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Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

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  • #16
    Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

    Max contract for him according to shamsports is $13+ million, which I would easily do.

    Jamal Crawford is stating that if he doesn't get a good extension offer, he's going to request a trade. (He's currently at $10 million, but age is 30.)

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    • #17
      Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

      Originally posted by MyFavMartin View Post
      Max contract for him according to shamsports is $13+ million, which I would easily do.
      I've seen this mentioned in this way before, and it is a very misleading way to present the "max" contract.

      (All of the below is under current CBA rules, and I don't know what the new CBA will do to this.)

      The first year of a max contract is $13.6mm, but the max contract that we could offer another team's free agent would be 5 years with annual raises of 8% of the first year, or about $1.1mm per year. It would look like this:

      $13.6
      $14.7
      $15.8
      $16.9
      $18.0

      Total $78.9mm, with an average salary of $15.8mm.

      It's not uncommon to work out an S&T in these instances (happened with Bosh, Boozer, and James) in order to pay the max for "own" free agent, which would be 6 yrs with 10.5% raises, and would look like this:

      $13.6
      $15.0
      $16.5
      $17.9
      $19.3
      $20.7

      Total $103.0mm with an average salary of $17.2mm

      I'd agree that an average salary of around $13mm is palatable, but Horford is not a max player by any stretch of the imagination, and the kindest way I can describe investing $80-100mm in him would be "incredibly foolish."

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      • #18
        Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

        The problem with all of this is that Crawford won't get a contract because it is imperative that the Hawks sign Horford. Horford wouldn't kill their salary structure, but they would absolutely be relegated to draft picks and minimum contracts if they resign him. They will probably try to facilitate a trade for Crawford, where they get a couple of players in return for his 10m. He is not essential to what they do, but they would need someone capable of scoring off the bench. And Crawford's value is probably as high as it will ever get being an expiring and coming off a 6th man of the year award.

        Horford and Joe Johnson are the two players on the front page of the Hawks website. I could see a lot of other players traded before they consider not signing him. Especially with a restriction.
        "Your course, your path, is not going to be like mine," West says. "Everybody is not called to be a multimillionaire. Everybody's not called to be the president. Whatever your best work is, you do it. Do it well. … You cease your own greatness when you aspire to be someone else."

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        • #19
          Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

          Originally posted by count55 View Post
          I'd agree that an average salary of around $13mm is palatable, but Horford is not a max player by any stretch of the imagination, and the kindest way I can describe investing $80-100mm in him would be "incredibly foolish."
          I totally agree with your evaluation. I think it is very difficult for a team to put a dollar figure on a player that has never played a game in its uniform. It requires an accurate assessment of how that player will mesh with its players and whether the player will continue to be as productive playing with its players and within its offensive/defensive schemes.

          It would be easy to evaluate a Wade, LeBron or Kobe. You just pay them the max and call it a day. But with a player that should not be valued at that level it becomes more difficult. You must come up with what you think he is worth, and more importantly, what you think it will take to actually sign him. And, this process is even more difficult with restricted free agents because of their relatively few years of experience and the ability of the current team to match offers.

          But it does seem like an average of $11M to $13M for Horford would make it worthwhile. But will that get him? If not, what does it take to get Landry? Or West if he opts out?

          This factor is exactly why I support going after a player like Jason Thompson right now that has somewhat proven himself but still has 2 years left on his rookie contract. That way you have reduced your numbers on the roster because it will probably take a 2-for-1, 3-for-2 or even 3-for-1 to get it done, and you throw in draft choices to sweeten the deal. After such a deal, you have not affected your cap space and you can still go after a top-notch PF FA next summer. The good thing is you won't be nearly as desperate... if you get one fine, if not you have at least one young, developing PF in Thompson/Hansbrough while keeping your cap space or possibly diverting focus to acquire a decent SG instead.
          Last edited by beast23; 08-30-2010, 05:27 PM.

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          • #20
            Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

            Wait, Horford doesn't even stretch the floor. How can he be that valuable...

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            • #21
              Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

              If the Hawks offer Horford big money, he'll stay. If they low ball him, he may want to test the market.

              They're a good young playoff team. Atlanta is a nice warm city, so they're the front runner

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              • #22
                Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

                I'd love to have Horford but not at a max contract. This is where I hope the new cba makes a difference when it's in place. Right now max contracts are given out to good players when they should be given to franchise players only. A hard cap would go a long way toward stopping this.
                Why do teams tank? Ask a Spurs fan.

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                • #23
                  Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

                  Originally posted by BlueNGold View Post
                  Wait, Horford doesn't even stretch the floor. How can he be that valuable...
                  He was 100% from 3 point range in the playoffs.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

                    Originally posted by Pacerized View Post
                    I'd love to have Horford but not at a max contract. This is where I hope the new cba makes a difference when it's in place. Right now max contracts are given out to good players when they should be given to franchise players only. A hard cap would go a long way toward stopping this.
                    I think the max raises are a concern more than a hard cap. A hard cap with guaranteed salaries would face resistance from front offices, ownership and the players IMO. With the raises at 10.5%, it drives contracts through the roof in the later years of the deals. No one is complaining that much when thinking about Horford at 13M. Nobody wants to pay him 20+M and for good reason. IMO, the max raises should be set at 5%, with a clause for players with 8+ years with the same team raising it to 7%. Similar to the veto clause for players.

