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2014 Non-Colts Thread

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  • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

    Denver is just on another level than any other team right now.

    Comment


    • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

      Originally posted by Sollozzo View Post
      Denver is just on another level than any other team right now.
      Aren't they always during the regular season?
      There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

      Comment


      • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

        Through Thursday night’s win over the Chargers, Manning has 67,098 career passing yards. That puts him 4,740 behind Favre’s all-time NFL record of 71,838.

        Manning has averaged 315 yards a game as a Bronco, so if he keeps up that pace, he’ll break Favre’s record in 16 more games. Expect more celebrations of Manning’s greatness at this time next year.

        Manning is also 594 completions away from Favre’s career record, meaning Manning will likely break that record in 2016. At least one of Favre’s records is safe, however: Favre has the all-time record for career interceptions, with 336. Manning, who has 222 interceptions in his career, is the active leader. If Manning keeps throwing interceptions at his Denver pace of about 10 for every 16 games, he’d need to play about 12 more years to top Favre’s interception record. That one seems safe.


        http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com...ardage-record/

        So Manning should break Favre's yardage record in 2015 and completions record in 2016. There's no way in hell he retires before getting those records as long as he continues to get a clean bill of health. He's going to want to put all three major passing records out of reach.

        Comment


        • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

          Originally posted by Kid Minneapolis View Post
          Aren't they always during the regular season?
          Yeah, and they're 1 for 2 on making the Super Bowl since Manning came. The first year they lost because of that ridiculous Hail Flacco.

          One thing is virtually guaranteed at this point: You're going to have to beat Denver in Denver if you want to make the Super Bowl.

          This Denver team is better than last year. The offensive weapons are better than last year because of Sanders and the defense is vastly improved. None of this guarantees anything in a one and done format, but I'd be stunned beyond belief if they don't get the 1 seed.

          Comment


          • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

            Originally posted by Sollozzo View Post
            Yeah, and they're 1 for 2 on making the Super Bowl since Manning came. The first year they lost because of that ridiculous Hail Flacco.

            One thing is virtually guaranteed at this point: You're going to have to beat Denver in Denver if you want to make the Super Bowl.

            This Denver team is better than last year. The offensive weapons are better than last year because of Sanders and the defense is vastly improved. None of this guarantees anything in a one and done format, but I'd be stunned beyond belief if they don't get the 1 seed.
            I love Peyton Manning. I think he's the greatest QB in history.

            But he has one inherent flaw in his game that makes him susceptible to post-season failure ---- he plays at a constant level all year long. And that level is "extremely high". On the flip side of that coin... he doesn't necessarily "up his game" in the playoffs... because he can't. The way he plays in preseason game 1 is the same way he plays in the AFC Championship, and that is "the best that he can".

            There's a problem with that --- Most other people don't operate that way. Most folks only give just enough, most of the time. Peyton Manning is giving 110% all the time. So it creates this illusion of an absolute gulf in performance during the beef of a schedule, like... now. It feels like there's just no way Denver will be stopped. It also shows in the fact that Peyton doesn't necessarily ramp his level of play up in the playoffs, because he's already at 110% going in. And that poses another problem --- it's Peyton Manning. People know. They prepare a little differently, go in a little more focused, and it puts more pressure on Manning and his team to execute. People play Denver as if they are the team to beat to get to the SB... they put more into it.

            This is why the difference between Peyton and Eli is so interesting. Eli falls in that latter category. Eli is on the exact opposite end of the spectrum in terms of "playing up to the moment". Eli goes through huge swaths of time playing very mediocre ball... and it sometimes prevents his team from making the playoffs. Peyton's teams are are basically *guaranteed* to make the playoffs. But if Eli's team makes the playoffs with the right ingredients, all of a sudden you see a huge upswing in his on-field performance. Peyton just keeps on at his usual pace. This is why Eli has more rings. It doesn't mean Eli is the better overall quarterback.... it just means that as the stakes get higher, as the pressure builds, Eli actually catches up to and, imo, for a brief slice on the space-time continuum, exceeds Peyton in on-field results. Eli is an extreme example, because his post-season performance as he gets deeper in goes way, way, way up, far more than most people can match. It's amazing to me that two guys in the *same* family could have such opposite genetic make-up. I could go a lot farther with the differences... Eli is a lot more organic and goes by "feel", as opposed to Peyton's almost machine-like processing of a situation. I think Eli plays in a much more human way... most humans have flaws and make a lot of mistakes, and most humans get very emotional and actually use those emotions to impact their performance. Peyton.... his approach never changes... one bit. It is truly robotic.

