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Thread: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

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    Member rabid's Avatar
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    Default Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Apologies if this hasn't been posted. It's nice to read a somewhat optimistic article after the past few weeks of bad news.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/p...y-to-play-for/

    Indiana Pacers star Paul George suffered a horrifying injury on Friday night in a scrimmage with his teammates on the United States national team. The good news is that surgery on George’s right leg was successful, and he’s in admirable spirits. Furthermore, George’s history of staying relatively healthy in the past could portend a quicker and more complete recovery.

    Still, George is expected to miss all of next season. The Pacers went 56-26 last season with George, a total that is only occasionally good enough to translate into a title. The NBA is not a very forgiving sport; any and all weaknesses are exposed over the course of a full season: Losing George would almost almost certainly take them out of title contention for next year.

    But like the Chicago Bulls — who adapted around a season-ending injury to Derrick Rose last year — the Pacers are a well-coached and well-managed team in a reasonably good salary cap situation. That means they could maintain respectability next season even without George — or rebuild for 2015-16 and beyond with him.

    We can consider what the Pacers might look like next season assuming that George doesn’t play but they otherwise don’t make changes to their roster. I’ll do that by running a projection based on the technique described here, which evaluates players based on their age and performance over the past three regular seasons. In contrast to the previous article, which used a metric calledstatistical-plus minus, I used ESPN’s NBA Real Plus Minus, which better accounts for a player’s defense — a key consideration whenever you’re talking about the Pacers. (The projection for Croatian Damjan Rudez, the recent Pacers pick up who has not played in the NBA, assumes that he’ll be halfway between league-average and replacement level.)


    This method projects the Pacers to a 44-38 record, which last year would have translated into a No. 5 or No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference. It assumes the Pacers will stand pat with their current roster, but they may have the opportunity to sign another rotation player by using a disabled player exception to the salary cap.

    Obviously, there’s a huge amount of uncertainty around this forecast. An unselfish roster like Indiana’s might seem better equipped to adapt to the loss of any one player. But the Pacers already had a lot of trouble generating shots with George in the lineup — it will be even harder without him. And while the Pacers should still be strong on defense, the ferocious effort they put forth on the defensive side of the ball could vary as the team’s spirits do.

    The Pacers’ other option would be sacrifice the season by dealing Roy Hibbert and David West. That would leave them with only George, point guard George Hill, Rudez and Ian Mahimni signed for the 2015-16 season — a salary commitment of just $30 million total. With cap room and draft picks and good coaching and scouting, there would be the opportunity to build another very good lineup around George, who would be just 25 years old at the start of the 2015-16 season. The injury was an unfair blow to George, but if he can recover, he and the Pacers still have plenty to look forward to.


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    Last edited by rabid; 08-05-2014 at 08:18 PM.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    I'd rather deal for proven players. A star caliber PF and PG would put us back into contention. Drafting is always dangerous. We're gonna have 1st round picks anyways. And without Paul this season, we're probably looking at 10-20 next Summer draft. Could get someone good there. But I wouldn't deal any of our guys for a supposed sure thing top 5 pick. Takes time to develop those guys, and we don't need another Lance scenario where someone bolts.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Is this the same Nate Silver that does Presidential Election Prediction?
    Ash from Army of Darkness: Good...Bad...I'm the guy with the gun.

    This is David West, he is the Honey Badger, West just doesn't give a *****....he's pretty bad *ss cuz he has no regard for any other Player or Team whatsoever.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by CableKC View Post
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    Is this the same Nate Silver that does Presidential Election Prediction?
    Yeah.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    I'd rather deal for proven players. A star caliber PF and PG would put us back into contention. Drafting is always dangerous. We're gonna have 1st round picks anyways. And without Paul this season, we're probably looking at 10-20 next Summer draft. Could get someone good there. But I wouldn't deal any of our guys for a supposed sure thing top 5 pick. Takes time to develop those guys, and we don't need another Lance scenario where someone bolts.
    Are you still trying to find a way to compete this season?

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by rabid View Post
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    The Pacers’ other option would be sacrifice the season by dealing Roy Hibbert and David West. That would leave them with only George, point guard George Hill, Rudez and Ian Mahimni signed for the 2015-16 season — a salary commitment of just $30 million total. With cap room and draft picks and good coaching and scouting, there would be the opportunity to build another very good lineup around George, who would be just 25 years old at the start of the 2015-16 season. The injury was an unfair blow to George, but if he can recover, he and the Pacers still have plenty to look forward to.

    I love option B. I'm behind the Pacers either way, but this is what should happen IMO.

    With option A, hey... maybe Rudez will be Peja Stojacovic and Solo Hill will be a mini Lance or something. It's not likely, but it's possible.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    I hear "We should trade West and Roy," but what contending team has young pieces or draft picks to give us?

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by PR07 View Post
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    I hear "We should trade West and Roy," but what contending team has young pieces or draft picks to give us?
    OKC has young players stashed on the bench and Houston has the Pelicans first rounder. I think, if people are thinking trade, the team they need to look at is Boston. They need to give Rondo something to stay for, they have a ridiculous number of draft picks, they have no defense in their frontcourt, and they've got some nice young players. I don't want to turn this into the trade forum so I won't go into anything more than that.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    My personal opinion is that this year will be deemed a success if we can build a foundation so when Paul George becomes healthy we can turn into a threat again.