                    This would make that 6 year deal starting out at 13.6M look like this:

                    13.6
                    14.3
                    15.0
                    15.7
                    16.4
                    17.1

                    That is a much more reasonable salary for the league and owners. Players become untradable because of the raises currently beign handed out. It would solve a lot and players would object a lot less to that than reducing salaries more on the front end. It is still a 6 year, $92.10M deal. If the collective bargaining agreement takes a 10% reduction in starting salary, it would establish the new max for a player with Horfords experience at $12.2M.

                    12.2
                    12.8
                    13.4
                    14.0
                    14.6
                    15.2

                    6 years, 72.2M ---> Much better and still an assload of money for the players. That also saves the team roughly 35M on a max deal. You don't think Washington and Orlando would want to be paying their Max guys only 72M?

                    Sorry if my math is off. Count, any revisions to my point?
                    "Your course, your path, is not going to be like mine," West says. "Everybody is not called to be a multimillionaire. Everybody's not called to be the president. Whatever your best work is, you do it. Do it well. … You cease your own greatness when you aspire to be someone else."

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

                      As to the squeeze being put on by Crawford, I think it will force the Hawks to trade Josh Smith. I think they can get more for him. He is a beast and I don't think the hawks want to trade him, but when looking at the roster, Horford wants to play PF. That pushes either Marvin Williams or Josh Smith to the bench. Both are excellent defenders. Both are Forwards that can play either position. Josh Smith gets paid 50% more. Neither is much of a scorer. Williams is a better shooter, with Smith better at slashing. In regards to the future cap situation of that team, they need to alleviate one long term contract to guarantee they keep Horford around. You don't let young bigs walk away, especially with what he brings to the table. They also need scoring just like Crawford provides them. I think we could see both he and Horford extended and Josh Smith traded because they could get more monetary relief and more assets in return.

                      I would rather try to trade them Dunleavy and Solo with a future first rounder for Smith. Solo gives them another center to put with Horford. Plus, they like him in Atlanta. Dunleavy is a low-risk high-reward player for this year. They don't expect much as an expiring, but he could be really productive with Crawford on the second team. They get a solid first round pick, which will be helpful to their cap situation over the next 5 years while still adding talent.

                      Smith fits this team well because of the rebounding and athleticism he brings. I think he would do a lot for Collison with his movement and if Collison does get hung up in the lane a little he will go get a lob pass for a dunk. He crashes the lane. He plays great defense. Blocks shots and is long on defense. Offensively, he is getting better because his jump shot has improved. That is not what you want to rely on him for though. He would be great at the pick and roll both offensively and defensively. I think he is a great compliment to Hibbert on both ends of the floor.
                      "Your course, your path, is not going to be like mine," West says. "Everybody is not called to be a multimillionaire. Everybody's not called to be the president. Whatever your best work is, you do it. Do it well. … You cease your own greatness when you aspire to be someone else."

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

                        The Hawks are not going to sign Crawford to an extension, and they pretty much made that clear when the drafted Crawford.

                        I mean seriously there is only enough room on the team for 1 J. Crawford.

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                        • #27
                          Re: Hawks Don't Want Horford To Test Market

                          Originally posted by pacergod2 View Post
                          As to the squeeze being put on by Crawford, I think it will force the Hawks to trade Josh Smith. I think they can get more for him. He is a beast and I don't think the hawks want to trade him, but when looking at the roster, Horford wants to play PF. That pushes either Marvin Williams or Josh Smith to the bench. Both are excellent defenders. Both are Forwards that can play either position. Josh Smith gets paid 50% more. Neither is much of a scorer. Williams is a better shooter, with Smith better at slashing. In regards to the future cap situation of that team, they need to alleviate one long term contract to guarantee they keep Horford around. You don't let young bigs walk away, especially with what he brings to the table. They also need scoring just like Crawford provides them. I think we could see both he and Horford extended and Josh Smith traded because they could get more monetary relief and more assets in return.

                          I would rather try to trade them Dunleavy and Solo with a future first rounder for Smith. Solo gives them another center to put with Horford. Plus, they like him in Atlanta. Dunleavy is a low-risk high-reward player for this year. They don't expect much as an expiring, but he could be really productive with Crawford on the second team. They get a solid first round pick, which will be helpful to their cap situation over the next 5 years while still adding talent.

                          Smith fits this team well because of the rebounding and athleticism he brings. I think he would do a lot for Collison with his movement and if Collison does get hung up in the lane a little he will go get a lob pass for a dunk. He crashes the lane. He plays great defense. Blocks shots and is long on defense. Offensively, he is getting better because his jump shot has improved. That is not what you want to rely on him for though. He would be great at the pick and roll both offensively and defensively. I think he is a great compliment to Hibbert on both ends of the floor.
                          i agree, also think its more realistic that Smith is a pacer before horford. only after horford is extended would the hawks deal smith.

                          Smith is a bit undersized for the PF position, but he should be okay next to Hibbert when playing against other smaller frontcourts.

                          Hawks would likely want 2 1st rounders for smoove, which is too much imo.

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