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All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

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  • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

    Originally posted by Unclebuck View Post
    All of our salary cap flexibility would be gone for summer '15 if we bring back lance. Plus I know the team would have the option in summer of 2016 to not pick up his contract's last season, but I don't see that happening. Plus if lance plays well, he might command more money.


    http://www.indycornrows.com/2014/12/...indiana-pacers
    Our cap flexibility was going to be next to nothing next year anyway. We're at 64.96 million without making any moves, assuming Hibbert and West don't opt out and we give Whittington his qualifying offer, and the salary cap right now is 63.065.

    Comment


    • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

      Originally posted by PacersHomer View Post
      Our cap flexibility was going to be next to nothing next year anyway. We're at 64.96 million without making any moves, assuming Hibbert and West don't opt out and we give Whittington his qualifying offer, and the salary cap right now is 63.065.
      Maybe UB thinks West or Hibbert would opt out Or retire, in West's case.

      Comment


      • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

        One thing to keep in mind, Lance has been one of the worst starters in the NBA this season. I'm cool with him coming back on what would be a much more team friendly contract than the one we offered him originally, especially if it meant getting another asset to take him off Charlotte's hands. However, he has been an absolute disaster this season on the court, and my guess is, if Charlotte is really serious about cutting bait already, he's been a disaster off the court as well.

        129 players have started at least 15 games this year.

        He's 128th in Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes, better than only Andrew Wiggins.

        He's 128th in Offensive Rating, better than only Nerlens Noel.

        He's 128th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, only better than Josh Smith.

        He's 127th in True Shooting Percentage, just edging out Josh Smith and Rajon Rondo.

        He's 116th in PER.

        He's 112th in Box Plus/Minus.

        He's 111th in Value over Replacement Player.

        He's 80th in Defensive Rating.

        He has the 18th highest Turnover Percentage.

        Charlotte is almost 7 points per game better with him off the court than on it.

        Just a total disaster. By any metric.

        Comment


        • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

          Originally posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
          One thing to keep in mind, Lance has been one of the worst starters in the NBA this season. I'm cool with him coming back on what would be a much more team friendly contract than the one we offered him originally, especially if it meant getting another asset to take him off Charlotte's hands. However, he has been an absolute disaster this season on the court, and my guess is, if Charlotte is really serious about cutting bait already, he's been a disaster off the court as well.

          129 players have started at least 15 games this year.

          He's 128th in Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes, better than only Andrew Wiggins.

          He's 128th in Offensive Rating, better than only Nerlens Noel.

          He's 128th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, only better than Josh Smith.

          He's 127th in True Shooting Percentage, just edging out Josh Smith and Rajon Rondo.

          He's 116th in PER.

          He's 112th in Box Plus/Minus.

          He's 111th in Value over Replacement Player.

          He's 80th in Defensive Rating.

          He has the 18th highest Turnover Percentage.

          Charlotte is almost 7 points per game better with him off the court than on it.

          Just a total disaster. By any metric.
          Holy crap. I knew he had been bad but I didn't know he has been that bad.

          Comment


          • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

            What about Lance coming into camp this season not in basketball shape.

            Comment


            • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

              Originally posted by cdash View Post
              Holy crap. I knew he had been bad but I didn't know he has been that bad.
              http://www.basketball-reference.com/...sc=&offset=100

              Here's the link. I was shocked as well when I was looking at the numbers. I didn't expect him to do well in Charlotte. It just never made sense for either party from a fit perspective. But I damn well never expected it to go this badly.

              Comment


              • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                Originally posted by cdash View Post
                Holy crap. I knew he had been bad but I didn't know he has been that bad.
                Though not in nearly as much detail, I've been saying it all year. When a lot posters talk about Lance's success, they're talking about last season. His regression actually started a bit at the mid point of last year. If you look at the second half of last year, he regressed from a production standpoint month by month from January through April. He played fairly well during the playoffs, but the numbers would suggest that Lance came back to the mean after a hot start to last season (as did the rest of the team)

                The numbers Mackey_Rose provided are pretty damn telling when you look at them from any perspective.
                Last edited by Ace E.Anderson; 12-15-2014, 01:36 PM.

                Comment


                • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                  Originally posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
                  One thing to keep in mind, Lance has been one of the worst starters in the NBA this season. I'm cool with him coming back on what would be a much more team friendly contract than the one we offered him originally, especially if it meant getting another asset to take him off Charlotte's hands. However, he has been an absolute disaster this season on the court, and my guess is, if Charlotte is really serious about cutting bait already, he's been a disaster off the court as well.