            If I had to choose a QB for games 1 through 17 or 18, I'd go Peyton. If I had to choose a QB to represent my franchise from a pure financial and marketing perspective --- it's Peyton. If I had to choose a QB in the SB --- it's Eli. And that is just bizarre to think about. But it's the reality of it, for me. Only in one situation, in one game... would I prefer to have Eli... but I would.

            I love watching Peyton most of the time, although not as the post-season goes on... no other quarterback has had the impact on the league, the position, on offenses, and even on defenses as much as Peyton. But if you had to ask me which quarterback I wanted if I had my choice between Eli and Peyton in a SB.... I would have to consider Eli. And I think most people deep down probably understand and maybe even agree with it. Because Eli ups his game exponentially, whereas Peyton really doesn't up his game at all, he just keeps playing his excellent football. The problem is, he's now facing teams who have elevated their level of play considerably, who are playing extremely tight coverage on receivers, and Peyton can no longer sit back there and pick apart secondaries --- he starts getting harrassed by the pressure up front, at which point his effectiveness starts to go down dramatically. Eli, otoh, starts to find ways to make plays, even when his line is failing and his receivers are covered. There's no way in hell you'll see Peyton do this --- with one minute left in a Super Bowl that he's trailing in:



            The Giants offense absolutely broke down on that play --- except Eli. No semblance of a pocket. Defenders penetrated, draped all over Eli. Receivers covered --- Eli threw into triple coverage. There was almost no hope on this play. For Peyton... that's a tragic sack. Or an INT. For Eli, he was simply beating arguably the greatest team to ever take the field and yet didn't win the SB. By all means, that should've been a NE win... but Eli happened. That wasn't regular season Eli... that was Super Bowl Eli. And this situation isn't unique to this... I know people IRL who operate the same way. I have a few colleagues who drive me crazy with their lackadaisicalness and inconsistency during lulls in the schedule, but when the project pressure builds, they become corporate rock stars and actually carry the project forward.

            If you were to chart Peyton and Eli on a graph of on-field performance from 1 to 100 vs importance of the game as the season goes on.... Peyton's chart is flat all season long... at 99. Eli's chart is all over the place. Most of the time he's at 60-70... but as the post-season goes on, Eli's chart starts to go upwards, and by the SB, he's at 100, and even though Peyton was above him 98% of the season... for that one game, Eli is going top be 1% better.

            And that's not just that position. It goes for all positions. Most folks ramp up their level of play in the post-season... offensive side of the ball and defensive side of the ball, but also the coaching. Everyone steps up their game. And this is why all of a sudden the big gulf between Peyton-led teams and the rest of the league during the regular season closes in the playoffs. And by the time you get to the final 4 teams, you really have 3 other teams that are likely going to pose huge problems for Denver. Because the combined elevation of those teams from their 50% effort in the regular season to the 100% their giving now exceeds Denver's 90% effort in the regular season to their 100% effort in the palyoffs. There just isn't much of an increase when it comes to Denver, because at the root of it all, every team has a limit. Denver just happens to play closer to that limit all year long, and other teams fudge around and don't really push themselves to that limit until later... at least the teams who "hit the playoffs hot" which imo, is really what it's all about. and this is why I sorta hated watching the Pacers "peak" early last year because this is exactly what happened to them. They were playing at a high level from the beginning, and other teams weren't... and it created a false sense. That gulf closed as the season went on and all of a sudden you had a handful of teams who hadn't expended a ton of energy.. hit the playoffs playing better ball, and the Pacers were gassed, they weren't able to increase their level of play, and other teams had.

