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Thread: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

  1. #226
    Administrator Unclebuck's Avatar
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    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Another thing to mention is how valuable PG was and is. With the subtraction of Lance, (no matter what you think of Lance) I think everyone can agree, that without Lance PG becomes much more important to the pacers team. Loss of PG now probably means the pacers have 20 fewer wins next season. if lance was re-signed I think the loss of PG probably would mean more like 13 or 14 fewer wins. (just using the number of wins to demonstrate my point)

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  3. #227
    Member sav's Avatar
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    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by johndozark View Post
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    I saw this over at Indy Cornrows and it started my thinking about our top defensive starters:

    "The starting backcourt will consist of GHill and two of: Watson, Stuckey, Miles, and Solo. I, personally, want to see Watson start at point with GHill at the 2 and Solo at the 3. The defense of a Watson/GHill/Solo/West/Hibbert starting five would still be a top 5 defense. Then, Stuckey would be the backup PG and run the bench units like Lance did last year and would be surrounded by shooters like Miles, Cope, and Rudez.

    "Don't tell me the sky is the limit when there are footprints on the moon!"
    by jdsdrummer on Aug 2, 2014 | 4:12 PM"

    Taking off from jdsdrummer's defensively oriented starters, we would have depth like this:

    Watson GHill/Stuckey/Sloan
    GHill Miles/Stuckey
    SHill Rudez/Copeland
    West Allen/Scola
    Hibbert Mahinmi/Allen/Whittington

    Although Paul George's injury is a huge loss, I don't see this lineup as at all hopeless. I think we should at least make it to second round. And who knows what might develop?
    You had me until your next to last sentence. We'll be lucky to make it to the second round of the playoffs, heck, we'll be lucky to make the playoffs. I see this as a borderline playoff team. But like you said in your final sentence, who knows what might develop?

  4. #228
    Member habart30's Avatar
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    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Heisenberg View Post
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    we've got a shot to still make the playoffs but in no way are we winning a round. we'll be pretty massive underdogs.
    The playoffs start in 10 months dude. We don't even know what this team is going to look like yet... How you're already predicting playoff odds for a completely undetermined situation is extremely mind boggling and totally falsified.

  5. #229

    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by habart30 View Post
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    The playoffs start in 10 months dude. We don't even know what this team is going to look like yet... How you're already predicting playoff odds for a completely undetermined situation is extremely mind boggling and totally falsified.
    It's pretty clear that his comment was in response to the "what we have now is pretty much what we will have" scenario, with the lineups and rotations as specified in the post just before his post. With that in mind, we would know who we have on the team.

    We have seen what happens to an NBA team that loses an all-star to injury and keeps most other things in tact (D Rose, Kobe as examples). When you add losing Lance to that, it's hard to make a reasonable argument how we'd be much over 0.500, without some manna falling from heaven, like Solo being a dynamic scorer and defender, Hill becoming an aggressive scorer, or Hibbert finding some beast mode gear and staying in it. We started last year 33-7 and finished 23-19, so we weren't much over 0.500 for the last half of the season, with PG and Lance.

    I'd like to be all rosy too, but it's not crazy to admit that an awful lot of things have to go surprisingly, exceptionally well for us to have a contending team this year. I hope they do. I bet that Heisenberg does too.
    Last edited by Slick Pinkham; 08-04-2014 at 05:27 PM.
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  7. #230
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    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    I saw an article commenting on teams that lost their top player and had been a top team the previous year and how far they dropped. Almost all of them had a dramatic drop
    out of the playoffs. Someone want to research that?
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  8. #231

    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by owl View Post
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    I saw an article commenting on teams that lost their top player and had been a top team the previous year and how far they dropped. Almost all of them had a dramatic drop
    out of the playoffs. Someone want to research that?
    Just a quick look:

    Rockets lost Yao for ‘09-‘10, went from 53-29 to 42-40

    Bulls lost DRose, went from 50-16 in a strike-shortened season (by percentage corresponds to 62-20) to 45-37

    Lakers lost Kobe, went from 45-37 to 27-55

    Denver lost then-promising Antonio McDyess in 2002, went from 27-55 to 17-65

    Bill Walton broke his foot, Blazers went from 58-24 to 45-35

    Jordan broke his foot in his second year, team went from 38-44 to 30-52

    Jordan left to play baseball, team went from 57-25 to 55-27 (seems to buck the trend, Pippen scored 22 ppg)
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

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  10. #232
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    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    Just a quick look:

    Rockets lost Yao for ‘09-‘10, went from 53-29 to 42-40

    Bulls lost DRose, went from 50-16 in a strike-shortened season (by percentage corresponds to 62-20) to 45-37

    Lakers lost Kobe, went from 45-37 to 27-55

    Denver lost then-promising Antonio McDyess in 2002, went from 27-55 to 17-65

    Bill Walton broke his foot, Blazers went from 58-24 to 45-35

    Jordan broke his foot in his second year, team went from 38-44 to 30-52

    Jordan left to play baseball, team went from 57-25 to 55-27 (seems to buck the trend, Pippen scored 22 ppg)
    A few others I remember, one distinctly, the others I had to look up.

    In 1999-2000 the Heat were 52-30. They lost 'Zo except for 13 games the next year and went 50-32.

    In 1996-7 we (Knicks) were 57-25. The next year we lost Patrick after 26 games, went 43-39 and made the 2nd round. We were 15-11 when he went down and played .500 the rest of the way.

    In 1987-88 the Celtics went 57-25, the next year they lost Bird for all but 6 games and went 42-30.

    EDIT: Not sure how I forgot this one. In 1990-91 the Lakers were 58-24. The next year they lost Magic and went 43-39.

    All of those teams made the playoffs.

    I see PG as being worth 10-15 games myself. I have a harder time gauging how that works on top of Stephenson leaving. But 56-win teams are not a one-man-band unless the band is Lebron. I think playoffs are a legit possibility.
    Last edited by DisplacedKnick; 08-04-2014 at 06:00 PM.
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  12. #233

    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    in the examples so far by DK and me, and extra games dropped: 11, 17, 18, 10, 13, 8, 2, 2, 14, 15

    average shift = 11 more games lost (a strike season, in the Bulls case, was pro-rated to 82 games)



    History says 56-26 last year becomes about 45-37 next year, more often than not. That's when losing your best player, and this team has lost more than that, considering Lance's departure. 41-41 seems pretty darn realistic, unfortunately.
    The poster "pacertom" since this forum began (and before!). I changed my name here to "Slick Pinkham" in honor of the imaginary player That Bobby "Slick" Leonard picked late in the 1971 ABA draft (true story!)

  13. #234
    Member Phree Refill's Avatar
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    Default Re: 180 Turn: 2014-2015 Season Expectations and Thoughts

    Quote Originally Posted by Slick Pinkham View Post
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    41-41 seems pretty darn realistic, unfortunately.
    What?! .500 finish you say? I must begin preparations....

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