                  129 players have started at least 15 games this year.

                  He's 128th in Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes, better than only Andrew Wiggins.

                  He's 128th in Offensive Rating, better than only Nerlens Noel.

                  He's 128th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, only better than Josh Smith.

                  He's 127th in True Shooting Percentage, just edging out Josh Smith and Rajon Rondo.

                  He's 116th in PER.

                  He's 112th in Box Plus/Minus.

                  He's 111th in Value over Replacement Player.

                  He's 80th in Defensive Rating.

                  He has the 18th highest Turnover Percentage.

                  Charlotte is almost 7 points per game better with him off the court than on it.

                  Just a total disaster. By any metric.
                  It's all just spin to fit your narrative.

                  Comment


                  • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                    Originally posted by cdash View Post
                    I'm just going through scenarios, analyzing this from every angle.
                    I know, my friend. I'm just being my optimistic self
                    Originally posted by IrishPacer
                    Empty vessels make the most noise.

                    Comment


                    • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                      Originally posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
                      One thing to keep in mind, Lance has been one of the worst starters in the NBA this season. I'm cool with him coming back on what would be a much more team friendly contract than the one we offered him originally, especially if it meant getting another asset to take him off Charlotte's hands. However, he has been an absolute disaster this season on the court, and my guess is, if Charlotte is really serious about cutting bait already, he's been a disaster off the court as well.

                      129 players have started at least 15 games this year.

                      He's 128th in Win Shares and Win Shares per 48 minutes, better than only Andrew Wiggins.
                      Yeah, when you're 6-17, that tends to happen. If you expand your criteria to players who started 23 games, since that's where Lance is at right now, then Kyle Korver is top 10 in win shares. This is as much a team stat as an individual one.

                      He's 128th in Offensive Rating, better than only Nerlens Noel.

                      He's 128th in Effective Field Goal Percentage, only better than Josh Smith.

                      He's 127th in True Shooting Percentage, just edging out Josh Smith and Rajon Rondo.

                      He's 116th in PER.
                      Yes, he's struggling mightily shooting the ball.

                      He's 112th in Box Plus/Minus.

                      He's 111th in Value over Replacement Player.
                      Respectfully, these two I've never heard of before and I like to think I follow advanced stats pretty well. But apparently Danny Green is top 10 in both of these categories (again, expanded to 23 GS). Plus/minus, again, sounds heavily team/unit influenced to me. Could you tell me more about how these relate to evaluating a player and how they translate to real game situations?

                      He's 80th in Defensive Rating.
                      Again, this is as much team based as individual, since it's not exactly one-on-one basketball out there when it comes to defense. James Harden, for example, is tied for second in Defensive Rating for players that started 23 games or more.

                      He has the 18th highest Turnover Percentage.
                      This one should probably be filtered by position. One on hand you have the higher usage guards and on the other you have the utility bigs plagued by fouls. Turnovers all the same, but different kinds so it helps to differentiate. For example, there are five guards in the top ten. The other five are the utility bigs I mentioned. Stephenson's the fifth guard in the 20-26% usage range; below Wall, Bledsoe, Knight and Teague when it comes to turnovers.

                      Charlotte is almost 7 points per game better with him off the court than on it.
                      Where did you get that one from? 82 games says he's a net positive on the court. Him and Zeller are actually the only net positive players in the starting lineup, which is saying something considering how horrendously he started the season on offense.

                      http://www.82games.com/1415/14CHA6.HTM#onoff

                      Just a total disaster. By any metric.
                      It's fair to say he's been one of the worst starters from an offensive perspective. Yet, despite the worst start to any season in his career, he's managed to be an overall positive contributor on the court. I understand some may interpret the above as me being biased or putting a positive spin on it, that's fine too. But again, my point is to evaluate his entire game, not just his shooting struggles. On that basis, as corroborated by 82games, he's a net positive, which shows that at least one metric (and a pretty important one) doesn't indicate that he's been a total disaster.
                      Last edited by Kuq_e_Zi91; 12-15-2014, 01:57 PM.
                      2015, 2016, 2019 IKL Fantasy Basketball Champions - DC Dreamers

                      Comment


                      • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                        Originally posted by Kuq_e_Zi91 View Post
                        Yeah, when you're 6-17, that tends to happen. If you expand your criteria to players who started 23 games, since that's where Lance is at right now, then Kyle Korver is top 10 in win shares. This is as much a team stat as an individual one.