            This is also why I absolutely love having Luck.... because Luck has Peyton's ability to process things... but Eli's ability to up his game as the stakes increase.
            Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 10-24-2014, 11:49 AM.
            There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

            Comment


            • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

              Every QB is forever going to suffer in comparison to Joe Montana when the issue of elevation of play in the playoffs comes up. Joe went from 92.3 regular season passer rating to 95.6 in playoff games to 127.8 in Super Bowls, which is flat-out ridiculous, to IMPROVE so much. Rule changes have elevated average passer ratings in recent decades.

              Peyton has gone from 97.9 regular season passer rating to 89.2 in playoff games to 81.0 in Super Bowls. That may SOUND alarming, but the level of competition is higher and most GREAT QBs have that degree of playoff drop. Super bowl rating is more random variation, likely due to sample size.

              Marino 86.4 to 77.1 to 66.9 (one game)
              Unitas 78.2 to 68.9 to 34.7 (2 games)
              Kelly 84.4 to 72.3 to 56.9
              Elway 79.9 to 79.7 to 59.3
              Staubach 83.4 to 76.0 to 95.4
              Tarkenton 80.4 to 58.6 to 43.7
              Brady 95.8 to 87.5 to 93.8
              Bradshaw 70.9 to 83.0 to 112.8 (the only other guy to go up and up, but look at where he started!)


              Larger playoff passer rating drop than Manning, at 8.7:
              Tarkenton 21.8, Marino 9.3, Unitas 9.3, Kelly 12.1,

              Smaller: Elway 0.2, Staubach 7.4, Brady 8.3



              So if Manning is a playoff choker, so are, to a GREATER extent, Tarkenton, Marino, Unitas, and Kelly.

              Or maybe he just isn't, and to excel in playoff games is hard!
              The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

              Comment


              • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                No one who has been to the Super Bowl in 3 of his last 7 seasons is a choker. But he just hasn't played good enough in Super Bowls to be the very best ever, IMO. He's had two big chances to join the multi-ring club.

                Comment


                • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                  Originally posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
                  Every QB is forever going to suffer in comparison to Joe Montana when the issue of elevation of play in the playoffs comes up. Joe went from 92.3 regular season passer rating to 95.6 in playoff games to 127.8 in Super Bowls, which is flat-out ridiculous, to IMPROVE so much. Rule changes have elevated average passer ratings in recent decades.

                  Peyton has gone from 97.9 regular season passer rating to 89.2 in playoff games to 81.0 in Super Bowls. That may SOUND alarming, but the level of competition is higher and most GREAT QBs have that degree of playoff drop. Super bowl rating is more random variation, likely due to sample size.

                  Marino 86.4 to 77.1 to 66.9 (one game)
                  Unitas 78.2 to 68.9 to 34.7 (2 games)
                  Kelly 84.4 to 72.3 to 56.9
                  Elway 79.9 to 79.7 to 59.3
                  Staubach 83.4 to 76.0 to 95.4
                  Tarkenton 80.4 to 58.6 to 43.7
                  Brady 95.8 to 87.5 to 93.8
                  Bradshaw 70.9 to 83.0 to 112.8 (the only other guy to go up and up, but look at where he started!)


                  Larger playoff passer rating drop than Manning, at 8.7:
                  Tarkenton 21.8, Marino 9.3, Unitas 9.3, Kelly 12.1,

                  Smaller: Elway 0.2, Staubach 7.4, Brady 8.3



                  So if Manning is a playoff choker, so are, to a GREATER extent, Tarkenton, Marino, Unitas, and Kelly.

                  Or maybe he just isn't, and to excel in playoff games is hard!
                  I'm not really calling it choking. More of... his "dominance" is lessened the later into the post-season he gets, simply by his style of play. And Montana proves my point in that he and Eli both have that ability to make stuff happen in critical situations, even if everything around them is failing. Luck has this ability, also. I don't think Manning shows any change in his level of play from day 1 of training camp to the final minute of the AFC championship --- you watch him and he's playing at the exact same level. Manning doesn't play worse so-to-speak... it's just that everyone else plays better, and therefore he is no longer head-and-shoulders above everyone on the field.
                  Last edited by Kid Minneapolis; 10-24-2014, 12:22 PM.
                  There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

                  Comment


                  • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                    Yeah, I know you weren't labeling him that, KM, but many have (to be honest, including me at times). I didn't expect this much of a resurgence in his career, with a weaker arm, playing outdoors, and considering the principle that father time is undefeated.
                    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!).