    Measuring this season by wins and losses is pretty pointless IMO.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by Grimp View Post
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    I'd rather deal for proven players. A star caliber PF and PG would put us back into contention.
    and how exactly do you think we can get those kinds of players via trades? with roy? after last season we would be lucky enough to find someone willing to take him let alone give a star caliber player in return. hill? good luck finding someone to take him with that awful contract. west? he will be 34 next season.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by joew8302 View Post
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    My personal opinion is that this year will be deemed a success if we can build a foundation so when Paul George becomes healthy we can turn into a threat again.

    Measuring this season by wins and losses is pretty pointless IMO.
    exactly. as much as i dislike tanking from fans' pov, i'm ok with that. i'd rather be really awful for a year than be mediocre for years.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Pacers could always tank, and flip the high draft pick to PHX for Dragic. If I'm Larry Bird, i'm definetly taking this opportunity to seriously evaluate the Talent I have and make changes. He basically has 50 games to decide if Roy Hibbert should be here going forward. If David West should be here going forward. We have an athletic weakness with this team, our bigs are old and or slow. The have to seriously consider doing a mini-rebuild to get some athletic bigs here who will rebound and clean up the paint. I'd love to see a deal made for Rudy Gobert or McGee. Both the Jazz and the Nuggets need a wise and strong vet like David West to teach them how to win just like he did here in Indiana.
    Last edited by graphic-er; 08-06-2014 at 08:51 AM.
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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    They could be really good defensive, especially if they sign Marion. I could absolutely see 44-38 with a 5/6 seed.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by rabid View Post
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    ...(also can someone finally explain to me how to paste a tweet into a post on PD and actually have it show up properly?)
    At the bottom of a tweet you will see the retweet sign and the numbers, then the favorites and the numbers, then "three dots". Click the three dots and the option to "embed tweet", click on it and a pop up will open with text highlighted starting with blockquote. Just copy and paste that directly into your post.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Just stumbled across this line in a CBS sports article, made me a little sick to think about.

    "George is the league's only 20-points-per-game scorer who almost always
    guards the other team's best player. With George gone, who's going to guard LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant?"


    http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...-to-the-pacers

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Honestly would rather want a top draft pick, and trading David West at this point and then build off that.
    Why so SERIOUS

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Adding Marion might push the Pacers to an 8th seed. I'd rather the Pacers get a lottery pick, and get a quality young player to play next to PG. There's nothing wrong with that approach. No Lance and No PG = non playoff team.

    I'd even trade West/Scola and Cope by the deadline for expirings/rookie contracts/picks. No need to blow it up. I'm fine with keeping Hibbert and Hill.

    The worst thing the Pacers can do is to sell this team as a playoff team. Even if they get to the playoffs, it's out in the first round. So what's the freaking point?
    With the #3 pick in the 2015 draft, your Indiana Pacers!

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by graphic-er View Post
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    Pacers could always tank, and flip the high draft pick to PHX for Dragic. If I'm Larry Bird, i'm definetly taking this opportunity to seriously evaluate the Talent I have and make changes. He basically has 50 games to decide if Roy Hibbert should be here going forward. If David West should be here going forward. We have an athletic weakness with this team, our bigs are old and or slow. The have to seriously consider doing a mini-rebuild to get some athletic bigs here who will rebound and clean up the paint. I'd love to see a deal made for Rudy Gobert or McGee. Both the Jazz and the Nuggets need a wise and strong vet like David West to teach them how to win just like he did here in Indiana.


    Morris twins are way better. Sign both as free agents next Summer. Next Summer we have money coming off the books, and 3 key starters entering the final years of their deals. With two who could opt out on those final years.

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by Speed View Post
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    Just stumbled across this line in a CBS sports article, made me a little sick to think about.

    "George is the league's only 20-points-per-game scorer who almost always
    guards the other team's best player. With George gone, who's going to guard LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant?"


    http://www.cbssports.com/nba/eye-on-...-to-the-pacers
    Good question, but Lebron is straight up scared of attacking Hibbert. Melo probably isn't, but I'm not scared of the Knicks. Durant, well he averages 33.3 ppg against Paul.....

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    Default Re: Nate Silver: Pacers And George Still Have Plenty To Play For

    Quote Originally Posted by Sparhawk View Post
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    Adding Marion might push the Pacers to an 8th seed. I'd rather the Pacers get a lottery pick, and get a quality young player to play next to PG. There's nothing wrong with that approach. No Lance and No PG = non playoff team.

    I'd even trade West/Scola and Cope by the deadline for expirings/rookie contracts/picks. No need to blow it up. I'm fine with keeping Hibbert and Hill.

    The worst thing the Pacers can do is to sell this team as a playoff team. Even if they get to the playoffs, it's out in the first round. So what's the freaking point?
    No Lance or No PG could also equal a team that makes the playoffs but really shouldn't be there... one thing I will say about getting a lottery pick, hopefully it will not take our players out of a winning mindset, because no matter who we get that could set our team back for years to come.
    Why so SERIOUS

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