the elbow got to him late, so we'll see if it got any better

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                        If he injured it during the Spurs game why did he play against the Pistons?

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                          Just to weigh in on the players dogging it specifically. The players probably would prefer no pick. It provides a little more job security. It's not like Tinsley/Armstrong/McLeod/Greene are pulling for the Pacers to draft a point guard in the lottery or Foster/Murphy/Baston/Harrison/Diogu or pulling for the team to get a high draft pick in a big man heavy draft. It makes no sense for a player to intentionally play bad so the team can get his replacement. It makes no sense for a player to dog it because his job is on the line.

                          There are a number of guys who are in a position to play their way on or off this team since the All-Star break, both starters and reserves. A guy like Tinsley has to know his job is on the line. Not to mention guys who become free agents this offseason. Carlisle's head is likely already on the chopping block. These guys aren't playing for a draft pick, they're playing for their jobs.
                          I'm in these bands
                          The Humans
                          Dr. Goldfoot
                          The Bar Brawlers
                          ME

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                          • #28
                            Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                            Originally posted by Mal View Post
                            If he injured it during the Spurs game why did he play against the Pistons?


                            Because he's a warrior you ninny.
                            Ever notice how friendly folks are at a shootin' range??.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                              Originally posted by Mal View Post
                              If he injured it during the Spurs game why did he play against the Pistons?
                              Are you questioning the injury or are you just wondering why he played with an injured elbow.

                              Rick made a comment that Tinsley couldn't dribble with his right hand. here is the quote. Even Rick questioned whether JT should have been out there. But it was very obvious watching the game in person, that is why the Pistons stole the ball from Tinsley twice as he was dribbling it - something that never happens

                              http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...plate=printart

                              No shots for Tinsley

                              An injured right elbow forced Jamaal Tinsley to be strictly a pass-first point guard for the Pacers.

                              Tinsley had 10 assists, including eight in the first quarter, while not attempting a field goal or scoring a point in 25 minutes.

                              Tinsley, who also had four turnovers, was questionable Tuesday after injuring his elbow in the final seconds of Sunday's game against San Antonio. He had 20 points against the Spurs.

                              "He was having trouble dribbling right handed and he was unable to shoot the ball," Carlisle said. "That's the reason he didn't take any shots. It may have been a mistake having him out there."

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                Re: Race for a top ten pick heating up

                                Originally posted by Dr. Goldfoot View Post
                                Just to weigh in on the players dogging it specifically. The players probably would prefer no pick. It provides a little more job security. It's not like Tinsley/Armstrong/McLeod/Greene are pulling for the Pacers to draft a point guard in the lottery or Foster/Murphy/Baston/Harrison/Diogu or pulling for the team to get a high draft pick in a big man heavy draft. It makes no sense for a player to intentionally play bad so the team can get his replacement. It makes no sense for a player to dog it because his job is on the line.

                                There are a number of guys who are in a position to play their way on or off this team since the All-Star break, both starters and reserves. A guy like Tinsley has to know his job is on the line. Not to mention guys who become free agents this offseason. Carlisle's head is likely already on the chopping block. These guys aren't playing for a draft pick, they're playing for their jobs.
                                None of the players are dogging it. RC certainly has no reason to tank either. You know they are doing everything they can right now to squeeze into the playoffs. That's the way it should be.

                                But that does not change the team's true ability to play well.

                                The truth is, the talent level has dropped over the years...not just with the 8 player trade. We had already dropped significantly after Ron Artest and Reggie Miller left. That's why this team needs an infusion of talent that, in the short term, will only happen through the draft.

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