                        Yes, he's struggling mightily shooting the ball.



                        Respectfully, these two I've never heard of before and I like to think I follow advanced stats pretty well. But apparently Danny Green is top 10 in both of these categories (again, expanded to 23 GS). Plus/minus, again, sounds heavily team/unit influenced to me. Could you tell me more about how these relate to evaluating a player and how they translate to real game situations?



                        Again, this is as much team based as individual, since it's not exactly one-on-one basketball out there when it comes to defense. James Harden, for example, is tied for second in Defensive Rating for players that started 23 games or more.



                        This one should probably be filtered by position. One on hand you have the higher usage guards and on the other you have the utility bigs plagued by fouls. Turnovers all the same, but different kinds so it helps to differentiate. For example, there are five guards in the top ten. The other five are the utility bigs I mentioned. Stephenson's the fifth guard in the 20-26% usage range; below Wall, Bledsoe, Knight and Teague when it comes to turnovers.



                        Where did you get that one from? 82 games says he's a net positive on the court. Him and Zeller are actually the only net positive players in the starting lineup, which is saying something considering how horrendously he started the season on offense.

                        http://www.82games.com/1415/14CHA6.HTM#onoff



                        It's fair to say he's been one of the worst starters from an offensive perspective. Yet, despite the worst start to any season in his career, he's managed to be an overall positive contributor on the court. I understand some may interpret the above as me being biased or putting a positive spin on it, that's fine too. But again, my point is to evaluate his entire game, not just his shooting struggles. On that basis, as corroborated by 82games, he's a net positive, which shows that at least one metric (and a pretty important one) doesn't indicate that he's been a total disaster.
                        http://www.82games.com/1415/14CHA6.HTM

                        He has a net rating of -6.7 per 48 according to 82games.com. The link is attached.

                        Comment


                        • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                          Originally posted by Mackey_Rose View Post
                          http://www.82games.com/1415/14CHA6.HTM

                          He has a net rating of -6.7 per 48 according to 82games.com. The link is attached.
                          Maybe I don't understand the net48 correctly, but I don't believe that's a statement about on vs. off court, which is what you said when you said "Charlotte is almost 7 points per game better with him off the court than on it." It's simply the net on court points averaged over a full game. Since Charlotte is 6-17, they're getting outscored basically every game, sometimes in blowouts. I'm willing to bet the net on court points for every single player is in the negative (especially the heavy minutes players), then translated to per48, it'll still be negative.

                          For example:

                          Jefferson, -10.4
                          Walker, -8.1
                          Henderson, -10.1
                          Williams, -14
                          Zeller, -1

                          I think that's the difference between net48, and the offense and defense on vs off court pts per 100 poss. but I may be mistaken.
                          2015, 2016, 2019 IKL Fantasy Basketball Champions - DC Dreamers

                          Comment


                          • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                            I don't know what we're trying to prove with small sample size statistics, when there's a much larger sample from Lance's time with the Pacers.

                            Originally posted by Ace E.Anderson View Post
                            The numbers Mackey_Rose provided are pretty damn telling when you look at them from any perspective.
                            I'm sure I can find a 20+ game stretch of Hibbert from last year that was equally "telling". Does that prove anything? Other than don't trust small sample sizes.
                            Last edited by wintermute; 12-15-2014, 02:17 PM.

                            Comment


                            • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                              Originally posted by cdash View Post
                              Fast forward a few months, and they have very much found something that has scared them away. It's not like their roster has changed a great deal since they signed Lance, so you can't blame it all on "fit". The Indiana experience combined with the Charlotte catastrophe is going to give a lot of teams pause.
                              Actually, their roster has changed.....they lost McBob, Rollover and CDR...their best 3 pt shooters. They aren't great....but their best 3pt shooter that can spread the floor is Gary Neal and Marvin Williams.
                              Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

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                              • Re: All things Lance Stephenson thread for the next year or so

                                Originally posted by wintermute View Post
                                I don't know what we're trying to prove with small sample size statistics, when there's a much larger sample from Lance's time with the Pacers.



                                I'm sure I can find a 20+ game stretch of Hibbert from last year that was equally "telling". Does that prove anything? Other than don't trust small sample sizes.
                                The context of the conversation is whether or not it's a good idea to re-acquire Lance from the Hornets. When talking about acquiring a player from another team, does it not make sense to look at how well they are or are not playing?

                                Comment

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