                    Comment


                    • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                      Denver has beat Indy, San Diego, Arizona, San Francisco, and Kansas City. They played Seattle tight, and I feel they could have won the game had they not played so overly cautious at the start. Outside of the Jets, Denver's schedule has been absolutely wicked, yet they still look like the best team in the league.

                      Comment


                      • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                        Originally posted by Sollozzo View Post
                        No one who has been to the Super Bowl in 3 of his last 7 seasons is a choker. But he just hasn't played good enough in Super Bowls to be the very best ever, IMO. He's had two big chances to join the multi-ring club.
                        In your opinion does he become the best ever with another SB? I know Montana and his rings is not realistically obtainable at this point (considering how hard it is to get to, and win a SB) but given Manning's regular season numbers and dominance, does 2 SB's put him as the GOAT?

                        What about Brady? Obviously his numbers will never be what Manning's are, but he's still got great numbers. Does another SB make him the GOAT?

                        Comment


                        • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                          Originally posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
                          In your opinion does he become the best ever with another SB? I know Montana and his rings is not realistically obtainable at this point (considering how hard it is to get to, and win a SB) but given Manning's regular season numbers and dominance, does 2 SB's put him as the GOAT?

                          What about Brady? Obviously his numbers will never be what Manning's are, but he's still got great numbers. Does another SB make him the GOAT?
                          I'm too young to have seen Montana play (as are a lot of people who comment on this nowadays). I would put Montana and Brady above Manning now because they performed substantially better in the Super Bowl. If Manning wins a late career Super Bowl with Brady being idle, then yes I would rank him as the GOAT considering he should retire with every major passing record. I know that he still wouldn't have as many Super Bowls as Brady or Montana, but him winning a late career Super Bowl with a new team after career threatening injury would be one of the best sports stories ever.

                          Same with Brady.....if he won a late career Super Bow after winning those three early in his career, then yes he would probably be the GOAT considering his stats are pretty nuts too. If he wins either of those Giants Super Bowls (especially the first to cap the perfect season), he's probably the GOAT right now.

                          Right now, I'd go 1) Montana, 2) Brady, 3) Peyton
                          Last edited by Sollozzo; 10-24-2014, 01:12 PM.

                          Comment


                          • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                            I think Manning is the Greatest Ever anyway. No other QB has the sheer statistics, or has impacted how the league plays on both sides of the ball... as much as he has. That opinion is *including*, what I believe to be, a little lacking in the SB department. If he had another SB or two, I tihnk it just further makes it out of the question as to his historical significance.

                            I guess what I'm saying is... just because he didn't win a few more SBs, doesn't diminish the fact that he's, imo, the best QB of all time. Nobody is perfect. It's like saying Montana wasn't the best of all time because he didn't process things like Manning. You just can't win. There hasn't been a QB with the brain of Manning and the guts of Montana. I think Luck has a shot, though
                            There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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                            • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                              It's just hard for me to say that he is the best ever when he has been so mediocre on the game's biggest stage compared to a Brady or Montana. If you're going to be the very best in the history of such a storied position, I think you need to play better in the championship round.

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                              • Re: 2014 Non-Colts Thread

                                Ya, but I can't say they are the best ever just because they won a few more SBs, especially when they didn't necessarily do anything special to win it, they just had a good team (at least in Brady's case). And they definitely fall short in the regular-season department compared to Manning. That's why I say, week-to-week.... his consistent excellence.... his historical numbers... the way he carries himself and represents the league... and he *does* have 3 SB appearances and has won one... it all just adds up for me. There is no silver bullet winner of this debate, because *every* great QB has *something* that brings them down a bit.
                                There are two types of quarterbacks in the league: Those whom over time, the league figures out ... and those who figure out the league.

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